3:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Georgia -2.5, Total: 54.5
With the release of the first CFP rankings of the season, the race to secure a spot in the playoff is heating up, particularly in the SEC where the (No. 2) Georgia Bulldogs currently have the inside track of punching their ticket, as they look to win their sixth consecutive game in Oxford, where the (No. 16) Ole Miss Rebels are looking to spring a trap. Calling the Southeast Conference home has never been more difficult, folks, particularly after the league expanded in the offseason with the additions of perennial powerhouses, Texas and Oklahoma, giving them a staggering SEVEN schools that have won a national championship in the last quarter century. Hell, four have won multiple nattys during that period of dominance, with the most recent being Georgia (7-1, 5-1 in SEC), who was the last team standing in both 2021 and 2022. However, this current incarnation of the Bulldogs hasn’t been quite as formidable as the more immediate predecessors, especially on the offensive side of the football where they have evolved into more of a passing team. When you think of the ‘Dawgs, you think of a rugged ground game and a threatening defense, but as we’ve seen in football, personnel oftentimes dictate the approach that coaches take, which has been the case for (Head Coach) Kirby Smart this Fall. With injuries in the Backfield (more on that in a bit), the attack has been far more reliant on the passing game than at any point during Smart’s near-decade in Athens. Seriously, folks, through eight games, this is a unit that has thrown for 299.0 yards in comparison to rushing for 132.3 yards, with that latter figure representing their lowest such mark since 2006, which was ten years before Smart returned to his alma mater. Of course, when you have a talent such as (Junior Quarterback) Carson Beck, it would be foolish not to unleash him, right? Well, in the words of Lee Corso, “not so fast my friends!” It appears that Georgia was far better off with their highly-rated passer playing more complementary football than what they have been doing of late, with the numbers telling the whole story. A year ago, (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Bobo struck the proper balance with Beck (pictured below), who led the SEC in completions (302), attempts (417), and passing yards (3,941) despite the run game still churning out 191.2 yards per game on 35.8 attempts en route to scoring an average of 40.1 points. This year, rushing attempts (29.5) and yards are both down and unsurprisingly, so are the points (33.1), with Beck attempting roughly seven more passes per contest, parlaying to a less efficient percentage (65.5%) and seventeen touchdown tosses opposed to an SEC-high ELEVEN interceptions. Keep in mind that he only threw six picks in fourteen games last year, with multiple interceptions thrown in four of his last five outings, including last weekend’s annual trip to Jacksonville, a 34-20 win over Florida. Beck was picked off on back-to-back possessions early in the first half, with his third coming his first throw following intermission. Thankfully, he and his teammates managed to overcome those self-inflicted wounds to rally back from a 13-6 deficit, scoring twenty-eight of the game’s last thirty-five points. The Dawgs’ defense stepped up and effectively turned the Gators over three times in the second half, while Beck bounced back with a pair of touchdown passes, the first being a 22-yard strike to (Junior Tailback) Cash Jones and the second being a 10-yarder to (Senior Wideout) Dominic Lovett. In the end, Smart’s troops made this one a lot harder than it had to be, though nonetheless outgained their bitter rivals 455-228 in total yards, doubled them up in first downs (26-13), and pounded the rock just enough (33 carries, 146 yards) to keep the opposing defense honest. Beck completed just 25-of-40 passes, but made them count with 309 yards and those two scores, though his three picks matched a career-high already logged twice this season. Nine different players caught a pass, though (Junior Tailback) Trevor Etienne wasn’t one of them, with all thirty-one of his yards coming on the ground. It was an emotional day for the Florida transfer, who faced his former teammates for the first time, carrying the ball on just seven occasions.
