8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Bills -1.5, Total: 40.5
Week Six comes to a close with bitter rivals renewing acquaintances with both sides in desperate need of a win, as the circus that is the New York Jets plays host to the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium on Monday Night Football. Though it is only five games into the campaign, this season has very much been the tale of two halves for the Bills (3-2, 1st in AFC East), who after winning their first three games have proceeded to drop the following two, leaving us to pose the question: just who are these Bills? Are they the four-time reigning division champions who preached addition by subtraction throughout the offseason and kicked things off by strolling by the likes of the Cardinals (34-28), Dolphins (31-10), and Jaguars (47-10)? Or are they the side that got steamrolled a week later by the Ravens (35-10) before coming up short at the Texans (23-20)? As always, the true answer is in all likelihood a bit of both, though Buffalo nonetheless appears to be on notice after suffering back-to-back defeats for the first time in thirteen games. So, what in the name of Bruce Smith is going on in Orchard Park, you ask? Well, as we hinted at earlier, (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane opted to part ways with a slew of veteran starters who had been prominent figures within the team for quite some time; (Center) Mitch Morse, (Cornerback) Tre’Davious White, (Safety) Jordan Poyer, and (Receivers) Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs all left the club in the Spring, with the most notable being Diggs, who was traded away to Houston. Of course, the combination of Diggs and (2-time Pro-Bowler) Josh Allen had been one of the most prolific in the NFL for quite some time, combining with the former reeling in 445 receptions for 5,372 yards and thirty-seven touchdowns during their four years together. In fact, the veteran pass-catcher helped jumpstart his quarterback’s ascendance, though the relationship between the two seemed to deteriorate as time marched on. As such, this is a team that is counting on a plethora of young talents to make the leap forward, with the results being a mixed bag to this point; Despite ranking third overall in points scored (28.4), the attack has managed a mediocre 308.2 total yards (2nd Overall), including just 190.0 passing yards (24th Overall), while converting a disappointing 32.1% of their third downs (25th Overall). Allen (pictured below) is carrying an even larger burden, though has largely played clean football with zero interceptions, while leading the NFL in QBR (77.5). With that being said, the key has been the defense’s knack for getting takeaways (9), leading to the greatest turnover differential in the league (+7), with that particular side of the football even breaching the end zone in that aforementioned win over Miami. However, even winning the takeaway duel wasn’t enough to edge the Texans last weekend, as McDermott’s troops found themselves overwhelmed in the first half; the visitors were outscored 20-3 heading into intermission, outgained 230-78 in total yardage. Thankfully, the Bills found their rhythm in the second half, drawing within three points following back-to-back touchdown drives, the first culminating in a short jaunt into the end zone from (third-year Tailback) James Cook and the second ending in a 49-yard strike to (Rookie Wideout) Keon Coleman. Despite forcing consecutive turnovers on the host’s next two drives, Buffalo could do no more but square the game away with a 33-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Tyler Bass, for after some questionable management of their timeouts, were left to work out of their own end zone with under thirty-five seconds left and no timeouts, eventually punting away with seven seconds remaining. Rather than go to overtime, Houston had other ideas, driving into field goal range and drilling a walk-off 59-yarder. When it was all said and done, the visiting side was outgained 425-276 and possessed the football for just 26:50, due in large part to a woefully inefficient performance from Allen, who completed just 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards and that aforementioned score, while rushing for another fifty-four yards on four carries. It was his fewest passes completed in a single game since a 7-of-15 performance last December against Dallas, though it should be noted that he and his teammates dominated that 31-10 victory on the ground, rushing for 266 yards and three touchdowns on forty-nine carries.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 3-2 straight-up, but they are 2-3 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 1.18 units. Interestingly, three of their five outings have featured a spread of 2.5 or fewer points (1-2 ATS), which is once again the case in this annual pilgrimage to the Meadowlands. Under the direction of McDermott, this is a team that is 66-57-7 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2017, including 32-26 when playing away from Orchard Park, 23-20 against their neighbors in the AFC East, and 22-18 when coming off a spread loss. Since 1990, Buffalo is 6-6 ATS as a road favorite under the bright lights of Monday Night Football, though have covered just one of their last nine contests versus an opponent with revenge coming off ack-to-back SU defeats. Furthermore, this scenario is particularly relevant during the month of October, where they are a dreadful 1-10 ATS as favorites against an opponent whom they bested in their last encounter. Speaking of their opposition, the Bills lead the all-time series 69-58 SU, though it should be noted that the home side has won each of the last five meetings SU, which was the case in last Fall’s trip to MetLife Stadium, a wild 22-16 affair in which the Jets lost their starting QB three plays into their first possession, while Allen self-destructed with four turnovers. Allen is 7-4 in eleven career meetings with New York, completing 63.1% of his throws for an average of 232.0 yards on 6.47 net yards per attempt, with just as many turnovers as total touchdowns (18). Spread-wise, the 28-year-old is 26-20 ATS on the road, though 15-10 ATS when favored away from Highmark Stadium, and 4-3 ATS after consecutive defeats. The public is all over Buffalo in this one, folks, with approximately 65% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the Western New York outfit, despite the money telling a different story (53%). On the injury front, (veteran Edge-Rusher) Von Miller has another three games to serve of his current suspension for running afoul of the league’s personal conduct policy, while (Defensive Tackle) Ed Oliver will miss the affair due to a nagging hamstring strain. Cook and (emerging Wideout) Khalil Shakir are both listed as questionable with respective toe and ankle maladies, though (young Cornerback) Taron Johnson should be good to go after missing the last four games with a bruised forearm. Looking ahead, the Bills will finally return to Orchard Park next weekend for a visit from the struggling Titans, before hitting the road once again for the long trek to the Pacific Northwest where the Seahawks await them.
