8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Steelers -3.5, Total: 36.5
Bitter rivals traveling in polar opposite directions renew acquaintances in Northern Ohio, as the surging Pittsburgh Steelers look to win their sixth consecutive game, while the struggling Cleveland Browns are searching for any sign of life in what has become a lost season. Raise your hand if you thought that the Steelers (8-2, 1st in AFC North) would be sitting atop their division eleven weeks into campaign. We seriously doubt that many had the conviction to predict such success for (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin’s troops, particularly when you consider their inconsistency at quarterback over the past few seasons, with their situation coming into 2024 once again murky at best. Indeed, Pittsburgh ranked twenty-fifth in passing yards last year (201.2), along with thirtieth in passing touchdowns (13), and twenty-first in net yards per attempt (5.8), leading Tomlin to turn over the attack. First, he hired Arthur Smith as his new offensive coordinator, before acquiring the services of a pair of wantaway signal-callers, (veteran) Russell Wilson and (young) Justin Fields. The intention was for the two to compete throughout Training Camp, but Wilson (pictured below) suffered a calf strain that shelved him for some period of time, making Fields the starter by default. However, the 25-year-old struggled through the first six games; despite his team winning four of those outings, their QB left a lot to be desired, averaging a meager 158.0 yards per game on 5.58 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to one interception. The offense as a whole during this stretch mustered 20.6 points per game on 298.3 total yards, which was clearly not enough to provide comfort for Tomlin, who opted to make the switch to Wilson after he returned to full health. Simply put, this gamble is paying huge dividends for Pittsburgh, as the 36-year-old has certainly had enough left in the tank to ignite the dormant passing attack; in four starts, the 9-time Pro-Bowler has led an offense that improved across the board, averaging 27.2 points on 362.5 total yards, including 218.0 yards through the air on 6.5 net yards per attempt. Wilson has accounted for seven total touchdowns during this stretch, with his penchant for pushing the ball downfield breathing new life into many playmakers, chief among them (third-year Wideout) Geroge Pickens, who has logged 5.5 receptions for 91.3 yards in the last four contests, hauling in a pair of touchdowns. Needless to say, there were a lot of folks that thought Wilson was seriously washed following his two-year stay in Denver, but the rumors of his demise have turned out to be premature. Even in last weekend’s crucial 18-16 victory over the Ravens, a game in which he and his teammates failed to breach the end zone once, it is difficult to imagine them besting Baltimore with his services. It was another classic clash between these bitter rivals, as the hosts controlled the game throughout, forcing a fumble of Derrick Henry on the opening possession, before getting their hands on two more takeaways later in the affair; (Sophomore Defensive Lineman) Keeanu Benton punched the ball out of Isaiah Likely’s hands just before halftime, leading to a third successful field goal from (veteran Kicker) Chris Boswell, while (Rookie Linebacker) Payton Wilson came away with a clutch interception late in the fourth quarter setting up another Boswell triple, this one from fifty yards out. The blackbirds would eventually drive downfield and find the end zone to cut the deficit to two points, but Lamar Jackson’s desperate attempt to draw level fell harmlessly to the ground. In the end, the home side benefitted greatly from those three takeaways, allowing them to possess the football for a commanding 36:22. Wilson completed 23-of-36 passes for 205 yards and an interception, while suffering four sacks and six hits, while Pickens hauled in eight of twelve targets for eighty-nine yards. Tomlin’s defense did another number on Jackson, limiting the reigning MVP to 207 yards, a touchdown and that interception on 16-of-33 passing, while containing him within the pocket for the bulk of the game, relinquishing forty-six rushing yards on four carries. He was also sacked twice and hit on six occasions, which was a huge factor in holding the Ravens to season-lows in points (16) and total yards (329).
