8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Texans -7.0, Total: 41.0
Week Eleven comes to a close with a showdown in the Lone Star State, as the Houston Texans look to bounce back from a disappointing loss with this trip north to Dallas, where the injury-ravaged Cowboys are desperately searching for a lifeline. After improving by a whopping seven games last season, the Texans (6-4, 1st in AFC South) were a trendy pick to take the next step in their development and compete for a spot in Super Bowl LIX. After all, (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans and his coaching staff did a tremendous job of turning the franchise around, mostly due to the arrival of (Sophomore Quarterback) C.J. Stroud, whom the club selected second overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Ohio State product performed well beyond his years, averaging a league-best 273.9 passing yards along with twenty-three touchdowns and just five interceptions en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Of course, we all know what the playbook says when you land such a stellar young QB, informing you to take advantage of the space he affords your salary cap, surrounding him with as much talent on both sides of the football as possible. That is precisely what Ryans and (General Manager) Nick Caserio have done, adding a slew of veterans via trade and free agency, including (Wideout) Stefon Diggs, (Edge-Rusher) Danielle Hunter, (Defensive Tackle) Denico Autry, and (Tailback) Joe Mixon. So, with all that in mind, what do we make of Houston ten games into the campaign, you ask? Well, their record notwithstanding, this is a team that has certainly left us wanting more thus far. Offensively, injuries at the skill positions and the Offensive Line have stunted their growth; the Texans rank seventeenth in scoring (22.4), fifteenth in total yards (365.7), fifteenth in passing offense (246.3), and eighteenth in rushing offense (119.4), along with sixteenth on third down (38.6%) and fifteenth in the red zone (55.9%). Mixon missed three games, (third-year Receiver) Nico Collins has been sidelined for five in a row due to a strained hamstring, while Diggs was lost for the year thanks to a torn ACL suffered three weeks ago. As a result, Stroud (pictured below) has regressed a bit without so many of his weapons, logging just 5.79 net yards per attempt, which is a steep decline from last season (7.03). The issue has been pressure, which he’s been subject to far more often than he was as a rookie, with his pressure percentage increasing from 22.0% to 30.2% accruing nearly as many sacks through ten games (34) as he had in fifteen contests a year ago (38). The other problem has been the defense, which despite shipping the third-fewest yards overall (288.0) has allowed 22.6 points (19th Overall), with that disparity due in large part to their ineffectiveness within the red zone. Ryans’ troops have granted the opposition access to the end zone on a very generous 69.2% of their opportunities, which is the third-highest figure in the NFL. Sure, there have been injuries on this side of the ball too, but this malaise has been one of the most curious flaws for a team that had fashioned themselves as a contender. Last weekend’s 26-23 primetime loss at home to the NFC-leading Lions served as a microcosm of their woes. Believe it or not, the Texans managed to lose a game in which they had forced not one, not, two, not three, not four, but FIVE turnovers, all of which were interceptions of Detroit’s Jared Goff. However remarkable as it is, that wasn’t enough to get the job done, as the offense did little with the football after racing out to a 10-0 lead. Following their first two possessions, the hosts managed just 190 total yards on their final eleven possessions, with Stroud throwing a pair of picks of his own in an utterly dreadful second half in which Houston could muster only eighty-two yards. (Veteran Kicker) Ka’imi Fairbairn, who had drilled ELEVEN 50-yard field goals already this season, including a 56-yarder earlier in the affair, had an opportunity to break the deadlock from fifty-eight yards out with just under two minutes left in regulation, but sailed it wide of the target. His counterpart, Jake Bates, who had drilled a 58-yarder earlier to tie the game, stepped up and killed the game off with a 52-yard kick that split the uprights. When it was all said and done, the Texans struggled to match the Lions’ physicality throughout this one as they were outrushed 105-56 despite the visitors attempting just four more carries, while Stroud was subject to intense pressure; the 23-year-old was blitzed sixteen times, resulting in four sacks, six hurries, and thirteen pressures, parlaying to a percentage of 34.2%.
