8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Eagles -3.5, Total: 48.5
Week Eleven kicks off with a renewal of acquaintances between bitter division rivals, as the upstart Washington Commanders look to bounce back after suffering only the third defeat of their campaign in this trip to the City of Brotherly Love, where the surging Philadelphia Eagles await. There have been many feel-good stories across the NFL this season, though arguably the best has been the resurrection of the Commanders (7-3, 2nd in NFC East), who are off to their best start since 1991, which was coincidentally the last time that the franchise hoisted a Lombardi Trophy. Needless to say, it has been something of a wasteland since enjoying their third such crowning achievement, as Washington has totaled just seven winning campaigns and subsequent trips to the playoffs, where they have lost seven of ten postseason affairs. Making matters worse is the fact that they have seen the other three teams within their division each go on to win at least one Super Bowl, combining for SIX altogether. With that being said, it is a brand-new era in Landover, where one of the league’s storied franchises received a total makeover. That’s right, folks, a new ownership group, a new general manager, a new head coach, and a new quarterback have served as the pillars of this sporting renaissance, though we’re going to focus on the latter two: Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels. Of course, we’re all familiar with Quinn, who is infamous for presiding over the largest collapse in Super Bowl history, when his Falcons blew a 28-3 lead against the Patriots in Super Bowl LI. However, the 54-year-old was also one of the architects of Seattle’s vaunted Legion of Boom defense that very nearly led that franchise to back-to-back Lombardi Trophies, while most recently turning Dallas’ defense into a takeaway juggernaut. Poaching him from the Cowboys was nothing short of a coupe for the Commanders, with Quinn doing a solid job with his current charges. However, any turnaround is made infinitely easier when you have a QB playing at a high level, which brings us to Daniels (pictured below), the second overall pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft. The runaway favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, the Heisman winner has been a seamless fit within (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury’s system, completing 68.7% of his throws for an average of 214.7 yards on a healthy 7.22 net yards per attempt, with nine touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 464 yards and four more scores to boot. Adept at making plays with both his arm and legs, Daniels is the primary reason as to why this group has so been so good at moving the chains, ranking third overall in third down percentage (44.7%), while his ball security and decision-making has been wiser than his years would suggest as Washington has committed the fewest turnovers in the NFL thus far (4). With that being said, he received his first true test against a tough veteran defense in last weekend’s showdown with the Steelers, who bested them in an entertaining 28-27 affair from FedEx Field. The hosts were held to a season-low 242 total yards, including a meager sixty on the ground, as the visitors stacked the box and dared the rookie to beat them with his arm. With that in mind, Daniels completed just half of his thirty-four attempts for 202 yards, while being subject to intense pressure from Pittsburgh, suffering three sacks, as many hits and countless more pressures. Despite that, Quinn’s troops wrestled back control of the game by scoring seventeen unanswered points to take a 24-14 lead into the fourth quarter but were ultimately unable to match the physicality of their opponent, particularly on the ground, where the Steelers plowed through the defense to the tune of 140 rushing yards on forty-three carries. This has been a bit of a growing concern for Washington of late, as the run defense ranks twenty-eighth overall in yards (142.7) and yards per carry shipped (4.9), with 168.7 relinquished in the last three outings. Eventually, you have start committing extra defenders to the line of scrimmage in an effort to deter the run game, though the home side was made to pay for doing just that, yielding a game-winning 32-yard touchdown pass in single coverage with no help from the Safety. Simply put, this is something that they must correct with the Eagles up next on a short week, with fewer teams willing to pound the rock like they do.