From a betting perspective, Georgia may be 7-1 straight-up thus far, but they have been far less rewarding against the spread (2-7), parlaying to a net loss of 4.18 units. As if often the case with such a powerhouse, they have consistently been the subject of large spreads, with only three of their games featuring a line below fourteen points, which is coincidentally the only scenario that they have covered. However, it should be noted that they narrowly missed last weekend’s spread against Florida (-14.5) by a half-point. Under the direction of Smart, this is a program that is 62-56-1 versus the spread, including 20-13 when favored away from Athens, 43-36 against their fellow SEC brethren, and 47-42 when coming off a win. Despite failing to cover their six consecutive contests as a favorite, the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five outings as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0 points, which is the case tonight. Granted, they were in this precise situation back in September when they traveled to Tuscaloosa, laying two points to Alabama, only to suffer their first and only defeat of the campaign (41-34). Looking at this particular matchup, the Dawgs hold a commanding 33-13-1 lead in the all-time series between these schools, including five consecutive victories in Oxford, though they were torched in a 45-14 loss when they last traveled to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium back in 2016, which was Smart’s first year on the job. With that being said, last Fall’s 52-17 affair at Sanford Stadium featured a very different outcome; the hosts ran off THIRTY-ONE unanswered points between the second and fourth quarters, hanging 611 total yards of offense on the Rebels, including a whopping 300 rushing yards, both which were season-highs at the time. Though many of their playmakers from that day, including Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers are plying their trade in the NFL these days, Beck completed 18-of-25 passes for 306 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while Lovett hauled in four receptions for seventy-seven yards. The public seems to remember that encounter, while feeling that the spread is about as manageable as it gets for Georgia, with approximately 82% of all wagers placed upon today’s spread siding with the visitors. On the injury front, the Backfield has been banged up in recent weeks with as many as FOUR different tailbacks listed as questionable to participate, including the aforementioned Etienne (ribs), Branson Robinson, Roderick Robinson II, and Chauncey Bowers. Furthermore, (Sophomore Wideout) Anthony Evans is nursing a tender hamstring, while (Senior Receiver) Colbie Young is serving a suspension handed down from Smart, having missed the last three games. (Senior Linebacker) Smael Mondon is also dealing with nagging foot malady, while (Sophomore Guard) Tate Ratledge has been hindered by an ailing ankle. Looking ahead, this gauntlet that the Bulldogs have been facing will come to an end next weekend as the welcome (No. 7) Tennessee to Athens, which coincidentally wraps up their hellish SEC schedule.
Meanwhile, it would have been easy for Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2 in SEC) to get lost within the conference shuffle, but credit to (Head Coach) Lane Kiffin, his staff, and players for remaining competitive even as the bar has been raised. Of course, this is a program that is coming off their first 11-win campaign in school history, as Kiffin (pictured below) has the Rebels aiming higher than they ever have before. After splitting his first ten games during the COVID-shortened season of 2020, the 49-year-old has since amassed a 36-12 record (.750) in Oxford, including an appearance in the 2021 Sugar Bowl followed by a 38-25 triumph over Penn State in last Winter’s Peach Bowl. Furthermore, they reached as high as fifth in the AP Polls earlier this Fall, which was their best since the ill-fated Hugh Freeze era peaked back in 2015. Few coaches have been adept at manipulating the Transfer Portal has Kiffin, who has earned the moniker Portal King by the media, importing TWENTY-FOUR players from other programs in 2024 alone, equating to the top recruiting class in that regard. More than ever before, college football is an annual arms race, with Vaught-Hemingway Stadium becoming an un unlikely destination for wantaway talent. As a result, Ole Miss is a more balanced team than they were last year, thanks in large part to a defense that ascended to one of the nation’s elite units. A year ago, the Rebels were shipping 22.5 points on 382.2 total yards, getting by mostly on their knack for takeaways (18, +11), only to relegate their opponents to a scant 13.2 points per game (6th in FBS) on 316.3 total yards, with fifteen takeaways through nine games (+7). THIRTEEN of their top sixteen tacklers have transferred to Oxford within the last three seasons, including seven arriving this Spring; chief