10:30 PM EST, CBS Sports Network – Spread: Boise State -3.5, Total: 63.0
A battle between Moutain West powerhouses takes center stage on the strip in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game, as the (No. 17) Boise State Broncos travel to Sin City to face the UNLV Rebels, who are hungry for payback. It has been nothing short of an interesting twelve months for Boise State (5-1, 2-0 in MWC), who this time last year were meandering at a game under .500 before firing (former Head Coach) Andy Avalos with four games to go. Spencer Danielson would be promoted to the interim role, with the former defensive coordinator winning out to become bowl eligible, securing the school’s first conference title in four years along the way (a convincing 44-20 triumph over UNLV), which was also their fifth since 2012. As a result, Danielson was hired for the full-time gig and quite frankly hasn’t looked back; armed with a veteran quarterback, a Heisman candidate at Tailback, and eleven returning starters on defense, the Broncos are a narrow 3-point loss against (No. 1) Oregon from being undefeated, folks, making them the most formidable Group of Five team in the country. Arguably the best decision that the 35-year-old has made thus far was bringing back a familiar face to run his offense, hiring Dirk Koetter, who has a long relationship with the program. Of course, Koetter was BSU’s head coach from 1998 to 2000 before going on to greener pastures such as Arizona State (2001-2006) and the Buccaneers (2016-2018), eventually returning to Boise as the interim offensive coordinator in 2022. Under his watch, the offense has been one of the most prolific in the nation, ranking third in points scored (46.8) on 523.0 total yards, which is nearly 100 yards per game better than the figure that they posted a year ago. No conversation about this team occurs without spending plenty of time gushing over (Junior Tailback) Ashton Jeanty, who in the eyes of many is the frontrunner for the Heisman Memorial Trophy, which would make him the first rusher to win that coveted award since 2015 (Derrick Henry). After rushing for a whopping 1,347 yards and fourteen touchdowns resulting in a MWC Offensive Player of the Year honors, Jeanty (pictured below) has been even better this Fall, churning out the most yards in the FBS (1,248) on an insane 9.9 yards per carry, with seventeen touchdowns in just six games. Nobody has been able to slow this guy down, with three different 200-yard games to his credit, including 217 yards in their 28-7 victory at Hawai’i from two weeks ago. While this trip to Honolulu may have been closer than many expected it to be, the visitors DOMINATED the game statistically, outgaining the Warriors 450-279 in total yards, including 233-15 in rushing, thanks in large part to the exploits of Jeanty, who erupted for a 54-yard jaunt to the house late in the first quarter to take an early 10-0 lead. The hosts would draw within six points late in the third period, but Danielson’s troops killed off any threat of a comeback with another Jeanty touchdown and a 44-yard scoring strike form (Sophomore Quarterback) Maddux Madsen to (Junior Wideout) Austin Bolt. When it was all said and done, Maddux completed an efficient 17-of-25 passes for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while (Junior Receiver) Cam Camper hauled in seven receptions for 111 yards. The defense racked up EIGHT sacks, including 2.5 from (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Jayden Virgin-Morgan and another two from (Senior Nickelback) Seyi Oladipo.
From a betting perspective, Boise State may be 5-1 straight-up, but they are 3-2-1 against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 0.73 units thus far. The Broncos started slowly in that regard, covering just one of their first three games, but they have been unbeaten versus the spread ever since, even if that win over Hawai’i was a push (-21). Under the direction of Danielson, this is a team that is 6-3-1 ATS, including 1-1-1 as a favorite away from Albertsons Stadium and an undefeated 4-0-1 versus their fellow MWC residents. In fact, these wild horses are 5-0-1 AS in their last six encounters with conference opponents, while covering four consecutive contests after yielding fewer than twenty points in the previous game. With that being said, they are just 1-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, BSU has never lost in six all-time meetings with UNLV, covering three of the last four affairs, including that aforementioned blowout at Allegiant Stadium from last December. This one was as lopsided as they come, folks, as Danielson’s charges bludgeoned the Rebels for 527 total yards, 301 of which came via the run, with Jeanty accounting for 153 yards and a touchdown on twenty-one carries. The defense did a number on their opponent too, relegating the hosts to eighty-one yards on twenty-eight carries and logging three takeaways, including a pair of interceptions. The public seem to remember this encounter, as a commanding 83% of all wagers placed thus far on the spread are riding with the Broncos, while a slightly larger share of the money that has changed hands (86%) has followed suit. On the injury front, (Junior Wideout) Chris Marshall is listed as day-to-day with an undisclosed malady, while (Senior Nose Tackle) Sheldon Newton, (Senior Cornerback) Markel Reed, and (Sophomore Punter) James Ferguson-Reynolds are all listed as questionable for tonight’s trip to Vegas with various bumps and bruises. Looking ahead, Boise State will return to Albertsons next weekend for a key date with San Diego State, who are all also currently unbeaten in MWC play.
