8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Ravens -6.0, Total: 53.0
Week Ten kicks off with a key division battle between bitter rivals, as the Cincinnati Bengals, desperate to get back to .500, make their annual pilgrimage to M&T Bank Stadium where the high-powered Baltimore Ravens look to sweep the season series for a second straight year. With nine games in the books, it is officially getting late rather early for the Bengals (4-5, 3rd in AFC North), who find themselves still trending below water level as the competition within the AFC drifts further from their reach. For a team that harbored legitimate Super Bowl aspirations coming into this campaign, Cincinnati has been nothing short of disappointing thus far, with their traditional slow start prolonged by a defense that has been ravaged by injuries in the trenches. Since 2020, these felines have lost at least three of their first five games on four occasions, including a miserable 1-4 start this Fall, though instead of finding their rhythm come October, they have entered November with a losing record for the first time in four seasons. So, what in the name of Boomer Esiason is going on in Southern Ohio, you ask? Well, as we touched upon in the opening, the defense has been a major issue in Cincy thus far, shipping 25.2 points (25th Overall) on 342.8 total yards (19th Overall), including 212.4 yards against the pass (17th Overall) on 6.0 net yards per attempt (13th Overall), along with another 130.4 yards versus the run (18th Overall). Those figures don’t tell the whole story, folks, for this is a unit that has benefitted from facing a triumvirate of poor attacks (New England, Cleveland, New York), while getting gashed by the rest of the opposition that they’ve faced; against the Patriots, Browns, and Giants, who rank thirtieth, twenty-ninth, and twentieth respectively in total offense, these cats have allowed 12.3 points on 311.6 total yards, only to relinquish 31.6 points on 358.5 total yards against the other teams that they have faced. Situational defense has been a problem too, as they rank twenty-sixth in third down percentage (44.5%) and twenty-seventh in red zone percentage (67.9%). All this has done is place even more pressure upon the shoulders of (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Joe Burrow, who has been carrying the team more so than ever. If not for the team’s overall performance, Burrow (pictured below) would be considered an MVP candidate, completing 70.2% of his throws for 2,244 yards on 6.61 net yards per attempt, twenty touchdowns in comparison to just four interceptions, parlaying to the highest QBR of his career (76.3). Apart from a late pick-six, the 27-year-old torched the Raiders in last weekend’s 41-24 victory, completing 27-of-39 passes for 251 yards and FIVE touchdowns, marking the second time this Fall that he tossed that many scores. Cincinnati dominated this affair, outgaining Las Vegas 373-217 in total yardage, 26-16 in first downs, 130-60 in rushing yards, and time of possession (35:14). (Sophomore Tailback) Chase Brown rushed for a career-high 120 yards on twenty-seven carries, while adding another thirty-seven on five receptions and a touchdown late in the first quarter. (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Ja’Marr Chase was targeted often (11 times) and ended up with a modest forty-three yards on seven catches, though the same could not be said for (veteran Tight End) Mike Gesicki, who erupted for 100 yards and a pair of scores on five receptions. As maligned as the defense has been, they continued their trend of smothering poor offenses, with (3-time Pro-Bowler) Trey Hendrickson putting on a show with FOUR sacks, nine pressures, seven QB hits, and a forced fumble.