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Steelers, who are 8-2 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 5.27 units, making them one of the most rewarding teams in the NFL. After winning and covering their first three games and then doing the exact opposite in the ensuing two contests, they are perfect in both categories in their last five outings, which includes all four that Wilson has started. Under the direction of Tomlin, this is a franchise that is 155-137-11 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2007, including 74-70 away from Western Pennsylvania, 95-103 when favored by the oddsmakers, 46-52 when harboring revenge, 89-84 following a SU win, and 59-44 against their fellow AFC North residents. Dating back to 1990, Pittsburgh is 2-3 as a road favorite on Thursday nights, while covering just one of their last ten midweek affairs against an opponent fresh off a SU defeat, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Steel Curtain owns a commanding 81-63-1 edge in the all-time series with the Browns, including 6-4 in the last ten encounters. However, it should be noted that the home team has won and covered seven of those affairs, including each of the last five. Their most recent crossing of paths also took place in Northern Ohio, a 13-10 defensive slugfest in which Tomlin’s charges could muster just 249 total yards on twelve first downs, including a scant seventy-seven net passing yards. (Former Quarterback) Kenny Pickett was sacked three times for a loss of twenty-nine yards, while suffering eleven total pressures as the Steelers’ passing attack could never find it’s rhythm against Cleveland’s top-ranked defense. Pittsburgh did rush for 172 yards on twenty-six carries, 129 of which coming from (Backup Tailback) Jaylen Warren, who only needed nine attempts to reach that total. Watt had himself another strong showing against the Browns, logging six tackles, two for loss, a sack, and QB hits, adding to his considerable ledger; in a dozen career meetings, the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year has totaled 17.5 sacks, thirty-one hits of the passer, twenty-one tackles for loss, an interception, two fumble recoveries, and a touchdown. The public is bleeding black and yellow in this one, folks, as roughly 76% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with Wilson and his teammates, with a slightly greater share of the money changing hands following suit (77%). On the injury front, Watt, (veteran Defensive End) Cameron Heyward, (leading rusher) Najee Harris, (veteran Defensive Tackle) Larry Ogunjobi, and (veteran Guard) Isaac Seumalo have all been limited throughout the short practice week due to receiving some sorely needed rest, while (veteran Edge-Rusher) Alex Highsmith is still dealing with the effects of a nagging sprained ankle that has sidelined him for last weekend’s battle with Baltimore. Looking ahead, the Steelers will continue this late gauntlet through the division, traveling to Cincinnati to face the Bengals next week before returning to Acrisure Stadium to host the Browns for a second meeting in seventeen days.
Meanwhile, you have to wonder just much longer it will be before the Browns (2-8, 4th in AFC North) opt to blow it all up and rebuild, particularly after losing seven of their last eight games. It really is debilitating for the faithful in Northern Ohio given how well this particular era started under (Head Coach) Kevin Stefanski. Back in 2020, Cleveland was the best story in the NFL, snapping a 17-year playoff drought culminating in a watershed upset of the Steelers in Pittsburgh, their first postseason victory since 1994. However, after regressing to 8-9 during the COVID-ravaged campaign of 2020, the franchise opted to push all their chips into the middle of the table, jettisoning their starting quarterback and former number one overall pick, Baker Mayfield, and selling the proverbial farm to acquire the services of (Pro-Bowler) Deshaun Watson, who was under the threat of a lengthy suspension due to a litany of ongoing sexual misconduct cases. (General Manager) Andrew Berry parted ways with THREE first-round picks and additional draft capital, while turning around and gifting Watson the first fully guaranteed contract in NFL history (5 years/$230 million). We all know the story from there, as QB could go on to miss TWENTY-SIX games due to suspension and injury, including each of the last three outings after tearing his Achilles. Needless to say, his has become arguably the worst contract in league history, likely crippling what was once such a promising team. Sure, the Browns rallied to reach the playoffs at 11-6 last year, but that has otherwise proven to be unsustainable this Fall; the offense, ravaged by injury, ranks next-to-last in points (16.2) and twenty-seventh in total yards (291.3), including twentieth in passing yards (227.7) on an NFL-worst 4.7 net yards per attempt, and twenty-ninth in rushing yards (88.5) on 4.0 yards per carry (28th Overall). Furthermore, no team has been worse at converting on third down (28.2%), while their turnover differential of -5 ranks twenty-third overall. With Watson’s time in Cleveland likely over, (veteran Quarterback) Jameis Winston has taken over but hasn’t moved the needle nearly enough to ignite the attack, completing 61.4% of his throws for 130.9 yards on 6.32 net yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. Stefanski