8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Broncos -3.0, Total: 37.0
Reunion and rematches are the themes of Week Seven, with tonight’s showdown between the upstart Denver Broncos and the utterly decimated New Orleans Saints, which featured the return of a longtime head coach to a place where he had spent sixteen successful years of his career. Indeed, tonight’s battle in the Big Easy is all about the return of (Head Coach) Sean Payton, who after over a decade directing the Saints to the highest of highs is now hoping to do the same with Broncos (3-3, 3rd in AFC West). From 2006 to 2021, the 60-year-old stalked the sidelines in New Orleans, dragging the franchise out of the depression following Hurricane Katrina and into the most successful period of their history; Payton (pictured below) went 152-89 (.631) during the regular season, won seven division titles, with nine playoff appearances, while leading them to their first and only Lombardi Trophy back in 2009. However, his departure wasn’t necessarily the cleanest, folks, as he opted to retire following the 2021 campaign and spend a year in television, before entertaining suitors for his services a year later despite technically still being under contract with the Saints. There had been a growing narrative that Payton bailed on the franchise after (longtime Quarterback) Drew Brees called it a career, with talk of draft compensation in line for any team that he would eventually work for. Eventually, that team would be the Broncos, who look far more competitive in this, his second season at the helm than they did in the first. After a disappointing 8-9 finish, Payton continued to retool the roster to his liking, with the most noteworthy addition being that of (Rookie Quarterback) Bo Nix, whom Denver selected twelfth overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft. There are many around the league that believe that Payton identified the Oregon product as his new Brees, with there being some similarities between the two. Nix is accurate and throws with anticipation, though possesses a larger, more physical stature than the future Hall of Famer, with an ability to keep plays alive with his legs, rushing for 180 yards and three touchdowns already. With that being said, both he and the offense remain a work in progress; the ponies rank twenty-fifth in scoring (18.7) and twenty-ninth in total offense (287.6), with the 24-year-old completing 61.1% of his throws for an average of 180.3 yards per game on just 4.95 net yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (5). Thankfully, the defense continues to afford he and his teammates on the opposite side of the football time to develop, as (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph’s unit has been one of the best in the NFL. The Broncos have yielded just 16.0 points per game (4th Overall) on 284.4 total yards (4th Overall), thanks in large part to a stingy pass defense that has shipped just 170.2 yards through the air (5th Overall) on a scant 4.8 net yards per attempt, the second-lowest figure in the league. A young Secondary featuring (two-time Pro-Bowler) Patrick Surtain II has been the anchor of this group, with the young star accounting for two of his team’s five interceptions, including a pick-6 in a 34-18 victory over the Raiders two weeks ago, snapping 6-game losing streak to their bitter rivals. Their ability to perform in man coverage has thus afforded Joseph the opportunity to bring a wealth of pressure, with Denver blitzing at the NFL’s highest frequency (41.8%), resulting in a pressure percentage of 28.9% (4th Overall). However, they struggled to stop the Chargers in last weekend’s 23-16 defeat, which wasn’t quite as close as that score would suggest. Payton’s troops were scoreless until midway through the fourth quarter thanks in large part to an anemic offense and a pair of turnovers, including an interception of Nix on the opening drive. The hosts really struggled to get off the field as Los Angeles rushed for 128 yards on thirty-eight carries, possessing the football for a commanding 37:23 of game time. Nix did manage to make the visitors sweat with back-to-back touchdown passes in the final period, highlighted by a 15-yarder to (veteran Wideout) Courtland Sutton, though it was ultimately a case of too little too late. In the end, the ponies could muster just 316 total yards on seventeen first downs, including 110 via the run on eighteen carries, converting a mere 3-of-11 third downs. Nix was 19-of-33 passing for 216 yards, two scores and a pick, while breaking free for sixty-one rushing yards on six attempts.