4:25 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Bills -2.5, Total: 46.0
In a stellar Week Eleven that is littered with excellent matchups, our attention is drawn to Western New York for a renewal of acquaintances between familiar foes, as the (unbeaten reigning Super Bowl Champion) Kansas City Chiefs cross paths with the surging Buffalo Bills, who are keen on ending their bid for perfection. We’ve said it time and time again when it comes to the Chiefs (9-0, 1st in AFC West): the more things change, the more they stay the same. This dynasty currently consisting of three Lombardi Trophies in five years began with a high-powered juggernaut of an offense buoyed by a defense just trying to keep up, to now being a much more methodical attack playing complementary football to one of the toughest defenses in the league. Indeed, five years is an awfully long time in the NFL, particularly from a personnel perspective, with Kansas City having done a masterful job of walking the proverbial tight rope of turning over their roster in key areas while managing to remain competitive. (Head Coach) Andy Reid and (General Manager) Brett Veach have been nothing short of shrewd operators in this regard, trading away some of their best talents (Tyreek Hill, L’Jarius Sneed) and striking paydirt with the draft picks that they have received in return, continuously developing those selections into capable contributors on both sides of the football. (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo has cultivated his unit into a borderline elite defense, ranking fifth in points allowed (17.9), fourth in total yards given up (289.8), and third against the run (83.2), which has in turn gifted the offense the luxury of taking it relatively slow in the face of a number of injuries. Coming into this season, the intention was to return to the high-flying early stages of their dynasty, as the Chiefs went about adding firepower to the receiving corps with vertical threats such as (former Cardinals Wideout) Marquise Brown and (2024 28th Overall Pick) Xavier Worthy. However, Brown never made it out of training camp after suffering a significant shoulder injury, while last year’s find, (Sophomore Receiver) Rashee Rice was lost for the season after just four games. Furthermore, (third-year Tailback) Isiah Pacheco broke a bone in his lower leg back in early September and has been out of action ever since. To fill the voids left in their wake, Kansas City was quick to bring back a pair of former players, Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster, while swinging for the fences at the Trade Deadline with the acquisition of (former All-Pro Wideout) DeAndre Hopkins in a deal with Tennessee. So, where has this left (veteran Quarterback) Patrick Mahomes, you ask? Well, despite completing a career-high 69.5% of his throws, Mahomes (pictured below) has also posted career-worsts in yards per game (245.3), net yards per attempt (6.30), touchdown percentage (3.9%), and interception percentage (2.9%). Seriously, if this team wasn’t still undefeated, the question on everyone’s minds would be what’s wrong with Mahomes? Such was the case with last weekend’s narrow 16-14 victory over division rival, Denver, which saw the hosts snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. In what was very much a defensive slugfest, the visitors finally got going on their final drive of the evening, marching forty-three yards downfield in thirteen plays, setting up a potential 35-yard field goal to win the game. However, the Chiefs had other plans as (young Linebacker) Leo Chenal reached over the line of scrimmage and BLOCKED the kick, ending the affair and sending the crowd at Arrowhead Stadium into a frenzy. Kansas City managed just 300 total yards on nineteen first downs, were held to fifty-seven rushing yards on nineteen carries, and were forced to convert a pair of fourth downs just to keep the chains moving, but ultimately found a way to win as they have so often before. Mahomes completed 28-of-42 passes for 266 yards and a touchdown, though was sacked four times, hit on five occasions, and pressured on 26.5% of his drop-backs as the Broncos blitzed him on thirteen plays. Despite rushing for just thirty-five yards, Hunt hauled in seven balls on ten targets for sixty-five yards, while (veteran Tight End) Travis Kelce was responsible for the lone aerial score, a short flick into the end zone before halftime.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may be unbeaten at 9-0 straight-up, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (4-4-1), parlaying to a net loss of 0.36 units. After covering four of their first six games (4-1-1 ATS), they have since failed to cover each of their last three outings. The magic number for this team has been six points, for when the spread has been greater than that threshold, they are 0-4-1 in that regard. Under the leadership of Reid, this is a franchise that is 148-93-4 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2013, including 57-38-1 away from Arrowhead Stadium, 29-14 as an underdog, 73-60-1 when facing an opponent harboring revenge, and 78-67-1 when coming off a SU win. Furthermore, his teams have covered a staggering TWELVE of their last thirteen games as a road dog, which is the case this evening. As for Mahomes, the proverbial magic man is a near lock when receiving points from the oddsmakers, covering FIFTEEN of sixteen affairs as an underdog, including all TEN games in which he has been given points on the road. Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs may trail the all-time series between these franchises (25-29-1 SU), but they are 6-4 SU/ATS in the last ten meetings, including 3-0 in the postseason. Of course, when these sides met in last January’s divisional playoff, Kansas City stormed into Orchard Park as a 2.5-point dog and left with a 27-24 victory. The visitors lost the turnover battle 1-0 and possessed the football for just 22:57, but met little resistance in moving the chains, facing just five third downs on the night en route to posting 361 total yards, with the biggest difference in the contest being a key stop that Spagnuolo’s troops made on fourth down early in the fourth quarter, before breathing a sigh of relief after the hosts missed a 44-yard field goal that would have forced overtime. Mahomes completed 17-of-23 passes for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns with both scores hauled in by Kelce, who caught five balls for seventy-five yards. The aforementioned Pacheco, who was just activated from Injured Reserve, plowed through Buffalo’s defense, with ninety-seven rushing yards and a touchdown on fifteen carries. Getting back to No. 15, the two-time MVP is 4-3 SU in his stellar career versus the Bills, completing 68.2% of his throws for an average of 289.1 yards on 7.41 net yards per attempt, with fifteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. Again, despite winning just one of four regular season encounters with a 7/5 TD/INT ratio, he is a perfect 3-0 in the postseason with eight touchdowns and no picks. The public is getting the message, folks, as a commanding 79% of all wagers placed upon the spread this evening is riding with the two-time reigning champions, while a slightly larger share of the total volume of money changing hands (80%) has followed suit. On the injury front, as we touched upon earlier, Pacheco is back in practice after missing the last seven games with a broken fibula, though is unlikely to make his return today. Smith-Schuster is also out due to a lingering hamstring strain, while (veteran Defensive Lineman) Tershawn Wharton has been limited throughout the practice week with a bulky knee. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will remain on the road for a trip to Charlotte to battle the lowly Panthers, before returning home to Arrowhead for their annual visit from the Raiders in a special Black Friday affair.
Meanwhile, that adage of the more things changing, the more they stay the same also applies to the Bills (8-2, 1st in AFC East), who look well on their way to securing a fifth consecutive division crown. The theme in Orchard Park this season is all about addition by subtraction, as (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane parted ways with a number of veteran stalwarts with a turn to youth being the mandate. Buffalo has generally done a solid job of drafting and developing talent under the direction of McDermott and Beane, as a plethora of young players have stepped into more advanced roles and flourished under their watch. However, any time you attempt to turn the roster over in so many places, you risk putting too much pressure on your quarterback, which is significant given the persistent criticism that (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen has carried too great a burden in recent years. Indeed, Allen (pictured below) is coming off a campaign in which he tossed twenty-nine touchdowns in comparison to a career-high eighteen interceptions, while also carrying the ground game in the red zone where he rushed for a whopping fifteen scores. With the idea of alleviating his load, trading away (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Stefon Diggs initially ran counter to that notion, though (Offensive Coordinator) Joe Brady’s transition to a more grounded approach offensively (that doesn’t rely upon his QB to do the heavy lifting) has been just what the doctor ordered; (third-year Tailback) James Cook has really stepped into the RB1 role, churning out 576 yards and eight touchdowns on 4.5 yards per carry, while his rookie understudy, Ray Davis, has performed well when given the opportunity. The franchise also proved to be major players at the Trade Deadline, acquiring the services of another Pro-Bowl Receiver, Amari Cooper, in a deal with the Browns. With seven 1,000-yard seasons to his credit, the 30-year-old is very similar in style to Diggs, operating as one of the smoothest route-runners in the NFL, albeit a much quieter one. Since arriving in Buffalo, Cooper paid immediate dividends in his first start, reeling in four catches on five targets for sixty-six yards and a touchdown, though would pick up a wrist injury that has kept him out of action ever since (more on that in a bit). When we last saw the Bills, they marched on to their fifth straight victory, a 30-20 affair in Indianapolis which wasn’t quite as close as that final score would suggest. This one was all about turnovers, folks, as the two sides combined for SIX on the