9:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Washington -3.5, Total: 45.5
Former Pac-12 rivals turned BIG 10 neighbors cross paths once again, as the suddenly surging UCLA Bruins look to take another step towards bowl eligibility in this trip to Seattle, where the Washington Huskies await under the bright Friday night lights of Husky Stadium. One of the most gratifying things for a coach is when their team finally figures it out and turns the corner, paying off endless hard work and effort, which very well may be where we find UCLA (4-5, 3-4 in BIG 10). Needless to say, this campaign had all the makings of a truly difficult one for a program that was not only making a huge transition to a very competitive conference, but was doing so after being left hanging in the wind by their head coach. That’s right folks, (former Head Coach) Chip Kelly opted to leave Pasadena to serve as an offensive coordinator for a team in the very same league his old school was moving to, doing so at such a late point in the hiring cycle that most legitimate candidates were already off the board. So, what did the Bruins do, you ask? Well, they looked inward and promoted (Running Backs Coach) Deshaun Foster, which was viewed as a real surprise. Of course, Foster (pictured below) starred for his alma mater from 1999 to 2001 and had been an assistant on Kelly’s staff from 2017 to 2023, so there was hope that he could keep the ball rolling. After all, this is a program that had strung together three straight 8-win campaigns for the first time since 1988. However, UCLA got off to a dreadful start, losing five consecutive contests following the season opener, due in large part to an anemic attack that struggled to rush the football with much success. Foster watched his ground game muster just 57.2 yards per game on a meager 2.2 yards per carry during that stretch, coincidentally posting a turnover differential of -8 along the way. Thankfully, the Bruins have since found their running legs, with three straight wins coming as a result. In victories over Rutgers (35-32), Nebraska (27-20), and most recently Iowa (20-17), the ground game churned out a much healthier 148.3 yards on 6.3 yards per attempt. Simply put, when you can run like that, the entire playbook opens up, which is something that (Offensive Coordinator) Eric Bieniemy has taken advantage of. Look no further than that win over the Hawkeyes, which was their first in front of the faithful at the Rose Bowl this Fall. Despite trailing 10-0, Foster’s troops battled back with seventeen unanswered points, highlighted by a pair of touchdown passes courtesy of (Senior Quarterback) Ethan Garbers and a 57-yard field goal from (Cal Transfer) Mateen Bhaghani. The visitors would draw level early in the fourth quarter, though the hosts would retake the lead with another Bhaghani kick, this time holding it for good. When it was all said and done, UCLA toppled Iowa at their own game, outrushing them 211-80, which proved to be the decisive factor in an affair in which each team committed three turnovers. Garbers completed 21-of-34 passes for 203 yards, those two scores and a pair of picks, while (Junior Tailback) T.J. Harden pummeled his way to a season-high 125 yards and two touchdowns of his own. (Defensive Coordinator) Ikaika Malloe’s unit did a tremendous job of relegating an attack that had scored 40+ points in back-to-back games to 265 total yards, as (Junior Linebacker) Carson Schwesinger logged two interceptions, while (fellow Linebacker) Femi Oladejo came up with a pair of sacks. Winning breeds confidence, and with three consecutive victories under their belts, the Bruins have become a confident group, which should only bode well for them as they head into the final stretch of games, providing a solid base for Foster to build upon.
