7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Texas -3.5, Total: 56.5
One of the best things about all of the interconference movement in college football is that we’re now privy to more clashes between powerhouses than ever before, as the (No. 5) Georgia Bulldogs travel to Austin to battle the (No. 1) Texas Longhorns in a second top 5 showdown in as many weeks. For Georgia (5-1, 3-1 in SEC), tonight’s trip to the lone star state is an opportunity to make up for the lone blemish on their CV, a wild 41-34 loss in Tuscaloosa to (No. 7) Alabama, who happen to be the only school to have beaten them since 2021. With the SEC more treacherous than ever, the Bulldogs face ‘Bama, Texas, and Mississippi all on the road this Fall, which is about as arduous a trek for any team in the country. Granted, with such challenges come opportunities to advance themselves in the rankings and by extension, the eyes of CFP Selection Committee, who omitted the Dawgs from the Playoff last January. We don’t doubt that (Head Coach) Kirby Smart has been preaching such a narrative as the preseason number one gets ready to take on the current numero uno. So, what do we make of Georgia coming into this seismic showdown, you ask? While they haven’t been as dominant on either side of the football as they have in recent years, this is still a formidable group capable of making a run to and through the Playoff. Offensively, they have transitioned to more of a passing team, playing into the strengths of (Junior Quarterback) Carson Beck. After setting a school record for completion percentage (72.4%) and leading the SEC in passing attempts (417), completions (302), and passing yards (3,941), Beck (pictured below) has been more of a mixed bag this season, completing 67.9% of his throws for 1,818 yards on 8.7 yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, all of which have come in the last three games. He was picked off three times in that aforementioned clash with the Crimson Tide, while tossing two more in last weekend’s 41-31 win over Mississippi State. With (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Bobo placing more pressure on the shoulders of his quarterback, the ground game has suffered as a result; long synonymous with running the football, it is odd to see the Bulldogs averaging just 134.0 rushing yards, which currently clocks in at 57.3 fewer yards than last year, by far and away the least of the Smart era. Could it be the byproduct of a talent drain after sending so many Tailbacks and Offensive Linemen to the NFL? Perhaps, though the fact that an RB1 hasn’t revealed themselves thus far is a conundrum to say the least. (Florida transfer) Trevor Etienne was expected to be that guy, though he has yet to crack the 100-yard threshold since coming to Athens. Only more questions came from last Saturday’s visit from the Bulldogs, which devolved into a shootout between two schools traditionally operating at opposite poles of the conference. Smart’s charges led 34-10 early in the second half, though would see the visitors draw within ten points on two different occasions the rest of the way. Simply put, it shouldn’t take 605 total yards and 459 passing yards from Beck in order to dispose of Mississippi State, but that was the case. Beck threw FORTY-EIGHT passes and while he slung three touchdowns on as many consecutive drives, he was also intercepted twice, which adds more fuel to the fire of this unit’s imbalance. Perhaps more alarming was the play of the defense, which struggled to put away their opponent from Starkville, shipping 385 yards, including 301 through the air and three such scores, all of which came in the second half. (Defensive Coordinator) Glen Schuman may be a rising star in coaching circles, but has troops have been far too generous in defending the pass of late, relinquishing 234.0 yards on 64.9% passing with five touchdowns in comparison to two interceptions over the last three games. Takeaways have been hard to come by for these Dawgs, with just five in six contests.
From a betting perspective, Georgia may be 5-1 straight-up, but they have managed to cover just one of their first six games thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 4.09 units. Then again, this is a byproduct of habitually being such a heavy favorite; this is a team that has been favored by 21+ points in four of their five spread losses, including 33.5 points in last weekend’s victory over Mississippi State. Of course, that is NOT the case with this particular matchup, as the Bulldogs find themselves as underdogs for just the fifth time since 2018 and the first occasion since the 2021 season opener. Under the direction of Smart, this is a program that is 61-54-1 versus the spread, including 1-2 as an underdog away from Sanford Stadium. In fact, the skipper has only been that kind of dog eleven times since he was hired back in 2016, covering seven of them along the way and winning four such contests outright. Seriously, his troops have been favored in FIFTY-THREE of their last fifty-four games, winning all but three of them. However, these Dawgs have hit a bit of wall when it comes to covering against their SEC brethren as they are currently mired in a 5-game losing streak ATS, while failing to cover each of their last six outings following a SU win. Furthermore, they are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games immediately preceding their annual rivalry with Florida, which is the case tonight. Looking deeper into this particular matchup, this is only the sixth time that these powerhouses have ever met on the gridiron, with Georgia winning just once. Their most recent meeting came in the 2018 Sugar Bowl, where Smart & Co. came up just short of a whirlwind comeback in a 28-21 defeat. The Bulldogs trailed 28-7 midway through the fourth quarter, before adding a pair of consolation touchdowns, though struggled mightily offensively with a meager 284 total yards, seventy-two of which came via the run. In a series that dates back to 1949, UGA haven’t traveled to Austin since 1957. The public doesn’t appear to fancy the Dawgs as an underdog, with roughly 24% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread wearing red, while an even smaller portion of the money changing hands (11%) has followed suit to Athens. On the injury front, . Looking ahead, Georgia will enjoy their second and final bye week of the season before heading to Jacksonville for annual encounter with Florida, followed by another tough road venture at Oxford against (No. 18) Ole Miss.
