12:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Clemson -10, Total: 53.5
With the ACC now wide open following a crazy early November weekend, the race for a spot in the Playoff has never been more competitive, as the (No. 17) Clemson Tigers travel to Acrisure Stadium to battle the reeling Pittsburgh Panthers in what is very much an elimination game for both sides. Though each team owns two losses apiece, Clemson (7-2, 6-1 in ACC) has a leg up on their opponent due to having only one conference defeat; they fell victim to (preseason No. 1) Georgia in a 34-3 affair in Atlanta, only to rally back with six consecutive victories before (No. 22) Louisville got the better of them two weeks ago. Many pundits were calling for this season to see a resurgence from the Tigers, who saw a streak of TWELVE consecutive 10-win campaigns come to a close last Fall. In the ever-shifting landscape of college football, (longtime Head Coach) Dabo Swinney had drawn criticism for not embracing the endless opportunities of the Transfer Portal, choosing instead to rely upon the internal growth and development that led the program to eight ACC titles and a pair of National Championships in ten years. Indeed, Swinney has been dogged in anti-transfer policy, losing thirteen players to the portal in the offseason and not signing a single one. Hell, since 2019, he has signed just THREE transfers, or in other words, less than 20% of the volume that Ole Miss added last Spring. Instead, these cats have a whopping fifty-seven lettermen returning to Memorial Stadium, which has been evident in their improvement from last season; Clemson has averaged 37.7 points per game (14th in FBS) on 473.4 total yards, parlaying to a robust 6.4 yards per play, with (Junior Quarterback) Cade Klubnik getting closer towards reaching the potential that had him ranked as the top overall recruit at his position. A year ago, Klubnik (pictured below) led the conference in both passing attempts (454) and completions (290), though didn’t stretch the field nearly enough to Swinney’s liking (6.3 yards per attempt, 9.8 yards per completion), while tossing a modest nineteen touchdowns in comparison to nine interceptions. This season, he has pushed the ball downfield with greater success (7.4 y/a, 11.7 y/c), with a far better TD/INT ratio (24/4), while making more use of his underrated mobility (300 rushing yards, 4 TD). Last weekend’s 24-14 victory at Virginia Tech was far from his cleanest performance, though it was nonetheless impressive. After the Hokies returned a missed field goal forty-six yards to the house, Klubnik led the visitors to TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points, accounting for three touchdowns between in a 15:00 span between the third and fourth quarters, hitting (Sophomore Receiver) Cole Turner and (Freshman Wideout) T.J. Moore for scores of twenty-nine and forty-six yards. When it was all said and done, the Tigers outgained the home side 378-228 in total yards, including 167-40 in rushing yards, with the quarterback overcoming an inefficient 16-of-34 passing and an interception, totaling three passing touchdowns. (Senior Tailback) Phil Mafah spearheaded the ground game with 128 yards on twenty-six carries, while Klubnik grinded out thirty of his own on fifteen attempts. It was also good to see (Defensive Coordinator) Wes Goodwin’s unit bounce back after shipping 30+ points in back-to-back outings, relegating Va Tech to less than 250 yards and logging three takeaways, with (Senior Safety) R.J. Mickens and (Freshman Cornerback) Ashton Hampton each picking off a pass, while (Freshman Linebacker) Sammy Brown totaled eight tackles, 2.5 for a loss, and one sack. With a win this afternoon in Western Pennsylvania, these cats will have completed their conference schedule with only one loss, meaning that they’ll need some help as (No. 14) SMU currently sits atop the ACC without a league defeat, while their chances of competing in the conference title game will depend on how (No. 12) Miami finishes as well.
From a betting perspective, Clemson may be 7-2 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (5-4), parlaying to a net profit of 0.55 units. After that drubbing at the hands of Georgia in the opener, these cats earned their stripes with four covers in their ensuing five games, though have cooled off a bit with one ATS victory in their past three outings. Under the leadership of Swinney, this is a program that is a stellar 121-98-3 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2008, including 33-30-1 as a favorite away from home, 82-57-3 against their fellow ACC residents, and 87-69 when coming off a SU win. Furthermore, the Tigers are 12-2 ATS following a double-digit ATS win and facing a team with a win percentage above .333, while covering five of their last six contests in the month of November. With that being said, they are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven outings after allowing fewer than twenty points in the previous game, which is the case this afternoon. It should also be noted that this is a school that has won each of their last NINE road finales, going 5-3-1 ATS along the way. Looking at this particular matchup, Clemson trails the all-time series 2-3, losing the most recent encounter, a 27-17 affair at Acrisure Stadium from 2021. After drawing first blood with a 7-0 lead, the hosts took control and never looked back, running off twenty-one unanswered points, highlighted by a 50-yard interception return to the house. (Former Quarterback) D.J. Uiagalelei struggled in this one, completing just 12-of-25 throws for 128 yards and two picks, as the offense as a whole was outgained 464-315 in total yards. With that in mind, the public likes the Tigers today, with roughly 60% of all wagers placed upon the spread donning orange, while a much larger share of all money being wagered thus far (80%) following suit. On the injury front, (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Peter Woods and (Senior Defensive Tackle) Demonte Capehart are both listed as questionable with undisclosed maladies, which could be an issue given that they are part of a solid rotation of linemen in the trenches, combining for one sack, a forced fumble, and 6.5 tackles for loss. Looking ahead, the Tigers will return to Memorial Stadium to host the Citadel next weekend, before renewing acquaintances with their instate rivals, (No. 23) South Carolina in the regular season finale.
