8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Jets -2.5, Total: 42.5
Happy Halloween from the good folks here at Oracle Sports, as two teams who came into this season harboring championship aspirations only to find themselves traveling in very different directions clash in the Meadowlands, as the Houston Texans take on the struggling New York Jets from MetLife Stadium. Despite sitting comfortably in first place within their division, the Texans (6-2, 1st in AFC South) have left us all a bit wanting thus far, certainly in comparison to their competition at the top of the AFC. Whereas Kansas City, Baltimore, and even Buffalo all look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders, this is a team that despite being an improvement over last season, may not have improved enough. Indeed, expectations are a tricky thing, folks, and for the first time in quite a while, Houston is shouldering that burden. After improving by SEVEN games and winning the division last Fall, (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans took it one step farther and won a playoff game, leaving many to wonder what could be next for this budding group. After all, he and (General Manager) Nick Caserio hit home run after home run in the 2023 NFL Draft, selecting the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year in the form of (Quarterback) C.J. Stroud and (Edge-Rusher), along with a number of other contributors such as (Wideout) Tank Dell. Furthermore, they managed to retain the services of (in-demand Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Slowik, while adding a slew of veteran playmakers on both sides of the football via trade and free agency, including (Tailback) Joe Mixon, (Edge-Rusher) Danielle Hunter, (Defensive Tackle) Denico Autry, and most notably (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs. In the past, we’ve seen teams look to surround young quarterbacks with as much talent as possible to take advantage of the window of opportunity while they’re on a cheap salary, with the Texans the latest subscriber to that playbook. However, with eight games in the books, is it possible for a 6-2 side to be underwhelming? Despite ranking ninth in total offense (373.9) and second in total defense (280.3), Houston sits in the middle of the pack in points scored and allowed, outscoring their opposition by a slim margin of just 1.1 points per game. Seriously, folks, this is a group that is outgaining their opponents by nearly 100 yards per contest, though struggling to outscore them. So, what could the problem be, you ask? First, they’ve found themselves settling for far too many field goals thus far, with (veteran Kicker) Ka’imi Fairbairn drilling nineteen of his twenty-one attempts thus far, including a whopping NINE of ten from 50+ yards, which is a sign of the offense running out of steam once the cross midfield. Again, they may be ninth in total yards, but that doesn’t mean that they’ve consistently sustained drives, averaging 29.6 yards per possession (18th Overall). The other problem has been the red zone, particularly for a defense that has otherwise been stellar. Ryans’ troops have shipped fourteen touchdowns on twenty opportunities, which translates to 70.0% the third-highest figure in the NFL. This is why only one of their victories has been by more than six points, with the lone outlier being a 41-21 deluge against New England in which the takeaway battle was heavily in their favor (4-1). This was the case in last weekend’s 23-20 triumph over the Colts, in which the hosts struggled to put away their division rivals. After rallying back from an early 10-3 deficit, the Texans scored seventeen unanswered points to lead 20-10 in the second half. It appeared that they would coast from there, only for Stroud (pictured below) to fumble away a promising drive ending at Indianapolis’ 8-yard line, though the visitors would be unable to inflict any more damage, losing a fumble of their own on their final possession. When it was all said and done, Houston outgained Indy 363-303 in total yards, 21-17 in first downs, won the takeaway battle 2-1 and possessed the football for a commanding 35:20 despite being outrushed 163-96. However, they were just 4-of-13 on third down (30.7%), while gaining a disappointing 3.3 yards per carry. Stroud completed 25-of-37 passes for 285 yards and a 7-yard strike to Dell to take the lead just before halftime, while Mixon amassed 134 yards from scrimmage and a rushing score on an industrious twenty-nine touches. Defensively, (third-year Safety) Jalen Pitre’s interception of Anthony Richardson set up that momentum-shifting touchdown to Dell, while Hunter led the way with a pair of sacks and four pressures. No defender in the NFL has posted a higher pressure percentage thus far than the 4-time Pro-Bowler at over 22.0%.