From a betting perspective, the Commanders may be 7-3 straight-up thus far, but they have been marginally more rewarding against the spread (7-2-1), parlaying to a net profit of 4.36 units. After falling in their season opener, they put together a stellar run of eight consecutive games without a spread loss (7-0-1 ATS), before last weekend’s defeat against the Steelers in which they were favored by 1.5 points. During his coaching career, Quinn is 7-17 versus the spread when coming off a SU loss as a favorite, including 2-9 as an underdog, which is precisely where he finds himself tonight. Washington has covered five consecutive games against NFC competition, while posting a 4-0-1 record ATS when receiving 0.5-3.0 points from the oddsmakers, along with four straight covers as a road dog within that same range. However, they have also failed to cover four in a row after being relegated below 250 total yards, which is also the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 4-4 ATS as a road dog on Thursday nights, with nine of their thirteen away games going over the projected total. Looking at this particular matchup, the Redskins/Football Team/Commanders own a narrow 89-85-6 advantage in the all-time series between these classic rivals, though have dropped seven of the last ten meetings since 2019 but are 5-3-2 ATS in those encounters. In fact, they have been rather rewarding in these annual pilgrimages to Lincoln Financial Field, owning a 3-1-1 record ATS in their last five affairs in Philadelphia. As 9-point dogs in their last trip to Eastern Pennsylvania, they gave the hosts all they could handle in a spirited 34-31 tilt, before drawing level as 7-point home dogs in their most recent meeting, a 38-31 loss at FedEx Field. (Young Tailback) Brian Robinson Jr. compiled seventy-nine yards from scrimmage on twelve touches in the latter of the two games, while (veteran Wideout) Terry McLaurin has reeled in fifty-eight receptions on eighty-one targets for 847 yards and four touchdowns in ten career contests. The public doesn’t appear to be very confident in Quinn & Co. tonight, as approximately 38% of all wagers placed upon the spread are taking the points, while an even smaller share of the overall money changing hands has followed suit (31%). On the injury front, (newly acquired Cornerback) Marshon Lattimore has yet to practice since arriving via trade from New Orleans due to a tender hamstring, while (veteran Kicker) Autin Seibert, who stabilized the kicking game earlier in the season, remains out with an ailing hip. Keep an eye on the offensive line, folks, for there could be some issues in the trenches for Washington, as Tyler Biadasz (ribs), Brandon Coleman (shoulder), Cornelius Lucas (ankle), and Andrew Wylie (shoulder) are all listed as questionable for this short turnaround due to various maladies. Robinson too is at risk after missing last week’s loss to Pittsburgh with an ailing hamstring of his own. Looking ahead, the Commanders will stay within the division for a date with the struggling Cowboys, before hosting another bottom-feeder, the Titans, followed by the bye week.
Meanwhile, after an inauspicious start, it appears that the Eagles (7-2, 1st in NFC East) have found their wings, winning five games in a row following their bye week. So much of Philadelphia’s story this Fall has been about writing the wrong that was their stunning collapse in 2023, which of course, came off the heels of falling just short of Lombardi glory in Super Bowl LVII. Losing six of your final seven games following a 10-1 start is bound to leave a bad taste in anyone’s mouth, particularly that of (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni, who opted to turn over his coaching staff for the second year in a row, firing both his coordinators in the process. As such, these birds are remarkably the first team in NFL history to begin three consecutive campaigns with different offensive and defensive coordinators, as Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio were hired to fill those respective vacancies. After a bit of an awkward grace period, it is clear that both tacticians have become acclimated with the considerable amount of talent that Philly possesses on each side of the football. Moore, who is very familiar with the team’s personnel from his days as Dallas’ OC, has hit his stride during this stretch; over the last four contests, the offense has averaged 31.7 points on 382.7 total yards, including a robust 213.5 yards via the run, and committing just three turnovers. (Veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts appears to have put the turnover woes that plagued him last year in the rearview mirror, completing a career-high 69.8% of his throws for 1,976 yards on 6.3 net yards per attempt, with twelve touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while remaining a dangerous rushing threat with TEN touchdowns on the ground. Pairing his talents with that of (former Pro-Bowl Tailback) Saquon Barkley (pictured below alongside Hurts) has been as lethal as advertised, with the former Giants star already surpassing his rushing total from last year with 991 yards and six scores in five fewer games, logging a career-best 5.8 yards per carry. As for Fangio, it was only a matter of time before the venerable mastermind would turn this defense into a monster; on the season, the Eagles