8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Michigan State -13.5, Total: 48.5
Not all battles in the bloated BIG 10 can be worthy of primetime, though even the fledgling members of that conference get a chance to show us what they got, as the struggling Purdue Boilermakers continue their desperate search for a win in this trip to East Lansing where the Michigan State Spartans are looking to snap a 3-game losing streak. No matter how these last two remaining games play out, the second season of (Head Coach) Ryan Walters’ tenure at Purdue (1-9, 0-7 in BIG 10) has been nothing short of a disappointing step backward. Then again, this was expected to be the case given the expansion of the league, adding four Pac-12 schools, one of which happens to be sitting atop the rankings (Oregon). With that being said, what must be the most disheartening thing for PU fans, is the downward trajectory of the program. Remember, this was an improving team under (former HC) Jeff Brohm, winning nine and eight games in back-to-back seasons. However, Brohm shocked everyone in West Lafayette when he stepped down to return to his alma mater (Louisville), leaving Purdue to search for a successor. As for Walters (pictured below), he successfully coordinated the stingiest defense in the country at Illinois, making the switch following the 2022 campaign. However, the 38-year-old has since struggled to keep steam in the proverbial engines of the Boilermakers, posting a 4-8 finish in his first year at Ross-Ade Stadium, before this Fall’s dreadful run. So, what in the name of Drew Brees has happened to Purdue, you ask? Despite returning six starters, the defense has been a sieve, shipping 38.9 points per game (131st in FBS) on 455.7 total yards, including 252.4 yards through the air and another 203.3 on the ground, parlaying to a generous 6.9 yards per play. Granted, they’ve faced a number of powerhouses this year, including Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State, but Walters is supposed to be a defensive guy, right? In those contests, his troops have relinquished 48.7 points on 492.7 total yards. One of the biggest issues for this particular unit has been a lack of takeaways, logging just FIVE through ten games, including only one against that quartet of opponents. The other issue, and quite frankly the most glaring, has been the ineptitude of the offense, which has regressed to 17.2 points (129th in FBS) on 318.6 total yards. The Boilermakers have eight starters back on this side of the ball along with (Offensive Coordinator) Graham Harrell. They were the top rushing attack in the BIG 10 a year ago (169.1), returned four starting offensive linemen, and had (Senior Quarterback) Hudson Card coming back as well. With that in mind, the passing game has been miserable, with Card completing 59.6% of his throws for 1,264 yards on 6.7 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns and five interceptions. This unit has been shut out twice in the last four games, averaging 7.5 points during this stretch. Last weekend’s 49-10 drubbing at Penn State was yet another one-sided affair; Purdue was bested in a slew of categories, including total yards (539-302), first downs (23-16), and rushing yards (234-85), failing to breach the end zone until midway through the fourth quarter when they were already trailing by thirty-two points. Card completed 11-of-20 passes for 151 yards before being eventually replaced by (Redshirt Freshman) Ryan Browne, who did lead them on that aforementioned touchdown drive. (Sophomore Tight End) Max Klare was the lone silver lining in an otherwise terrible performance, reeling in seven receptions for ninety-one yards and a 20-yard score from Browne. Klare has thirty-nine catches on the season for 566 yards and three touchdowns, logging a healthy 14.5 yards per reception.
From a betting perspective, Purdue may be circling the drain in the BIG 10 at 1-9 straight-up, but they have been marginally more rewarding against the spread (2-8), parlaying to a net loss of 6.18 units, which is one of the worst returns in the country. Apart from their opener against Indiana State in which they were favored by 35.5 points, this is a team that has been underdogs in every following contest, sans a 26-20 overtime loss against Northwestern in which they were 2.5-point favorites. Under the direction of Walters, this is a program that is 6-16 versus the spread since he was hired ahead of last season, including 3-6 away from West Lafayette, 3-5 as a road dog, 4-12 against conference opponents, and 5-11 when coming off a SU defeat. Furthermore, the Boilermakers have failed to cover each of their last five games after shipping more than 450 total yards of offense to their opponent, while also riding a 5-game losing streak ATS on Friday nights. With that being said, we have managed to find a trend that points in a more positive direction, including a 13-1 record as conference road dogs of six or more points when coming off a SU loss of 10+ points. Looking at this particular matchup, Purdue trails the all-time series with Michigan State 37-27-3, though did manage to snap an 8-game losing streak to the Spartans in their most recent encounter, a 40-29 upset at Ross-Ade Stadium. The visitors were ranked third in the country at 8-0, though were stonewalled by the hosts in the second half where the Boilermakers outscored them 18-8. In an affair in which the two sides combined for sixty-nine points and 1,052 total yards, the passing game led by (former QB) Aidan O’Connell, who threw for a staggering 536 yards and three touchdowns proved to be the difference. That was their second upset of a team ranked in the top three that Fall. The betting public may remember that one, folks, or then again it may just be the fact that they’re receiving 13.5 points at the moment, as a commanding 71% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with PU, while an even greater share of all the money changing hands (78%) has followed. On the injury front, (Sophomore Tigh End) George Burhenn has missed the last four games with an undisclosed malady and is once again listed as questionable to participate in tonight’s trip to East Lansing, while (Senior Defensive Tackle) Damarjhe Lewis and ((Senior Wideout) Jayden Dixon-Veal are in the same boat with respective ailments. Looking ahead, Purdue will close out the campaign with a trip to Bloomington to battle (No. 5) Indiana, who may or may not still be undefeated after their seismic clash with Ohio State tomorrow afternoon.