From a betting perspective, the Texans may be 6-2 straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread (3-5), parlaying to a net loss of 2.27 units. The disconnect between the two marks has been the fact that this is a team that has been favored in all but one of their games thus far, only to master the difficult task of winning without covering, which they have done FOUR times already, including last weekend’s win over Indianapolis. Under the leadership of Ryans, they are 13-14 versus the spread since his return to the franchise that drafted him back in 2006, including 4-6 in their last ten games overall, 5-5 in their past ten trips away from NRG Stadium, and 6-2 off an encounter with their AFC South brethren (7-0 after a division home game!). Dating back to the inception of their franchise in 2002, this is a club that is 1-3 ATS on Thursdays as a road dog. With that being said, Houston has shined as a road underdog, covering SEVEN of their last eight ventures away from Southern Texas when receiving between 0.5-3.0 points from the oddsmakers, which believe it or not, is the case tonight. With that being said, they have typically struggled against AFC East opponents, registering a 3-5 ATS record in their last eight such matchups, though it should be noted that they have covered each of their previous two tilts against those teams, besting the Bills (23-20) and Patriots (41-21) in succession. Looking at this particular matchup, the Texans have beaten the Jets just three times in ten all-time meetings, covering just two of them along the way (2-7-1). When these sides crossed paths last Fall, Houston’s momentum came to a screeching halt in a 30-6 drubbing at the Meadowlands, where they were relegated to a scant 135 total yards on ten first downs. Stroud & Co struggled MIGHTILY in this one, folks, converting only one for their twelve attempts on third down and none of their tries on fourth, with the eventual Offensive Rookie of the Year completing a meager 10-of-23 throws for ninety-one yards, suffering four sacks and eight pressures along the way. Perhaps even more disappointing was the performance of the defense, which fell victim to none other than Zach Wilson, who shredded them for 301 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 27-of-36 passing. With that being said, the public doesn’t care about that previous affair, for an overwhelming 86% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are siding with the visitors, while an even greater share of the money (94%) has followed suit. On the injury front, the Texans are dropping flies, particularly in the passing game, where the aforementioned Diggs has been lost for the season due to a torn ACL suffered towards the end of last Sunday’s win. Houston is already without the services of (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Nico Collins (hamstring) for at least a few more weeks, meaning that the considerable cache of weapons that they began the year with has been left rather depleted. Furthermore, (veteran Linebacker) Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and (ageless Safety) Jimmie Ward (groin) have been limited throughout the short practice week with various maladies, though (Linebacker) Henry To’oTo’o is looking like a go after dealing with the aftereffects of a concussion last week. Looking ahead, the Texans will be hoping that they make it out of tonight’s trip to MetLife with minimal damage for next weekend they will be hosting the mighty Lions in what could be seen as a potential Super Bowl preview, before making the short trip north to Arlington to battle the struggling Cowboys.
Meanwhile, has there been a more disappointing team in the NFL thus far than Jets (2-6, 4th in AFC East), who have now dropped four consecutive losses plummeting them to the basement of the division. After their ill-fated revolution was postponed following the season-ending torn Achilles of (4-time MVP Quarterback) Aaron Rodgers, the pressure was on Gang Green to contend in 2024, with the franchise desperate to snap the longest current postseason drought in the league at THIRTEEN years. However, unless something dramatically changes for the better, they are staring at a fourteenth straight season without playoff football as this season is becoming an unmitigated disaster for everyone involved. So, what in the name of Joe Namath is going in the Meadowlands, you ask? Well, let’s start with Rodgers (pictured below), who despite starting all eight games has looked like a shell of the generational talent that he was for nearly two decades in Green Bay. The 40-year-old is completing the lowest percentage of his passes since 2015 (61.6%), averaging his fewest net yards per attempt since 2017 (5.83), and his highest interception percentage since he became a starter back in 2008 (2.5%) with seven picks already. Keep in mind that this guy owns the all-time career record for lowest interception rate (1.4%). While age and the bumps and bruises that come with it have certainly factored into his decline, the situation around him has been far from ideal. Despite bolstering the Offensive Line in free agency, he has still been sacked eighteen times, while the ground game has mustered a scant 86.1 yards per game (30th Overall) on 3.9 yards per carry (29th Overall). This is where the Jets have really been disappointing, folks, for the initial gameplan was to pound the rock with the backfield tandem of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, allowing Rodgers to play complementary football for the first time in his career. However, that lack of balance is a big reason why (former Head Coach) Robert Saleh was fired and why (former Offensive Coordinator) Nathaniel Hackett was demoted from playcalling duties. Unfortunately, his successor, Todd Downing, has seen a more productive ground game at 4.5 yards per carry, but they