7:30 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Ohio State -3.0, Total: 54.0
A byproduct of the BIG 10’s expansion is that we get to see powerhouse programs battle each other more frequently than ever before, with tonight’s showdown in Eugene serving as the biggest yet as the (No. 2) Ohio State Buckeyes battle the (No. 3) Oregon Ducks under the bright lights of Autzen Stadium in the Pacific Northwest. Despite utterly owning the BIG 10 with four consecutive conference championships between 2017 and 2020, including an appearance in the 2021 National Final, the tide finally against Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 in BIG 10), who have since dropped three consecutive encounters to their bitter rivals from Ann Arbor, going trophyless as a result. And if that wasn’t bad enough, watching Michigan celebrate a National Championship last January was the last straw for (Head Coach) Ryan Day and many of his charges in Columbus, as the Buckeyes have returned with a vengeance. Indeed, Day went all-out in the offseason bringing in (former mentor) Chip Kelly to coordinate the offense, while going on a shopping spree in the Transfer Portal, adding four of its most notable talents, including (Quarterback) Will Howard, (Tailback) Quinshon Judkins, (Center) Seth McLaughlin, and (Safety) Caleb Downs, from Kansas State, Ole Miss, and Alabama respectively. Furthermore, a slew of veteran talent opted to spurn the NFL and remain in Ohio, including (Senior Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson, (Receiver) Emeka Egbuka, and (Senior Defensive End) J.T. Tuimoloau, who are back in effort to break the trophy drought for OSU. So, with all that in mind, how have the Buckeyes performed thus far, you ask? Well, everything has proceeded according to plan thus far, as Day’s troops are averaging a whopping 46.0 points (4th in FBS) on a robust 510.2 total yards (equating to 7.7 yards per play!), while shipping a mere 6.8 points, the fewest in the country at this juncture. Howard (pictured below) has made a seamless transition from Manhattan to Columbus, completing an efficient 71.5% of his throws for 1,248 yards, twelve touchdowns and three interceptions, while rushing for another four scores to boot, while Judkins as adjusted to life in the BIG 10 nicely with a team-best 468 yards rushing and five touchdowns of his own. Even against one of the better defenses in the league, Ohio State was undeterred in last weekend’s 35-7 victory over (No. 21) Iowa, racing out to a 35-0 lead before conceding a consolation score late in the affair. The hosts outgained the Hawkeyes 412-226 in total yardage, 21-10 in first downs, and managed to win the takeaway battle 3-2 to boot. Howard completed a surgical 21-of-25 passes for 209 yards and four touchdowns, three of which came courtesy of Egbuka, who reeled in nine receptions for seventy-one yards. His freshman running mate, Jeremiah Smith, who has been a big-play dynamo throughout the campaign (19.7 yards per catch!), continued his exploits with four catches for eighty-nine yards and a house call of his own. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles’ unit were nothing short of dominant against the birds, relegating the visitors to 110 passing yards, with four sacks, nine tackles for loss, a pair of forced fumbles, and an interception from (Sophomore Cornerback) Davison Igbinosun. This all appears to be (NIL) money well spent by the Buckeyes, though they will ultimately be judged by how they handle challenges like this trip to Eugene, which will go a long way towards deciding the victor of the BIG 10.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may be undefeated straight-up, but they are 3-2 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 0.73 units. Of course, when you find yourselves as sizable favorites week in and week out, the probability of continuing to cover the spread becomes more and more difficult, as all but one of their five games have featured a line below 23.5 points. Under the leadership of Day, this is a program that is 36-30-3 versus the spread since he was promoted to the full-time gig back in 2019, including 11-8-3 as a favorite away from Columbus, and 27-17-1 in conference play. Looking at this particular contest, the Buckeyes have won nine of ten all-time meetings with the Ducks, though this is only their second tripe to Eugene and the first since 1967. However, it should be noted that there most recent encounter, a 35-28 loss at Ohio Stadium back in 2021, is the only blemish in this series. The hosts fell behind early, trailing 21-7 early in the third quarter after getting gashed for a 77-yard touchdown run, though managed to cut the deficit to seven points midway through the fourth period. However, that would be as close as they would get in this prolific affair that saw the two teams combine for a staggering 1,117 total yards, 612 of which coming courtesy of Day’s lot. Of those still remaining on the roster, the aforementioned Henderson enjoyed the most notable performance from that afternoon, amassing sixty-six yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown to close the gap in the final stanza. With that being said, it is difficult to ignore the subplot of Kelly returning to Oregon, where he went 46-7 (.868) from 2009 to 2012, earning AP Coach of the Year honors in 2010 and leading the Ducks to three straight conference titles and an appearance in the 2010 National Championship Game. The public thinks he may prove to be an x-factor in tonight’s affair, as a commanding 80% of all wagers placed upon the spread are sporting scarlet and grey, while an even larger share (91%) of all the money being wagered has followed suit. On the injury front, the Buckeyes are largely healthy with no significant absences to speak of. Looking ahead, Ohio State will enjoy a bye week after this trip to the Pacific Northwest, before playing host to Nebraska, followed by a seismic trip to Happy Valley against (No. 4) Penn State.