Meanwhile, it has been nothing short of an interesting four weeks for UNLV (6-1, 2-0 in MWC), who for a brief time served as the epicenter for college football headlines after their former starting quarterback opted to redshirt and transfer due to controversy over an alleged NIL deal with the university. Indeed, for those looking for reasons to poke fun at the sport’s everchanging landscape, this whole saga was certainly worthy of a bag of popcorn. Allegedly, (Senior QB) Matthew Sluka transferred from Holy Cross with an agreement in place between his representatives and (Rebels’ offensive coordinator) Brennan Marion consisting of $100,000 in NIL compensation, though had received just a fraction of that ($3,000 to be exact) through three games, with the school denouncing the deal altogether. For most schools, losing your starter under such circumstances would be a serious blow, but not for (Head Coach) Barry Odom & Co, who have instead turned that controversy into motivation, winning three of their four games since Sluka’s defection. Now in his second year on the job, Odom has done a tremendous job of turning around a floundering program that hadn’t won more than five games in a season in ten years, winning NINE in last Fall. Taking over for Sluka is another FCS transfer, Hajj-Malik Williams, who has been very much a dual-threat, completing an efficient 70.5% of his throws for 838 yards on a healthy 9.5 yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, along with another 302 rushing yards and four more scores on 5.9 yards per carry. This offense has been nearly as prolific as that of their opponent tonight, averaging 43.6 points (5th in FBS) on 429.1 total yards. However, the biggest difference between these sides has been on the opposite side of the football, where Odom’s defense has been the most opportunistic unit in the country. Simply put, no team has logged more takeaways than UNLV thus far (16), with at least two of them in five games, including a whopping four turnovers on two occasions. (Sophomore Linebacker) Jackson Woodard and (Senior Safety) Jalen Catalon have posted FOUR interceptions apiece, with the latter even making a house call. Of course, this has afforded the offense the luxury of operating with excellent field position, which could very well be the key to tonight’s showdown with the Broncos. Interestingly, the turnover differential was only 1-1 in last weekend’s 33-25 rally over Oregon State, proving that this team can get the job done in other ways. Trailing 17-6 late in the first half, the Rebels clawed back into the affair by traveling seventy-five yards in five plays as Williams (pictured below) barreled into the end zone. After forcing the hosts to punt, Williams got them into field goal range in two throws, as (Freshman Kicker) Caden Chittenden nailed his third trey of the half to cut the deficit to one point. From there, it was all Rebels, who ran off seventeen unanswered points before the Beavers added a consolation touchdown and two-point conversion just outside of the two-minute warning. In the end, it was a fairly even battle for most of the night, with the difference being that the visiting side managed to finish their drives with touchdowns, as Williams did so on three occasions, making up for an erratic passing performance with sixty-five yards and a pair of rushing scores on thirteen carries. As a team, the Rebels churned out 188 yards on forty attempts, with Jai’Den Thomas and Kylin Thomas adding another 104 yards collectively. However, let’s show some love to Senior Wideout) Ricky White III, who along with nine receptions for eighty-eight yards and a late 22-yard touchdown to stretch the lead to sixteen points, turned the momentum of the affair with a clutch blocked punt just before halftime, setting up Chittenden’s field goal. This has become something of a habit for the Michigan State transfer, who already has THREE blocked punts this season alone.
From a betting perspective, UNLV are 6-1 straight-up, but they have been nearly as good against the spread (5-2), parlaying to a net profit of 2.55 units thus far. This is a team that started the season 4-0 both SU and ATS, before dropping back-to-back games in that latter regard before last weekend’s come-from-behind victory in Corvalis (-6.5). Under the leadership of Odom, they are a stellar 15-6 versus the spread, including 5-4 at Allegiant Stadium, though just 1-1 when receiving points from the oddsmakers in such contests. He is also 4-1 ATS with revenge, which is notable given that his troops were blown away in that fateful MWC Championship Game from last December. If the Rebels prove victorious tonight, then it will be their first against Boise State in the history of their program, with none of the previous six meetings being remotely close; all-time, they have been outscored by the Broncos by a staggering 146 points, which translates to a sizeable margin of 24.3 points. Last year’s meeting saw UNLV completely unable to keep pace with the ponies, mustering just 298 total yards with eighty-one coming on the ground, while (former Quarterback) Jayden Maiava completed roughly half of his passes (15-of-29) for just 166 yards and a pair of interceptions. White reeled in six receptions for eighty-six yards, but that was about all she wrote for the Rebels, who would go on to lose a shootout to Kansas in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl three weeks later. As we stated earlier, the public isn’t buying anything that the good folks in Las Vegas are selling at the moment, with approximately 17% of all wagers being placed thus far backing Odom & Co, while an even smaller share of the green (14%) wearing red. On the injury front, this is a largely healthy team with no major situations to report at this point. Looking ahead, UNLV will enjoy their second and final bye week of the campaign before making the trip across the Pacific to Honolulu to face Hawai’i before returning to Sin City to host San Diego State, which as we touched upon before, is one of four remaining undefeated teams in MWC play.