Meanwhile, his counterpart may be going through his second-year blues, but (Head Coach) Jonathan Smith is going through it in his first season at Michigan State (4-6, 2-5 in BIG 10). Indeed, Smith saw the writing on the wall and bolted from his alma mater, Oregon State, after the Pac-12 was effectively dissolved. In six years in Corvallis, the former quarterback compiled a 34-35 record (.493), highlighted by a 10-3 finish in 2022 before going 8-4 last Fall. Of course, the 45-year-old is picking up the pieces left by the previous regime, which saw (former HC) Mel Tucker fired during the season due to some things that aren’t appropriate for this column. Smith (pictured below) did his best to retain as much talent as he could while working the Transfer Portal to fill the inevitable vacancies that come with a coaching change, returning fifteen starters, ten of which on the defensive side of the football. And therein lies the problem with these Spartans, who despite being experienced and well-drilled on defense, simply haven’t been formidable enough on offense to really put the whole thing together. Through ten games, this unit has averaged a meager 19.4 points per game (120th in FBS) on 345.1 total yards, including 230.8 yards through the air and another 114.7 on the ground, parlaying to 5.5 yards per play. (Sophomore Quarterback) Aidan Chiles, who came over to East Lansing from Corvallis with his head coach, has struggled mightily to find his footing against BIG 10 defenses, completing 61.0% of his throws for 2,106 yards, ten touchdowns and a conference-worst ELEVEN interceptions. Hell, he’s tossed at least one in seven starts, including seven against conference opponents. It is awfully difficult to win games when you are operating with a turnover margin of -9, but that is where Michigan State has found themselves. When we last saw them, they ran out of gas in a 38-16 defeat at Illinois, which was their sixth loss in seven outings; this one was competitive for three quarters, folks, as the Spartans rallied back from an early 21-6 deficit to cut the lead to five points. Unfortunately, the bottom fell out for Smith & Co, as the Illini scored the final seventeen points of the affair. Despite playing a clean game with zero turnovers and only being outgained twenty-six total yards, the difference in the game came on the ground, where the hosts managed to control matters with 138 rushing yards and three touchdowns on thirty-one carries, whereas the visiting side could muster just eighty-seven yards on twenty-eight attempts. Chiles threw FORTY passes, completing twenty-three en route to 256 yards and a pair of touchdowns, the first to (Junior Tailback) Nate Carter and the second to (Sophomore Wideout) Aziah Johnson. With that being said, he and his teammates were turned away on fourth down on back-to-back possessions in the fourth quarter, the first of which saw them completely unravel after marching just outside the red zone. On a second-and-10 from Illinois’ 28-yard line, an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on (Senior Guard) Lance Newman pushed them back fifteen yards, followed by a pair of sacks of Chiles for a collective loss of nineteen more yards. Four plays later, and the Illini score a touchdown to stretch their lead to twenty-two points. Learning to win is hard, particularly in the BIG 10…
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with Michigan State, who are 4-6 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net loss of 2.36 units. After proving to be a solid bet as a dog through the first seven games (4-3 ATS, 4-1 ATS as dog), this is a team that since failed to win or cover three consecutive contests, including last weekend’s trip to Champaign. Over the course of his coaching career, Smith is 44-34-1 versus the spread, which includes his tenure with Oregon State, with a stellar 15-5 record as a home favorite, 31-27-1 against conference opposition, and 18-18 when coming off a SU loss. Furthermore, the Spartans are 2-8 ATS in their last ten games overall in East Lansing, though 6-4 ATS in their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. As we touched upon earlier, Sparty owns a 37-27-3 lead in the all-time series between these schools, though it should be noted that despite outright winning eight of the last nine meetings, they have covered just three of them (3-5-1 ATS). That was precisely the case in that upset loss in West Lafayette; MSU peaked at third in the CFP Rankings before getting shredded by the Boilermakers’ passing attack, suffering their first loss of the campaign and ending realistic chances that they had of winning a conference title. (Former All-American Tailback) Kenneth Walker rushed for 136 yards and a score on twenty-two carries, while (former QB) Payton Thorne, who now plies his trade for Auburn threw for 276 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception. Given that Michigan State has lost six of their last seven games, all of which have come in conference play, the public thinks that they are laying too many points in tonight’s affair, with approximately 29% of all wagers placed upon the spread siding with Smith & Co, while a smaller share of the money (22%) is sporting green and white. On the injury front, the Secondary will be on the thin side as (Junior Safety) Malik Spencer will miss an indefinite amount of time with what is currently being labeled as an undisclosed malady, while (Junior Cornerback) Charles Brantley missed last week’s loss to the Illini with an undisclosed ailment of his own. The two defensive backs have been key figures on that side of the ball, combining for four interceptions and nine deflected passes, with Brantley even returning one to the house. Looking ahead, the Spartans will end the campaign at home as Rutgers comes calling, which depending on tonight’s outcome could make the difference in terms of bowl eligibility, which would be a first for the program since 2021.