Meanwhile, Oregon (5-0, 2-0 in BIG 10) are also undefeated after a whirlwind offseason in which they tapped into the Transfer Portal once again in lieu of their historic transition to the BIG 10 after spending the previous fifty-six years in the PAC-12. (Head Coach) Dan Lanning has done a commendable job of building up the Ducks for such a move, though it should be noted that the road has been much tougher than most could have expected. These birds may undefeated, folks, though most of their wins have been closer than initially projected; UO struggled to get going in the opener against Idaho (24-14), before very nearly avoiding a major upset at the hands of Boise State (37-34). Back-to-back road games at (bitter rival) Oregon State (49-14) and UCLA (34-13) offered an opportunity to course correct, though this has continued to be a team that has enjoyed playing with their food a little too much. So, what in the name of Mike Belotti is going on with Puddles & Co, you ask? Well, consistently renovating the roster via the portal isn’t guaranteed to net high gains every year, which seems to be the case for this current Oregon group, particularly on the offensive side of the football, where they have been far from clinical. (Oklahoma Transfer) Dillon Gabriel is the latest veteran quarterback to make the move to Eugene, suiting up for his third different school in four years. The sixth-year senior has completed an efficient 77.8% of his throws (1st in FBS) for 1,449 yards on 8.7 yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another three scores to boot. Coupled with some misfires in the red zone, the Ducks haven’t been as prolific scoring as their sizable 458.6 total yards per game would suggest, averaging 35.0 points (31st in FBS). Furthermore, Gabriel (pictured below) has led an attack that has committed more turnovers (6) than their teammates have takeaways (5), including two in last weekend’s 31-10 victory over Michigan State. Lanning’s lot scored the first thirty-one games of the affair, beginning with a 9-yard trot into the end zone from Gabriel followed by a rushing score courtesy of (Junior Tailback) Jordan James midway through the second quarter. The Spartans would add ten consolation points in the final period, but that would be about it in this lopsided tilt. The hosts owned significant advantages in total yards (477-250), rushing yards (213-59), and first downs (25-16), while converting 6-of-12 third downs in comparison to just 2-of-12 for the visitors. Again, the final score would have been more reflective of the statistical imbalance if not for a pair of red-zone interceptions tossed by Gabriel in the first half; the former came at the 1-yard line after a 10-play, 79-yard drive, while the latter occurred two possessions later at his opponent’s 11-yard marker. Apart from those miscues, Gabriel completed 20-of-32 passes for 257 yards and a pair of touchdowns, rushing for another, while James ran wild for 166 yards and that aforementioned score on twenty-four carries. (Junior Receiver) Tez Johnson hauled in ten receptions for eighty-four yards and a touchdown of his own, while (Senior Edge-Rusher) Jordan Burch logged 2.5 sacks a recovered fumble in a strong effort by the defense. Now, we’ll see if they can play a cleaner game against a much tougher opponent, for Lanning will be preaching that those mistakes are likely to prove fatal against Ohio State, who as we covered earlier, are looking every bit like the juggernaut that they have been billed to be.
From a betting perspective, Oregon may be undefeated straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread thus far (1-4), parlaying to a net loss of 3.09 units, making them one of the least-profitable teams in the polls. Similar to the Buckeyes, they’ve faced some sizeable spreads, all of which coming in at 17.5 points or larger. Under the direction of Lanning, this is a program that is 20-12 versus the spread since his arrival in 2022, including 13-7 against conference opponents, and 0-2 since their transition to the BIG 10. With that being said, they have been a home underdog just once during that period of time and the came out just fine; the Ducks were 2-point dogs at home against (No. 10) Utah two years ago and managed to upset the Utes outright at Autzen Stadium. It should also be noted that UO is 8-1-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers versus BIG 10 opponents. Furthermore, this is a program that has covered TEN of their last fifteen encounters versus conference opposition ranked in the top 10, which is obviously the case tonight. Unfortunately, there are some trends working against them too. First, Oregon has failed to cover five consecutive contests after yielding fewer than twenty points in the previous game. Second, they have dropped four straight outings ATS after a SU win of 20+ points. Lastly, and this is the most important, Puddles & Co are just 1-5 ATS in their past six games as an underdog, with all three of those trends proving relevant tonight. As we covered earlier, the most recent meeting between these schools on the gridiron came three years ago, when the Ducks stormed into Columbus as 14-point underdogs, winning the affair outright (35-28). On the injury front, there are no significant absences to report. Looking ahead, Oregon will travel to West Lafayette next weekend for a showdown with Purdue, before returning to the Pacific Northwest for a visit from (No. 23) Illinois, followed by a trip to Ann Arbor against (No. 24) Michigan.