8:20 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: 49ers -4.5, Total: 47.5
A classic rivalry is renewed tonight albeit with two sides who are uncharacteristically desperate for a win, as the struggling Dallas Cowboys emerge from their bye week to travel to Levi’s Stadium to battle the decimated San Francisco 49ers, who are dropping like flies. Needless to say, this is NOT how the Cowboys (3-3, 3rd in NFC East) expected the early stages of the 2024 campaign to play out, though a strong argument can be made that they are simply reaping what they have sewn. What are we hinting at, you ask? Well, after getting embarrassed at home in last January’s NFC Divisional Round, it was a mild surprise that the club didn’t part ways with (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy, particularly when you consider the quality of candidates that were available (Belichick, Harbaugh, Vrabel, Saban), who effectively enters the final year of his contract without a new deal. Sure, the 60-year-old is 73-45 (.616) in his four years in North Texas, including three straight 12-5 campaigns, but he has continued to hit the proverbial wall in the playoffs (1-3), failing to progress past the second round. And then there is the loss of (Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn, who had done a tremendous job of directing once of the league’s finest units over the previous three years, would have been an obvious candidate to replace him as well, though he opted to take the Commanders head job, strengthening an immediate rival. Lastly, the Pokes were unable to replenish a number of positions on both sides of the ball due to ongoing negotiations with both (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Dak Prescott and (All-Pro Wideout) CeeDee Lamb, who together were in search of lucrative new renewals that were eventually granted. As a result, the Cowboys have featured a woefully unbalanced offense with little to offer outside of Prescott and Lamb (pictured together below), while the defense, now headed by the venerable Mike Zimmer, has largely been a sieve, particularly against the run. Indeed, whether running the ball or defending it, Dallas has struggled mightily in the trenches, ranking dead-last in rushing offense (77.2 yards per game) on a scant 2.5 yards per carry, while conceding 143.5 rushing yards (27th Overall) on 4.5 yards per attempt (16th Overall). Granted, the defense has been without a wealth of defenders up front, including (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Micah Parsons along with (Defensive Linemen) DeMarcus Lawrence and Sam Williams, while (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) DaRon Bland, who amassed SIX interception returns for scores a year ago, has yet to play due to a lingering foot injury. Add it all up and they’re very good when it comes to Prescott and Lamb playing pitch and catch, but they have left a lot to be desired virtually everywhere else. When we last saw them, they were absolutely embarrassed in a 47-9 blowout at home against the Lions two weeks ago, a one-sided affair that in which they were outgained 492-251 in total yards, 184-53 in rushing yards, 334-224 in passing yards, and 27-16 in first downs, and lost the takeaway battle 5-1. After getting on the board first with a 34-yard field goal courtesy of (Sophomore Kicker) Brandon Aubrey, the hosts were helpless as Detroit ran off TWENTY-SEVEN unanswered points with only a pair of field goals from Aubrey pausing the visitor’s momentum. McCarthy’s troops were a combined 4-of-17 on third and fourth down, with Prescott relegated to 178 yards and two interceptions on 17-of-33 passing, suffering four sacks, seven hits, ten hurries, and an insane TWENTY-ONE pressures, which equates to 55.3% of his drop-backs. Oh, and did we mention that this all took place on (longtime Owner) Jerry Jones’ eighty-second birthday? It’s going from bad to worse in Dallas, folks…
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys may be 3-3 straight-up, but they are only 2-4 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 2.18 units. After winning and covering their opener in Cleveland as 2-point underdogs, this is a team that has covered just one of their last five games, which coincidentally also came as a road dog (+2.5) against AFC North competition (Pittsburgh). Under the leadership of McCarthy, they are 41-46 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2020, including 21-18 away from AT&T Stadium, 12-13 as a dog, 4-6 after relinquishing 35+ points, and 17-13 with revenge. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover four straight games as a road dog of 3.5-10.0 points, while being mired in a comparable stretch as dogs after allowing 35+ points, which both trends relevant tonight. However, dating back to 1990, they are 10-15 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers away from North Texas on Sunday nights, and it should be noted that they have already won outright in such a scenario three weeks ago (again, Pittsburgh). Lastly, Big D has covered just three of their last nineteen contests following a non-conference home game and facing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss, which is precisely the case in this trip to Santa Clara. Looking at this particular matchup, the Cowboys trail the all-time series with the 49ers 19-20-1, though have dropped each of the last three encounters (0-3 ATS), including each of the last two which have taken place at Levi’s Stadium. After narrowly meeting defeat in the 2022 NFC Division Round (19-12), McCarthy & Co were blown away in a 42-10 affair little over a year ago, a miserable performance in which they were held to a season-low 197 total yards and eight first downs with four turnovers. It was a rough night at the office for everyone, particularly Prescott, who completed 14-of-24 passes for 153 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions, while taking three sacks, four hits, and seven pressures. Over the course of his career, he has met San Francisco on five occasions, owning a 2-3 record in which he has completed 61.4% of his throws for an average of 218.4 yards per game on 6.38 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, while suffering eleven sacks. Of course, two of those three losses have come in the postseason, where he owns a 2/3 TD/INT ratio. The public seems to be keen on this, as roughly 45% of all wagers placed upon the spread thus far have sided with the visitors, though the money is telling a different story with 58% of all the green following suit. On the injury front, the aforementioned duo of Parsons and Bland are getting closer to returning and are currently listed as day-to-day, with respective foot maladies, while (Rookie Tackle) Tyler Guyton (knee), (veteran Linebacker) Eric Kendricks (calf), and (young Cornerback) Caelen Carson (shoulder) are in the same boat. Looking ahead, the road forward remains hellish for the Cowboys, who will travel to Atlanta to meet the Falcons next weekend, before returning home to host their bitter rivals, the Eagles, followed by a lone star affair with the Texans.
