8:00 PM EST, FS1 – Spread: Boise State -23.5, Total: 56.5
Conference rivals clash tonight at Albertsons Stadium, as the (No. 15) Boise State Broncos look to strengthen their bid as the best team in the Group of Five as they return home for a second straight Friday night affair, playing host to the San Diego State Aztecs, who are hoping to turn the corner under a new regime. It is a new era at San Diego State (3-4, 2-0 in MWC), who are in the first year of the Sean Lewis era, with the new head coach arriving after taking a year off as Deion Sanders’ offensive coordinator at Colorado last Fall. Of course, Lewis (pictured below) is more fondly known as the architect of Kent State’s Flash Fast offense; the 38-year-old had inherited a program that had suffered five straight losing seasons, turning them around relatively quickly with a 7-6 finish in 2019 punctuated with the school’s first-ever bowl victory, a 51-41 triumph over Utah State, followed by an appearance in the MAC Title Game two years later. However, his appointment spells quite the transition for the Aztecs, who had been a run-dominant team under his predecessor, averaging over 200 passing yards in a season just once in the previous seven years. So, with that in mind, what do we make of SDSU seven games into the campaign? Well, the offense is still very much a work in progress, folks, as Lewis’ troops have produced just 22.3 points per game (105th in FBS) on 340.6 total yards, including 213.6 yards through the air on 7.09 yards per attempt. Tempo and spacing are the keys to his system, though it is evident that the personnel isn’t where it needs to be to reach the standard of his former units. (Freshman Quarterback) Danny O’Neil has started all seven games, completing 62.6% of his throws for 1,240 yards on 7.1 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to two interceptions, though let’s make no mistake that this offense runs on the legs of (Senior Tailback) Marquez Cooper, a transfer from Ball State, who had previously spent the first three years of his collegiate career with Lewis at Kent State. The owner of three straight 1,000-yard seasons in the MAC, where he led the league in carries last Fall (227), Cooper looks well on his way to making it a fourth with 748 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on an MWC-best 169 attempts. He was a sizable factor in his team’s narrow 29-26 loss against Washington State last weekend, in which the Aztecs rushed for 130 yards, their most since the season opener. If competing in close games is a sign of turning the corner, then San Diego State may be close to doing just that, as each of their last four outings have been decided by three points or less. The hosts were started slowly against the Cougars, though managed to rally back from an early 14-6 deficit thanks in large part to the exploits of Cooper, who rushed for a pair of touchdowns during a stretch in which he and his teammates scored twenty unanswered points. However, a 26-14 advantage evidently wasn’t large enough, as Lewis’ defense allowed WSU to march eighty yards downfield in just four plays, shipping a 34-yard touchdown to cut the lead to five points. Then it all fell apart, folks; SDSU drove all the way to the visitor’s 22-yard line, where O’Neil threw a crushing interception, leading directly to Wazzu’s go-ahead touchdown, followed by a successful 2-point conversion to effectively win the game. In the end, the home side outgained their opponent 414-371, but were ultimately felled by their own mistakes, for in addition to that late interception, they were flagged eight times for a loss of seventy-eight yards, while missing an extra point after the first of Cooper’s scores. Speaking of the veteran rusher, he churned out seventy-eight yards on eighteen carries, while O’Neil completed 22-of-34 passes for just 195 yards, while (fellow Freshman) Javance Tuopou’ata-Johnson continued to get some reps with forty-one yards on 4-of-5 attempts.
From a betting perspective, San Diego State may be 3-4 straight-up but they have been marginally better against the spread thus far (4-3), parlaying to small net profit of 0.64 units. After failing to cover their first three outings of the campaign, the Aztecs have become a much more profitable side of late, riding a four-game streak of covers coming into tonight’s trip to Boise. As a head coach, Lewis is 33-29 versus the spread dating back to his time at Kent State, including 12-15 as a road dog and 22-17 against conference opposition. SDSU has covered seven of their last ten games overall going back to last season, including EIGHT of their past ten games away from Snap Dragon Stadium, while covering five consecutive contests against their MWC compatriots. Furthermore, they have also covered NINE straight games as conference dogs of more than six points versus an opponent with at least one loss, which is the case tonight. Oh, and Lewis’s teams are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge, which is appropriate for this matchup. Looking at this particular matchup, the ‘Tecs are 4-5 all-time meeting with the Broncos, with two straight-up victories in the last five encounters. However, they have fared better against the spread, covering three of the last four tilts, including last Fall’s narrow 34-31 loss at home as a 4.5-point dog. This one was level at halftime (17-17), only for the visitors to run off thirteen unanswered points to take a 27-17 advantage into fourth period, where the hosts cut the deficit to three points though ultimately could not stop BSU’s Ashton Jeanty (much more on him in a bit) from breaching the end zone for a second time. When it was all said and done, San Diego State outplayed Boise State in many respects, outgaining them 439-409 in total yardage, but this affair ultimately came down to which team makes the mistakes and if their opponent exploits them or not; the home side lost the takeaway battle 2-0, losing a pair of crucial fumbles. (Sophomore Wideout) Baylin Brooks was the most notable performer from that tilt, erupting for 117 yards and a 34-yard touchdown to open the game as a true freshman. Perhaps the public remembers that matchup, folks, for they clearly feel that the Aztecs are receiving waaaaaaaay too many points from the oddsmakers, with roughly 80% of all wagers placed upon the spread sporting red and black. On the injury front, (Colorado State transfer) Louis Brown was suspended for last weekend’s loss against Washington State for violating team rules and it is uncertain if he will be available to participate tonight. The same can be said for (Senior Tight End) Jude Wolfe, who also missed last week’s action due to an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, SDSU will return home to host New Mexico next weekend, before hitting the road for back-to-back ventures against UNLV and Utah State.
