10:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: BYU -8.5, Total: 55.5
A pair of teams traveling in polar opposite directions clash tonight under the bright light of LaVell Edwards Stadium, as the fading Oklahoma State Cowboys are desperate for a victory in Provo against the unbeaten (No. 13) BYU Cougars, who are off to their best start in four years. As we reach the midway point of the regular season, one of the more surprising storylines in the BIG XII has been the what the hell has happened to Oklahoma State (3-3, 0-3 in BIG XII), who after winning their first three games of the campaign have begun conference play with three consecutive defeats. Fresh off a 10-4 finish (following a 2-2 start no less), the Cowboys entered the Fall ranked seventeenth in the preseason polls and were expected to be a challenger for league supremacy now that the resident powerhouses, Texas and Oklahoma, have fled to the SEC. (Head Coach) Mike Gundy has seen a lot of things over the last two decades leading his alma mater, though it has been a quite a while since the Pokes have struggled like this; since his arrival back in 2005, the 57-year-old is 169-82 (.673) with eighteen consecutive bowl appearances and eight 10+ campaigns, though a loss tonight would mark their first four-game losing streak since 2014. So, what in the name of Barry Sanders is going on in Stillwater, you ask? Well, despite returning NINETEEN starters from last year’s side, these Cowboys have been turnover-prone and wildly unbalanced on both sides of the football. After breaking out last Fall with an FBS-best 1,732 rushing yards and twenty-one touchdowns, (Junior Tailback) Ollie Gordon has been a shell of electrifying playmaker that he was in 2023, amassing 384 yards and four scores on 101 carries. That’s a dip from 6.1 yards per carry to 3.8, folks, which is a mystery to just about everyone in Stillwater at this point. The Offensive Line returned all five starters with a combined 214 career starts, so the blocking shouldn’t be the issue, but Gordon (pictured below) simply hasn’t been remotely close to being as productive through the first six games. With the lack of a rushing attack (91.2 yards per game), placing more pressure on the passing game, (Senior Quarterback) Alan Bowman continues to be a turnover machine, already tossing EIGHT interceptions after leading the FBS with fourteen a year ago. Bowman (also pictured below) was picked off twice in a 38-14 loss at Boone Pickens Stadium two weeks ago, prompting Gundy to bench the former Michigan transfer in favor of (Sophomore) Garret Rangel, who stepped in to complete 4-of-5 passes for seventy-five yards and a late consolation 43-yard touchdown to (Junior Wideout) De’Zhaun Stribling. Gundy was mum on whether or not the change would be permanent, as that was the most action that Rangel had seen since his run as a true freshman back in 2022. However, arguably the bigger issue for Oklahoma State has been the dismal play of their defense, which was eviscerated by the Mountaineers, who racked up 558 total yards on thirty-one first downs, including a ridiculous 389 rushing yards, the most relinquished in any single game of the Gundy era. The skipper lamented the lack of tackling in the post-game presser, but this has been a prevailing flaw within (Defensive Coordinator) Bryan Nardo’s unit, who have now shipped 300+ rushing yards in back-to-back games and are shipping 235.0 yards per contest on that front, parlaying to an average of 5.5 yards per rush. It goes without saying, but Gundy failed in replacing (former DC) Jim Knowles last year, who after directing a defense that yielded just 18.1 points per game on 298 yards in 2021, left for greener pastures at Ohio State. Derek Mason would be fired after just one year on the job, while Nardo, who was the coordinator at (Division I) Gannon University prior to his hiring at OSU, has failed to improve the unit despite the presence of nine returning starters.
From a betting perspective, Oklahoma State may be 3-3 straight-up, but they are 2-4 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 2.18 units. Dating back to last season, this is a team that has covered just four of their last eleven games overall, including each of the last three outings. For inquiring minds, the Pokes haven’t lost three consecutive games since their 2-6 tailspin from 2022 and haven’t dropped four consecutive contests in a decade. Under the direction of Gundy, this is a program that is 128-101-7 versus the spread over the last twenty years, including 52-43 away from Stillwater, 23-21 as a road underdog, 41-32 when coming off a loss, and 26-19 with rest. The Cowboys have also failed to cover FIVE straight conference affairs, while dropping six of their last seven games versus the spread as a dog away from Boone Pickens Stadium. Furthermore, OSU is 1-7 ATS when coming off a bye and facing an opponent fresh off of back-to-back SU/ATS wins, which is the case tonight in Provo. With that being said, it’s not all doom and gloom for this team, for they are 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU defeats. This is the fourth all-time meeting on the gridiron between these schools, the second as members of the BIG XII, and the first time at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Oklahoma State has never lost to BYU, though last year’s 40-34 showdown was a close one; the visitors raced out to a 24-6 lead at halftime, only for Gundy’s troops to turn up the heat post intermission, as Gordon ripped off three touchdowns to retake the lead before the Cougars kicked a field goal to send the tilt into overtime. After being deadlocked following the first extra period, Gordon rushed for his FIFTH score of the afternoon, while the defense stifled the visitors to collect the victory. Bowman completed 31-of-47 passes for 321 yards but was picked off twice, with one returned thirteen yards to the house, while Gordon collected 166 rushing yards on thirty-four carries, the bulk of which came in the second half. On the injury front, the prolific rusher departed that loss to the Mountaineers with a lower leg injury, though Gundy was quick to state that the situation wasn’t serious, and he expected him to suit up for this trip to Brigham Young. Looking ahead, the Cowboys will remain on the road for a trip to Waco to face struggling Baylor, before returning to Boone Pickens to host surprising Arizona State, who just knocked off one of the favorites to win the conference, Utah.