From a betting perspective, the Bengals may be 4-5 straight-up thus far, but they have been slightly more rewarding against the spread (5-4), parlaying to a net profit of 0.55 units. After their traditional slow start saw them secure just two covers through their first five outings, these felines have built some momentum for themselves, beating the spread three times in the past four weeks, which have coincidentally all come as favorite. Under the leadership of (Head Coach) Zac Taylor, this is a team that is 53-40-5 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2019, including a stellar 32-16 away from Southern Ohio, 28-20 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 24-16 following a SU victory. However, when it comes to Cincinnati, they have been a far more profitable side when they are NOT pitted against the rest of their brethren within the AFC North; these cats are 26-10 SU and 27-8-2 ATS in their last thirty-six games against non-division opponents, though are merely 6-10 in both categories against the North during that stretch, with only two covers in their last eleven such contests. Dating back to 1990, the Bengals are also 2-3 ATS as a road dog on Thursday nights, though are a commanding 6-1 ATS in these midweek affairs when pitted against an opponent fresh off a SU/ATS win, which is the case tonight. As for Burrow, he is 25-11 ATS on the road and 17-9 ATS as an underdog, with by far and away his most rewarding role being a combination of the two (13-7 ATS as road dog). Looking at this particular matchup, the Bengals trail the all-time series 27-31 SU, though have dropped three consecutive meetings both SU and ATS, including their most recent encounter, a thrilling 41-38 contest from Paycor Stadium five weeks ago that needed overtime to crown a victor. In a back-and-forth tilt that saw the hosts lead by as many as ten points thrice in the second half, Taylor’s troops were ultimately done in by their own mistakes; Burrow was intercepted deep into enemy territory with an opportunity to kill the game off late in the fourth period, while the typically-reliable kicker, Evan McPherson, missed 53-yard potential game-winner in overtime. The two sides combined for 962 total yards, fifty-three first downs, and 740 passing yards. The biggest takeaways were polar opposites, as Burrow turned in an excellent performance with 392 yards and FIVE touchdowns (and that pick) on 30-of-39 passing, with Chase (193 yards on ten catches) and Higgins (83 yards on nine receptions) each hauling in a pair of scores. Unfortunately, the defense was shredded for a season-worst 520 yards, including 175 on the ground, along with thirty first downs. Over the course of his career, Burrow is 2-2 on Thursday nights, while posting a 4-5 mark versus Baltimore, completing 68.0% of his throws for an average of 275.6 yards on 7.19 net yards per attempt, with twenty total touchdowns in comparison to seven turnovers. On the injury front, Cincinnati has had quite a few players spending time in the trainer’s office, as (veteran Tackle) Trent Brown (knee), (veteran Guard) Jaxson Kirkland (biceps), (young Tight End) Erick All (knee), (young Cornerback) Dax Hill (leg) are all out for the season with various maladies. Furthermore, (former Ravens) Geno Stone (shin) and Orlando Brown (knee), along with (veteran Defensive End) Sam Hubbard (hamstring) and the aforementioned Brown (ribs) and Higgins (quadriceps) are all listed as questionable. Of the group, Higgins is probably the most at risk after missing the last two games. Looking ahead, the Bengals will remain on the road for a trip westward to battle the Chargers before enjoying what should be a well-deserved bye week.
Meanwhile, for the first time in the relatively short history of their franchise, the Ravens (6-3, 2nd in AFC North) are without a doubt an offensive team. Seriously, folks, Baltimore has been nothing short of explosive on this side of the football, ranking second in points scored (31.4), first in total yards (456.3), third in passing (264.4), first in net yards per attempt (8.50), first in rushing (191.9), first in yards per carry (5.9), fifth on third down (45.7%), and first in the red zone (74.4%). So, what in the name of Art Modell has gotten into these birds, you ask? Well, the second year within the system of (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken has seen a major leap from last year’s considerable improvement, with (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson looking even better than he did last season. Jackson (pictured below) averaged career-highs in completion percentage (67.2%) and yards per attempt (8.0) en route to throwing for 229.9 yards, twenty-four touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2023, though has blown many of those figures out of the water thus far, completing 68.2% of his throws for 264.3 yards per game on an NFL-best 9.3 yards per attempt and 8.53 net yards per pass, with TWENTY touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions. Oh, and he is still a supreme threat when running the ball, racking up 505 yards