4:25 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Lions -3.5, Total: 48.5
Super Bowl contenders and bitter division rivals renew hostilities this evening at Lambeau Field, as the surging Detroit Lions are gunning for their sixth straight victory and a stranglehold on the NFC North, while the Green Bay Packers are looking to close keep pace as the schedule transitions to November. Though they may not be undefeated, the Lions (6-1, 1st in NFC North) have been arguably the most impressive team in the league thus far, particularly during this recent run in which they have been absolutely annihilating the opposition. Seriously folks, Detroit has battered their opponents by a margin of 19.6 points, including a pair of 38-point victories over the Cowboys (47-9) and most recently the Titans (52-14). Indeed, the brain trust of (Head Coach) Dan Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes have done a tremendous job of rebuilding this downtrodden franchise, winning their first division crown since 1991, which was coincidentally the last time that they advanced to an NFC Title Game, which they also did last season. Credit to those two for managing to retain the services of Offensive and Defensive Coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who were in high demand during the last hiring cycle, with everyone continuing to build upon their success from last year. Offensively, these felines lead the league in points (33.4), while ranking sixth in total yards (406.3), tenth in passing yards (249.6), and sixth in rushing yards (156.7), along with seventh overall in both third down percentage (42.9%) and red zone percentage (65.5%). Now in his fourth year in the Motor City, (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff has emerged as an MVP candidate, completing an NFL-best 74.1% of his passes for 1,695 yards on a career-best 7.55 net yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns opposed to four interceptions. In fact, Goff (pictured below) has been in such a groove during this current stretch that he has thrown a dozen touchdowns in comparison to eighteen interceptions over the last five games. Interestingly, the defense hasn’t lost a step even with the loss of (Pro-Bowl Defensive End) Aidan Hutchinson, who broke his tibia late in that blowout of Dallas, shipping just 21.5 points per game since then. Glenn’s unit has been very opportunistic with fifteen takeaways (2nd Overall), while excelling in a situational sense in yielding a league-low 30.7% success rate on third down and a 47.4% touchdown rate in the red zone (7th Overall). All of these strengths were on display in last weekend’s 52-14 beatdown of the struggling Titans, which believe it or not was actually a competitive affair with the score deadlocked at fourteen points apiece early in the second quarter. However, it was all Lions from that point on, folks, who ran off THIRTY-EIGHT unanswered points, while the defense forced three turnovers and a turnover on downs along the way. When it was all said and done, the hosts may have been outgained 417-225 leading to a time of possession of just 24:23, but that was because they consistently operated with a short field, while hitting a pair of home runs including a 70-yard sprint to the house from (Sophomore Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs and a 90-yard touchdown return by (veteran Receiver) Kalif Raymond on a punt early in the second half. Goff didn’t need to do much, completing 12-of-15 throws for eighty-five yards, but he did toss three scores, while Gibbs totaled 127 rushing yards on just eleven carries, with (fellow Tailback) David Montgomery adding another score of his own to open their ledger in the first period. On the opposite side of the ball, (young Safety) Kerby Joseph had one of two interceptions of Mason Rudolph, while (fellow Defensive Back) Amik Robertson forced a pair of fumbles.
From a betting perspective, the Lions are 6-1 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, making them one of the most profitable teams in the NFL, parlaying to a net profit of 4.45 units. This is a group that is currently on a streak of five consecutive wins and covers, which has been made easy by the fact that they’ve scored 40+ points in three of their past four outings. Under the leadership of Campbell, they are a stellar 43-17-1 versus the spread, including an insane 20-9 away from Ford Field, 24-10 with revenge, 20-9 following a SU win, and 25-11 against his fellow NFC North residents. Furthermore, the big fella has covered SEVEN straight games versus division foes who are above .500, with a 9-1 record of covers following an SU/ATS win by 10+ points. Hell, if that’s not enough to get you on the bandwagon, consider this: Campbell is 26-8-1 ATS against .500 or greater opposition. Looking at this particular matchup, Detroit saw a streak of four wins snapped against Green Bay in a 29-22 loss at home on Thanksgiving Day last Fall, which saw Goff & Co fall behind 20-6 in the first quarter. After scoring a touchdown on the first drive of the afternoon, the hosts kept shooting themselves in the foot, losing three fumbles and turning the ball over downs just as many times. Granted, a late touchdown and 2-point conversion from Goff cut the deficit to seven points, though it was ultimately too late for the Lions, who met little resistance moving the football (464 total yards) though were undone by their lack of execution. Goff completed 29-of-44 passes for 332 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but was responsible for all three lost fumbles, which served as an outlier given his CV versus the Packers; the 3-time Pro-Bowler 5-2 all-time with a completion percentage of 64.8% for 240.3 yards per game on 6.88 net yards per attempt, with twelve touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. The public is all over the Lions in this evening’s encounter, folks, with approximately 70% of all the money wagered thus far wearing that Honolulu Blue. On the injury front, it is common knowledge that the aforementioned Hutchinson will miss the remainder of the season with a broken tibia, though there have hints that he may be good to participate in a potential Super Bowl. However, (fellow Defensive Linemen) Kyle Peko (pectoral) and Marcus Davenport (elbow) are out of action today with various maladies, while (third-year Wideout) Jameson Williams is serving the second of a 2-time game suspension after running afoul of the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy. Furthermore, (veteran Left Tackle) Taylor Decker is questionable with a chest contusion, while (young Linebacker) Malcolm Rodriguez is int he same boat with an ailing ankle. Looking ahead, Detroit will remain on the road for a trip to Houston to battle the Texans next weekend, before returning to the Motor City to host another breed of feline, the Jaguars.
