1:00 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Ravens -7.0, Total: 51.5
Week Six rolls on with the Battle of the Beltway, as the surging, upstart Washington Commanders make the short trip to Baltimore where the Ravens appear to have found their groove after a slow start to the campaign. Arguably the most pleasant surprise in the league at this point is the resurrection of the Commanders (4-1, 1st in NFC East), who are off to their best start since 1999. A year after the franchise was sold to a group headed by Josh Harris, the fruits of a renovated organization have been baring plenty of fruit, as Washington has strung together four consecutive victories by an average margin of 14.3 points. So, what in the name of Doug Williams has happened in Landover, you ask? Well, first and foremost, the club appears to have hit a home run with the hires of (General Manager) Adam Peters and (Head Coach) Dan Quinn, the latter who after a largely successful run with the Falcons (2015-2019) that included an NFC Title in 2016, spent the last three seasons directing the Cowboys’ stifling defense. Bravo to the Commanders for poaching a key part of the success from their bitter division rival, while Quinn in turn did a brilliant job of filling out his coaching staff, with the most notable addition being that of (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury. With the decision-makers in place, the next for Washington was the Draft, where they hit another homer with the selection of (Rookie Quarterback) Jayden Daniels, who is well on his way to not just securing Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, but perhaps MVP as well. Simply put, this would be quite a story since there hasn’t been anyone to claim BOTH awards since the legendary Jim Brown did so back in 1957. Daniels (pictured below) has led an attack that leads the NFL in points scored (31.0) and third down percentage (51.7%), while ranking second in rushing offense (178.4), and fourth in total yards (405.0), with the young star pacing the league with a surgical 77.1% completion percentage. Their success really has started on the ground, with four different players rushing for over 100 yards thus far, with Daniels playing a major role in this regard, churning out 300 yards and four scores on a healthy 5.3 yards per carry. All of that was on display in last weekend’s 34-13 victory over the Browns, who at the very least own a defense that ranked number one overall a year ago. Well, Daniels & Co had little trouble cracking the code in this one, outgaining Cleveland 434-212 in total yardage, 215-104 in rushing yards, and 236-141 in passing yards. Despite losing the turnover battle (2-1), the difference in this affair was that one offense had little trouble staying on the field, while the other, well, not so much. Quinn’s troops converted 8-of-17 third downs and both of their attempts on fourth down, while the visiting side was a dreadful 1-of-13 on third, and 2-of-3 on fourth. Daniels completed 14-of-25 passes for 238 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while needing just eleven carries to amass eighty-two rushing yards. (Veteran Tailback) Austi Ekeler added ninety-seven yards from scrimmage, while (veteran Wideout) Terry McLaurin hauled in four receptions for 112 yards, with (Sophomore Receiver) Dyami Brown reeling in a 41-yard touchdown just before halftime. Defensively, the Commanders absolutely LIVED in the backfield, sacking Deshaun Watson SEVEN times and pressuring him on eleven occasions, which parlays to a whopping 28.9% of his drop backs. (Veteran Linebacker) Frankie Luvu, who was added in Free Agency continues to impress within Quinn’s scheme, totaling seven tackles, 2.5 sacks, a fumble recovery.
From a betting perspective, the Commanders are both 4-1 straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 2.64 units. It has been quite a while since this team has covered four games in row, with a particular stretch from the 2021 campaign being the most recent example. With that being said, Washington was an underdog in each of those outings, while they have been favored in half this current stretch. Over the course of his career, Quinn is a commanding 15-4 versus the spread as an underdog coming off a SU win (including 2-0 this year), which is the case this afternoon. Furthermore, this is a team that has covered SIX straight games when coming off a double-digit ATS win, while going 8-1 ATS in their last nine contests off a SU non-division victory and facing a non-division opponent fresh off a SU win, with both trends also relevant today. However, they have failed to cover four games in a row versus teams above .500, which is true this week. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams may be neighbors due to proximity, but they have only met seven times in their respective history, with Baltimore leading the all-time series 4-3. When they last crossed paths in the wild and crazy COVID year of 2020, the Commanders, who we then called The Artists formerly known as the Football Team fell to a 31-17 defeat, though neither team managed to cover the spread which ended in a tie for Washington (+14). There aren’t many players left from that one, folks, though it should be noted that the aforementioned McLaurin put in a strong showing with ten receptions on fourteen targets for 118 yards. The public appears to be drinking the burgundy Kool-Aid, as approximately 57% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with Daniels & Co, though the money is telling a different story, with only 43% of all the green being wagered following suit. On the injury front, (third-year Tailback) Brian Robinson has been dealing with a bulky knee for a few weeks now and is listed as questionable, though he has yet to miss any time, rushing for eighteen yards and a pair of scores as the goal-line option last weekend against Cleveland. Looking ahead, the Commanders return to FedEx Field for back-to-back home games against the Panthers and Bears, with that latter affair serving as a showdown between the first two picks in last Spring’s NFL Draft as well as the past two recipients of the Heisman Memorial Trophy.
