8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Chiefs -9.0, Total: 46.0
Week Nine comes to a conclusion with a Super Bowl rematch from four years ago, as the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Kansas City Chiefs look to remain undefeated as they play host to the injury-ravaged Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have slumped back to .500 after suffering back-to-back losses. Indeed, an awful lot has changed since these franchises crossed paths in Super Bowl LV, which ended in a 31-9 triumph for the Buccaneers (4-4, 2nd in NFC South), who claimed their second-ever Lombardi Trophy on their home field at Raymond James Stadium. In the years that have past, Tampa has turned over both the roster and the coaching staff, though nonetheless managed to secure their third consecutive division crown last season, thanks in large part to a big play passing attack, spearheaded by the arrival of (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield, who is enjoying a career renaissance in South Florida. Mayfield (pictured below) posted career-highs in completion percentage (64.3%), passing yards (4,044), and touchdowns (28), developing excellent chemistry with (veteran Receivers) Mike Evans and Chris Godwin along the way. However, the attack was still woefully unbalanced, ranking dead-last in both rushing yards (88.8) and yards per carry (3.4), prompting (Head Coach) Todd Bowles to search for answers in the playcalling department, hiring Liam Cohen to be his new Offensive Coordinator. Through the first six weeks, he got just what he asked for, as the offense averaged a robust 30.8 points on 366.8 total yards, including a vastly-improved 136.8 yards via the run. When you can pick up 5.3 yards per carry, it opens up the playbook for any playcaller, particularly when you have weapons on the perimeter like they have. Well, it is a good thing that they have developed such a ground game, because the Bucs were dealt two major blows in a span of a few hours as they lost not only Evans, but Godwin to injury, with the latter done for the rest of the campaign (more on them in a bit). Needless to say, that’s a lot of firepower to be without, folks; Evans and Godwin combined for 238 receptions, 3,190 yards, and twenty-six touchdowns since Baker came to town, including ELEVEN this Fall alone, playing a major role in their quarterback’s NFL-best twenty-one passing scores. It’s no coincidence that they lost last weekend’s 31-26 affair with the Falcons, their first without those aforementioned pass-catchers as Mayfield was intercepted twice, both on deep throws downfield that you would have to imagine being earmarked for Evans. However, the offense still managed to produce 432 total yards on twenty-four first downs and convert 9-of-14 third downs, though their execution left a lot to be desired: Bowles’ troops lost a fumble on their opening possession after just two plays, while turning the ball over on downs at their own 38-yard line between those two interceptions of Mayfield. They did rush for 102 yards but only attempted twenty-two carries, as Baker threw FIFTY passes on the afternoon in an effort to keep pace with Atlanta’s threatening offense. This, of course, brings us to perhaps the more pressing issue: the defense. Renowned across the league as one of the best defensive strategists, Bowles’ charges have really struggled on this side of the football, shipping 26.6 points per game (28th Overall) on 387.0 total yards (30th Overall), including 438.8 yards over the last four weeks. The Secondary has dealt with injuries throughout the campaign, shipping fifteen touchdowns in comparison to snagging five interceptions, while the run defense, which used to be such a luxury, has allowed a very generous 5.2 yards per carry, the third-worst figure in the league. Until they can get healthier in this regard, it appears that the Bucs must resort to outscoring the opposition, though without the likes of Evans and Godwin, they’ll have to keep it on the ground, which is admittedly something new to them.
From a betting perspective, the Buccaneers are 4-4 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 0.36 units. After getting off to a promising start with three SU/ATS wins through their first four contests, they have since struggled mightily with just one such victory in their past four outings. Under the leadership of Bowles, this is a team that is 20-24-1 versus the spread since his promotion back in 2022, including 12-9 away from Raymond James Stadium, 11-11 as an underdog, and 7-12 when coming off a SU loss. With that being said, Tampa Bay has covered SEVEN of their last eight road games against teams above .500. As a franchise, they are 2-3 ATS as a road dog on Monday Night Football dating back to 1990, with their previous appearance on that stage from two weeks ago, a 41-31 loss to the Ravens, coming as a home dog of 4.5 points. The Bucs have struggled on Mondays in general of late, with just one cover in their last seven showings on MNF. As for Mayfield, the veteran gunslinger is 27-23 ATS on the road, though 29-24 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 5-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back defeats. However, it should be noted that his most profitable role is as a road dog, with a 21-15 ledger versus the spread, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, Tampa has taken six of the last eight meetings with Kansas City dating back to 1999, including the most significant, which was that aforementioned triumph in Super Bowl LV from four years ago. Interestingly, the dog has covered six of the last eight clashes between these teams, including each of the last four. Getting back to Mayfield, he is 0-3 in his career against the Chiefs, though he has been lively with 274.0 yards per game on 7.24 net yards net yards per attempt and 68.2% passing but has tossed as many interceptions as touchdowns (3) in those games. He has also struggled on Monday nights, winning just two of his eight apps, completing just 49.7% of his throws for an average of 239.6 yards on 6.41 net yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns in comparison to ten interceptions. On the injury front, we’ve covered the situation at receiver, with Godwin done for the season, while Evans should return to action following the bye in three weeks’ time due to that ailing hamstring. However, there are other players to monitor for this primetime affair, including (Rookie Tailback) Bucky Irving, who has been nursing a tender toe, (veteran Safety) Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot), and (veteran Defensive End) William Gholston (knee), along with (Wideouts) Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Jalen McMillan (hamstring), all of which are listed as questionable. Looking ahead, it doesn’t get any easier for the Buccaneers next week as they play host to the 49ers, who are coming off a bye week, before enjoying a week off of their own.