Meanwhile, we have said it before, but there are a small handful of teams every season that become absolutely ravaged by injuries, with the 49ers (3-4, 3rd in NFC West) unfortunately falling into that category. Indeed, the reigning NFC Champions are going through it, with a slew of maladies plaguing them on both sides of the football, particularly their star performers. Chief among them has been the prolonged absence of reigning Offensive Player of the year, Christian McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459), total touches (339), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and total touchdowns (21). Unfortunately, McCaffrey (pictured below) has been sidelined throughout the campaign thus far thanks to ongoing soreness to his calf and Achilles, even traveling to Germany to seek treatment. While this is certainly a talented offense, the 28-year-old is the difference between them being good and great. With (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan calling plays, McCaffrey is utilized as the ultimate chess piece, creating mismatches with Linebackers and Safeties, while proving to be an utter savant within the red zone. Basically, opponents have to defend San Francisco completely differently when he’s on the field. In this case, the numbers don’t lie, folks; with McCaffrey in action, the Niners are 26-7 in comparison to 3-5 without him. This was the case in last weekend’s seismic Super Bowl rematch with the Chiefs, whose defense was hard enough for them to compensate for with a healthy McCaffrey in the Backfield. The 28-18 affair saw Shanahan lose his fifth consecutive duel with his counterpart in Kansas City, with the hosts relegated to just 310 total yards, which is by far and away a season-low for San Francisco. The story of this one was the reigning champs were busy scoring touchdowns while the runners-up were settling for field goals, and even when they managed to breach the end zone, which they did via a shot touchdown run from (young Quarterback) Brock Purdy midway through the third quarter, they couldn’t keep the visitors from doing the same. When it was all said and done, the Niners converted 2-of-11 third downs, lost the takeaway battle 3-2, and only possessed the football for a meager 24:56, which is the most telling statistic of the afternoon. Since 2019, this is a team that is a middling 21-20 when losing the time of possession battle, including 2-6 when they’ve been on the ball for less than twenty-five minutes. Purdy rushed for two touchdowns, though completed just 17-of-31 passes for212 yards and three interceptions, while (veteran Tight End) George Kittle stepped up to haul in six of seven targets for ninety-two yards. At one point, it felt as if he was literally the only pass-catcher available for Shanahan, as both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk left the game, the former due to an illness and a sore wrist, while the latter tore both his ACL and MCL, ending his campaign altogether. San Fran will be counting on a largely unproven receiving corps moving forward, featuring unheralded pass-catchers such as Jacob Cowing, Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell, and Ricky Pearsall, who was making his debut after suffering a gunshot wound in an attempted robbery shortly before the season began. Shanahan is as a good as it gets as an offensive playcaller, though he’ll need to dip deep into his grimoire in order to make this all work…
From a betting perspective, the 49ers are 3-4 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 1.27 units. Dating back to last season, they have gone fifteen games without back-to-back covers, logging a disappointing 5-10 mark along the way. Under the direction of Shanahan, this is a team that is 69-63-2 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2017, including 31-33 at Levi’s Stadium, 41-44 as a favorite, and 26-25 when coming off a loss. San Francisco has covered eleven of their last thirteen outings following a non-conference home game, though it should be noted that they have dropped two such affairs already this Fall. Since 1990, they are 7-10 ATS when favored at home on Sunday nights, which includes their aforementioned 42-10 demolition of Dallas last season. This one was as one-sided a battle as you’ll find throughout the long, storied history of this rivalry, as the Niners outgained the visitors 421-197 in total yards, 170-57 in rushing yards, 251-140 in passing yards, 25-8 in first downs, and won the takeaway battle 4-1. Purdy authored one of the finest performances of his young career, completing 17-of-24 passes for 252 yards and four touchdowns, while the absent McCaffrey was very present with seventy-eight yards from scrimmage on twenty-one touches and a rushing score. His understudy, (Sophomore Tailback) Jordan Mason made an impression with sixty-nine rushing yards and touchdown of his own on ten carries, while Kittle hauled in three passes all of which were scores. (3-time All-Pro Linebacker) Fred Warner was in his bag, with eight tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and an interception. As we covered earlier, the 49ers own a slim advantage in the all-time series, though have taken three consecutive contests, all of which have seen the spread covered to boot. Purdy has yet to lose against the Cowboys in two career meetings, completing an efficient 67.9% of his throws for 233.0 yards per game on a healthy 8.45 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns and zero turnovers. The public is favoring San Francisco in this one, with approximately 55% of all the wagers placed upon the spread thus far riding with the hosts, though as we stated earlier, the money has been moving in the opposite direction (42%). On the injury front, Shanahan has had his hands full, with a litany of issues to deal with. While the likes of McCaffrey (calf/Achilles), Dre Greenlaw (Achilles), Javon Hargrave (triceps), and Talanoa Hufanga (wrist) have all yet to play this year, while Samuel is listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s contest. Furthermore, their receiving depth could become even more compromised with Jauan Jennings (hip) listed as questionable. Looking ahead, the bye week can’t come quick enough for the Niners, who are desperate to get an opportunity to rest and get healthier, which they’ll absolutely need as they face the (at) Buccaneers, Seahawks, (at) Packers, (at) Bills, and Bears all in succession.