have corrected the pass-defense woes that crippled them down the stretch, ranking fifth in points allowed (17.9), second in total defense (274.0), third against the pass (173.4), fifth versus the run (100.6), thirteenth on third down (35.8%), and third in the red zone (42.3%). Furthermore, they have shipped eight passing touchdowns in comparison to snaring six interceptions, which is a major improvement over the 35/9 ratio they allowed in 2023. Of course, it certainly helps to have an infusion of youth in the Secondary, with Sirianni and (longtime General Manager) Howie Roseman selecting (Defensive Backs) Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first two rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft. While neither has picked off a pass yet, they have combined for eleven deflections and have been sure tacklers with forty solo stops. The defense was a major component in the Eagles’ 34-6 drubbing of the decimated Cowboys last weekend, yielding a scant 146 total yards, including a mere sixty-six through the air (49 net yards!) and eleven first downs. In fact, that translates to an insane 1.68 net yards per attempt, which must be the lowest such figure in the long, bitter rivalry between these two franchises. Fangio’s unit also forced FIVE takeaways, four of which were fumbles, which is another remarkable figure unto itself. As you can imagine, Hurts & Co didn’t need much to get the win in Arlington, though nonetheless amassed 348 total yards, including 187 on the ground, possessing the football for a commanding 34:01. True to his name, Hurts inflicted pain on the Cowboys via his arm (202 yards) and legs (56 yards) combining for four total touchdowns, while (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown hauled in five receptions on seven targets for 109 yards. As for Barkley, he only accounted for seventy-eight yards on twelve touches, which should give you an idea just how formidable this team can be even when he isn’t going ham on the opposition.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be 7-2 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (5-4), parlaying to a net profit of 0.55 units. This is a team that has generally followed a fairly reliable pattern this season, alternating wins and loss versus the spread three times thus far, achieving back-to-back covers on one occasion. Under the direction of Sirianni, they are 29-33-3 ATS since he was hired back in 2021, including 11-10 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, 17-15 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 16-14 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 7-7 ATS versus their fellow NFC East residents. Furthermore, they are just 8-20 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, which as we detailed earlier, is the case tonight. Philadelphia has covered EIGHT of their last ten games against opponents with a win percentage above .600 over the past three years, though have failed to cover each of their last five outings after scoring 30+ points, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, these birds are 4-3 as home favorites on Thursday nights. As for Hurts, he is a mediocre 14-15 ATS at home over the course of his career, 21-24 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, though is a dismal 7-22 ATS versus an opponent with revenge, and 14-14 ATS when coming off consecutive SU victories. Furthermore, he is only 8-12 ATS against division foes, with his most rewarding role being that of a home favorite (12-10 ATS), which he is ironically 0-3 ATS so far this season. As we covered earlier, the Eagles may trail the Commanders in the all-time series by four games, but they have owned the rivalry of late, with five victories in their last six meetings (1-3-1 ATS). In their first encounter from last Fall, it took overtime to decide a winner as the two sides combined for 780 total yards, with (veteran Kicker) Jake Elliott drilling the 54-yard walk-off field goal. When they met a month later in Landover, it was another spirited contest, as Philly was outgained 472-374 in total yards, though managed to turn the tables with TWENTY-ONE unanswered points in the fourth quarter aided by an interception and forcing back-to-back turnovers on down. Needless to say, HURTS has THRIVED against Washington throughout his career, owning a 5-2 record with an average of 277.0 total yards and a whopping SEVENTEEN touchdowns, his most against any single opponent. Between those two affairs from last season, he completed 72.0% of his throws for an average of 319.0 yards on 8.34 net yards per attempt, with SIX touchdowns and zero interceptions. Furthermore, the aforementioned Brown has been dominant in these encounters, reeling in seventeen catches for 305 yards and four touchdowns. On the injury front, Philadelphia has been getting gradually healthier over the past few weeks, though the likes of (veteran Receiver) DeVonta Smith (hamstring), (veteran Cornerback) Darius Slay (ankle), (young Linebacker) Nakobe Dean (groin), and (veteran Tight End) Dallas Goedert (ankle) are all listed as questionable for this midweek clash due to lingering maladies. Looking ahead, the Eagles will hit the road for the next two weeks, flying westward to Los Angeles to battle the Rams, before making their return to the east coast where the formidable Ravens wait for a potential Super Bowl preview.