4:25 PM EST, FOX – Spread: 49ers -1.5, Total: 47.0
A rematch of Super Bowl LVII headlines the day of action in the NFL, as the surging Kansas City Chiefs look to remain unbeaten in this trip to the west coast to battle the San Francisco 49ers, who are simply trying to stay afloat through an ongoing injury crisis. It seems the more that things change, the more they stay the same for the Chiefs (5-0,1st in AFC West), who find themselves as one of just two undefeated teams six weeks into the regular season. After securing their third Lombardi Trophy in five years, (Head Coach) Andy Reid) and (General Manager) Brett Veach) placed an emphasis on bolstering the weapons around (two-time MVP) Patrick Mahomes, particularly in the receiving corps where speed and verticality was desired. Remember, Kansas City remarkably managed to win back-to-back Super Bowls while largely turning over their roster in a number of key areas, including the offensive and defensive lines, while the overall attack became more methodical and less explosive along the way. With that in mind, the franchise added Marquise Brown in free agency before selecting (Texas product) Xavier Worthy in the first round of last Spring’s NFL Draft, two players that were advertised as vertical threats. Unfortunately, the injury bug has ravaged the skill positions for Reid & Co; Brown never even made it out of training camp due to a shoulder injury, while (Sophomore Wideout) Rashee Rice suffered a torn LCL in his knee three weeks ago and will also miss the rest of the season. If that wasn’t enough, (third-year Tailback) Isiah Pacheco, who really established himself as their top rusher last year, fractured his fibula back in Week Two and isn’t expected to return to the field until sometime in December. In an attempt to fill the void, the Chiefs turned to a pair of former stars, Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster, with both former Super Bowl champions being signed off the street. While there is certainly value in familiarity, they have only begun to start moving the proverbial needle for an attack that has failed to live up to expectations thus far; Kansas City ranks fifteenth in points scored (23.6), eleventh in total yards (364.8), ninth in passing yards (247.0), and sixteenth in rushing (117.8), all the while clocking in at 29th in red zone touchdown percentage (38.9%) and twenty-seventh in turnover differential (-4). Thankfully, the defense continues to be a pain in the ass under the leadership of (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo, yielding just 17.0 points per game (6th Overall) on 305.4 total yards (9th Overall). His unit proved to be decisive in their 26-13 victory over the Saints two weeks ago, in which they relegated the visitors to just 220 total yards on fourteen first downs, including forty-six rushing yards on fifteen carries, and a combined 4-of-12 on third and fourth down. Furthermore, they pressured the opposing quarterback on a sizable 40% of their drop-backs, logging fourteen total pressures, eight hits, seven hurries, and forcing seven bad throws. Needless to say, Mahomes (pictured below) doesn’t need much more than that to get the job done, though the offense nonetheless grinded away at New Orleans’ defense, amassing 460 total yards, including 139 of the rushing variety which allowed them to possess the football for a commanding 39:56 of game time. Hunt turned back the clock with 102 yards and a touchdown on twenty-seven carries, while Smith-Schuster reeled in seven catches on eight targets for 130 yards. Simply put, that is the most productive either payer has been since their previous tenures with the club. As for Mahomes, he completed 28-of-39 passes for 331 yards and an interception in what was otherwise a subpar performance (by his lofty standards), though it should be noted that we finally saw some signs of life form (veteran Tight End) Travis Kelce, who totaled nine receptions for seventy yards after weeks of relative quiet.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may be undefeated straight-up, but it has been slightly different story against the spread (3-1-1), parlaying to a net profit of 1.73 units. Thus far, they have alternated covers and non-covers, including their shellacking of the Saints two weeks ago in which they were favored by five points. Under the direction of Reid, this is a franchise that is 113-90-4 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2013, including 56-37-1 away from Arrowhead, 28-14 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 11-11 with rest, and 72-58-1 against opponents harboring revenge. Furthermore, Big Red has covered ELEVEN of his last twelve games as an away dog, which is the case this evening. Oh, and dating back to his time in the City of Brotherly Love, Reid is a commanding 28-3 SU when coming off a bye week and the other team has not. Granted, the Niners are coming off the mini-bye given that they played last Thursday, which parlays to a 3-4 mark for Reid when both sides are enjoying rest. However, it should be noted that Kansas City is also 6-1 ATS versus non-conference opposition over the last three years, while winning and covering each of their last four encounters with the 49ers, two of which have obviously come on the game’s grandest stage, with their most recent regular season affair coming in Santa Clara. Over the course of his career, Mahomes has never lost to the 49ers, completing an efficient 68.1% of his throws for an average of 339.0 yards on a robust 8.23 net yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while rushing for another 102 yards and score along the way. In last February’s fateful showdown in Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes met little resistance against San Fran’s defense, shredding them for 333 yards and two touchdowns on 34-of-46 passing, while rushing for another sixty-six yards, with his game-winning strike to Mecole Hardman in overtime sealing their third Lombardi Trophy in five years. As such, the public seems to remember that turn of events very clearly, as approximately 78% of all bets placed upon today’s spread are siding with the reigning champions, with a slightly larger share of the money (80%) following suit. On the injury front, we know that the Chiefs have gotten thin at receiver given the season-ending injuries to Rice and Brown, though (veteran Wideout) JuJu Smith-Schuster popped on the injury report as questionable with a tender hamstring. Apart from that, (Defensive End) Mike Danna will miss the game altogether with a pectoral malady. Looking ahead, Kansas City will make their annual pilgrimage to Las Vegas next weekend to face the fading Raiders, before entertaining another Super Bowl rematch, this time Super Bowl LV, at home against the Buccaneers.