From a betting perspective, UCLA may be 4-5 straight-up thus far, but they have been far more rewarding against the spread (6-3), parlaying to a net profit of 2.45 units. With last weekend’s triumph over Iowa, they have now covered three consecutive games for a second time this Fall, though the difference between this latest run and its predecessor is the fact that they have won all three of them outright. In fact, only one team in the Power-4 conferences has won more games despite being an underdog (3), who are 6-2 SU/ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers so far. Dating back to last season, the Bruins have covered seven of their last ten trips away from Pasadena, including five straight outings as a road dog. This one feels like cheating now that they’re a member of the BIG 10, but Foster’s troops have been on a heater against foes from their new conference, with TEN covers in their last thirteen affairs against such competition. This is a team that was also 1-4 ATS when coming off a SU dog victory prior to this season but have since won and covered two in a row when in that role. Looking at this particular matchup, UCLA owns a 42-32-2 advantage in the all-time series between these programs, winning six of the last ten encounters dating back to 2008, including the most recent, a 40-32 tilt from the Rose Bowl two years ago. 2.5-point home dogs, the Bruins overcame an early 7-2 deficit, scoring TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points between the middle of the second and third quarters. Leading 33-10 in the second half, the hosts would ship a pair of late touchdowns to the Huskies, but it would be a case of too little, too late for the visiting side. Both teams logged over 400 total yards of offense, though the bears rolled out 499 yards thanks in large part to a significant edge in rushing (184-65), along with a 2-0 advantage in takeaways, both of which were interceptions. (Former Quarterback) Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 24-of-33 throws for 315 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for another fifty-three yards and one more score in a stellar upset of (No. 15) Washington. As a player, Foster split his two meetings with the dogs, rushing for a career-high 301 yards and four touchdowns in a 35-13 victory back in 2001. On the injury front, there a slew of questionables for Foster, including a number of pass-catchers, including (Junior Wideout) Logan Loya, (Sophomore Receiver) Rico Flores, and (fellow Junior) J. Michael Sturdivant, who have all been beset by respective bumps and bruises. Between the three, that is a combined fifty-one receptions, 669 yards, and six touchdowns, with Loya leading the team in yards (294), and scores (4). Looking ahead, UCLA will renew acquaintances with their crosstown rivals USC next weekend at the Rose Bowl, which will also be their final conference contest of the campaign, ending their regular season schedule with a visit from Fresno State on November 30th.
Meanwhile, Washington (5-5, 3-4 in BIG 10) is also beginning a new era under new leadership in a new conference, and like their opponent tonight, has found navigation through this new landscape to be arduous. One of the four traditional Pac-12 powers to make the transition to the bloated BIG 10, the Huskies should have been the marquee program making the leap. After all, they had gone 25-3 in the previous two years, capturing the final Pac-12 Title and advancing all the way to the National Championship Game, which was their first appearance since 1991 when they sat atop the college football world. However, instead of carrying that momentum on over with them, they lost their head coach, as Kalen DeBoer bolted to Alabama, nearly the entirety of his coaching staff, and a wealth of talent, be it to the NFL Draft (10 selections!) or to the Transfer Portal, leaving behind a program needing to be rebuilt once again. Enter (Head Coach) Jedd Fisch, who was all too eager to make the leap from Tucson to Seattle. Needless to say, the 48-year-old has been all over the proverbial map shifting between the collegiate and NFL ranks over the last twenty-five years, though most know him from the solid job that he performed at Arizona; inheriting a winless program following the COVID-19 pandemic, Fisch (pictured below) built them into a 10-win team in just three years, beating FIVE different ranked opponents last Fall and very nearly upset his current employer in a 31-24 affair. Simply put, Washington is in very capable hands, even if they have been treading water around .500 in their first year in the BIG 10. As has been the case for all of the former Pac-12 schools (apart from Oregon), traveling such a long distance to the eastern time zone has been a challenge, as the Huskies have lost all four of their trips eastward, but they have been successful in their two matchups against traditional BIG 10 teams that have in turn made the long trip west to the Pacific Northwest, including a measure of sweet revenge in a 27-17 National Title Game rematch against Michigan. We don’t