8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Vikings -2.5, Total: 48.0
A pair of NFC teams residing at two very different ends of the spectrum meet in a midweek clash in the City of Angels, as the decimated Los Angeles Rams hope to finally receive reinforcements against the Minnesota Vikings, who in turn are left reeling after suffering their first loss of the campaign. Indeed, there have been a lot of pleasant surprises in the league this year and the Vikings (5-1, 2nd in NFC North) are certainly one of them, performing well beyond expectations thus far. In the eyes of many, this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Minnesota, who parted ways with (veteran Quarterback) Kirk Cousins in favor of trading up and selecting (Michigan product) J.J. McCarthy with the tenth overall selection in last Spring’s NFL Draft. However, the McCarthy era was placed on pause as the youngster suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee during his second preseason affair, opening the door for (journeyman Quarterback) Sam Darnold to take the lead. Needless to say, it has been a rollercoaster of a career for Darnold (pictured below), who after being selected third overall by the Jets back in 2018, struggled through three tough seasons in with Gang Green before being sent to the Panthers via trade. Unfortunately, he couldn’t catch on there either, eventually turning up as a backup in San Francisco two years later. (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell and (General Manager) Kwesi Adofo-Mensah opted to bring him to Minneapolis as a free agent last Spring with designs of being a veteran bridge to McCarthy, along with his familiarity with the offense. However, nobody could have imagined that we would be privy to a career renaissance from the 27-year-old, who has thus far been a major component of the Northmen’s hot start; Darnold has career-highs in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (66.5%), yards per attempt (8.4), touchdown percentage (7.3%), passer rating (104.0), and QBR (58.2). Sure, O’Connell has proven to be a masterful playcaller and (perennial Pro-Bowl Receiver) Justin Jefferson is arguably the best in the league, but this guy deserves a ton of credit for changing the narrative of his career, potentially setting up a prosperous future elsewhere once McCarthy returns from injury. With all that being said, there may be no moral victories in football, but the Vikings proved that their hot start wasn’t a fluke by going toe-to-toe with (division rival) Detroit, narrowly meeting defeat in a thrilling 31-29 affair from U.S. Bank Stadium. The hosts started quickly in this one, folks, racing out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter as they made the visitors pay for rolling the dice in their own half of the field, turning them on fourth down before (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones broke free for a 34-yard touchdown two plays later. Unfortunately, the reigning NFC North champions found their rhythm, scoring touchdowns on four consecutive drives between the end of the first quarter and the early stages of the second half, establishing a 28-17 lead. Undeterred Minnesota came firing back, scoring twelve unanswered points of their own, highlighted by a 36-yard fumble return to the house courtesy of (Sophomore linebacker) Ivan Pace. They would miss the two-point conversion though, leaving the door open for the Lions to make one final push, which they did; the visiting side swiftly traversed forty-four yards in just over two minutes, kicking the game-winner from that same distance. When it was all said and done, it was fairly equal standing from a statistical standpoint, as Detroit owned slim advantages in total yards (391-383), rushing yards (144-139), and passing yards (280-259), with both teams committing one turnover apiece and being flagged four times by the officials. Instead, the difference proved to simply be that their opponent had the ball last, which may or may not be encouraging for O’Connell & CO. Darnold completed 22-of-27 passes for 259 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Jefferson accounted for that passing score along with seven receptions for eighty-one yards. Jones amassed a touchdown and 117 yards from scrimmage on seventeen touches, while (veteran Linebacker) Andrew Van Ginkel logged a pair of sacks and the forced fumble that Pace, who also had ten tackles and a sack, returned for six.