has already ceded playcalling duties to (Offensive Coordinator) Ken Dorsey, but that hasn’t made much of a difference either, making it a matter of when, not if, ownership will pull the plug on this operation. After all, we just saw the Jets, who have been mired in a similar dumpster fire, part ways with both their head coach and general manager. When we last saw the Browns, they couldn’t put up much of a fight against the Saints, who also fired their head coach amidst a long losing streak. The 35-14 loss was a lively affair in which both teams posted over 440 total yards of offense, though only one was able to consistently breach the end zone and it wasn’t the visitors. Winston (pictured below), who returned New Orleans where he spent the previous four years of his career, led an attack that simply couldn’t finish; after turning it over on downs at midfield on their first possession of the afternoon, the visiting side nearly drew level with an 89-yard bomb from Winston to (veteran Wideout) Jerry Jeudy, but the ensuing two-point conversion failed, setting the tone for the rest of the affair. (Veteran Kicker) Dustin Hopkins missed a 51-yard field goal and a 27-yarder, while Cleveland was once again denied on fourth down, as Winston’s late heave on fourth-and-six sailed above his target. The former number one overall pick completed 30-of-46 passes for 395 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Jeudy totaled 142 yards and that aforementioned score on six catches. With seven games left to play, many of these players will be simply auditioning for next season, be it with their current franchise or another, as this team figures to look VERY different a year from now. Stefanski commented on the hot seat rumors earlier in the week, stating “That’s life in the big city. My sole focus is getting this team ready to get a win on Thursday night. That’s it.” Sounds to us like a man who has made peace with his fate, be it fair or not…
From a betting perspective, the Browns may be languishing at 2-8 straight-up, but they have been marginally more rewarding against the spread (3-7), parlaying to a net loss of 4.27 units, making them one of the least-profitable teams to bet on in the NFL. This is a team that has failed to cover back-to-back games at any point thus far, with two of their three covers coming when receiving seven or more points from the oddsmakers. Under the leadership of Stefanski, this is a franchise that is 37-41-2 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2020, including 19-19 at FirstEnergy Stadium, 20-16 as an underdog, 17-17 when coming off a SU loss, 10-16 versus their fellow AFC North neighbors, and 7-5 after shipping 35+ points. Furthermore, his troops have covered just two of their last ten games when coming off a non-division contest and getting ready to meet a division foe, which is the case tonight. Cleveland is a miserable 1-15 ATS against AFC North opposition following back-to-back SU/ATS defeats, while posting a 3-22 mark after a non-division battle and facing a division rival harboring revenge. Dating back to 1990, the Dawg Pound is 1-0 when receiving points at home on Thursday nights, while covering SEVEN of their last eight affairs when these midweek tilts are contested in Northern Ohio. Looking at this particular matchup, the Browns are at a significant disadvantage in the all-time series, but they have bested the Steelers in three of the last four meetings in Cleveland, including each of the last two. In that aforementioned 13-10 struggle from last November, Stefanski & Co led most of the way before the visitors drew level with a 28-yard field goal midway through the fourth quarter. The two sides would trade punts on each of their next two possessions, before (Rookie Quarterback0 Dorian Thompson-Robinson led the hosts forty-eight yards downfield with just 1:18 left to play, aided by a key 11-yard completion to (Tight End) David Njoku, setting up Hopkins’ 34-yard game-winning field goal. When it was all said and done, both teams were relegated below 260 total yards, but it was Cleveland that managed to make the necessary plays to get the win. Thompson-Robinson completed 14-of-43 passes for 165 yards and an interception, while Njoku was targeted fifteen times, hauling in seven passes for fifty-six yards. Defensively, (2023 Defensive Player of the Year) Myles Garrett logged a pair of sacks, three hits of Pickett, and as many pressures. In twelve career meetings with Pittsburgh, Garrett has totaled thirty-six tackles, ten for loss, nine sacks, nineteen QB hits, and three forced fumbles. On the injury front, this has been a decimated team in many respects, with thirteen different players on Injured Reserve, while (Offensive Linemen) Dawand Jones (leg) and Jedrick Wills (knee) limited throughout the abridged practice week with various maladies. Cleveland has given up FORTY-SIX sacks thus far, most of any team in the NFL, with all of these injuries playing a major role in their struggles in pass-protection. (Veteran Guard) Joel Bitonio (pectoral), (Defensive Backs) Denzel Ward (ribs) and Greg Newsome II (shoulder), (veteran Wideout) Elijah Moore (shoulder), and the aforementioned Njoku (knee) are all listed as questionable as well. Looking ahead, the Browns will hit the road to face the Broncos in Mile high next weekend, before making the short trip to Western Pennsylvania for the second leg of their annual series with the Steelers.