doubt that this is something that all schools involved with get used to, but it is something to consider in the meantime, which continued to be the case in last weekend’s trip to Happy Valley to battle (No. 4) Penn State, who just suffered their first loss a week beforehand. As far as litmus tests go, Washington was left wanting in this 35-6 defeat; the visitors struggled to get anything going as they trailed 28-0 at halftime and were only able to muster a pair of field goals after intermission, ending the game with just 193 total yards on fourteen first downs and seventy-four rushing yards despite thirty-three carries. Both Will Rogers and Demond Williams got an opportunity to play at Quarterback, with the former netting just fifty-nine yards and an interception on 10-of-13 passes, while the latter compiled sixty yards on 6-of-10 attempts along with another thirty-eight rushing yards on ten carries. Rogers, a fifth-year senior transfer from Mississippi State has seen the majority of the action this season, completing 71.4% of his throws for 234.3 yards on 8.1 yards per attempt, thirteen touchdowns and five interceptions, though the touted freshman, Williams, has featured in all ten games, particularly the ones that have gotten out of hand. There are weapons to be found on this side of the football, including (Junior Tailback) Jonah Coleman, who followed Fisch from Arizona, rushing for 913 yards and seven touchdowns, while (Wideouts) Giles Jackson and Denzel Boston have each hauled in 50+ receptions for 600+ yards. Only a sophomore, the latter has also reeled in nine touchdowns, looking like the next great pass-catcher to come out of the program. Defensively, this unit led by none other than Steve Belichick (you may know his dad), has been stouter than expected given they had only four returning starters. UW has allowed 20.6 points (27th in FBS) on 312.1 total yards, including 149.8 through the air on 5.3 yards per attempt, led by (Senior Linebacker) Carson Bruener, who has compiled seventy-eight tackles, two for loss, a forced fumble, three interceptions, and five deflected passes.
From a betting perspective, Washington is on the flipside of things, winning half of their games straight-up thus far, but are only 4-6 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 2.36 units. They have yet to cover back-to-back games this Fall, with just one cover in their last four outings. Over the course of his coaching career, Fisch is 27-22 versus the spread, including 7-6 as a home favorite, 19-16 against conference opponents, and 15-9 when coming off a SU defeat. Resilience is the key term when it comes to the Huskies, who are 10-2 ATS in their last twelve games following a double-digit SU road loss versus and opponent with a win percentage above .200, which is the case tonight, while riding an 8-1-1 run when hosting BIG 10 opposition at Husky Stadium. However, these dogs have covered just one of their last nine outings after shipping 35+ points, while being mired in a streak of four consecutive non-covers as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points, with both trends proving relevant tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, we touched upon Washington’s struggles in the all-time series, losing five of their last twenty encounters SU dating back to 1997, going 5-14-1 ATS along the way. With that being said, they have split the last four tilts, covering one of them to boot, with five of the last six contests going over the projected total. When they last crossed paths in that aforementioned 40-32 affair from two years ago, the Huskies found themselves trailing 40-16 heading into the fourth quarter, only for (former Quarterback) Michael Penix Jr. to catch fire with a pair of touchdown passes to cut the deficit to eight points. Unfortunately, the visitors couldn’t get the football back, suffering their first loss of the campaign following a promising 4-0 start. Most have probably forgotten, but Fisch actually served as UCLA’s interim head coach for two games, taking over Jim Mora in the final stages of the 2017 campaign. He spent most of the season as Mora’s offensive coordinator, though stepped up to guide the Bruins to bowl eligibility at 6-6 before losing to Kansas State in the Cactus Bowl (35-17). During his time in Arizona, Fisch went 2-1 SU/ATS versus his former employer, including successive upsets in 2022 and 2023, the former in which the bears were ranked ninth in the AP Poll. The betting public is all over the home team in this matchup, with approximately 87% of all wagers placed upon the spread donning purple, with an even larger share of the total volume of money wagered thus far (90%) following suit. On the injury front, (Junior Cornerback) Elijah Jackson along with (Tight Ends) Quentin Moore and Ryan Otton are listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s showdown in Seattle due to undisclosed maladies. Looking ahead, Washinton will enjoy their second and final bye of the season before renewing acquaintances with longtime Pac-12 rival, (No. 1) Oregon on November 30th.