3:30 PM EST, CBS/Paramount+ – Spread: Oregon -22, Total: 54.5
Thanks to the ever-expanding BIG Ten and SEC we keep getting more and more battles between ranked opponents that would have typically been reserved for postseason bowls, with yet another on tap this evening from Eugene, as the newly minted top-ranked int he country, the Oregon Ducks, battle the (No. 20) Illinois Fighting Illini. With five of their residents occupying a place in the AP Poll, the BIG Ten is well represented, though we would forgive you for not noticing the lowest ranked of their number, Illinois (6-1, 3-1 in BIG Ten), who are enjoying quite the campaign this Fall. While they’re not as glamorous as the likes of (No. 1) Oregon, (No. 3) Penn State, or (No. 4) Ohio State and haven’t been the feel-good surprise package that has been (No. 13) Indiana, the Illini have successfully bounced back from a disappointing 5-7 finish, surpassing that win total before November. Indeed, in his second year in Champaign, (Head Coach) Brett Bielema led his troops to a stunning 7-1 start on the strength of the stingiest defense in the country before finishing with 8-5, which was their best record since 2007. However, a much tougher schedule coupled with an exodus of talent, including the departure of (Defensive Coordinator) Ryan Walters, turned 2023 into a rebuilding year for Bielema, though he should be commended as the seeds planted have given birth to a bountiful harvest. So, what has changed in Champaign, you ask? Well, after being a rather stagnant unit for years now, the offense has gradually found its legs, improving to 29.6 points per game (63rd in FBS) on 365.6 total yards, benefitting greatly from cleaner play with far fewer turnovers. Last season, Illinois committed an untenable TWENTY-THREE turnovers, parlaying to a differential of -8, though have flipped the script in this regard, with just six through the first seven games (+7). A lot of this can be traced to the growth of (Junior Quarterback) Luke Altmyer, who is far more comfortable operating the attack in his second season after transferring from Ole Miss. Altmyer (pictured below) has completed 65.9% of his throws for 1,506 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt, with an FBS-best FIFTEEN touchdowns opposed to just one lone interception. Keep in mind that he had a TD/INT ratio of 13/10 last Fall, which speaks to his growth in terms of decision-making. It has also helped that the defense has rediscovered its form to a degree under (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Henry, who had a tough run of it replacing Walters last Fall. The Illini went from conceding 12.8 points per contest in 2022 to 29.4 in 2023, only to drop back down to 18.1 (22nd in FBS), proving difficult to pass against in shipping 198.9 yards on 6.7 yards per attempt, while logging thirteen takeaways. This was a major component of their 21-7 victory over (No. 24) Michigan last weekend, their first over the Wolverines since 2009. The hosts held the reigning national champions scoreless on their first four possessions of the afternoon, before ultimately relinquishing just one touchdown on the afternoon, including a total 332 yards. Bielema’s charges only amassed 267 yards on the day themselves, including a scant eighty through the air, but throttled the visitors for 187 rushing yards on thirty-eight carries, while forcing three turnovers and a late turnover on downs, not to mention benefitting from a missed field goal to boot. Altmyer completed 9-of-18 passes, though found (Senior Tight End) Tanner Arkin for a short touchdown midway through the second quarter, before effectively killing game off with a 1-yard rushing score in the third period. The QB gained forty-eight yards with his legs, while (Tailbacks) Josh McCray and Aidan Laughery combined for another 104 yards. Defensively, the Illini forced three fumbles, recovering one, while (Junior Safety) Matthew Bailey picked off Jack Tuttle deep in home territory. Henry’s unit totaled seven tackles for loss and five sacks, with (Junior Linebacker) Gabe Jacas and (Junior Defensive Tackle) TaReh Edwards accounting for all but a half of that number.
From a betting perspective, Illinois is 6-1 straight-up and has been nearly as good against the spread (5-2), parlaying to a net profit of 2.55 units thus far. This is a team that has followed something of a pattern this season, covering their first two games before failing to do so in their third, only to repeat that series of results over the next three contests, which includes their outright win over Michigan last weekend (+6). Under the leadership of Bielema, they are 23-21 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2021, including a stellar 12-5 away from Champaign and 10-3 as a road dog. Furthermore, the Illini have covered TEN of their last eleven games on the road when receiving more than two points from the oddsmakers over the past three seasons, which is the case this evening. With that being said, they are also 0-5 as road dogs of fewer than forty points and coming off a double-digit SU victory, when battling an opponent fresh off a SU win of their own, which is also the case today. Oh, and in case you were wondering, the last time that Illinois knocked off the top-ranked team in the country was back in 2007, when they toppled Ohio State in a wild 28-21 affair in Columbus. As a program, they are 3-14 SU against such opposition, with their last showdown coming back in 2015 against the Buckeyes (28-3). Looking at this particular matchup, the Illini have beaten the Ducks just once in three all-time meetings, with the lone win coming back in 1970. There most recent encounter, a 34-31 defat back in 1995 saw the visitors relinquish a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter, shipping a pair of touchdowns, including a recovered fumble in the end zone. The public happens to be thinking that they are receiving way too many points in this one, as roughly 65% of all the money that has been wagered on the spread thus far is backing the team clad in blue and orange, while a far greater share of the money (91%) has followed suit. On the injury front, their leading rusher, (Sophomore Tailback) Kaden Feagin recently underwent season-ending surgery to repair an undisclosed injury, while (Sophomore Wideout) Ashton Hollins met the same fate a week ago. Looking ahead, Illinois will return home to host Minnesota and Michigan State in back-to-back weeks before enjoying their second and final bye of the campaign. From there it will be road ventures to Rutgers and Northwestern, though each of these remaining games appears winnable for Bielema & Co, who could be looking at their first 10-win season since 2001.