afternoon, two committed by the visitors and four charged to the hosts. Allen was picked off twice, but was otherwise stellar, completing 22-of-37 passes for 280 yards and rushing for another fifty yards on eight carries and a touchdown. Cook added eighty yards and a score of his own, though (Defensive Coordinator) Bobby Babich’s defense literally stole the show with THREE interceptions of Indy’s Joe Flacco, who also lost a fumble on a strip sack. As they have throughout the season, Buffalo continued to bend without breaking, shipping 361 total yards but nonetheless racked up four sacks, a pair of hits, and ten pressures, which equates to a percentage of 25.6%. (Veteran Cornerback) Taron Johnson could be in the midst of a star turn, logging a sack and an interception return to the house, while (fourth-year Edge-Rusher) Gregory Rousseau added a sack, a forced fumble, and his league-leading twelfth tackle for loss. Turnover differential has been by far and away the biggest component to Buffalo’s success thus far in 2024, with a scant six turnovers (3rd Overall) against NINETEEN takeaways (4th Overall), which equates to +/- of +13, best in the NFL. Of course, we all know that this is a team that will ultimately be judged by what they do in the postseason; McDermott’s troops have won ten or more games in each of the previous five seasons, though have fallen short of their goal of bringing a first-ever Lombardi Trophy to Western New York, with three of those defeats coming at the hands of their opponent this evening. Such an opportunistic approach may have them breathing down Kansas City’s neck in the standings, though it remains to be seen if relying on takeaways will continue to bear fruit come January, particularly against better offenses.
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 8-2 straight-up thus far, but they too haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (6-4), parlaying to a net profit of 1.45 units. After covering just two of their first five games, they have since rounded into form with four covers over the last five weeks. Under the leadership of McDermott, this is a team that is 74-58-7 versus the spread since he was hired back in 2017, including 33-31 at Highmark Stadium, 44-35 when favored by the oddsmakers, and 34-31 when harboring revenge. Furthermore, they have covered seven of their last eight encounters with AFC West opponents that are above .500. However, that trend doesn’t necessarily apply to this rivalry with Kansas City, whom they have covered just one of their past five meetings within Orchard Park. Earlier, we discussed the recent history with these teams, which has been odd to say the least; the Bills have gotten the better of the Chiefs in the regular season, but have been stonewalled three times in the playoffs, including last January’s aforementioned 27-24 affair in Western New York. Despite leading for much of the game, there remained a palpable sense of dread for the faithful at Highmark Stadium as the visitors moved up and down the field with ease, eventually taking the lead early in the fourth quarter. The hosts certainly had their opportunities though. First, McDermott opted to roll the dice and go for it on a fourth-and-five from his own 30-yard line, only to be stuffed by the KC defense. Fortunately, they were given a reprieve as the visiting side fumbled the ensuing possession out of the end zone for a touchback. After exchanging punts, Allen & Co had one final opportunity to draw level, marching fifty-four yards downfield via a 16-play drive, only for (veteran Kicker) Tyler Bass to shank a 44-yard field goal, effectively ending the game and eliminating them from the playoffs. Buffalo possessed the football for a commanding 37:03 of game time though could only muster seven more total yards of offense than Kansas City, with Allen needing thirty-nine passes just to amass 186 yards. With that being said, he was a force with his legs, rushing for seventy-two yards and a pair of scores, while Cook accumulated eighty-two yards from scrimmage on twenty-two touches. Getting back to Allen, he is 28-27 ATS at home, 42-34 ATS as a favorite, 23-17 ATS with revenge, 25-22 ATS following back-to-back victories, and 39-31 ATS versus non-division opponents. It should be noted though, that by far and away his least-rewarding role has been that of a home favorite (23-23 ATS), which is the case this evening. In seven career meetings (including playoffs) the two-time Pro-Bowler has completed 61.7% of his throws for an average of 275.2 yards on 6.55 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns in comparison to three interceptions, while rushing for another 56.1 yards per game and four more scores. On the injury front, the newly acquired Cooper was limited throughout the week of practice with a tender wrist that caused him to miss each of the last two games and is thus listed as questionable once more. (Fellow Wideout) Keon Coleman (wrist), (young Cornerback) Kaiir Elam (shoulder), and (Sophomore Tight End) Dalton Kincaid (knee) are all in the same boat with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Bills will enjoy their bye next week, before embracing a particularly tough gauntlet beginning with a visit from the 49ers, followed by trips to the Rams and Lions.