1:00 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Commanders -2.5, Total: 44.5
Two of the NFL’s biggest surprises thus far cross paths in a showdown in Landover, as the new-look Pittsburgh Steelers look to kick off a particularly hellish stretch with a fourth consecutive victory, while the impressive Washington Commanders have designs on doing the same. Despite getting off to a surprising 4-2 start, there remained a sense that the Steelers (6-2, 1st in AFC North) lacked the requisite staying power to contender with the elite teams in the AFC. Hell, (longtime Head Coach) Mike Tomlin thought so too, which is why he opted to make a risky decision and bench (young Quarterback) Justin Fields in favor of instating (veteran QB) Russell Wilson in an attempt to jumpstart the attack. It is no secret that Pittsburgh has struggled mightily to replace over the past few seasons, with Fields failing to win over the coaching staff despite the team’s strong start. The franchise acquired both he and Wilson (pictured below) in the offseason with the intention of letting them compete for the starting job during training camp, only for the latter to suffer a lingering calf injury pushing a sled, giving the job to former by default. However, as the 35-year grew healthier with each passing week, the idea of making a change did so as well, as Tomlin made the switch prior to a primetime showdown with the Jets. Thankfully for the Steelers, Wilson rose to the occasion and looked more like the 9-time Pro-Bowler he was with the Seahawks rather than the declining talent we saw in Denver. In back-to-back victories over both New York teams, the offense has been far more balanced with doses of explosive plays in the passing game, averaging 31.5 points on a robust 417.5 total yards, including 259.5 yards through the air on a healthy 8.4 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. For those wondering, that is nearly a 100-yard improvement in passing yards and a whopping 2.7-yard improvement in net yards per throw, which has opened the playbook up for (Offensive Coordinator) Arthur Smith, while breathing new life into underutilized weapons such as (young Wideout) George Pickens, who has posted 185 yards and his first touchdown of the season on nine catches, parlaying to a staggering 20.5 yards per reception. With a more threatening and consistent passing attack, opposing teams have to approach Pittsburgh is a completely different manner, which is something that the Giants found out firsthand in a 26-18 affair from two weeks ago. Don’t be fooled by the score, folks, Tomlin’s troops move the ball up and down the field against Big Blue, racking up a season-best 426 total yards, including 167 yards on the ground and another 259 on the arm of Wilson. If not for having to settle for FIVE field goals courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Chris Boswell, thanks in large part to a pair of touchdowns overturned due to questionable penalties, the final score would have looked a lot more lopsided than it was, which could be a sign that Wilson, who completed 20-of-28 throws for 278 yards and a score is still getting acclimated to his teammates. (Veteran Tailback) Najee Harris steamrolled his way to 114 yards on nineteen carries, while eight different players caught a pass. It also helped that the defense continued to make timely plays when they needed to, as (perennial Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) T.J. Watt came up with a clutch strip-sack of Daniel Jones as New York threatened to draw level in the red zone with just over three minutes left to play. (Rookie Cornerback) Beanie Bishop, who logged a pair of interceptions in the previous week against the Jets, got his third on the next possession, picking Jones off in Pittsburgh territory to end the game altogether. How good are the Steelers feeling about themselves, you ask? Good enough to become major buyer at the Trade Deadline, where they acquired the services of (veteran Receiver) Mike Williams and (veteran Edge-Rusher) Preston Smith from the Jets and Packers respectively. Williams, fell down the pecking order in New York after their own moves on the market, while Smith had posted 2.5 sacks, for QB hits, and nineteen tackles for Green Bay before playing a season-low twenty-one snaps in last weekend’s visit from Detroit. With 68.5 sacks over the course of his career, he should fit nicely into Tomlin’s rotation, while Williams is a capable deep threat who has averaged 15.5 yards per catch over his own career, despite being relegated to three games last year due to injury.