8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Ravens -3.5, Total: 49.5
Week Seven comes to a close tonight on Florida’s Gulf Coast, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers return home for the first time since the disastrous effects of Hurricane Milton, facing the surging Baltimore Ravens, who are in search of their fifth consecutive victory. Despite coming up short at home in last January’s AFC Championship, the Ravens (4-2, 1st in AFC North) were expected by many to once again be one of the few teams left standing come January, thanks in large part to the exploits of (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson and the addition of (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry, who arrived via free agency last Spring. Again, most expected Baltimore to hit the ground running, though that wasn’t necessarily the case as (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh’s troops got off to a slow start with back-to-back losses to kick off the campaign. Sure, falling to the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs (27-20) is hardly a sin, though following that up with a puzzling 26-23 defeat to the lowly Raiders in their home opener a week later seemed to be cause for panic for many around the Chesapeake Bay. Fortunately, they have managed to right the proverbial ship by getting back to basics, or in other words, running the damn ball. It is no secret that ever since Jackson became the starter, a grounded approach has led to great success for these blackbirds, who have ranked no worse than third in rushing yards in each season dating back to 2018, finishing first on four occasions, while pacing the league thus far at 205.3 yards per game. In those two losses, they averaged just 168.0 yards on 29.5 carries (5.6 yards per attempt), which would be fine for most teams, but not these guys, who in their four straight victories have trampled the opposition to the tune of 224.0 yards on a much greater volume (37.5 carries), equating to an even more robust 6.0 yards per rush. Indeed, the tandem of Jackson and Henry (pictured together below) has quickly become a nightmare for opposing defenses, with the former gashing his last four opponents for 59.0 yards and two touchdowns on 5.4 yards per carry, while the latter has churned out 143.5 yards and SIX scores on 6.5 yards per clip. When you run the ball like that, opportunities arise in the passing game, which was the case in last weekend’s 30-23 affair against the Commanders. While Washington managed to keep the hosts below 200 yards rushing, they were absolutely eviscerated through the air, as Jackson completed a surgical 20-of-26 passes for 323 yards and a 13-yard strike to (veteran Tight End) Mark Andrews, his first foray into the end zone this year, while (Sophomore Wideout) Zay Flowers erupted for 132 yards on nine catches. However, the Ravens still managed to hold their own on the ground, rushing for 176 yards on thirty-seven carries, including 132 yards courtesy of Henry, who punched it in for two scores. Harbaugh’s charges dominated time of possession (36:08) with twenty-eight first downs and converted 6-of-10 third downs. The fact that the home side only faced ten third downs, should give you all an idea as to what kind of performance this was, folks, as Baltimore controlled the game with their rushing attack, which has so often proven to be their recipe for success. Sunday’s win marked the franchise’s THIRTY-NINTH consecutive game in the regular season with 100 rushing yards, which is the third longest such streak in NFL history, trailing the leading mark of forty-three consecutive contests that they set from 2018 to 2020. For those wondering, they are 26-14 during this particular stretch, including 6-1 when they crack the 200-yard threshold.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens are 4-2 straight-up and have been nearly as good against the spread (3-2-1) following last weekend’s push against the Commanders, parlaying to a net profit of 0.73 units. Just as they have strung together four consecutive victories, this is a team that is unbeaten versus the spread during that same stretch. Under the leadership of Harbaugh, they are 149-124-13 ATS, including 82-54 away from M&T Bank Stadium, with four consecutive covers as a road favorite. Keep an eye on that line, folks, for if it drops to a flat three points, then you should consider the fact that these birds are riding a streak of six straight covers when favored by 0.5-3.0 points. Furthermore, if that line happens to fall below three points, it is worth noting that Jackson has flourished as either a favorite or dog when the spread is under that threshold, owning a 16-5 SU record in such games, including 18-2-1 ATS, and 12-0-1 ATS in the last thirteen instances. However, Baltimore has failed to cover ten games in a row when favored by four or fewer points in the first of back-to-back road ventures, while going 3-11-1 ATS in the month of October when favored against NFC opposition, as both trends are relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, the blackbirds are 6-3 ATS as a road favorite on Monday Night Football. Looking at this particular matchup, the Ravens lead the all-time series 5-2, which includes FIVE consecutive SU victories (3-2 ATS). Interestingly, the road team has been the most profitable choice for bettors, covering each of the last six meetings. Their most recent encounter, a 27-22 affair at Raymond James Stadium two years ago, saw Baltimore rally back from a slow start in which they trailed 10-3 at halftime, only to outscore the hosts 24-12 the rest of the way. The visitors outgained the home side 453-349 in total yards thanks in large part to a commanding edge in rushing (231-44), leading to a whopping 38:23 of possession. Jackson completed 27-of-38 passes for 238 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another forty-three yards on nine carries. This game also served as a coming out for (third-year Tight End) Isaiah Likely, who caught the first score of his career, a 10-yarder at the end of the third quarter, to go along with six receptions for seventy-seven yards. The public seems to remember that one, as approximately 68% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread favor the birds, though it has been a different story with the total money being wagered, as only 44% has followed suit. On the injury front, the Ravens are largely healthy for this primetime affair, with (veteran Cornerback) Arthur Maulet (knee) and (veteran Defensive End) Brent Urban (illness) limited throughout the week of practice and are thus listed as questionable. Looking ahead, Baltimore will renew acquaintances with their bitter division rivals in their annual pilgrimage to Cleveland next weekend, before returning home to host Denver as the calendar transitions to November.