haven’t been able to commit to it (95.7 yards). Oh, and the defense, which had been remained one of the best in the NFL despite all of their other problems has seen a dip in form now that (Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Ulbrich has replaced Saleh in the hot seat. Though he is still calling plays on that side of the football, Ulbrich’s troops have relinquished 28.3 points on 338.7 total yards in the three games since he was promoted, including a worrying 136.7 versus the run, while failing to force a single turnover during that stretch. It all came to a head in last weekend’s annual pilgrimage to Foxborough, where what was thought to be a proverbial get-right game proved to be anything but that, as the Jets fell 25-22 to a team that has previously lost six consecutive contests. After taking an early 13-7 lead on the strength of back-to-back touchdown passes from Rodgers, the visitors were forced to punt on three of their next four possessions, eventually finding themselves trailing 17-16 midway through the fourth quarter. They would cap off a 10-play, 70-yard drive with a short jaunt into the end zone courtesy of Allen, but that wouldn’t be enough, for after failing to get the two-point conversion, Gang Green proceeded to ship a 12-play, 70-yard drive to one of the worst offenses in the league, culminating in a touchdown and a successful two-point attempt, effectively ending the affair altogether. It was a weird game by all accounts as Rodgers & Co outgained the Patriots 336-248, were reasonably balanced offensively with 233 passing yards in comparison to 112 rushing yards, and didn’t commit a single turnover, though were nonetheless ruing wasted opportunities, including a crucial 44-yard field goal that (veteran Kicker) Greg Zuerlein missed early in the final stanza, which was preceded by a sack of Rodgers at New England’s 17-yard line. Speaking of the aging QB, he completed 17-of-28 passes for 233 yards and those two scores, while Hall rushed for eighty yards on sixteen carries, along with thirty-two for Allen on twelve attempts. Rodgers’ longtime collaborator, (6-time Pro-Bowl Wideout) Davante Adams, whom New York acquired via trade two weeks ago, reeled in four of six targets fifty-four yards. Since reuniting with his quarterback, Adams has been targeted fifteen times for seven catches and eighty-four yards.
From a betting perspective, the Jets are 2-6 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 4.18 units, making them one of the least profitable teams in the league. Gang Green is currently mired in a 5-game skid without a win or a cover, with three of those outings remarkably coming as a favorite, including last weekend’s dismal showing in Foxborough. Since Ulbrich took over for the dismissed Saleh, this is a team that has yet to log a dub in either category (0-3 SU/ATS), whether receiving points or laying them, with the latter somehow the case once again this week. Dating back to last season, New York is 3-7 ATS in their last ten games overall, 4-6 ATS in their past ten outings at MetLife Stadium, and 2-7-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are 0-6-1 in their last seven games when favored by 0.5-3.0 points, which is the case tonight, while failing to cover five consecutive contests versus teams over .500. They are also 0-9 ATS in their past nine games following a SU defeat as a favorite against a conference opponent, with this matchup being the third time this season that they’ve been in this position. As far as Thursdays go, the club is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite in these midweek clashes since 1990 and haven’t covered nine of their last ten encounters with opposition outside of the AFC East. With that being said, there are some more positive trends to consider here, folks, the first being that the Jets have covered ELEVEN straight games at home against non-division opponents. They have also beaten the spread in four of their last five outings immediately following a meeting with the Patriots, though it should be noted that they were beaten the Broncos in a listless 10-9 affair when placed in that same scenario a month ago. Looking at this particular matchup, Ulbrich should be thankful that his troops have some very good tape to refer to as they prepare to host the Texans, whom they dominated in last year’s 30-6 encounter. As we covered earlier, New York held Houston well below their typical thresholds, while the aforementioned Wilson went OFF, with most his attention drawn towards (third-year Wideout) Garrett Wilson, who hauled in nine receptions on fourteen targets for 108 yards. Hall also had a strong showing, with a robust 126 yards from scrimmage on just eighteen touches, including a 3-yard receiving score midway through the fourth period. As for Rodgers, he was obviously rehabbing that Achilles at the time, though he is 3-1 all-time versus the Texans, completing 65.6% of his throws for an average of 281.3 yards on a healthy 8.32 net yards per attempt, with fourteen touchdowns opposed to just a single interception. Furthermore, 12-6 in these Thursday affairs, tossing thirty-five touchdowns in comparison to five picks. On the injury front, Rodgers has been dealing with knee and ankle maladies for weeks now, though he is likely to start tonight, though there are a number of other Jets hanging int he balance; (veteran Linebacker) C.J. Mosley (neck), (veteran Wideout) Allen Lazard (chest), and (Guard) Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), along with (Safeties) Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) haven’t practiced this week, with a slew of others limited at best. Looking ahead, the Jets will travel to the desert to face the Cardinals on November 10th, before returning to the Meadowlands to host the Colts, which will be the final game before enjoying a sorely needed bye week.