Meanwhile, Buffalo must appear like a modicum of serenity in comparison to the Jets (2-3, T-2nd in AFC East), who are the first team in the league this season to sack their head coach. After suffering their second consecutive loss, a 23-17 affair across the pond against the undefeated Vikings, the franchise shocked the football world earlier this week when they handed Robert Saleh his walking papers. During his three years and some change in charges, Saleh went 20-36 (.357) with Gang Green, proving unable to navigate them out of the malaise that they have been stuck in for the past thirteen years, the longest current drought without a playoff appearance in the league. With that being said, we all know that there were other issues going in the building apart from the 45-year-old, particularly after New York sold their soul with the acquisition of (four-time MVP) Aaron Rodgers last season. Remember, they didn’t just add the 40-year-old Rodgers and pay him $112.5 million ($75 million guaranteed) over three years, but bent over backwards to placate the veteran quarterback, hiring his former offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, while adding some of his former teammates to boot. Of course, Rodgers going down for the count just three plays into the 2023 season opener didn’t help matters, setting up a do-or-die campaign in the Big Apple for these Jets. After a sluggish start on the offensive side of the football in which they ranked twenty-fifth in points scored (18.6) and twenty-seventh in total offense (306.2), particularly in the last two outings, Saleh reportedly went to (longtime Owner) Woody Johnson with the aim of demoting Hackett from playcalling duties, only to be relieved of his own duties the following afternoon. Salivating, the New York media jumped all over this, with many pundits pointing the proverbial finger at Rodgers, whose relationship with Hackett is well-documented, though the future Hall-of-Famer categorically denied any and all involvement in the dismissal. Ironically, the first act of (Interim Head Coach) Jeff Ulbrich, who was promoted from defensive coordinator, was to demote the OC in favor of (Passing Game Coordinator) Todd Downing, completing the circle of lunacy. So, what does this all mean for the Jets, you ask? If not for nothing this should serve as a reminder that everyone’s jobs are on the line, including Rodgers, Ulbrich (pictured below), Hackett, and (General Manager) Joe Douglas, with twelve games left to turn it around and get to the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Given that Ulbrich presided over a defensive unit that ranks among the league’s best in a slew of categories including points allowed (17.0), total defense (255.8), pass defense (136.6), third down defense (31.7%), and red zone defense (41.7%), we doubt that that there will be much drop-off on that side of things, though the offense must find better balance. No team has rushed for fewer yards than New York, mustering a mere 80.4 yards per contest on 3.6 yards per carry (30th Overall), despite owning one of the better tailbacks in the NFL (Breece Hall) and a promising young rookie (Braelon Allen). Simply put, the days of Rodgers (averaging a career-low 5.10 net yards per attempt) carrying the attack and throwing the ball forty times a game is no longer a recipe for success, and the sooner that Downing understands this, the sooner these jets can finally take flight.
From a betting perspective, the Jets are both 2-3 straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 1.18 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that is 4-6 versus the spread over their past ten games overall, including a similar ledger in their last ten games at MetLife Stadium, while covering a dismal two out of ten outings as an underdog. Since 1990, New York is 9-6 ATS as a home dog on Monday Night Football, while in the month of October they are a staggering 27-6 when receiving points from the oddsmakers versus a division opponent who is above .500. With that being said, Gang Green is 2-15 ATS against their fellow AFC East brethren coming off a non-division affair, which is also the case tonight. As for Rodgers, he is 76-43 ATS all-time when playing at home, though is a stellar 7-1 ATS as a home dog. The vet is also 47-27 ATS when coming off a loss, though is 14-10 following back-to-back defeats. Over the course of his career, he is 3-2 SU versus the Bills, completing 54.2% of his throws for an average of 188.2 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions, while on Monday Night Football he is 13-9 SU, hitting on an efficient 67.8% of his passes for 232.0 yards per game, thirty-nine touchdowns, and thirteen interceptions. The Jets have won each of the last two encounters with Buffalo at MetLife Stadium, including that aforementioned season opener in which Rodgers tore his Achilles early into his first drive with the franchise. The hosts relied upon their defense and special teams to get the job done, forcing four turnovers, three of which were interceptions of Allen, while (Sophomore Wideout) Xavier Gipson ended the affair altogether with a 65-yard punt return in overtime. Evidently, the public doesn’t appear to have much memory of this, as only 35% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the outfit from the Meadowlands. However, the money has been traveling in the opposite direction, with a more middling 47% of all the green changing hands backing the team clad in that same color. On the injury front, the ongoing saga that has been (veteran Edge-Rusher) Haason Reddick’s holdout continues to rage on, so don’t expect to see him tonight. As for his teammates, (young Cornerback) Michael Carter is out of action due to an ailing back, while (veteran Linebacker) C.J. Mosley (toe) and (Tight End) Tyler Conklin (hip) are listed as questionable. Looking ahead, the Jets will enjoy their FOURTH primetime affair of the season with a trip to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers, before making their annual pilgrimage to Foxborough to face the Patriots, whom they manhandled in a 24-3 drubbing on a Thursday night three weeks ago.