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Steelers, who are 6-2 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 3.45 units, making them one of the most rewarding teams in the NFL. Interestingly, one of the components of their success in this regard is the fact that most of their games have featured a manageable spread within 3.5 points of either end of the spectrum, facing a line of four or greater on just two occasions, both of which victories. Under the leadership of Tomlin, this is a franchise that is a 153-137-11 versus the spread since his arrived back in 2007, including 73-70 away from Western Pennsylvania, 12-12 with rest, and a commanding 57-34 when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is 30-12 ATS versus opponent under his watch when coming off back-to-back SU victories, having already done so once this Fall with a 20-10 victory over the Chargers, though it should be noted that they have been much better in this role when facing a division foe (12-2 ATS), which is not the case this afternoon. They have, however, covered four consecutive contests when enjoying any form of rest over the last four years, while covering NINE of their last ten outings as road underdogs of less than seven points following a SU win before taking on an above-.500 opponent. Looking deeper into this particular matchup between storied franchises, the Steelers trail the all-time series 33-43-3, with a 6-game winning streak snapped in their most recent encounter, a 23-17 affair back in 2020. There’s not a lot of relevant information to take away from this one, as both rosters have undergone fairly significant changes over the past four years; the aforementioned Watt logged a sack and a fumble to go along with five pressures and six tackles. As for Wilson, he is 3-3 over the course of his career against Washington, completing 61.0% of his passes for an average of 226.8 yards on 6.77 net yards per attempt, with twelve total touchdowns in comparison to committing five turnovers. He should relish the opportunity to return to FedEx Field, as it was the sight of his first postseason triumph, a 24-24 affair against the then-Redskins. On the injury front, Pittsburgh has been banged up in the trenches with six linemen from either side of the football collecting dust on Injured Reserve, while (Outside Linebacker) Nick Herbig (hamstring) was limited throughout the week of practice, with (veteran Safety) Terrell Edmunds held out of action due to illness. On the bright side, both Williams and Smith are healthy and should be ready to perform after arriving via trade earlier in the week. Looking ahead, the gauntlet continues for the Steelers, who return home to host the prolific Ravens in what is the first of two seismic division showdowns, followed a two-game road trip in Ohio against the Browns and Bengals, before taking on Cleveland once more.
Meanwhile, their opponent has been a great story indeed, but it can certainly be argued that the biggest surprise in the NFL this season has been the Commanders (7-2, 1st in NFC East), who are off to their best start since 19991, which was coincidentally the last time that he hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. By all accounts, this is a franchise starting over, what with a new owner, a new general manager, a new head coach and staff, and most notably a new quarterback. Well, after taking over midway through the previous campaign, (Principal Owner) Josh Harris has proceeded to hit home run after home run, with Washington two wins away from clinching their first winning record in a decade. Harris’ first major hire was that of (General Manager) Adam Peters, who arrived from San Francisco, followed by (Head Coach) Dan Quinn, which is looking more and more like a coupe for management. Quinn spent the previous three years coordinating the defense of (bitter rivals) Dallas, annually ranking among the league’s best units. Of course, you need players too, and when you draft second overall in a class littered with franchise caliber passers, they found themselves a promising one, selecting (Heisman winner) Jayden Daniels second overall. Coupled with the playcalling skills of (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury, this has been a wonderful marriage for all involved, as Daniels (pictured below) has emerged as the clear frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors; the 24-year-old has completed an efficient 71.5% of his throws for an average of 216.1 yards per game on a healthy 7.57 net yards per attempt, with nine touchdowns in comparison to just a pair of interceptions, while making good use of his legs with another 51.0 yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry and four more scores. As a result, the attack ranks third overall in both points scored (29.2) and total yards (402.6), including eleventh in passing yards (238.7) and third in rushing offense (163.9), while converting 45.9% of their third downs (5th Overall). If there is