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos may be 3-3 straight-up, but they have marginally better against the spread (4-2), parlaying to a net profit of 1.64 units thus far. This was one of the worst teams in the NFL versus the spread in Payton’s first year in Mile High, covering just six of their seventeen contests (6-10-1), though their promising start this Fall leads us to believe that the process is indeed working. Speaking of Payton, the skipper is 10-12-1 ATS during this tenure with Denver, including 5-5 on the road and 4-5 as a favorite, along with 4-5 when coming off a loss. The ponies are also 4-3 as road favorites in their last seven appearances on Thursday night, while covering five of their last six outings following a spread loss, which is the case tonight. However, there are some trends that are working against the Broncos, with the first being that they have failed to cover six consecutive contests as a road favorite (0-5-1 ATS), including 0-4-1 ATS when they’ve been favored by 0.5-3.0 points away from Empower Field. Furthermore, they have dropped all but one of their last seven games away versus opponents with a win percentage of .333 or worse, which is precisely the case in this midweek affair. Looking at this particular matchup, they may meet only once every four years, but Denver saw a streak of four straight victories come to an end when they last clashed in 2020, a 31-3 beatdown at Mile High. Of course, Payton was coaching on the opposite side of this one, with the visitors bludgeoning his current employers on the ground (229-100), while forcing three turnovers along the way. How inept were the ponies on this day, you ask? They could muster just SIX first downs and a scant THIRTEEN passing yards, which is really hard to do in this pass-happy era of football. The public appears to believe that Payton will have an inside edge in tonight’s affair in the Big Easy, with approximately 58% of all wagers placed upon the spread siding with the visitors, with an overwhelming 78% following suit (though that may have more to do with their opponent’s injury woes). On the injury front, keep an eye on that young Secondary, which may not be at full strength with Surtain II (concussion), Riley Moss (hip), and Ja’Quan McMillan (ankle), who are all listed as questionable to participate in this short week due to various ailments. (Offensive Tackle) Alex Palczewski (ankle) is in the same boat after being limited throughout the abridged practice week, while the team is waiting on (fellow Tackle) Mike McGlinchey to make his return from injured reserve following a knee injury suffered back in Week Two. Looking ahead, Denver returns home for a visit from the miserable Panthers before their schedule becomes absolutely hellish; trips to Baltimore and Kansas City await, before Atlanta comes calling afterwards.
Meanwhile, Payton’s former charges are really going through it, folks, as the Saints (2-4, 3rd in NFC South) have found themselves mired within a 4-game losing streak, while coming off an embarrassing 51-27 loss to (division rival) Tampa Bay. This campaign started off with such promise for New Orleans, who erupted out of the gate with blowout victories over Carolina (47-10) and Dallas (44-19), outgaining the opposition by a staggering 132.5 total yards per game. Indeed, the addition of (new Offensive Coordinator) Klint Kubiak appeared to have unlocked a dormant attack that had grown stagnant since the departure of Payton, who had served as the team’s primary playcaller throughout the duration of his 16-year tenure. Many were ready to proclaim this group dark horse challengers within the NFC as a result, though as we get closer to the midway point of the campaign the brakes have been pumped on that narrative. So, what in the name of Archie Manning has happened to these Saints, you ask? Well, every year there are a few teams that get absolutely decimated by injuries, with New Orleans wearing that distinction thus far. At this point it would be more difficult to name the players actually starting for (Head Coach) Dennis Allen than those missing in action, with the offense hit particularly hard; (Quarterbacks) Derek Carr and Taysom Hill, (Wideouts) Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and a host of Offensive Linemen are all sidelined with various maladies, with some more serious than others (which we’ll get into shortly). As a result, the attack has come crashing back down to Earth, averaging just 19.0 points per game on 277.1 total yards during this losing skid, including 86.8 yards on the ground via 3.5 yards per carry. Furthermore, after enjoying a turnover margin of +3 in the first two games, they are level over the course of the past four weeks. So, who the hell is left on this side of the football? Allen placed his trust in the services of (Rookie Quarterback) Spencer Rattler last weekend, whom the Saints selected in the fifth round of