Meanwhile, the 49ers (3-3 1st in NFC West) are also going through an injury crisis, though it should be noted that they have yet to even receive the services of their most influential weapon, (veteran Tailback) Christian McCaffrey. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year is coming off a brilliant campaign in which he led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459), total touches (339), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and total touchdowns (21). Unfortunately, McCaffrey (picture below) has been sidelined throughout the campaign thus far thanks to ongoing soreness to his calf and Achilles, even traveling to Germany to seek treatment. While this is certainly a talented offense, the 28-year-old is the difference between them being good and great. With (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan calling plays, McCaffrey is utilized as the ultimate chess piece, creating mismatches with Linebackers and Safeties, while proving to be an utter savant within the red zone. Basically, opponents have to defend San Francisco completely differently when he’s on the field. In this case, the numbers don’t lie, folks; with McCaffrey in action, the Niners are 26-7 in comparison to 3-4 without him. However, there is reason to believe that they may be finding their rhythm in his absence, as San Fran has crossed the 30-point threshold int wo of their last three games, including last week’s 36-24 thumping of the Seahawks, which was their fifth consecutive victory over their division rival. The visitors started quickly, scoring the first sixteen points of the night as (young Quarterback) Brock Purdy hit (veteran Wideout) Deebo Samuel for a 76-yard strike early in the second quarter, while (journeyman Kicker) Matthew Wright, who was filling in for the injured Jake Moody, drilled three field goals. After intermission, the 49ers picked right up where they left off, as Purdy (pictured below alongside McCaffrey) found (veteran Tight End) George Kittle for a 10-yard score, before hooking up with the former Pro-Bowler one more time in the end zone following back-to-back touchdowns from the hosts. Seattle would strike back with another touchdown to cut the deficit to five points, though San Francisco would finish off the night with a short jaunt into the end zone courtesy of (veteran Fullback) Kyle Juszczyk. When it was all said and done, the Niners outgained the birds 483-358 in total yardage, including 228-52 on the ground, while the defense logged three takeaways, two of which were interceptions of Geno Smith. Purdy completed 18-of-28 passes for 255 yards and those three scores, while (Rookie Tailback) Isaac Guerendo, a fourth-round pick out of Louisville, erupted for ninety-nine yards on just ten carries. This was one of those games in which the run game was gashing the opponent repeatedly, as San Fran averaged a robust 6.9 yards per carry on the night, with (young Tailback) Jordan Mason, adding seventy-three yards of his own on just nine carries to boot. Samuel needed just three catches to amass 102 yards, while Kittle reeled in five of his six targets for fifty-eight yards and two touchdowns. When Shanahan’s teams are able to the ball like that, they are awfully difficult to stop, though it will be interesting to see if they can replicate that performance against the fifth-ranked run defense in the league. The 49ers were held to a modest 110 yards on thirty-one attempts in Super Bowl LVII, equating to 3.5 yards per carry.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers are 3-3- both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 0.27 units. They have been favored in every game this season, though it should be noted that when the line has fallen below four points, they are 2-0 ATS, which is once again the case this evening. Under the leadership of Shanahan, this is a franchise that is 69-62-2 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2017, including 31-32 at Levi’s Stadium, 31-23 when favored by the oddsmakers, 4-9 with rest, and 36-31 with revenge. San Francisco is also 11-10 ATS after scoring 35+ points, 4-0 ATS following their last four appearances on Thursday Night Football, and 20-11 under his watch versus an opponent coming off a spread victory. Furthermore, consistency has been something that has been hard to grasp for the reigning NFC Champions, who have failed to cover SIX straight games following a SU win, FIVE consecutive contests following a cover, and four in a row after scoring 30+ in the previous outing. However, Shanahan has struggled mightily against his counterpart in this matchup; he is 0-4 both SU and ATS versus Reid, losing by an average margin of 12.0 points per game, which obviously includes those two Super Bowl affairs. Ironically, Purdy’s first career pass against in mop-up duty against Kansas City nearly two years ago, completing 4-of-9 passes for sixty-six yards and an interception in a 44-23 defeat at home. Since then, his only other encounter with them was in last February’s Super Bowl LVII, in which he connected on 23-of-38 passes for 255 yards and a touchdown, though ultimately had to settle for a field goal on the opening drive of overtime before the Chiefs took the ensuing possession to the house. With all of that in mind, the public isn’t very bullish on the 49ers in this one, folks, as roughly 22% of all bets placed upon the spread are siding with the hosts, while an even smaller share of the money (20%) has followed suit. On the injury front, it appears that the aforementioned McCaffrey is still a week or two away from returning from the ongoing calf/Achilles tendonitis that has sidelined him throughout the season, while his primary backup, the aforementioned Mason, is listed as questionable to participate this evening due to a sore shoulder. There is more though, as (Guard) Jon Feliciano (knee), (Safety) Talanoa Hufanga (wrist), and (Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave (triceps) are all out of action once again with various maladies, while (veteran Wideout) Jauan Jennings is questionable with an ailing hip. However, there is some good news, as (Rookie Receiver) Ricky Pearsall, who has yet to make his debut after suffering a gunshot during a robbery, has been activated and will likely make his first appearance with the team since being drafted thirty-first overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft. Looking ahead, the Niners will renew acquaintances with their historic rivals, the Cowboys, next weekend at Levi’s Stadium before enjoying their bye week.