one criticism of this group, it is that they have left a lot to be desired in the red zone, where they have scored touchdowns on just 51.2% of their opportunities (26th Overall), but that hasn’t necessarily prevented from finding the end zone. When we last saw them, the Commanders swept the season series against the Giants, earning a 27-22 victory in the Meadowlands. This one was a fairly close affair despite the visitors never trailing, as Washington held a narrow advantage in total yards (358-326), though were outgained on the ground (149-164) and possessed the football for 28:00. As is so often the case, the difference proved to be turnovers, with the hosts losing a key fumble on their second possession that directly led to their opponent’s first touchdown of the game, a dart into the back of the end zone from Daniels to (veteran Wideout) Terry McLaurin. Granted, Big Blue did manage to find their rhythm in the second half, but it was a case of too little too late, as Quinn’s outfit answered every time. In the end, Daniels, who appeared to still be nursing tender ribs suffered two weeks ago, completed 15-of-22 passes for 209 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while rushing for another thirty-five yards on eight carries. His second score went to McLaurin as well, this one traveling eighteen yards to take a commanding 21-7 lead just before halftime. (Veteran Tailback) Austin Ekeler, amassed eighty-three yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown on fourteen touches. (Veteran Edge-Rusher) Dante Fowler, who is working together with Quinn on their third different team, led the charge defensively with a pair of sacks of Daniel Jones, one of which saw him strip the ball free. Despite their strong start to the season, Quinn and Peters were also busy at the Trade Deadline, acquiring the services of (veteran Cornerback) Marshon Lattimore in a deal with the Saints. The 4-time Pro-Bowler has lost nineteen games to injury over the past three years, but remains one of the league’s tougher man-to-man corners, with the expectation that he will help bolster a Secondary that despite yielding the fifth-fewest passing yards (183.9), has been prone to giving up the deep ball at 6.2 net yards per attempt allowed (20th Overall).
From a betting perspective, the Commanders may be 7-2 straight-up but they have actually been slightly more rewarding against the spread thus far (7-1-1), parlaying to a net profit of 5.36 units, the most of any team in the league. They certainly benefitted from being underdogs in four of their first six games, though it should be noted that they have since adapted to the role of favorites, covering all five of their contests in which they’ve been laying points. Over the course of his coaching career, Quinn has covered just one of his last nine outings as favorites following a SU division victory, while owning a 5-10 mark versus the spread when favored over a non-division opponent, though to their credit, his charges have won three out of three such tilts this season. It should also be noted that Washington has covered just two of their last nine game immediately after facing the Giants, though they have already covered in such a scenario earlier this year when they upset the Bengals outright as 7-point underdogs on Monday Night Football. Looking into this particular matchup, the Commanders own a sizeable 43-33-3 advantage over the Steelers all-time, though as we touched upon earlier, they haven’t met since 2020 when they snapped a 6-game losing streak that dated back to 1997. Again, this is a VERY different team in comparison to the one that left Pitsburgh with a 23-17 victory, though there are some leftovers from that affair; a young McLaurin, in his second year with the franchise, hauled in two receptions on six targets for fourteen yards, while (veteran Defensive Lineman) Jonathan Allen had two pressures, a hurry, and a knockdown of Roethlisberger. Of course, Allen is languishing on Injured Reserve due to a torn pectoral muscle that has ended his campaign. Thankfully, the rest of the injury report is fairly light, as (Defensive Lineman) Dorance Armstrong (shoulder), (Center) Tyler Biadasz (thumb), and (Tailback) Brian Robinson (hamstring) continue to be limited throughout the week of practice due to various maladies, while the fans in Washington will have to wait a week to unveil the aforementioned Lattimore, who is still nursing a tender hamstring. Also, (veteran Kicker) Austin Seibert, who stabilized the kicking game earlier in the season, was held out of practice with a sore hip. Looking ahead, the Commanders will cross paths with bitter division rivals in the upcoming weeks, taking on the Eagles in Philadelphia on Thursday night, before hosting the injury-ravaged Cowboys a week later.