9:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Iowa -6.5, Total: 44.5
God bless conference realignment as newfound BIG 10 neighbors renew acquaintances after nearly four decades, with the suddenly prolific Iowa Hawkeyes making the long trek westward to the City of Angels where the rebuilding UCLA Bruins hope to have turned it around in search of their first 3-game win streak since the beginning of the previous campaign. My, oh my, what has gotten into Iowa (6-3, 4-2 in BIG 10)? After a two-year malaise of offensive purgatory in which they have averaged fewer than 18.0 points per game, these Hawkeyes have found a way to flip the switch with a robust 30.8 points thus far, which checks in at forty-fifth in the FBS. Hell, these birds have cracked the 30-point threshold six times in nine games, including 40+ points on four occasions, three of which coming in the past four weeks. To put that into perspective, this is a school that had previously scored forty or more points on just four occasions in FORTY-NINE games from 2020 to 2023! So, what in the name of Chuck Log has gotten into Iowa, you ask? Well, (longtime Head Coach) Kirk Ferentz knew changes needed to be made on this side of the football, so he hired Tim Lester as his new offensive coordinator following a 6-year tenure at Western Michigan, who possessed a largely prolific attack with their former quarterback at the helm. With ten returning starters on offense, this unit is one of the most experienced in the country, which has helped Lester impart his ideals and tactics; through nine games, the Hawkeyes have amassed 356.1 total yards per game, including 422 in last weekend’s 42-10 thrashing of Wisconsin. The hosts rushed a season-high 329 yards against the Badgers, led by the BIG 10’s leading rusher, (Junior Tailback) Kaleb Johnson, with 135 yards and three touchdowns on twenty-four carries. It was his seventh 100-yard performance of the Fall, including fourth against conference competition. However, this is a team that has been running all over their opponents this season, churning out a healthy 222.3 yards on 5.8 yards per carry. The difference, at least in these last few weeks, has been at QB where (Northwestern transfer) Brendan Sullivan has taken over for a concussed Cade McNamara. Indeed, the faithful at Kinnick Stadium had been clamoring for a change for a while now, with Ferentz acquiescing two weeks ago. After McNamara threw a pick-6 early against Northwestern, Sullivan (pictured below) came in and led the home side to THIRTY-SEVEN unanswered points against his former school, rushing for forty yards and a touchdown along the way in the 40-14 triumph. A week later with McNamara in concussion protocol, the junior did more of the same, with fifty-eight rushing yards and another rushing score. Granted, he hasn’t done a whole lot with his arm, completing 16-of-24 attempts for 173 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks, though his impact on the offense has been undeniable as the birds outgained the Wildcats and Badgers 777-424, including 531-167 on the ground. The key is that with Sullivan being such a rushing threat, they haven’t been turning the ball over, which is ideal when you consider how good their own defense has been good at getting their hands of the football. (Longtime Defensive Coordinator) Phil Parker continues to be one of the very best in the business, with his troops flipping that rare negative turnover margin from last year (-7), logging seventeen takeaways thus far, leading to a much healthier differential (+10). Seniors, Jay Higgins and Jemari Harris have posted three interceptions apiece, with the former also recovering a fumble while the latter returned one of those picks for a touchdown. Iowa is +6 in takeaways over the last four weeks and 6-0 when they win that particular battle.
From a betting perspective, Iowa may be 6-3 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been quite as solid against the spread (5-4), parlaying to a net profit of just 0.55 units. After covering three of their first seven games, they have now done so in back-to-back weeks for the first time since October of 2023. Under the leadership of Ferentz, this is a program that is 174-140-7 versus the spread since he arrived back in 1999, including 32-23-1 when favored away from Kinnick Stadium, and 97-88 when coming off a victory. Furthermore, the Hawkeyes are 5-5 ATS in their last ten ventures away from Iowa City, while covering four of their last five when laying points to the opposition. Looking at this particular matchup, Iowa trails the all-time series with UCLA 2-7, but they haven’t met since 1986 and haven’t beaten them since 1981. With that being said, as a longtime resident of the BIG 10, they have participated in the Rose Bowl six times in school history, winning two of those ventures to Pasadena, with their most recent appearance at that venue coming in 2016, a 45-16 loss to Stanford. Coincidentally, that was also the last trip to the golden state for Ferentz & Co. Despite traveling 3,600 miles westward, the public remains bullish on these birds, with a commanding 94% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread flying with the Hawkeyes. On the injury front, the aforementioned McNamara is still dealing with the effects of a concussion, but given how well the offense has played in recent weeks under Sullivan, we have a hard time believing Ferentz will be quick to switch back to the Michigan transfer. (Sophomore Cornerback) John Nestor, (Junior Tight End) Addison Ostrenga, (Junior Guard) Beau Stephens, and (Freshman Receiver) Reece Vander Zee are listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, Iowa will enjoy their second and final bye week of the regular season before making another long trip (1,800 miles) to College Park to face Maryland, followed by the regular season against Nebraska at Kinnick.