Meanwhile, the more things change, the more they seem to stay the same for the Chiefs (7-0, 1st in AFC West), who are in pursuit of their third consecutive Lombardi Trophy, which would be the first time in the Super Bowl era that a franchise managed such a feat. However, if you’re expecting Kansas City to be lighting up scoreboards and moving the football up and down the field like they were driving a race car, then prepare to be disappointed, folks, for this is now very much a defensive team. Wait a minute, how can a team coached by Andy Reid and led by Patrick Mahomes be anything other than an offensive juggernaut, you ask? Well, there is a strong argument to be made that the reason that KC has managed to claim three Super Bowl titles in the last five years is their defense, which has evolved into an elite unit under the direction of (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo, a man who has coordinated defenses for FOUR Lombardi winners over the course of his career. When Reid needed to fix this unit back in 2019, he called the guy who worked under him for eight years back in Philadelphia, with the results speaking for themselves; after finishing twenty-seventh in points allowed in 2017 and 2018, KC has finished seventh, tenth, eighth, sixteenth, second, and fifth in that particular category, including second in total defense last season and fifth thus far in 2024. The 64-year-old is deft at disguising coverages his ever-creative blitz packages, which have confounded some of the best play callers that the league has ever seen; they rank third in blitz percentage (35.0%) and pressure percentage (29.3%), while sitting atop the NFL in QB Knockdown percentage (15.7%). Needless to say, Spagnuolo (pictured below) knows how to make things very uncomfortable for the quarterback. Case in point, two weeks ago the Chiefs bested the 49ers in a Super Bowl rematch from last February, relegating their threatening attack to eighteen points, 310 yards, and three turnovers. Though his group only sacked Brock Purdy once, on eight blitzes they pressured him six times (16.2%), hit him on five occasions, forcing eight bad throws along the way (25.8%). It was more of the same in last weekend’s 27-20 victory over (bitter division rival) Las Vegas, whom they held to 228 total yards on fifteen first downs, including a paltry THIRTY-THREE rushing yards, and a takeaway courtesy of (veteran Linebacker) Drue Tranquill’s recovered fumble. Granted, the Raiders don’t have much to offer offensively these days, as they got after Gardner Minshew throughout the affair with five sacks and nine pressures, which equates to 25.0% of his drop-backs. This continued dominance has afforded Reid and Mahomes the luxury of figuring out the attack, which has seen a revolving door of players at the skill positions, with the likes of (young Tailback) Isiah Pacheco and (Receivers) Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown suffer significant injuries. The Chiefs executed a huge trade last week with the acquisition of (3-time All-Pro) DeAndre Hopkins in a deal with the Titans, bringing the 32-year-old to a contender for the first time in his stellar career. With seven 1,000-yard campaigns under his belt, Hopkins is as reliable as they come, with the potential for a late career renaissance possible after a two seasons marred by injury and suspension. Reid has stated thar they will continue to add more to his plate as the season progresses, as they look to build upon his two receptions for twenty-nine yards in his debut.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may be undefeated at 7-0, but it has been a different story against the spread where they are 4-2-1, parlaying to a net profit of 1.64 units thus far. Last weekend’s victory over the Raiders saw them narrowly miss out on covering the spread, which was 8.5 points, snapping a streak of four games without a spread loss (3-0-1). Under the direction of Reid, this is a team that is 114-91-4 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2013, including 52-53 at Arrowhead Stadium, 84-77-1 when favored by the oddsmakers, and 77-65-1 when coming off a win. On Monday nights, they are 8-7 as a home favorite dating back to 1990 but have covered just one of their last five appearances on this stage. As for Mahomes, he is 33-29 ATS at home, 53-49-1 ATS as a favorite, and a commanding 40-24-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back victories. In three career meetings with the Buccaneers, he 2-1, completing 62.7% of his throws for 327.0 yards on 6.76 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and three interceptions. Of course, arguably the biggest disappointment of his professional career came when these sides crossed paths back in Super Bowl LV, when he was picked off twice and sacked thrice in a 31-9 loss. He has however, been stellar on Monday nights, posting an 8-3 record with a completion percentage of 65.9% for 283.6 yards on 6.85 net yards per attempt, with TWENTY-FOUR touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions. Looking deeper into this particular matchup, the Chiefs trail the all-time series 7-8, though did get a measure of revenge when they last crossed paths two years ago, besting Tampa Bay in a 41-31 affair on the Gulf Coast. The visitors led by as many as twenty-one points in this one, folks, racking up 417 total yards, including 189 of the rushing variety, converting 12-of-17 third downs and possessing the rock for 38:38. Mahomes went 23-of-37 for 249 yards with three touchdowns and a pick, while (veteran Tight End) Travis Kelce hauled in nine of ten targets for ninety-two yards and a score. The public appears to be torn on where to turn on tonight’s matchup, with roughly 49% of all wagers placed upon the spread riding with the hosts, though the money is telling a different story altogether with a smaller share (40%) following suit. On the injury front, Kansas City is largely healthy with only (veteran Defensive Lineman) Mike Danna (pectoral) and (veteran Wideout) JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) out of action due to respective maladies. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will remain at Arrowhead for their annual visit from the Broncos next weekend, before hitting the road for a renewal of acquaintances with the Bills, whom they eliminated from the playoffs last January for the third time in four years.