From a betting perspective, the Texans may be 6-4 straight-up thus far, but it has been a different story against the spread (4-6), parlaying to a net loss of 2.36 units. After failing to cover their first four outings on the schedule, they did manage to earn some good will with the betting public with three consecutive covers, only to take a few steps back with two losses in their last three contests. Under the leadership of Ryans, this is a team that is a middling 14-15 versus the spread since he was hired last year, including 7-7 away from NRG Stadium, 5-10 when favored by the oddsmakers, and 6-4 when coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, they are 2-7 ATS under his watch when favored against a sub-.500 opponent, while going 5-6 ATS as a favorite off a non-division affair. As a franchise, Houston is 0-2 as a road favorite on Monday Night Football. However, this may be the most interesting trend, folks: they have NEVER covered a game against an NFC East foe with a win percentage of .500 or worse (0-7-2 ATS), while winning just one of those nine matchups. Looking at this particular tilt, the Texans have beaten the Cowboys just twice in six all-time meetings, though are 2-0-1 ATS in the last three encounters, including a cover as 17-point underdogs when they last crossed paths. Indeed, that 27-23 loss saw these two teams heading in polar opposite directions, though it was nevertheless a competitive game; Houston actually led this one 23-17 heading into the fourth quarter thanks in large part to three field goals from Fairbairn, the latter two traveling over fifty yards. While there aren’t many players left from that contest, (standout Safety) Jalen Pitre had himself a game with twelve tackles and a pair of deflected passes. The public thinks that Ryans & Co will continue this trend versus the spread, with roughly 71% of all bets wagered upon the spread riding with the visitors, while a larger share of the overall money being wagered has followed suit (78%). On the injury front, (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Will Anderson, who was selected one pick after Stroud in last year’s transformative draft class, will miss his third straight game due to a lingering sprained ankle, while (young Guard) Kenyon Green was placed on injured reserve with an ailing shoulder. However, it’s not all doom and gloom in Southern Texas, as the aforementioned Collins is set to make his return from IR; Collins was leading the NFL with 567 receiving yards through the first five weeks of play, averaging a robust 17.7 yards per catch with three touchdowns. Stroud NEEDS to get his playmakers back in the passing game, with the 25-year-old returning at the right time. Looking ahead, the Texans will get an opportunity to build upon their lead in the AFC South with a pair of division affairs, returning to NRG to host the struggling Titans, before making their annual pilgrimage to Northern Florida to face the fading Jaguars, which should have them at a potential 9-4 heading into the bye week.
Meanwhile, for those of you that buy into the belief that all things in life come full circle, we’d like to present to you the Cowboys (3-6, 3rd in NFC East) and their (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy, who appears to be ending his tenure with the franchise in the same manner that he started it. Back in 2020, McCarthy (pictured below) arrived in Arlington with designs on lifting Dallas over the hump and into their first Super Bowl appearance since 1995, though a rash of injuries that utterly decimated the roster saw them finish at 6-10, which was their worst campaign since 2015 (4-12). (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Dak Prescott broke his leg five games into the schedule, missing the rest of the season, while the defense was a sieve, shipping 158.1 rushing yards per game, the most in franchise history. McCarthy would turn things around with a healthier roster and the addition of (Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn, stringing together three consecutive 12-win seasons, resulting in a pair of division titles along the way. However, the mandate in Big D has always been and continues to be postseason success, which has been nonetheless elusive for the 61-year-old, falling to the 49ers in 2021 and 2022, before last January’s embarrassing effort at home against the Packers. By all accounts, it was mildly surprising that he managed to retain his job following that debacle, meaning that the big fella entered into 2024, the final year of his contract, without a new deal, making life very uncomfortable in North Texas. As was the case four years ago, injuries to key personnel have been the most significant component of their downfall; Prescott tore his hamstring two weeks ago in a 27-21 loss to the Falcons, while (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Micah Parsons just recently returned from a sprained ankle