among them has been (Defensive Linemen) Walter Nolan and Princely Umanmielen from Texas &M and Florida respectively, who have combined for 13.5 sacks, 17.5 tackles for loss, a pair of fumble recoveries, and even a touchdown. With that kind of defense on their hands, Mississippi can realistically compete with anyone in the conference and outside of it, particularly when you take into account that they’re still a tough matchup on the offensive side of the football too; despite a growing number of injuries at the skill positions (which we’ll get into shortly), the attack has produced a robust 42.1 points (4th in FBS) on 555.4 total yards, which believe it or not is nearly 100 yards better than last year’s unit, equating to a healthy 7.7 yards per play. (USC transfer) Jaxson Dart has been the most prolific quarterback in the SEC by a wide margin, leading the conference in completion percentage (71.7%), passing yards (3,210), yards per attempt (11.6), yards per completion (16.2), and passer rating (192.4). Six different pass-catchers have logged over 200 receiving yards thus far, while five more have rushed for 100+ yards, including Dart. It was this group that earned the school its first victory in Fayetteville since 2018, a 63-31 thumping of (bitter rival) Arkansas, which saw the visitors rack up a whopping 694 yards of total offense, their most against any FBS opponent this season. Dart completed 25-of-31 throws for 515 yards and SIX touchdowns, averaging a ridiculous 16.6 yards per attempt, while also serving as their leading rusher with forty-seven yards on ten carries. (Senior Wideout) Jordan Watkins, a former transfer from Louisville, erupted for 254 yards and FIVE scores on eight receptions, parlaying to an insane 31.5 yards per catch, while (Sophomore Receiver) Cayden Lee added five balls of his own for 127 yards. The defense may have relinquished a season-high in points and yards, though most of them came in garbage time, with the pass-rush teeing off with eight sacks and countless pressures, along with a pair of fumble recoveries.
From a betting perspective, Ole Miss is 7-2 straight-up thus far, though have been nearly as rewarding against the spread (6-3), parlaying to a net profit of 2.45 units. After winning and covering their first four outings, all as heavy favorites, with ease, it hasn’t been easy sledding for the Rebels, who are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five contests. Under the leadership of Kiffin, this is a program that is 31-25-2 versus the spread since he arrived in Oxford back in 2020, including 4-2 when receiving points at Vaught-Hemingway, 16-20-2 against SEC opposition, and 19-16 when coming off a victory. Furthermore, Mississippi is 12-3-1 ATS over their last sixteen games after shipping 450 or more total yards, while also covering four of their last five tilts as a home underdog, with both scenarios being the case this afternoon. However, it should be noted that Kiffin is 4-7 ATS in his last eleven games following a double-digit ATS win. Lastly, this is a program that has lost ELEVEN straight games against top five opponents, covering four of them along the way. Looking at this particular matchup, we covered how much difficulty the Rebs have had with the Bulldogs over the years (1-11 SU/4-8 ATS), which was clearly evident in that aforementioned blowout in Athens last Fall. Believe it or not, that affair was actually a competitive one early one, with the two sides deadlocked at 14-14 early in the second quarter. Unfortunately, the visitors fell victim to a deluge of yards and points as they were utterly throttled by Georgia’s vaunted ground game. Kiffin’s charges managed to rush for 173 yards themselves, but Dart couldn’t pierce the opposing defense, completing just ten of his seventeen passes on the day for 112 yards and an interception. In his first season as the defensive coordinator, Pete Golding’s side served up a season-high fifty-two points and 300 rushing yards, which was seventy-seven more yards than the next closest performance. On the injury front, Ole Miss has more than their fair share of questionable populating the trainer’s room, including (Tailbacks) Rashad Amos (undisclosed), Logan Diggs (knee), and Matt Jones (undisclosed), which is significant given the status of (leading rusher) Henry Parrish Jr, who left last weekend’s romp over Arkansas with a leg malady. The Miami transfer has rushed for 678 yards and ten touchdowns thus far, racking up a healthy 5.2 yards per carry along the way. (Senior Wideout) Tre Harris, who leads the SEC in catches (59) and receiving yards (987) is also questionable after missing last Saturday’s affair with an undisclosed ailment, potentially robbing Kiffin of two of his biggest weapons. Looking ahead, the Rebels will enjoy their second and final bye week of the campaign, before venturing to the Swamp for a battle against Florida, followed by their annual rivalry with Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.