Meanwhile, after dropping their first two games of the campaign, the Ravens (3-2, T-1st in AFC North) appear to have rounded back into the form that saw them secure the number one seed in the AFC last season. For Baltimore, this shift has come down to simply remembering their identity, which is that of a running football team. Sure, with (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson at the helm, there is always an urge to unleash his arm and legs, but when this group decides to keep the ball on the ground, they are one of the toughest in the league to deal with. Case in point: in their two losses to kick off the season, (Head Coach) John Harbaugh’s charges averaged 168.0 rushing yards on 29.5 attempts, though in their three victories have turned up the volume with 240.0 yards per game on 37.7 carries, going from 5.7 yards per attempt to a staggering 6.4 along the way. During this stretch, Jackson has ripped off 196 yards and a pair of touchdowns on a healthy 6.1 yards per carry, while (veteran Tailback) Derrick Henry has found the fountain of youth in the Chesapeake Bay, logging 442 yards on 6.9 yards per rush and five total scores during this win streak. After spending the first eight years of his career in Tennessee, including four Pro Bowls and a pair of rushing titles, Henry (pictured below alongside Jackson) came to the Ravens in search of a Lombardi Trophy, which you have to think is obtainable when they play like this. However, the biggest reason why committing to the run is so imperative for these blackbirds is because it allows their beleaguered defense to stay off the field. A year after shipping the fewest points in the league (16.5) and ranking first in takeaways (31), the club bid farewell to (former Defensive Coordinator) Mike Macdonald, who is new leading the Seahawks, with this side of the football very much a work in progress. Under the direction of (new DC) Zach Orr, who was promoted from Inside Linebackers Coach, the defense has allowed 25.2 points per game (26th Overall) on 340.6 total yards (19th Overall), with the passing game proving to be the culprit. Opposing quarterbacks have shredded Baltimore through the air for 280.2 yards (31st Overall) on 6.9 net yards per attempt (27th Overall), with nine touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. Furthermore, this unit has had a difficult time getting off the field, yielding a 42.6% conversion rate on third down (21st Overall), while giving up a red zone touchdown percentage of 66.7% (25th Overall). These flaws were on full display in last weekend’s wild 41-38 overtime victory at Cincinnati, an affair which saw the two sides combine for 962 total yards, including 740 passing yards and nine touchdowns from the two quarterbacks. Trailing 31-21 early int he fourth quarter, Jackson led a pair of touchdown drives in the final stanza, before a crucial interception courtesy of Marlon Humphrey set up the game-tying 56-yard field goal from (perennial Pro-Bowler) Justin Tucker to send the contest into OT. From there, the Ravens dodged a major bullet after fumbling away the opening possession, as the Bengals shanked the would-be game-winner from fifty-three yards. Henry would take the very next play FIFTY-ONE yards, followed by a chip shot from Tucker to win the game. When it was all said and done, Jackson completed 26-of-42 passes for 348 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for another fifty-five yards on twelve carries, buoyed by Henry, who until that overtime jaunt, had been corralled for forty-one yards on fourteen rushes and a touchdown. (Sophomore Receiver) Zay Flowers hauled in seven catches for 111 yards, while (Sophomore Tight End) Isaiah Likely accounted for two of Jackson’s passing scores.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens are 3-2 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 0.73 units. This three-game streak of covers matches their best run since 2020, when they rode the wave of seven straight ATS wins into the playoffs. Under the leadership of Harbaugh, this is a team that is 149-125-12 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2008. It should be noted that this is a team that has generally responded well after giving up a lot of points, as Baltimore has covered four consecutive contests after shipping 30+ points, which is the case this afternoon. Furthermore, the blackbirds are 8-0 ATS in their eight games immediately preceding an appearance on Monday Night Football and are 14-2 ATS in their past sixteen outings following a division road game and facing a non-division opponent. On the flipside, they are 3-11 ATS in the month of October against NFC opposition. Looking at this particular matchup, we covered the slight advantage that the Ravens hold in the all-time series (4-3), while Jackson introduced himself well in his first meeting with their neighbors in Landover. In that aforementioned 31-17 affair from four years ago, the two-time MVP completed an efficient 14-of-21 passes for 193 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while rushing for another fifty-three yards with all but three of those yards coming off a 50-yard jaunt to the house midway through the second quarter. On the injury front, there are a number of players listed as questionable to participate in this afternoon’s battle, including (veteran Left Tackle) Ronnie Stanley (toe) and Humphrey, who was limited throughout the week of practice due to sore ankle. Looking ahead, the Ravens will be flying south for a trip to the Gulf Coast where the Buccaneers wait for a primetime Monday night clash, followed by their annual pilgrimage to Northern Ohio to face their bitter rivals, the Browns.