Meanwhile, while their opponent continues to search for answers, BYU (6-0, 3-0 in BIG XII) has aced every test thus far as they have gotten off to their best start since the wild and crazy COVID campaign of 2020, when they finished 11-1. However, Brigham Young is officially affiliated now, enjoying such success in this, their second season as a member of the renovated BIG XII. After going 5-7 last Fall, including a disappointing 2-7 run through the new league, (Head Coach) Kalani Sitake’s troops have found their footing and have thus far exceeded most expectations. So, what in the name of Ty Detmer has happened in Provo, you ask? Well, the Cougars are much better on both sides of the football. Offensively, (Offensive Coordinator) Aaron Roderick has opened up the playbook, with his unit averaging 34.3 points (30th in FBS) on 387.8 total yards, which are improvements of 11.3 points and 87.8 yards respectively. (Senior Quarterback) Jake Retzlaff has grown by leaps and bounds, completing 60.3% of his throws for 1,426 yards on a healthy 8.0 yards per attempt, with fourteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while also serving as the team’s leading rusher with another 184 yards and a score. Of course, such growth is made possible when you have a veteran Offensive Line and two of the most productive receivers in the league, as Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter have routinely made plays downfield. Indeed, the tandem of Roberts and Lassiter (pictured together below) have combined for forty-seven receptions and 718 yards with three touchdowns apiece, with each wideout logging 15.3 yards per catch. At 6-4 and 6-2 respectively, these guys are big targets for Retzlaff to throw to, while proving to be valuable weapons in the red zone. In last weekend’s 41-19 drubbing of Arizona, Lassiter hauled in five passes for a team-high eighty-six yards, while Roberts added five catches of his own for sixty-one yards and a score. After the Wildcats got on the board first to take a 7-0 lead, it was all Cougars after that, as the hosts scored TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points to take a 24-7 lead early in the third period. When it was all said and done, the box score may have suggested that this was a more evenly contested affair, with BYU amassing just eleven more total yards and the visitors gaining three more first downs, but the biggest difference in this matchup was takeaways, which Sitake & Co won decisively, 4-1. Indeed, Brigham Young picked off Noah Fifita three times, with (Sophomore Linebacker) Isaiah Glasker forcing a fumble and returning one of those interceptions to the house. The Cougars have grown a lot on this side of the football too, yielding just 16.3 points per game (15th in FBS), which is their best mark since 2020. Takeaways have been essential to their success on this front, as Sitake, a former defensive coordinator at Oregon State (2015) and Utah (2005-2014), has enjoyed a positive turnover margin in each of the last six seasons and looks to be well on his way to doing so once again. His charges have produced FOURTEEN takeaways through six games, with three or more in three different contests, including a total of NINE coming in the last three games alone. This has led to a very healthy +7 differential, which will definitely be one of the keys to keep an eye on this matchup with the turnover-prone Pokes.
From a betting perspective, BYU are one of the few teams in the country to be undefeated both straight-up and against the spread thus far, making them a very profitable side at 5.45 units. Dating back to last Fall, this is a team that has actually covered each of their last eight outings, including each of the last four contested at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Under the leadership of Sitake, this is a program that is 53-47 versus the spread since he arrived eight years ago, including 23-23 at home and 16-20 when favored by the oddsmakers in Provo, along with 13-7 when playing with revenge. Brigham Young has covered seven of their last eight games versus an opponent off back-to-back SU losses, with the most recent seeing them favored, which is precisely the case tonight. But wait, there are more trends backing the Cougars in this one, folks, as Sitake’s troops have covered NINE of their last ten home games against BIG XII opposition, while owning an 8-2-mark ATS after scoring forty or more points, which they did last weekend. As we covered earlier, this is a program that has never beaten Oklahoma State on the gridiron, though this is the first time that BYU has actually hosted them in a regular season affair. When they crossed paths last Fall in Stillwater, the visitors gave the Pokes everything they could handle in that aforementioned 40-34 shootout, running off TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points in a span of roughly seventeen minutes of game time. Retzlaff and (Senior Wideout) Keelan Marion each rushed for a score within that span, while (former Cornerback) Eddie Heckard logged a pick-6. However, as we covered earlier, the offense went quiet in the second half while Gordon ran wild flipping the game on its head before (Junior Kicker) Will Ferrin sent the game to overtime with a 48-yard field goal. Retzlaff and Gordon would trade rushing touchdowns in the first OT, though the latter would have the final say. Despite being outgained 503-327 in total yardage, 321-197 through the air, and 28-14 in first downs, Sitake & Co kept it close with a pair of takeaways. Retzlaff wasn’t great passing the ball, completing 14-of-30 throws for 161 yards, though managed to make things happen in the red zone where he breached the end zone twice. On the injury front, (Senior Wideout) Kody Epps is listed as questionable with an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, BYU will hit the road for a long trip to Orlando to battle UCF, before enjoying their second bye week of the campaign, followed by the latest chapter in the annual Holy War against (bitter rival) Utah.