that shelved him for five weeks, with (young Cornerback) DaRon Bland, who led the league with NINE interceptions and FIVE touchdown returns last year, having yet to even suit up thus far rehabbing from foot surgery. Oh, and if that wasn’t bad enough, Quinn is now the head coach in Washington, leading the Commanders to their best start in over thirty years. Needless to say, things have gone from bad to worse for the Cowboys, who have been an unbalanced trainwreck on both sides of the football, ranking twenty-third in points scored (19.7) and thirty-first in points allowed (28.8), including next-to-last in both rushing offense (83.6) and defense (152.1). Consider this, folks: we are midway through November, and they have yet to win at AT&T Stadium, losing each of their four opportunities thus far. If there was ever an advert for how far they’ve fallen, look no further than last weekend’s 34-6 drubbing at the hands of the Eagles, which was even more one-sided than that score would suggest. In front of their home crowd, Dallas was held to season-lows in points (6), total yards (146), and passing yards (66), with just eleven first downs and FIVE turnovers to boot. (Longtime Backup QB) Cooper Rush, who performed admirably in Prescott’s stead two years ago, completed 13-of-23 passes for a scant forty-five yards before he was replaced by Trey Lance, who could do no better with twenty-one yards and an interception. The two quarterbacks were sacked three times, pressured on eight occasions, and lost a pair of fumbles. However, the biggest story coming out of this one was (All-Pro Wideout) CeeDee Lamb missing a wide-open pass due to the effects of the sunlight shining through the windows of AT&T Stadium. Lamb, who led the NFL with 135 receptions last season, could manage just six catches on ten targets for twenty-one yards. As was the case with Prescott, he also signed a lucrative contract renewal shortly before the season began, though hasn’t come close to living up to that hefty price tag. (Longtime Owner) Jerry Jones has been nothing short of cantankerous this Fall in response to the criticism of his team, which leads us to wonder just how much longer McCarthy has before he is relieved of his duties.
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys may be a disappointing 3-6 straight-up thus far, but they have been even less-rewarding against the spread (2-7), parlaying to a net loss of 5.18 units. After covering just two of their first five games, it has gotten even bleaker for those betting on these pokes, who are currently mired within a malaise of four consecutive non-covers despite being underdogs in each outing. Under the direction of McCarthy, this is a team that is 41-39 versus the spread since he was hired four years ago, including 20-19 at AT&T Stadium, 12-16 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and 15-14 when coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, they have failed to cover six straight home games, while riding a 7-game losing skid ATS as a dog of 3.5-10.0 points, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, Dallas is 5-1 ATS as a home dog on Monday Night Football, while posting a 12-2 ledger ATS as dogs against an opponent harboring revenge (though it has been two years since they’ve last met Houston). It should also be noted that they have covered each of their last four appearances on MNF, which is one of the few positives to be taken coming into tonight’s showdown with the Texans. As we touched upon earlier, the Cowboys own a narrow 4-2 edge in the all-time series with their instate rivals, winning two of the last three meetings SU despite covering none of them. Their most recent encounter, that 27-23 affair from 2022, saw McCarthy’s troops play with their food a little too much; laying SEVENTEEN points, Dallas needed to rally back in the fourth quarter to earn the victory, outscoring Houston 10-0 in that period with (veteran Tailback) Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing touchdown with forty-one seconds left to play proving to be the difference. The home side nearly squandered 404 total yards by committing three turnovers, two of which were interceptions of Prescott, while Elliott rushed for sixty-two yards on fifteen carries, with Lamb reeling in five catches for thirty-three yards on six targets. On the injury front, Prescott is done for the year, while (veteran Defensive Lineman) DeMarcus Lawrence continues to languish on IR due to a foot injury that has shelved him since late September. (Veteran Cornerback) Trevon Diggs is listed as questionable after being limited throughout the practice week with a tender calf, while (veteran Linebacker) Nick Vigil is in the same boat with an ailing foot. Looking ahead, the Cowboys will turn their attention to the division next weekend with their annual pilgrimage to FedEx Field to battle the Commanders, before playing host to the Giants on Thanksgiving Day.