From a betting perspective, the Vikings are 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 3.55 units, making them one of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season. Of course, they started the campaign with five consecutive wins and covers before last weekend’s defeat against Detroit, making the first time since 2016 that they managed to do so. Under the leadership of O’Connell, this is a team that is 20-18-3 versus the spread, including 11-4 away from U.S. Bank Stadium, along with 6-0-2 in their last eight games as a road favorite, including 5-0-2 when that line is between 0.5 and 3.0 points, which is the case tonight. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road favorite on Thursday nights dating back to 1990, including 8-1 ATS when coming off a SU loss. However, Minnesota is 5-7 ATS under his watch when coming off a loss, including 0-4-1 ATS in their last five outings following a defeat. Furthermore, they have covered only one of their last twelve contests as road favorites coming off a SU loss as a favorite, which is once again the case in this midweek affair. Looking at this particular matchup, the Northmen lead the all-time series against the Rams 27-18-2, which includes six victories in their past nine meetings, though it should be noted that they have dropped each of the last two encounters. The last time that these teams crossed paths was back in 2021, when Los Angeles stormed into Minneapolis and earn a 30-23 win, leading from start to finish. This was one of the final days of the Mike Zimmer era, as the hosts fell short despite outgaining the visitors 361-356 and winning the takeaway battle 3-1, while the aforementioned Jefferson hauled in eight receptions on twelve targets for 116 yards. However, a 2-of-12 showing on third down ultimately did them in. The Vikings are 3-1 SU (3-0-1 ATS) in the last four affairs that have been contested on the Rams’ home turf, but technically haven’t beaten them in Los Angeles since November 29th of 1992. On the injury front, (veteran Tight End) T.J. Hockenson is getting closer to making his return following a torn ACL that he suffered last December as the team activated him a week ago. The two-time Pro-Bowler was limited throughout the week of practice leading up to that battle with the Lions and is thus listed as questionable to participate in this midweek trip to the City of Angels. (Veteran Center) Garret Bradbury is day-to-day with knee soreness, while (fellow Offensive Lineman) Christian Darrisaw is dealing with an illness. (Young Linebacker) Blake Cashman has been dealing with an ailing toe of late as well. Looking ahead, Minnesota will return home for their lone stay in Minneapolis in a 5-week stretch, hosting Indianapolis before facing Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Chicago in succession.
Meanwhile, every season there happen so be a small handful of teams that are decimated by injuries early on and thus struggle to ever really get back on track. Well, for the second time in three years, it appears that the Rams (2-4, 4th in NFC West) are one of those teams. However, with a much younger team thanks to some brilliant drafting and development from (Head Coach) Sean McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead, the train of though was that they would be far better suited to withstand any losses on the depth chart, particularly given how well all of those young players performed in last year’s return to the playoffs. Unfortunately, that simply hasn’t been the case for Los Angeles, who have been playing with a makeshift Offensive Line missing most of its starters, a patchwork defensive backfield that you would be hard-pressed to recognize, and without arguably the team’s biggest strength, the pass-catching tandem of (Receivers) Pooka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The former, who rose stardom as an unheralded fifth-round pick shattered rookie records with 105 receptions on a whopping 160 targets for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns last season, has thus been relegated to four catches in just a few series of action thanks to a knee injury. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kupp (pictured below), whose absence last year helped set the stage for his emergence, went down with a high ankle sprain early in a Week Two loss against the Cardinals, with both players being sidelined ever since. Between the two, Kupp is the closest to making his (more on that in a bit), which will seem like a godsend to (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford, who has been carrying the attack alongside (third-year Tailback) Kyren Williams for nearly two months. The 36-year-old has completed 66.7% of his throws for an average of 232.0 yards on 5.94 net yards per attempt, which would be his lowest in any of the last five seasons that he has been healthy, along with three touchdowns opposed to four interceptions. Seriously, it has taken all of the ingenuity and experience that Stafford and McVay have had to keep this attack afloat, as the Rams rank twenty-third in points scored (19.0), twentieth in total yards (332.3), twentieth on third down (37.5%), and twenty-fifth in the red zone (47.8%). The fact that