8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Rams -2.5, Total: 49.0
Week Ten comes to a close in the City of Angels, as a pair of high-powered attacks looking to get back into the playoff conversation cross paths, with the struggling Miami Dolphins facing the surging Los Angeles Rams from SoFi Stadium. By all accounts, this is NOT where the Dolphins (2-6, 4th in AFC East) thought that they would be midway through the campaign, languishing at the bottom of the division due in large part to the absence of (veteran Quarterback) Tua Tagovailoa. While there are varying opinions of Tagovailoa (pictured below) as far as being a franchise passer, there is absolutely no denying his importance to this particular offense, which was rudderless without him despite their wealth of weapons at the skill positions. Indeed, last year saw Miami lead the NFL in total yards (412.2) and passing yards (276.4), while placing second in points scored (29.2), thanks largely to the lefty, who led all QBs with 4,624 yards through the air. Within (Head Coach) Mike McDaniel’s system, the 26-year-old operates much like a point guard, distributing the football to his plethora of weapons, who count themselves as some of the fastest players in the sport. However, we saw just how ineffective this machine was without their trigger man, as Tagovailoa was lost for four games after suffering a concussion in a 31-10 loss to the Bills back on September 12th. Between weeks three and seven, the Fins could muster just 10.0 points per game on 274.5 total yards, including a mere 136.5 via the pass on 4.4 net yards per attempt with the likes of Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, and Tim Boyle combining for only a single touchdown in place of the Hawaiian native. While they have yet to win either of the two games since he returned, the offense has sprung back to life; the Dolphins have scored twenty-seven in each contest, averaging a much-improved 375.0 total yards, including 225.5 through the air on 6.6 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. This was the case in last weekend’s narrow 30-27 defeat at Buffalo, a competitive affair that featured four lead changes and three ties. After the hosts struck first with a field goal, the visiting side scored the next ten points, as Tagovailoa hit (Sophomore Tailback) De’Von Achane for a 14-yard screen pass for a score late in the second quarter, eventually taking a 10-6 lead into halftime. The Bills would pull ahead in the third period, only for Achane to breach the end zone once more to draw level in the final stanza. From there, the two sides would trade touchdowns, leaving Buffalo with the football with just over ninety seconds left in regulation. Back-to-back penalties would hand their rivals a lifeline on third-and-long in their own territory, leading to a pair of completions courtesy of Josh Allen, teeing up Tyler Bass for the game-winner from sixty-one yards out, which drilled through the uprights, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, Miami posted over 370 yards for the second consecutive week, amassing twenty-six first downs, and converting half of their eight third down attempts, which should give you an idea as to how they moved the football. Tagovailoa completed an efficient 25-of-28 throws for 231 yards and two touchdowns, suffering just one sack and three pressures. It was evident that the gameplan was for him to get rid of the ball as soon as possible, with many of those throws being of the short variety to Achane, who caught all eight of his targets for fifty-eight yards and that score, along with another sixty-three rushing yards on a dozen carries. (Reigning Receiving Champion) Tyreek Hill caught four of five passes for eighty yards, while (fellow Wideout) Jaylen Waddle hauled in the tying touchdown in the fourth quarter. It will be interesting to see if McDaniel continues to play it safe with his quarterback moving forward or if he doesn’t begin opening up the playbook as they get further removed from said concussion.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Dolphins, who are 2-6 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 4.18 units, making them one of the least-rewarding teams in the NFL. They covered just one of their first seven games, despite none featuring a spread over 4.5 points, though it should be noted that they did beat the line as 6-point underdogs in last weekend’s trip to Orchard Park. Under the direction of McDaniel, this is a team that is a middling 21-22-1 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2022, including 10-11 away from South Beach, 7-10 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 3-8 versus an opponent fresh off of back-to-back victories. Furthermore, Miami has failed to cover five straight games as a dog of 0.5-3.0 points, while riding a 4-game losing streak ATS as a road dog between that same margin. It should also be noted that this franchise has really struggled on Monday Night Football; dating back to 1990, the Fins are 2-12 ATS as a road dog in these showcase affairs, while covering just one of their last nine games as a dog of nine points or less on MNF. As for Tagovailoa, he is 11-12 ATS away from Hard Rock Stadium, 12-10 ATS as an underdog, and 2-5 ATS when coming off of consecutive defeats. Looking at this particular matchup, the Dolphins have dominated the all-time series with the Rams, winning twelve out of fourteen meetings, including five straight victories dating back to 2004. With that being said, their last encounter was four years ago, a 28-17 tilt that saw Miami win despite posting just 145 total yards of offense and eight first downs. Of course, when you force FOUR turnovers, you are bound to enjoy excellent field position, which was the case as the hosts logged a pair of interceptions and fumble recoveries apiece. Scoring off of them plays an even greater role in the disparity, as the returned a fumble seventy-eight yards to the house, followed by an 88-yard punt return for a score less than three minutes later. Tua, who is one of the few remaining Fins left from that contest, completed 12-of-22 passes for ninety-three yards and a touchdown, though did lose a fumble. On the injury front, (young Cornerback) Kader Kohou (neck), (Defensive End) Zach Sieler (eye), and (Safety) Jevon Holland (hand) are all out of action for tonight’s trip to Los Angeles, while (Cornerback) Storm Duck (ankle) and (Fullback) Alec Ingold (calf) are listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, if the Dolphins manage to steal this one, then you would have to like their chances of turning things around as they return to South Beach for a pair of winnable games against the Raiders and Patriots in successive weeks, which could potentially lift them to a game under .500 before their Thanksgiving primetime affair at Lambeau Field against the Packers.