and two more scores on a healthy 6.0 yards per carry. Who would have thought that pairing the most prolific rushing quarterback in NFL history with (two-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry would prove to be such a hit? Even at the age of thirty and having led the league in carries in four of the last five seasons, Henry (pictured below alongside Jackson) has plenty left in the proverbial tank, leading all players in carries (168), rushing yards (1,052), and touchdowns (11) through nine games. Hell, if he plays in all seventeen contests, he is on course to shatter his previous best for touchdowns, which was seventeen back in 2020. These two pillars of the attack were dominant in last weekend’s 41-10 thrashing of the Broncos, who own the sixth-best defense in the league. The Ravens looked like they would be heading into halftime with a modest 17-10 advantage, though Jackson hit (Sophomore Wideout) Zay Flowers for a 53-yard touchdown just before intermission to take a commanding 24-10 lead. From there, it was all Baltimore, as the hosts ran off seventeen unanswered points in the second half, outgaining Denver 176-108 along the way. When it was all said and done, (Head Coach) John Harbaugh’s troops racked up 396 total yards on twenty-five first downs, only facing eight third downs, which should give you an idea as to how freely they moved the football. Jackson accounted for 280 passing yards and three touchdowns on a surgical 16-of-19 attempts, while Henry compiled 133 yards from scrimmage and a pair of rushing scores on twenty-four touches. Flowers reeled in five of six targets for 127 yards and two touchdowns of his own, with (4-time) Pro-Bowl Fullback) Patrick Ricard even getting into the action with a receiving score of his own. Even the maligned pass defense performed well in this affair, as (Defensive Coordinator) Zach Orr’s unit picked off (Rookie Quarterback) Bo Nix once, sacked him four times, and pressured him on 17.1% of his throws.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens may be 6-3 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (5-3-1), parlaying to a net profit of 1.55 units. After failing to win or cover their first two games of the season, they have beaten the spread in all but two of their ensuing seven contests (5-1-1 ATS), including last weekend’s romp over the Broncos in which they were sizeable favorites (-9). Under the direction of Harbaugh, this is a franchise that is 151-129-13 versus the spread, including 66-69-1 at M&T Bank Stadium, 93-90-1 when favored by the oddsmakers, 9-9 after scoring 35+ points, and 15-5 when over .500 and coming off a home game, pitted against a division opponent. Unfortunately, there are a number of trends working against Baltimore tonight. First, they have covered just one of their last six outings at home against sub-.500 opponents. Second, these birds are 1-10 ATS in their past eleven division matchups as a home favorite versus an adversary coming off a SU/ATS win. Third, they are 2-11 ATS when favored by four or more points following a double-digit ATS victory. Lastly, Jackson & Co are 1-7 when coming off a double-digit non-division victory and facing a team fresh off a win by 10+ points. Dating back to 1990, the Ravens have covered six of their last eight midweek clashes as a home favorite, though again, it should be noted that they have covered just one of their last five Thursday affairs after a double-digit SU victory. Baltimore has won three consecutive contests in this rivalry, though have covered each of the last five meetings. When they last crossed paths back in that aforementioned 41-38 affair from early October, Jackson & Co rallied back again and again, eventually forcing overtime following (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Marlon Humphrey’s interception of Burrow at the visitor’s 28-yard line. From there, Jackson drove them down to Cincy’s 38-yard yard line, where (longtime Kicker) Justin Tucker drilled a 56-yard field goal. After winning the ensuing coin toss, the visiting side dodged a major bullet after Jackson lost a fumble on an aborted snap in enemy territory, though as we covered early, the Bengals gave it right back with a missed 53-yard field goal. One play later, Henry ripped off his longest run of the afternoon, a 51-yarder, setting up Tucker’s redemption, a successful 24-yard game-winner. The public remembers this one, folks, as roughly 55% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are siding with the blackbirds, while a slight smaller share of the money changing hands (52%) has followed suit. On the injury front, (young Tight End) Isaiah Likely () and (Defensive End) Brent Urban () are both listed out of action for this midweek tilt, while (Backup Cornerback) Jalyn Armour-Davis is doubtful due to an ailing knee that limited him throughout the short week of practice. Looking ahead, the Ravens will make their annual pilgrimage to Western Pennsylvania to battle the division-leading Steelers, followed by a reunion between the Harbaugh brothers in a trip to Los Angeles to battle the Chargers.