Meanwhile, with each passing week it feels that Boise State (6-1, 3-0 in MWC) is trending towards a place in the expanded Playoff as they knocked off one of their chief rivals in the Mountain West Conference, beating UNLV for the seventh consecutive time in a 29-24 affair. Make no mistake, this one wasn’t easy, folks, as the Broncos trailed for most of the first half before scoring a pair of touchdowns just before intermission; after (Sophomore Quarterback) Maddux Madsen capped an 11-play/80-yard drive with a 7-yard sprint into the end zone to take the lead (13-10), (Junior Linebacker) Andrew Simpson picked off Hajj-Malik Williams just three plays later, setting up another touchdown from Madsen, this time a short toss to (Junior Tight End) Matt Lauter to make it 20-10 at halftime. The second half was more of a grind for both sides with the Rebels eventually retaking the lead late in the third quarter (24-23), but the visitors had this kid named (Junior Tailback) Ashton Jeanty, whom you may have heard of. The nation’s leading rusher carried the attack throughout the second half, folks, churning out forty-six yards against a tough run defense, capped off by a 1-yard touchdown run, his EIGHTEENTH of the season, to take the lead for good. When it was all said and done, (Head Coach) Spencer Danielson’s troops really earned this one, rallying back on multiple occasions despite their biggest weapon being held in check for long stretches of action. BSU totaled 394 yards of offense on twenty-one first downs, though proved victorious in this trip to Sin City in large part to playing cleaner football, forcing the only turnover of the night and benefitting from some timely penalties from the home side, including an unnecessary roughness infraction that jumpstarted their game-winning drive. Madsen was solid if unspectacular in completing 18-of-33 attempts for 209 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for that go-ahead score just before the half, judiciously spreading the football to nine different targets. As for Jeanty (pictured below) it says an awful lot about a guy when a 128-yard performance is considered below the standard. Of course, the junior has been the most prolific rusher in the country for two years now, following up a watershed campaign in which he led the FBS with 1,347 yards and fourteen touchdowns en route to taking home MWC Offensive Player of the Year honors, with a staggering 1,376 through his first seven games this Fall. Averaging 196.8 yards on a robust 8.7 yards per carry, Jeanty is the considered by many to be the frontrunner for the Heisman Memorial Trophy, which if he manages to secure would make him the first running back to do so since Derrick Henry a decade ago. Indeed, the 3.9 yards per carry that he posted last weekend at UNLV was his lowest figure since an 82-yard performance (3.6 y/a) against Memphis on September 30th of 2023. Now in his first full season in charge after shedding the interim label, Danielson has been wise to ride exploits of his superstar rusher, particularly as the offense gets more settled under the stewardship of (Offensive Coordinator) Dirk Koetter, who is back at Boise State for his third tour of duty. The Broncos have averaged a whopping 44.3 points (3rd in FBS) on 504.6 total yards thus far, with the passing game producing 229.7 yards on a healthy 7.65 yards per attempt as opposing defenses continue to load the box in an attempt to slow Jeanty down. Madsen, a third-year sophomore, has done a solid job of making them pay, completing 62.2% of his throws for 1,482 yards, thirteen touchdowns and just two interceptions. Remember, this is a team that went into Autzen Stadium and very nearly upset the number on team in the country, Oregon, earlier this season, suffering a narrow 37-34 defeat back in early September.
From a betting perspective, Boise State may be 6-1 straight-up, but they are 4-2-1 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 1.64 units. After failing to cover two of their first three games of the campaign, they have since gone unbeaten versus the spread, covering three of their last four contests (3-0-1). Under the direction of Danielson, this is a team that is 7-3-1 ATS, including 3-1 as a home favorite and an unblemished 5-0-1 against conference opposition. The Broncos are 6-3-1 ATS over their last ten games overall dating back to last Fall, and 7-3 ATS in their past ten outings at Albertsons Stadium, 7-2-1 within that range when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, they are a commanding 14-1-2 when favored by seventeen or more points over the last eight seasons, which is once again the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, BSU owns a slight edge in the all-time series between these programs, winning each of the last two encounters, though failed to cover the most recent which was that aforementioned 34-31 affair at Snap Dragon Stadium. Ironically, this one was also on a Friday night, which was owned by none other than Jeanty, who trampled the Aztecs to the tune of 205 rushing yards on twenty-three carries, while adding another forty-nine yards on four receptions. The 2023 MWC Offensive Player of the Year was instrumental in his side rallying back from an early deficit, ripping off a 58-yard touchdown run midway through the second quarter, before eventually fending off the hosts late comeback bid with a 6-yard score just outside of the two-minute mark. Jeanty has faced SDSU twice in his career now, amassing 287 yards and three touchdowns on a robust 8.2 yards per carry. His success aside, the public may think that the 23.5 points that he and his teammates are laying are too much, but the money that has been wagered thus far suggest that it may not be enough, with approximately 64% of all green changing hands siding with the horses. On the injury front, (Junior Receiver) Cam Camper, who leads the team in receptions (28), receiving yards (477), and receiving touchdowns (4), is battling an undisclosed malady after taking a hard hit late in last weekend’s win at UNLV, leaving him currently listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s affair. Looking ahead, Boise State will play host to Nevada next weekend, before traveling to San Jose State and Wyoming.