12:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Ohio State -3.5, Total: 47.5
As the calendar transitions to November, the competition in the BIG 10 is heating up with a CRUCIAL showdown on tap this afternoon from Happy Valley, as the (No. 4) Ohio State Buckeyes battle the (No. 3) Penn State Nittany Lions in what could very well be a playoff elimination game for the former and a potential breakthrough for the latter. Make no mistake about it, ladies and gentlemen, the pressure is building in Columbus, where Ohio State (6-1, 3-1 in BIG 10) finds themselves on the precipice of a potential collapse. After failing to win the conference three years in a row (thanks, Michigan), the Buckeyes hit the Transfer Portal HARD, as (Head Coach) Ryan Day acquired the services of a number of the highest-ranked free agents that were available. (Quarterback) Will Howard, (Tailback) Quinshon Judkins, (Center) Seth McLaughlin, and (Safety) Caleb Downs arrived at Ohio Stadium by way of Kansas State, Ole Miss, and Alabama respectively, bolstering an already experienced roster that saw many players opt to return to school for one more crack at the crown. However, after steamrolling through their first five games by an average margin of 38.8 points, Brutus & Co met defeat in an ill-fated venture to Eugene, where (No. 1) Oregon rallied back to beat them in a thrilling 32-31 affair. OSU led through most of the first half, before conceding a long touchdown just before intermission, with their late bid for a potential walk-off field goal blown by some truly poor clock management from Howard (pictured below), who clearly was unaware that his side was out of timeouts. While a narrow defeat at Autzen Stadium is hardly a sin, Ohio State had over a week to let that game marinate, with the intention of taking out their frustrations on Nebraska last weekend. Unfortunately, that would NOT be the case, as the Buckeyes very nearly avoided a calamitous upset, charging back to beat the Huskers in a 21-17 affair. For all intents and purposes, last Saturday’s performance reeked of a team suffering from a hangover two weeks after that trip to the Pacific Northwest, as Day’s troops authored their worst offensive performance of the campaign thus far, totaling a pedestrian 285 total yards on ELEVEN first downs, rushing for a meager sixty-five yards along the way. To put that into perspective, folks, those are all easily season-lows for one of the most prolific attacks in the country, while representing their worst such stat line in a regular season contest in, well, quite some time. Apart from a pair of bombs thrown by Howard to (Sophomore Wideout) Carnell Tate and (Freshman Receiver) Jeremiah Smith, this unit struggled to unlock the visiting defense, though remained in striking distance thanks to the exploits of their own defense, which managed to limit their opponent to three field goals on the afternoon. However, boos started coming down from the faithful at the Horseshoe as Nebraska retook the lead midway through the fourth quarter, setting the stage for a comeback for the home side. Beginning from their own 25-yard line, Day’s charges marched downfield as Howard got things started with a 34-yard strike to Tate, before finding Judkins for a 9-yard score to get back in front. From there, the two teams would trade punts before (Senior Nickle Safety) Jordan Hancock called game by intercepting Dylan Raiola, ending the tilt altogether. When it was all said and done, the Buckeyes were fortunate to get out of this one alive, particularly when you consider how sloppy they were; they were a mere 1-of-10 on third down and were held to 2.1 yards per carry, which was ironically their worst such figure since they last met Penn State, possessing the football for just 24:53 of game time. As a result, Howard was forced to carry the offense, making up for his gaffe at Oregon by completing an efficient 13-of-16 passes for 221 yards on a whopping 13.8 yards per attempt, with those aforementioned three touchdowns deciding the contest. Tate hauled in four receptions for 102 yards, while Smith added seventy yards on three catches, which equates to well over twenty yards per catch for both wideouts. Defensively, Hancock also forced a fumble in addition to that clinching interception. This resilience will be needed in their trip to Happy Valley this afternoon, for suffering another loss, even if it comes at the hand of another top five opponent, could very well spell the end of their bid for a place in the expanded Playoff, which now consists of twelve participants.