they rank next-to-last in passing scores should inform you as to just how tough it has been for two of the league’s best. Even against the fading Raiders, who are arguably worse off, earning their second victory of the campaign proved to be arduous; Los Angeles raced out to a 20-6 lead midway through the third quarter thanks to Las Vegas’ third turnover of the day leading directly to a touchdown courtesy of Williams, though an interception of Stafford, followed by a missed field goal, and then a quick punt placed them in peril in the waning moments. Fortunately for them, the visitors were even completely unable to do anything with good field position, as (Rookie Cornerback) Jaylen McCollough picked off Garnder Minshew at the 34-yard line effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, McVay’s troops managed to barely win a game in which they held their opponent to 259 total yards and a combined 2-of-11 on third and fourth down, while forcing a season-high four takeaways and possessing the football for a commanding 33:48 of clock. Going 3-of-15 on third down themselves and being penalized ten times for a loss of eighty yards didn’t help matters, but they ultimately did enough to secure the victory. Stafford completed 14-of-23 passes for 154 yards and a pick, while Williams rushed for seventy-six yards and two scores on twenty-one carries, with the McCollough snaring two interceptions, and (third-year Cornerback) Kobie Durant adding another along with a forced fumble. Ironically, that victory hasn’t been enough to quell trade rumors ahead of the looming deadline, with both Stafford and Kupp being made available for the right price. Both players are aging and pricey, with the asking price for the latter reportedly a second-round pick, as Los Angeles would even be willing to cover a portion of his salary to facilitate the deal. In ninety-four career games, the 31-year-old has totaled 585 catches, 7,213 yards, and fifty-two touchdowns, including a rare receiving triple crown in 2021, though has missed eighteen games over the last three years due to various injuries. Remember, Snead has earned quite a bit of attention for his ability to wheel and deal, and given all of the movement on the receiver market, could this be the next domino to fall?
From a betting perspective, the Rams may be 2-4 straight-up but they are just 1-5 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss off 4.09 units, making them one of the least-profitable teams in the league thus far. At this point, their lone cover came in a miraculous 27-24 rally to beat the 49ers, in which they were receiving six points, the most they have all season. Ironically, Los Angeles was a 7-point favorite last weekend against the lowly Raiders, marking the first time that they had been favored this year, though ultimately failed to cover the line despite owning a 20-6 lead in the second half. Under the direction of McVay, this is a team that is 66-61-5 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2017, including 32-36 wherever they’ve called home, 24-29 as an underdog, and 37-42 when coming off SU victory. LA is 5-1 ATS on Thursday nights over the last three years, though it should be noted that since 1990 they have covered just two out of five as a home dog in such contests. Furthermore, they have failed to cover four consecutive games in the month of October. Oh, and as for McVay’s ledger against coaches that have worked under him, he is a disappointing 3-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS, though tonight’s affair will mark the first that he has ever faced off against O’Connell, who served as his offensive coordinator from 2020 to 2021. As for Stafford, he is well acquainted with the Vikings after spending the first twelve years of his career in the AFC North, owning a 9-13 record in twenty-two meetings, completing 62.8% of his throws for an average of 244.2 yards on 5.98 net yards per attempt, with thirty-two touchdowns in comparison to fourteen interceptions. On the injury front, the Rams could also see the return of a star pass-catcher, as (former All-Pro) Cooper Kupp has been activated from injured reserve. The 2021 receiving champion was held out of action last weekend in large part tonight’s game taking place midweek, with reports out of Los Angeles suggesting that he is on course to make his first start since Week Two. As for his teammates, the Offensive Line continues to be a veritable med ward, with the likes of Alaric Jackson (suspension) and Jonah Jackson (shoulder) out indefinitely, while Steve Avila (knee) and K.T. Leveston (ankle) are likely going to miss at least another week. Defensively, (Defensive Backs) John Johnson III and is day-to-day with shoulder soreness, while Darion Kendrick is lost to IR with a knee malady. However, with Kupp due to return, the largest looming absence is that of Nacua, who was recently activated from IR as well, opening the 21-day window to return to the gridiron. Looking ahead, the Rams will make their annual pilgrimage to the Pacific Northwest to battle the Seahawks next weekend, before enjoying what should be a pair of winnable contests against the struggling Dolphins and Patriots, the latter a Super Bowl LIII rematch from Foxborough.