last Spring’s NFL Draft. The 24-year-old was once a prized collegiate recruit, the number one QB in his class, though flamed out at Oklahoma in favor of some guy named Caleb Williams (you may have heard of him), before eventually transferring to South Carolina where he finished his college career. Armed with a lively arm and good mobility, Rattler (pictured below) received a baptism by fire in last weekend’s loss to the Buccaneers, as their blitzing defense gave him a wealth of issues early. This one was a wild affair, folks, as the Bucs raced out to a 17-0 lead, before the hosts responded with TWENTY unanswered points in the second quarter, including a 54-yard punt return to the house courtesy of Shaheed and Rattler’s first career touchdown pass, a 10-yarder into the corner of the end zone to (unheralded Receiver) Bub Means. The two sides would trade touchdowns before halftime, with New Orleans clinging to a 27-24 lead. However, the second half was literally all Tampa, who outscored the home side 27-0 and outgained them by 200 yards. Rattler & Co went three-and-out on three occasions, while he was picked off twice along the way, bringing an end to what was a very eventful debut. The youngster completed 22-of-40 passes for 243 yards with a touchdowns and two picks, while suffering five sacks for a loss of twenty-one yards and a fumble. He did manage to rush for twenty-seven yards on four carries, though that part of his game became less threatening as the deficit continued to grow. (Former Pro-Bowl Tailback) Alvin Kamara amassed sixty-four yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown, but also fumbled the football. As for Allen’s defense, they conceded a whopping 594 total yards, including 277 on the ground and another 325 through the air, shipping thirty-one first downs along the way. Consider this, folks: the Bucs gained all those points and yards despite committing three turnovers and a dozen penalties for a loss of eighty-six yards. It looks like Allen has more than just his offense to worry about…
From a betting perspective, the Saints may be 2-4 straight-up thus far but they have also been marginally better against the spread (3-3), parlaying to a net loss of 0.27 units. As is the case with their opponent tonight, this is a team that is also coming off a disappointing campaign versus the spread, covering just six of their seventeen games in 2023 (6-10-1 ATS), and have continued to struggle on that front (1-3 last 4 games). Under the leadership of Allen, they are 16-23-1 ATS since he was promoted back in 2022, including 7-12 at Caesars Superdome, though are 6-3 ATS when coming off back-to-back defeats and facing a non-division opponent. Furthermore, New Orleans is 13-2 ATS after allowing thirty-five or more points, which is obviously the case after shipping that 50-burger last weekend. With that being said, they have been VERY poor in these midweek affairs, failing to cover five straight Thursday night games, while dropping ELEVEN such outings in a row (0-9-2 ATS) against non-division opposition. Also, the Saints have covered only once as a home dog of more than a point over the last three years (1-8), which doesn’t bode well for their chances tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, these teams have met just six times since the turn of the century, with New Orleans’ only victory being that aforementioned drubbing of the Broncos from 2020. Favored by 16.5 points with both team’s starting quarterbacks out of commission, the visitors kept things grounded and plowed right through one of the better defenses in the league, churning out 229 yards and four scores on forty-four carries. Kamara breached the end zone twice with fifty-four yards on eleven carries, while the aforementioned Hill scored two of his own along with forty-four yards on ten rushes. It would be a welcome sight if they are able to run the ball with that kind of success tonight, particularly when you consider the ongoing injury saga in the trenches; as we touched upon earlier, Allen has been without a slew of Offensive Linemen, with the likes of Eric McCoy (groin), Justin Herron (knee), Ryan Ramczyk (knee), and Shane Lemieux (ankle) all out of action, while Lucas Patrick (chest) and Cesar Ruiz (knee) are listed as questionable. Furthermore, Carr is expected to miss at least one more week, while Hill is doubtful once again due to bruised ribs, with Olave (concussion) and Shaheed (knee) late scratches as well. In fact, the situation is even more dire for Shaheed, who will miss a number of weeks thanks to a torn meniscus. Looking ahead, the Saints will travel to the City of Angels to battle the Chargers next weekend, before coming back to the east coast for another division affair, this time against the struggling Panthers.