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may be 6-1 straight-up thus far, but they are only 3-4 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 1.27 units. After a stretch in which they had covered three out of four games, the Buckeyes have failed to do so in each of the last their last two outings, both of which have come favorites, which has also been the case all season. Under the direction of Day, this is a program that is 36-32-3 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2019, including 11-9-3 when favored away from Columbus and 27-18-1 against conference opposition. Furthermore, this is a team that has covered just three of their last ten road games (3-5-2 ATS), though keep an eye on that line, folks, for Brutus & Co are 9-2-1 ATS in their last twelve outings when favored away from the Horseshoe by 0.5-3.0 points. Looking at this particular matchup, OSU is 25-14 SU all-time against Penn State, including 9-1 SU in their last ten encounters, which includes a 7-game win streak in favor of the scarlet & grey. Day has never lost to the Nittany Lions in five meetings, though it should be noted that his side have covered just two of those encounters, including the most recent, a 20-12 defensive slugfest from Columbus last Fall. In a game in which both teams held each other well below 100 rushing yards and were forced to settle for field goals, the difference was that the hosts found the end zone when they needed to, finishing off a pair of drives with a touchdowns courtesy of Miyan Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr, who are both no longer with the school. (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles received a strong showing from his defense, relegating the visitors to 240 total yards, including forty rushing, with four sacks and eight tackles for loss. The public seems to have remembered this one, as approximately 72% of all wagers placed up this afternoon’s spread are lining up on the Buckeyes, while 71% of all the money changing hands thus far is following suit. On the injury front, (Junior Left Tackle) Josh Simmons has been lost for the rest of the campaign due to a torn knee ligament, while (Senior Safety) Lathan Ransom and (Junior Wideout) Reis Stocksdale are both listed as questionable with undisclosed maladies. Looking ahead, Ohio State will return to Columbus to play host to a struggling Purdue side that is currently riding a 6-game losing streak, followed by a trip to Northwestern, who have been decimated by injuries, before clashing with unbeaten (13) Indiana on November 23rd. Of course, we all know what is waiting after that, though we’ll have to wait and see just what shape Day & Co are in come the finale.
Meanwhile, this afternoon presents the opportunity for a breakthrough for Penn State (7-0, 4-0 in BIG 10), who for just the third time during the James Franklin era have started a campaign with seven consecutive victories. The Nittany Lions concluded both of these seasons with an 11-2 record, though in each case narrowly missed out on capturing a conference title and by extension competing in the Playoff. Of course, lying in their path is Ohio State, who have certainly been a thorn in the side of these felines during this period; Franklin’s charges have met defeat at the hands of the Buckeyes NINE times over the past decade, three of which snapping a perfect start. Make no mistake, PSU has been very good under the 52-year-old, who owns a record 95-39 (.709), since arriving in Happy Valley back in 2014, which is the highest win percentage of any head coach during that span not to win a conference championship, though roughly 23% of his losses have come against OSU. Simply put, his inability to get past this particular opponent has so often been the difference between winning 10-11 games and a New Year’s Day bowl and competing for a national championship. So, with all that in mind, is Penn State finally poised to get past their persistent nemesis? Well, as usual, the answer to that question is not without its complications. For all intents and purposes, this is a better team on both sides of the football, particularly on offense now that (Sophomore Quarterback) Drew Allar has a year under his belt. Last season, you could tell that Franklin and former offensive coordinator, Mike Yurcich, were very much coaching around the hyped recruit, operating with proverbial training wheels; despite averaging 36.2 points per game on 399.8 total yards, despite Allar (pictured below) completing 59.9% of his throws for an average of 202.4 yards on 6.8 yards per attempt. Granted, he displayed very good decision-making with twenty-five touchdowns opposed just a pair of interceptions, but he didn’t throw the ball downfield very often, effectively placing a firm ceiling on the offense’s potential. Enter (new OC) Andy Kotelnicki, who was very creative and innovative during his tenure at Kansas (2021-2023). By and large, Allar has taken to the new