Meanwhile, this season is shaping up to be a potentially magical one for Texas (6-0, 2-0 in BIG XII), who are unbeaten through six games for the first time since 2009, which is ironically the last season in which they competed for a National Championship, falling to Alabama in the (then) BCS National Title Game (37-21). The fact that they’re enjoying such success in this, their first season after transitioning to the SEC, a conference that houses THIRTEEN of the last eighteen national champions, is a testament to the Athletic Department and (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian, who in the four years preceding the switch had been rebuilding the program with SEC-caliber talent, dipping into the bountiful recruiting base that is the lone star state. After making the leap from 8-5 to 12-2, the Longhorns have looked like the frontrunners for the top seed in the expanded playoff bracket, and with a win tonight over Georgia they will receive another stamp of approval on their CV. So, what do we make of Texas thus far, you ask? Well, even without the services of (Senior Quarterback) Quinn Ewers for two games due to a bruised abdomen, this team has been dominant on both sides of the football, averaging a robust 43.2 points (7th in FBS) on nearly 500.0 yards of total offense (495.7), while relinquishing a scant 6.3 points per game, the fewest in the country. Whether it has been Ewers (pictured below) or (hyped Redshirt Freshman) Arch Manning, the quarterback play in Austin has been elite thus far, with the ‘Horns completing an efficient 70.8% of their throws for 306.7 yards on 9.58 yards per attempt, with EIGHTEEN touchdowns in comparison to just five interceptions. To suggest that Ewers, who has totaled 890 yards and ten total touchdowns in four games can even remotely sense pressure from Manning (901 yards, 9 touchdowns) should give you an idea how good these passers are, with a wealth of talent surrounding them at the skill positions and along the Offensive Line. Oh, and as for the defense, they have set up a proverbial no-fly zone with only a single passing touchdown allowed opposed to seven interceptions. All of these strengths were on display in last weekend’s thumping of Oklahoma in the latest installment of the annual Red River Rivalry. While it is true that the Sooners haven’t taken to the SEC as smoothly as their longtime rivals, the fact that Texas dominated them in the 34-3 affair, should paint a clearer picture of a team on a mission. After all, the Longhorns had lost nine of the previous eleven meetings between these border adversaries, though you wouldn’t know it by their respective performances in this one, folks; Sarkisian’s charges were intercepted on their opening drive, which led to an Oklahoma field goal, though it would be all burnt orange from there on, with the ‘Horns scoring the final THIRTY-FOUR points of the game. Ewers & Co. outgained their rivals 406-237 in total yardage despite amassing one fewer first down, thanks in large part to a 177-89 disparity in rushing led by (Sophomore Tailback) Tre Wisner, who churned out a career-high 118 yards and a touchdown on just thirteen carries. As for Ewers, he was efficient in completing 20-of-29 passes for 199 yards, a touchdown and that early interception, with (Senior Tight End) Gunnar Helm hauling five receptions for ninety-one yards and their opening score. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit wreaked havoc in the trenches throughout the afternoon, logging five sacks, 10.5 sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles, recovering both. (Sophomore Linebacker) Anthony Hill was the most disruptive Longhorn of the lot, totaling eleven tackles, 3.5 for loss, a pair of sacks, and a forced fumble.
From a betting perspective, Texas may be undefeated straight-up, but they are 5-1 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 3.55 units. The only blemish on their ledger in that regard was a 35-13 victory over Mississippi State in which they were huge favorites (37.5 points). Granted, unlike their opponent tonight, the Longhorns have done a solid job of covering such sizable spreads, owning a 3-1 record when favored by 35+ points this Fall. Under the leadership of Sarkisian, this is a program that is 25-20 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2021, including 20-12-1 over the last thirty-three contests. Coach Sark is also 13-8 ATS when favored in Austin, though a middling 15-15 ATS against conference opponents, and 3-2 versus SEC opposition. Furthermore, they are 2-7 ATS in their past nine outings against the SEC when favored by twenty-one or fewer points. It should also be noted that the ‘Horns have covered just THREE of the last ten games immediately following their annual encounter with Oklahoma, including 0-3 ATS under Sarkisian (2-1 SU). Last Fall, after a thrilling 34-30 loss to the Sooners, they barely survived a short trip south to Houston (31-25), whom they were favored over by 23.5 points. Ewers was knocked out of the game with a concussion in the second half, which forced the visitors to shift their approach to run game, eventually leading to the game-winning touchdown from (Sophomore Tailback) C.J. Baxter. Looking at this particular matchup, Texas owns a 4-1 lead in the all-time series between these schools, which includes that aforementioned affair in the 2018 Sugar Bowl, in which the Longhorns dominated the Bulldogs on both sides of the football, including sizable advantages in rushing yards (178-72) and takeaways (2-0). Perhaps the public remembers that contest, or then again, maybe they’re just riding the hype train that is the number one team in the country, as a commanding 74% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are sporting burnt orange, while an even greater share of the money (86%) is residing in Austin. On the injury front, . Looking ahead, Texas will follow this second top 5 showdown with a trip to Vanderbilt (which suddenly doesn’t seem like such a cakewalk, right?), before enjoying their second and final bye week of the campaign, followed by a visit from Florida.