Meanwhile, the Packers (6-2, 2nd in NFC North) were expected to serve as the Lions’ chef competition within the division, and while the NFC North has certainly been the most competitive subgrouping in the league, there is reason to believe that they are the team with the staying power. Why are we so bullish on Green Bay, you ask? Well, after surprising many last season by catching fire down the stretch and getting into the playoffs, where they embarrassed the Cowboys and very nearly upset the 49ers, this is a team that is very much ahead of schedule. This Fall, they have nonetheless overcome the absence of their promising young quarterback, Jordan Love, who suffered a knee injury late in the season opener, causing him to miss two games, which they managed to win all the same. Now, with Love (pictured below) back in action, this is a balanced attack loaded with weapons; (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur has overseen a unit that ranks sixth in points (27.0), fifth in total offense (397.8), eighth in passing yards (240.9), and fifth in rushing yards (156.9). In his second campaign as the starter, Love has proven worth the wait, completing 61.7% of his throws for 1,547 yards on 7.14 net yards per attempt with fifteen touchdowns, which equates to the highest such percentage in the NFL (7.5%). If there is one flaw in his game though, it is his willingness to force the ball downfield, with a league-high nine interceptions despite missing those two games. Decision-making was a criticism when he was coming out of college, and it will be interesting to see if that is something that LaFleur will be able to correct as the season progresses. However, the biggest difference between these Packers and their predecessors has been on the opposite side of the football, where (Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley has done a tremendous job of turning around a talented, yet underachieving group. After spending the last four years as the head coach at Boston College, Hafley opted to leave Chestnut Hill due to the increasing complications with NIL and the Transfer Portal, looking to take his talents to the professional level where he has been an absolute hit for the cheese heads. Green Bay ranked seventeenth in total defense last season (335.1) and twenty-third in takeaways (18), though have already forced NINETEEN turnovers (1st Overall) in nine fewer games, with three of them in five different contests. Seven of those takeaways have come courtesy of (veteran Safety) Xavier McKinney, who arrived via free agency from the Giants, logging an NFL-high SIX interceptions along with seven pass breakups. With that said, they only got two in last weekend’s narrow 30-27 victory over Jacksonville, where they had a difficult time pulling away from the visitors despite leading by ten points early in the fourth quarter. Love had completed 14-of-22 passes for 196 yards and an interception before leaving the gridiron due to a hamstring injury, though his backup, Malik Willis, stepped in to seize the day with fifty-six yards and a touchdown on 4-of-5 passing, along with another twenty-three rushing yards on four carries. Of course, it also helped that (2022 Rushing Champion) Josh Jacobs erupted for 127 yards and two scores on twenty-five carries, his most productive showing since arriving in Lambeau via free agency. In the end, LaFleur’s troops outrushed the Jags 170-91 allowing them to possess the football for a commanding 34:09, though struggled on third down (3-of-11). Thankfully, the visiting side were worse off in that regard (1-of-9), as Hafley’s defense got after Trevor Lawrence with two turnovers of the QB; McKinney picked him off early in the second quarter, while (Rookie Linebacker) Edgerrin Cooper stripped him of the football late in the third stanza, with (third-year Defensive Lineman) Devonte Wyatt recovering the football leading to a short touchdown toss from Willis to (Sophomore Tight End) Tucker Kraft two plays later.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be 6-2 straight-up, but they haven’t quite been as rewarding against the spread (4-4), parlaying to a net loss of 0.36 units. Despite winning each of their last four games, they haven’t covered the past two outings, with a cumulative margin of victory of just five points. Under the direction of LaFleur, this is a team that has also been a profitable one with a 57-41 record versus the spread, including 30-18 at Lambeau Field, 24-11 as an underdog, 36-27 when coming off a win, and 19-12 against their division foes. Furthermore, Green Bay has covered eleven of thirteen division affairs against an opponent coming off back-to-back SU victories, though are just 1-4 ATS in their last five contests versus an opponent with a winning record. Looking at this particular matchup, the Packers lead the all-time series 106-76-7, though have won just one of the last five encounters with the Lions, dropping each of the last two at Lambeau Field. Interestingly, the road team has won and covered each of the last three meetings, including that aforementioned Thanksgiving bonanza from last Fall. Green Bay stormed into Ford Field and stunned the hosts early, taking an early 20-6 lead thanks to back-to-back touchdown passes courtesy of Love, while (veteran Defensive Back) Jonathan Owens returned a fumble twenty-seven yards to the house. As we covered earlier, Detroit would claw their way back into the tilt, though the story of the afternoon was the visiting defense, who turned away the cats on four of their five attempts on fourth down, while getting after the aforementioned Goff with thirteen pressures, nine hits, and three sacks of the quarterback, leading to those three fumbles that we referenced before. In four all-time meetings, Love is 2-2 against the Lions (1-1 as the starter), completing 64.7% of his throws for an average of 162.0 yards on 7.02 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to four interceptions. Speaking of the quarterback, he has been cleared to play today after leaving last weekend’s win over the Jaguars with a tender groin, though there are some other Packers who are at risk of participating in this seismic division battle; (veteran Cornerback) Jaire Alexander (knee), (veteran Tackle) Andre Dillard (shoulder), (Left Guard) Elgton Jenkins (glute), (Center) Josh Myers (wrist), (Defensive Tackle) Kenny Clark (toe), and the aforementioned Jacobs (ankle) are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Packers will enjoy their bye week after this showdown with the Lions, though will continue the division opposition with a trip to Soldier Field to battle their hated rivals, the Bears, on November 17th.