system, completing a much improved 71.3% for 234.3 yards on a more robust 10.0 yards per attempt, with a dozen touchdowns in comparison to four interceptions. Unfortunately, the overall attack hasn’t been very efficient, with just two more turnovers than takeaways, which is significant when you think about how good Franklin’s charges have been in this regard (+27 over the previous two seasons). With a -2 differential in the last two games, they are a bit fortunate to remain unbeaten, particularly after suffering a near upset at the hands of USC (33-30 in OT) followed by last weekend’s 28-13 win at Wisconsin. Of course, the biggest story coming out of that affair is the health of Allar, who exited the playing field after suffering a knock to his knee that sidelined him throughout the second half. The Nittany Lions were trailing 10-7 at intermission, so there was still everything left to play for, with (Sophomore Quarterback) Beau Pribula coming in to steady the ship, completing 11-of-13 passes for ninety-eight yards and a short touchdown toss to (Junior Tight End) Khalil Dinkins midway through the fourth quarter to extend their lead. Thankfully, the Badgers, who have been mired in their own injury woes at QB, were unable to crack (new Defensive Coordinator) Tom Allen’s unit, as the visitors turned the affair on its head with a 19-yard interception return to the house courtesy of (Senior Safety) Jaylen Reed. The Lions held tough on that side of the football, relegating the hosts to 298 total yards on sixteen first downs, including eighty-one rushing yards, and a pair of stops on fourth down. Pribula also rushed for twenty-eight yards on six carries, while the tandem of (Tailbacks) Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 135 yards on twenty-three attempts, with the latter killing the game off with a 24-yard jaunt to the end zone just outside of the 3-minute mark. With that being said, all eyes in Happy Valley are on the knee of Allar, who has yet to be cleared by the team’s medical staff to compete in the biggest game to come to Beaver Stadium since, well, the last time that they hosted the Buckeyes.
From a betting perspective, Penn State may be unbeaten straight-up, but they too are just 3-4 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 1.27 units. Last weekend’s victory over Wisconsin served as their first cover (-6.5) in over a month, as conference play has seen the offense struggle to hit the high gear that they enjoyed throughout the first four games of the season. Under the leadership of Franklin, this is a program that 73-58-3 versus the spread since his arrived ten years ago, including 4-6 as a home underdog and 47-43-3 against conference opposition. Furthermore, the Nittany Lions have covered just one of their last five games contested at Beaver Stadium, including an 0-4 ATS in their last four outings as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. However, while they haven’t enjoyed much SU success against the Buckeyes of late (seven consecutive losses), they are 5-2 ATS during that stretch, which includes the last time that they played the role of hosts in this series; PSU were 15.5-point underdogs in that one, folks, covering the line by the narrowest of margins (44-31). Of course, last year’s encounter between these schools was much closer than that, as Franklin’s troops met defeat for the first time in 2023, a 20-12 brawl in Columbus. After starting 6-0, Allar & Co came crashing back to Earth, as the then-freshman could complete just 18-of-42 passes for 191 yards and late consolation touchdown with twenty-nine seconds left in the affair. He was sacked four times and pressured plenty more, though did an admirable job taking care of the football against a tough defense in a hostile environment albeit with an overly conservative approach from Franklin and Yurcich. With his status up in the air, the public don’t believe that these cats have matured enough to snap this losing streak, as only 28% of all wagers placed upon this afternoon’s spread have picked the denizens of Happy Valley, with a slighter larger share of the money following suit. On the injury front, we’ve covered Allar’s situation enough as Franklin has declared it too early to tell whether or not he will be good to go today. However, there are a slew of other players listed as questionable to participate in this seismic matchup; (Sophomore Wideout) Kaden Saunders and (Junior Safety) Kevin Winston are the most notable cases due to various ailments. Looking ahead, Penn State will host BIG 10 newcomer, Washington, next weekend before hitting the road for trips to Purdue and Minnesota, followed by their season finale at Beaver Stadium against Maryland, where Franklin was Wide Receivers Coach from 2000 to 2004.