Meanwhile, for the first time since 2012, Oregon finds (7-0, 4-0 in BIG Ten) themselves sitting atop the polls, though they’ll be hoping to enjoy that distinction longer this time around. You see, twelve years ago, the Ducks met defeat in a mid-November affair at home against Stanford, ultimately sending them to the Fiesta Bowl instead of the BCS Championship Game. Of course, none of the previous three teams to own that ranking this Fall have managed to hold onto it for long either, which should be cause for concern for (Head Coach) Dan Lanning and his charges. After all, Georgia came into the campaign as preseason number one, though held onto the spot for three weeks before conceding that honor to Alabama, who in turn threw it away a week later. And we all know what happened to Texas last weekend, so you can imagine the anxiety that the good folks in Eugene may be feeling at the moment. With that being said, there is an argument to be made that UO is hitting their stride at the right time, particularly after enduring some close calls earlier in the season; the Ducks survived their opening two contests against the likes of Idaho (24-14) and Boise State (37-34), though have otherwise handled their business against all comers not hailing from the land of potatoes, including a major 32-31 upset of Ohio State two weeks ago. Despite being home dogs for the first time since 2018, Oregon toppled the Buckeyes in large part to the stellar play of (Senior Quarterback) Dillon Gabriel, who torched the second-ranked team in the country for 391 total yards and three touchdowns, including a 27-yard jaunt to the end zone retake the lead early in the fourth quarter. Tray as you may, but there are few in the country that have been more traveled than Gabriel (pictured below), who is on his third different school in four years. The former UCF Knight and Oklahoma Sooner was one of the most sought-after talents in the transfer portal, though his choice to take his talents to the Pacific Northwest is paying major dividends; thus far, he has completed a surgical 77.0% of his throws for 2,098 yards on a healthy 9.3 yards per attempt, with fourteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while rushing for another four scores and ninety-two yards on thirty-three carries. As such, the attack may not be as prolific as it was last Fall, but it has still been very productive, averaging 34.6 points per game (27th in FBS) on 461.1 total yards, equating to 6.8 yards per play. Thankfully, the defense hasn’t missed a beat since transitioning to the BIG Ten, with Lanning’s troops shipping just 16.6 points (14th in FBS) on 297.9 total yards, including 175.6 yards versus the pass on 6.07 yards per attempt. This unit really flexed their muscles in last weekend’s 35-0 shutout at Purdue, which had all the makings of a letdown after that aforementioned triumph over Ohio State. Traveling across country to West Lafayette, the visitors dominated a Boilermakers side that ironically scored a season-high forty-nine points against Illinois a week before, though nonetheless relegated them to 301 total yards. The birds held them to 4-of-12 on third down and 0-for-3 on fourth down, while yielding a scant ninety-three yards on 9-of-19 passes, with a pair of takeaways along the way. Sure, they were gashed for 208 rushing yards, which is something that we’re sure Lanning will be harping on, but this one was never in question, folks, as Gabrel & Co racked up 421 total yards, converted 5-of-9 third downs, and passed for 290 yards on an efficient 21-of-25 throws. (Junior Receiver) Tez Johnson hauled in seven receptions for sixty-six yards and a score, while (fellow Junior) Evan Stewart reeled in four balls for ninety-six yards. As for the Backfield, the tandem of Jordan James and Noah Whittington combined for ninety-two rushing yards and three total touchdowns, with the latter receiving a scoring pass from Gabriel early in the fourth quarter.
From a betting perspective, Oregon may be sitting undefeated at 7-0, but it has been a very different story against the spread where they are a middling 3-4, parlaying to a net loss of 1.27 units. As is often the case with powerhouses such as these, the spreads have been sizable to say the least, with the Ducks facing six lines of 17.5 points or greater, including a pair north of thirty. Unsurprisingly, there record versus the spread in such contests is just 2-4, though they did manage to cover that 30.5-point spread in last weekend’s shutout at Purdue. Under the direction of Lanning, this is a program that is a stellar 22-12 ATS since his arrival back in 2022, including 9-6 ATS when favored at Autzen Stadium (three straight non-covers), and 13-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit SU win, which is the case this evening. Furthermore, these birds have covered five straight games against opposition coming off an outright win as an underdog, though are currently just 2-2 ATS in BIG Ten play, while posting a 1–5-mark ATS over their last six outings after allowing twenty or less points. Looking at this particular matchup, it has been quite a while since these schools have crossed paths on the gridiron, thirty years to be exact, though it should be noted that Oregon hasn’t lost to Illinois since their first-ever meeting, a 20-16 affair back in 1970. So far, the public appears to be balking at the 21.5-point spread, with only 35% of wagers being placed on this front favoring the Ducks, while a far smaller share of the green (9%) has followed suit to the home side. On the injury front, there aren’t expected to be any major absences of note, but there are several players listed as questionable to participate in this showdown in Eugene, though tight end could be a thin position group with the likes of Terrance Ferguson, Travis Brashear, and A.J. Pugliano all wearing that designation due to various maladies. (Wideouts) Gary Bryant, Kyle Kasper, and Jack Ressler are all in the same boat, though keep an eye on (Senior Edge-Rusher) Jordan Burch; the former South Carolina transfer was borderline dominant last year, while racking up five sacks, seven tackles for loss, and four deflected passes this Fall despite missing last two games with an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, Lanning & Co will travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan, before squaring off with Maryland and (at) Wisconsin in the ensuing weeks, followed by their final bye and a visit from (longtime Pac-12 foe) Washington. They should be favored in each of their remaining four regular season games, which puts them in excellent position to head into a potential BIG Ten Championship Game undefeated, effectively cementing their place in the expanded Playoff.