Meanwhile, the Rams (4-4, 2nd in NFC West) were one of the feel-good stories of the NFL last season, returning to the playoffs after their Lombardi defense crumbled into dust due to a rash of injuries to key personnel. By and large, a return to health was a major key to their rebound, but the emergence of several young talents played an even greater role in their success, prompting many to point to an upward trajectory this Fall. Unfortunately, the injury bug returned to the City of Angels, as Los Angeles was hit HARD in this regard, particularly on the offensive side of the football, where as many as four starting offensive linemen were relegated to Injured Reserve. However, it didn’t stop there, folks, as the receiving corps lost its two most prominent weapons early on, with (Sophomore Wideout) Puka Nacua suffering a knee injury in Training Camp and reaggravating it in the season opener, while (veteran Receiver) Cooper Kupp was laid out for the bulk of five games with a high ankle sprain. As a result, (Head Coach) Sean McVay’s troops got off to an ugly 1-4 start, leaving many to wonder if they would be major sellers at the Trade Deadline. Fortunately for everyone involved, Nacua and Kupp both returned to action with these Rams THRIVING. Winners of three in a row, this is a team that has suddenly found their footing within a very winnable NFC West, averaging 25.3 points on 337.0 total yards, including 240.3 yards through the air on a robust 7.1 net yards per attempt with six touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. Nacua and Kupp combined for 157 yards and a touchdown on twelve catches in their return, a 30-20 victory Vikings, before the latter (pictured below) repeatedly gashed the Seahawks for 104 yards on eleven receptions in last weekend’s 26-20 overtime thriller in the Pacific Northwest. Looking at the box score, the fact that McVay & Co managed to win this one was rather remarkable; the visitors were outgained 424-366 in total yards, rushed for a meager sixty-eight yards despite playing nearly a whole extra quarter of football, and converted just 3-of-13 third downs, which has been an ongoing issue for them throughout the campaign. What this one came down to, folks, was turnovers and penalties. In a game in which the two sides accounted for a cumulative twenty penalties for 178 yards, the hosts drew the ire of the referees more often, receiving TWELVE flags for a loss of ninety-five yards. If that wasn’t enough, they were turned over three times, all of which were interceptions of Geno Smith. (Defensive Coordinator) Chris Shula’s unit were excellent, sacking Smith seven times and pressuring him on eleven occasions, equating to applying heat on a whopping 25.6% of his drop-backs. (Rookie Safety) Kamren Kinchens put together a star-making performance with two interceptions, including a ridiculous 103-yard return to the house to take the lead early in the fourth quarter. The birds would draw level to send the affair to overtime, but Los Angeles would once again come up huge defensively, stopping the Seahawks on fourth-and-short on the 16-yard line. It was shocking to see Seattle eschew the opportunity to kick a chip-shot field goal to take the lead, gifting Los Angeles an opportunity that would not waste, driving eighty-three yards downfield in just four plays, culminating in a walk-off touchdown toss from (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford to (veteran Wideout) Demarcus Robinson. Stafford fought throughout the afternoon, completing 25-of-44 throws for 298 yards, two touchdowns and a pick, while (third-year Tailback) Kyren Williams amassed ninety-five yards from scrimmage on twenty-three touches. Robinson caught both of Stafford’s touchdowns, along with six of nine targets for ninety-four yards, stepping up in Nacua’s absence following an early ejection. After refraining from selling at the deadline and with the offensive line slowly returning to health (more on that in a bit), this offense is getting closer to full strength for the first time all season, which should provide them with fuel to make a proper push for the playoffs.
From a betting perspective, the Rams may be 4-4 straight-up, but they have been slightly less-rewarding against the spread (3-5) thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 2.27 units. After covering just one of their first six games, they have strung together back-to-back covers for the first time this season, first as a 2.5-point home underdog against the Vikings and then as a 2-point road favorite at the Seahawks. Coincidentally, the line is once again sitting at 2.5 points for tonight’s crucial swing game versus Miami. Under the leadership of McVay, this is a team that is 68-61-5 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2017, including 33-36 at home, 47-45 when favored by the oddsmakers, and 38-42 when coming off a SU win. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered SEVEN consecutive contests immediately after battling Seattle, along with seven of their last eight at SoFi Stadium versus sub-.500 opposition. However, they have failed to cover four games in a row overall against such opponents, while sporting a rather poor ledger against AFC East residents (1-6 ATS). As for their history on Monday Night Football, they are 7-6 as home favorites in these showcase games dating back to 1990, though have covered just one of their last six home games on Monday nights following back-to-back SU wins. As for Stafford, the 36-year-old is 50-63 ATS at home, 48-59 ATS as a favorite, and 17-31 ATS after consecutive wins. He has never lost to the Dolphins in two career meetings, both which came from his tenure with the Lions, completing 69.3% of his throws for an average of 248.5 yards on 7.58 net yards per attempt, four touchdowns and one interception. Looking at this particular contest, we covered how much the Rams have struggled in the all-time series, though it should be noted that this current team is a very different one from the one that last crossed paths with Miami back in 2020, with only the aforementioned Kupp, (veteran Tight End) Tyler Higbee, and (veteran Cornerback) Darious Williams still sporting the horns on their helmets. The public has been fairly torn on this one, folks, with roughly 56% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the hosts, while a slightly larger percentage of all money wagered (57%) has followed suit. On the injury front, (Starting O-Linemen) Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson both practiced in full this week after spending the last seven weeks on IR, which will be a welcome return for an offense that has struggled to run the football with much consistency. However, (veteran Tackle) Rob Havenstein (ankle) will need another week before he’s back, while (veteran Guard) Kevin Dotson (ankle) is listed as questionable with a nagging ankle of his own. Looking ahead, if the Rams can get above .500 for the first time this season with a win tonight, they’ll have an opportunity to build upon that momentum with a trip to Foxborough to face the Patriots next weekend, before returning to SoFi to play host to the Eagles.