Meanwhile, what had been such an impressive season for Pittsburgh (7-2, 3-2 in ACC) has gone off the tracks in recent weeks as a stellar 7-0 start has turned into back-to-back losses. During his ten years with the program (Head Coach) Pat Narduzzi has really carved out a niche for himself; even after a disappointing 3-9 campaign, the 58-year-old has recorded more conference wins (46) than any other coach in the ACC apart from the man he is competing against this afternoon. With nine starters back on the offensive side of the football, this team has skewed heavily towards the attack, particularly under (new Offensive Coordinator) Kade Bell and with (Alabama transfer) Eli Holstein at quarterback. Through the first seven games, the Panthers averaged 40.8 points on 443.5 total yards, including 282.7 yards through the air, while Holstein (pictured below) was on FIRE through the first five contests, completing 65.7% of his passes for 313.4 yards on 9.1 yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns and three interceptions. Hell, he even flashed some mobility with 265 yards and three more scores during that stretch. However, in the last four games those figures have all plummeted with the redshirt freshman completing just 56.1% of his throws for a meager 152.5 yards on 5.3 yards per attempt with two touchdowns, three interceptions, and zero rushing scores. With that being said, it should be noted that Holstein departed two of those games early after taking a blow to his head, including last weekend’s upset loss to Virginia (24-19), in which he left the field of play after taking a high shot in the third quarter. For those wondering, he had struggled to find much of a rhythm to that point, connecting on just 10-of-23 throws for 121 yards, while the Cavaliers stormed back to take the lead. Narduzzi has yet to pronounce whether or not his quarterback will be cleared in time to start this afternoon, and if that happens to be the case, then it will be up to the incumbent Nate Yarnell to carry the load; the junior has appeared in twelve games over the course of his collegiate career, including six this Fall, tossing five touchdowns in comparison to a pair of interceptions, though doesn’t offer much as a rushing threat. Yarnell relieved Holstein in the second half last weekend, failing to inspire a comeback despite cutting the deficit to two points with a touchdown early in the fourth quarter, as he was intercepted twice. These were costly mistakes, as the first pick led directly to a Virginia touchdown late in the third period, while the latter came on a desperate hurl downfield with less than two minutes to go, effectively ending the game. It was the third time in four games that Pitt was held below 300 total yards of offense, which is NOT the direction you want to be trending in when you’re in the middle of a conference title race. At this point, these cats have two conference losses, which places them firmly behind SMU, Miami, and Clemson in the pecking order, though with three ACC games left, there is still a window of opportunity to turn things around and earn a spot in the conference championship game. No matter who starts at QB, Narduzzi, who is certainly one of the better defensive minds in the country, will be begging for a strong performance from a defense that has been a work in progress throughout the season. With just four returning starters on this side of the football, the Panthers have been up and down, shipping 25.1 points (73rd in FBS) on 361.4 total yards, including a disappointing 251.7 through the air, living and dying on takeaways (15) more than anything else.
From a betting perspective, Pittsburgh may be 7-2 straight-up thus far, but they too have been less-rewarding against the spread (6-3), parlaying to a net profit of 2.45 units. They sure as hell got off a to a blistering start, covering their first five outings of the campaign, but came crashing back down to earth in that regard, with only a single cover in their last four games. Under the direction of Narduzzi, this is a program that is 63-58-3 versus the spread since he was hired back in 2015, including 10-9 as a home underdog, 44-36-1 against their fellow residents in the ACC, and 26-20 when coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, the Panthers are 12-6 SU in their last eighteen contests in the month of November, though it should be noted that five of those defeats have come in their last six such games. However, Pitt has covered eight consecutive home games following back-to-back SU defeats and facing a conference opponent with at least one loss, which is precisely the case this afternoon. They have also won eight straight outings on Senior Day, though have covered the spread in just three of them. Looking at this particular matchup, these schools have only met five times on the gridiron, with this showdown in Western Pennsylvania being just the third contested at Heinz Field/Acrisure Stadium, where they have split the previous two encounters. When they last crossed paths, Pittsburgh dominated Clemson in that aforementioned 27-17 affair, in which (former Quarterback) Kenny Pickett eviscerated the Tigers’ defense, completing 25-of-39 passes for 302 yards and a pair of touchdowns en route to earning ACC Offensive Player of the Year and Player of the Year honors. That particular team remains the high-water mark for not only Narduzzi’s decade-long tenure with the program, but for the past forty-eight years; Pitt strung together three consecutive 11-win campaigns between 1979 and 1981, a few years after winning their lone National Championship in 1976. On the injury front, the aforementioned Holstein is listed as questionable with a possible concussion, while (Senior Receiver) Konata Mumpfield is also questionable after exiting the loss against Virginia with an undisclosed injury. It goes without saying how important Holstein is to the offense, but Mumpfield has been a large component of their success through the air, leading the team in receptions (35) and receiving yards (560). Keep in mind that is a unit that is already without (Senior Left Tackle) Branson Taylor, who tore his ACL three weeks ago. Looking ahead, Pittsburgh will be on the road for their final two games of the regular season, traveling to Louisville next weekend before wrapping up the schedule at Chestnut Hill against Boston College.