Meanwhile, after a surprising campaign that exceeded most expectations, the Buccaneers (4-2, 1st in NFC South) are proving that they possess more than enough staying power in the early stretches of this season. Indeed, Tampa Bay was supposed to be rebuilding last Fall, only to win their third consecutive division crown and each the division round of the playoffs, thanks in large part to an infusion of youth coupled with the exploits of several veterans. Of course, replacing the likes of Tom Brady is never an easy task, though it is safe to say that (Head Coach) Todd Bowles and (General Manager) Jason Licht knocked it out of the park when they took a flyer on (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield. After being selected number one overall in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Browns, Mayfield (pictured below) enjoyed some serious highs in Cleveland, including Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and the franchise’s first postseason victory since 1994. However, the former Heisman would fall out of favor with the club, who dealt him away to the Panthers after pursuing perceived upgrades at his position. Needless to say, while we believe that they would like a do-over after that monumental gaffe, Mayfield certainly struggled during 2022, where he suited up for two different teams (Carolina and Los Angeles), before hitting the offseason as an unrestricted free agent. Thankfully, he has thrived in Southern Florida where his personality and the ever-present chip on his shoulder has been a perfect fit for the Bucs; last season, he completed 64.3% of his throws for an average of 237.9 yards on 6.29 net yards per attempt, with twenty-eight touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions. Six games into this season, he has been even better, posting a career-highs in completion percentage (70.9%) and leading the league with FIFTEEN passing scores in comparison to five picks, three of which came in last weekend’s 51-27 drubbing of (division rival) New Orleans. This one was a strange one in the Big Easy, folks, as the visitors raced out to a 17-0 lead, only to concede twenty unanswered points in the second quarter, before eventually heading into intermission trailing 27-24. However, the second half was all Buccaneers, as Mayfield tossed a pair of scores followed by back-to-back rushing touchdowns from (young Tailbacks) Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker. When it was all said and done, Tampa Bay outgained the home side 594-303 in total yardage and 31-19 in first downs, including a commanding 277-81 edge in rushing, thanks to the efforts of Irving and Tucker, who combined for 217 yards on twenty-eight carries. It was an eye-opening performance from Tucker, who amassed a career-high 192 yards from scrimmage, including a 36-yard strike from Mayfield to retake the lead during that wild second period. The veteran quarterback completed 24-of-36 attempts for 325 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions, finding (veteran Wideout) Chris Godwin eleven times on thirteen targets for 125 yards and two scores, the latter of which was a 55-yarder late in the third stanza. It was another balanced effort for the offense under (new Offensive Coordinator) Liam Cohen, who has gone to great lengths to reinstitute the ground game after years of ineptitude on this front; the Bucs had ranked no better than twenty-fourth in rushing offense in any season dating back to 2019, including consecutive last-place finishes over the past two years, but are currently eighth in the league at 136.8 yards on 5.3 yards per carry (4th Overall). As for the defense, Bowles, who is well-known for his penchant for bringing pressure, wreaked havoc on (Rookie QB) Spencer Rattler, who in his first start was sacked five times, hit on four occasions, and subject to ten pressures, parlaying to a rate of 20.8%.
From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers are 4-2 both straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 1.64 units. Since the beginning of last season, this has been one of the most profitable teams in terms of the spread, owning a 16-9 mark during that span. Under the direction of Bowles, this is a franchise that is 20-22-1 versus the spread, including just 7-13 at Raymond James Stadium, though 11-7 when receiving points from the oddsmakers. However, when they’ve been getting 3.5-10.0 points, it has been a different story, with a 1-4 mark in their last five such home games, so keep an eye on that line movement, folks. Furthermore, Bowles is only 2-8 ATS in his last ten encounters with opponents above .500. As for their history on Monday Night Football, Tampa is 8-2 ATS since 1990 as a home dog, though they have managed to cover only one of their last six appearances overall. With that being said, Mayfield has been rather productive when he’s getting points, logging a 29-22 record as a dog. Of course, the former number one overall pick is VERY familiar with his opponent tonight, facing the Ravens on nine occasions during his previous stay with the Browns. He won three of those meetings, completing 58.9% of his throws for an average of 268.6 yards on 6.85 net yards per attempt, with fourteen total touchdowns and twelve total turnovers, the most he has committed versus any single opponent. Mayfield’s last encounter with Baltimore came back in 2021, a narrow 24-22 affair in which he connected on 22-of-32 passes for 190 yards, two scores and a pick. Though the aforementioned Jackson departed that contest early with an injury, it should be noted that Mayfield is only 1-5 against his former draft classmate, which includes an entertaining 47-42 affair on MNF where the two quarterbacks accounted for 653 total yards and three touchdowns apiece. Even putting up a 50-burger on the Saints last weekend, the public isn’t convinced that the Bucs will ride that momentum into tonight’s showdown at the Big Sombrero, with roughly 32% of all bets placed upon the spread siding with the hosts. However, as we stated earlier, the money is heading in the opposite direction, as approximately 56% of green is wearing red. On the injury front, (veteran Cornerback) Jamel Dean (hamstring) is out of action, though his Secondary mate, (former Pro-Bowl Safety) Antoine Winfield Jr is listed as probable after being limited by a nagging foot. (Rookie Center) Graham Barton (hamstring) is out too, while (young Tailback) Rachaad White (foot) could miss his second straight game, though (veteran Wideout) Mike Evans has been cleared to participate despite nursing a tight hamstring. Looking ahead, the Buccaneers will get an opportunity for revenge as they host the Falcons next weekend, a rematch of their epic 36-30 overtime loss two weeks ago, before heading to Arrowhead for a date with the Chiefs (a Super Bowl LV rematch) for their second appearance on MNF in three games.