Meanwhile, it’s the beginning of a new era for UCLA (3-5, 2-4 in BIG 10), who are not only charting a new course for themselves in a new conference for the first time 1968 but are doing so with a brand-new regime in charge in Pasadena. Of course, the program was thrown for a real curve ball last February when (former Head Coach) Chip Kelly stepped down in favor of becoming the offensive coordinator at Ohio State, leaving many to wonder what direction the Bruins would be headed in. Needless to say, the timing of it all wasn’t great as his departure came late in the coaching cycle, with many vacancies around the country having been filled, while the school’s spring practice was just a few weeks away. Making matters worse was the fact that this was a program trending upward under Kelly, who after a rough start had guided the bears to three consecutive 8-win campaigns, which hadn’t happened since 1988. So, with few legitimate options to turn to, (Athletic Director) Martin Jarmond opted to elevate (Running Backs Coach) Deshaun Foster to head coach, with the former tailback becoming UCLA’s first skipper without head coaching experience since 2003 when they hired Karl Dorral. With quite a task in front of him, the 44-year-old made some inspired hires to his coaching staff, most notably that of (Offensive Coordinator) Eric Bieniemy, who had served as the Kansas City Chiefs’ OC from 2018 to 2022. However, as many had predicted, the Bruins struggled mightily through the early stages of the campaign, losing five consecutive games after winning their opener over Hawai’i (16-13). The offense had been the major issue during that stretch, failing to crack twenty points through six games, operating with a negative turnover margin of -7 to boot. Thankfully, it appears that they’ve finally turned the proverbial corner, as Foster’s (pictured below) troops have strung back-to-back victories, on the road no less, thanks in large part to a revived attack. In wins over Rutgers (35-32) and most recently Nebraska (27-20), the ground game has started to find its legs, averaging 117.0 yards on 30.5 carries, which is notable because these bears hadn’t attempted 30+ rushes in any of the previous six contests. Hell, their 139 yards in last weekend’s trip to Lincoln was the first time all year that they rushed for over 100 yards, which has opened up the playbook for Bieniemy to the benefit of (Senior Quarterback) Ethan Garbers. The veteran has completed an efficient 77.8% of his throws during this run, for 301.0 yards on a robust 9.5 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and zero interceptions, while even rushing for another 104 yards and a score 6.9 yards per carry. Garbers was stellar against the Huskers, steering the visitors to a 27-7 lead thanks to a pair of passing touchdowns and a 38-yard interception return courtesy of (Senior Linebacker) Kain Medrano. The hosts would strike back with fourteen unanswered points to cut the deficit to seven but picked off Heinrich Haarberg at the Bruins 34-yard line, effectively ending the threat of a comeback. Winning breeds confidence, folks, and after gutting out two tough conference wins on the road, this team should be riding him as they return to the Rose Bowl as they look to take another step towards bowl eligibility.
From a betting perspective, UCLA may be 3-5 straight-up thus far, but they have been more rewarding against the spread (5-3), parlaying to a net profit of 1.55 units. After failing to cover their first two games of the season, they have since covered five of their last six contests, all of which have been as an underdog, though it should be noted that they have gone from receiving 20+ points from oddsmakers in three consecutive outings to much smaller dogs of 7.5 or less points in each passing week. The fact that they are starting to win games outright as an underdog is a good sign for Foster, who is 1-2 versus the spread as a dog at the Rose Bowl and 4-1 ATS against his newfound conference residents. In fact, the Bruins are on a 9-2 run of covers against BIG 10 opposition, folks. With that being said, they are just 1-6 ATS following a SU victory, including 2-5 AS in their last seven games following a SU win as a dog. Looking at this particular matchup, we touched upon how these programs haven’t crossed paths in thirty-eight years, with UCLA owning a 7-2 edge, including an unbeaten 6-0 ledger in all encounters contested in the state of California. However, the public isn’t paying any of that much mind, folks, as only 6% of wagers that have been placed upon the spread thus far have favored these bears. On the injury front, there are plenty of players listed as questionable to participate in this primetime affair from Pasadena, including (Wideouts) Rico Flores, Braden Pegan, and Carter Shaw, along with (Junior Defensive Tackle) Keanu Williams due to various unspecified maladies. Williams has been sidelined since late September, while Flores has been shelved for the past five weeks after the Notre Dame transfer hauled in twelve catches for 187 yards and a score through the first four games. Looking ahead, UCLA will travel to Seattle for a battle with Washington, followed by their annual rivalry with the USC, before ending the regular season at home against Fresno State.