12:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Ohio State -10.5, Total: 52.5
One half of the BIG 10 Championship Game and very likely a pot in the College Football Playoff is on the line this afternoon in Columbus, as the (No. 5) Indiana Hoosiers look to continue their magical run, while the (No. 2) Ohio State Buckeyes have designs on taking care of unfinished business. There have been plenty of great stories in college football this Fall, but the greatest must be that of Indiana (10-0, 7-0 in BIG 10), who are off to their best start in school history in this, their first season under (Head Coach) Curt Cignetti. Consider this, folks: the Hoosiers ten wins is more than they managed to accumulate in the previous three campaigns combined, while exceeding their previous highwater mark of nine wins back in 1945! Indeed, Cignetti (pictured below) has made one hell of an impact in Bloomington, though we would forgive you for not knowing who he is. The 63-year-old was a WR Coach and Recruiting Coordinator on Nick Saban’s initial coaching staff at Alabama (2007-2010) before earning his first head coaching job at IUP (Indiana of Pennsylvania), where he would spend six years, followed by a two-year stint at Elon. However, it would be at James Madison where he would truly make a name for himself, leading the Dukes to a 52-9 record from 2019-2023, a period in which the program made the leap from the FCS to FBS level, joining the Sun Belt Conference 2022. So, how has he been so successful in the BIG 10, you ask? Well, not only did he bring over his entire coaching staff from Harrisonburg, but he also imported a number of his former players to boot, tapping into the Transfer Portal and signing the likes of (Tailbacks) Ty Son Lawton and Kaelon Black, (Tight End) Zach Horton, (Receiver) Elijah Sarratt, (Linebackers) Aidan Fisher and Jailin Fisher, (Cornerback) D’Angelo Ponds, and (Edge-Rusher) Mikail Kamara, who are all key contributors to their success. As a result, they are the second-highest scoring team in the country at 43.9 points per game on 453.2 total yards, including 276.5 through the air and another 176.7 on the ground, parlaying to a healthy 6.9 yards per play. (Ohio transfer) Kurtis Rourke has thrived within Cignetti’s system, leading the BIG 10 in yards per attempt (10.1), yards per completion (14.1), and passer rating (182.7), while completing 71.8% of his throws for 2,410 yards, twenty-one touchdowns and four interceptions. Lawton, alongside (Wake Forest transfer) Justice Ellison have each rushed for nine scores apiece, while (Sophomore Wideout) Omari Cooper Jr. has been a big play threat with 527 receiving yards on twenty-four catches, equating to a whopping 22.0 yards per reception. Defensively, they’ve been excellent too, shipping just 13.8 points (7th in FBS) on 255.5 total yards, logging seventeen takeaways for a margin of +10. Kamara has been a nightmare off the edge since making the leap to the BIG 10, leading the conference with 9.5 sacks alongside fifteen tackles for loss, while (Sophomore Defensive Back) Amare Farrell has four of their eleven interceptions. For those complaining that their strength of schedule has left a lot to be desired, their 20-15 victory over Michigan two weeks ago will likely do little to sway their detractors. Sure, the Wolverines aren’t remotely close to the team they were under the previous regime, but they nonetheless pushed the Hoosiers to the brink; Indiana led 17-3 at halftime, only to concede twelve unanswered points to the visiting side, clinging to a 2-point lead in the fourth quarter. After the two teams traded punts, Cignetti’s troops received a stellar punt return from Ke’Shawn Williams, setting up shop at their opponent’s 39-yard line, eventually resulting in a 41-yard field goal courtesy of (Kicker) Nicolas Radicic. On the ensuing possession, the visitors opened from their own 21-yard line, though could progress no further than their 33-yard marker, as Indy turned them away on downs to ice the game. When it was all said and done, the Hoosiers proved that they could win a defensive slugfest, posting just 246 total yards on fourteen first downs, including a scant forty rushing yards on twenty-eight attempts. Rourke completed 17-of-28 passes for 206 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an interception, highlighted by a 36-yard strike to Sarratt early in the second quarter. The aforementioned Fisher led the defensive effort with fourteen tackles, while (Old Dominion transfer) Terry Jones deflected two passes and forced a key fumble recovered by Kamara.
From a betting perspective, Indiana may remain unbeaten straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been perfect against the spread (8-2), nonetheless parlaying to a stellar net profit of 5.27 units making them one of the most rewarding teams in the country. After failing to cover the opener against FIU, this is a team that had covered EIGHT consecutive contests prior to that victory over Michigan, where they narrowly squeaked out the win despite being 14.5 favorites. Over the course of his head coaching career, Cignetti is an impressive 23-10 versus the spread between his tenures with the Dukes and Hoosiers, including 2-1 as a road underdog, and 17-6 against conference opponents. IU have covered eight of their past ten games away from Bloomington, including six in a row, along with four of their last five when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, this is a school that is 7-0 ATS when coming off a SU conference home victory. However, they have struggled when coming off a bye week, failing to cover each of their last six outings with rest versus an opponent coming off a SU win, which is the case this afternoon. Looking at this particular matchup, Indiana trails Ohio State by a considerable margin in the all-time series (80-9-4) and haven’t enjoyed an outright victory since 1998, but are a rewarding 9-4 ATS dating back to 2011. The last time that the Hoosiers traveled to Columbus, they were 40-point underdogs and were thus steamrolled to the tune of a season-worst 662 total yards in a 56-14 drubbing. Last Fall’s showdown in Bloomington was much closer, though featured a similar result; the hosts could muster a mere 153 total yards and ten first downs in the 23-3 loss, wasting as solid effort from a defense that largely contained the Buckeyes, shipping three field goals. (Senior Linebacker) Aaron Casey led the defensive effort with eleven tackles, including one for loss in that affair, with that particular statistic becoming his calling card; the sixth-year standout leads the BIG 10 in tackles for loss with TWENTY stops behind the line of scrimmage. As for Rourke, it is ironic that he played the first five years of his collegiate career at Ohio only to never cross paths with the Buckeyes. Despite this seismic battle taking place at the Horseshoe, the betting public seems to think that 13.5 points is just a bit too many, as approximately 75% of all money wagered upon the spread favoring Cignetti & Co, while a slightly smaller share of the overall money changing hands (70%) has followed suit. On the injury front, (Sophomore Guard) Drew Evans is out for the rest of the season with an undisclosed injury, but apart from that, these Hoosiers are a healthy team. Looking ahead, Indiana will conclude the regular season with a matchup at Memorial Stadium against (instate rival) Purdue, which pending the outcome of today’s clash, could clinch the first perfect regular season in the history of the program.
Meanwhile, Ohio State (9-1, 6-1 in BIG 10) may own a conference loss, but they remain in control of their destiny as far as the conference and the newly expanded playoff are concerned. With a win over Indiana this afternoon, they will need a victory over (bitter rival) Michigan in next weekend’s finale in order to finish now worse than second in the mighty BIG 10, which will not only punch their ticket to the conference championship game a week later, but also seal their participation in the playoff after missing out last Winter. Coming into this campaign, you could feel that (Head Coach) Ryan Day was doing everything within his power to seize the moment. After suffering three consecutive defeats to the Wolverines, the Buckeyes were primed to fill the power gap left by their northern adversaries, who suffered a mass exodus in Ann Arbor and have thus fallen off the map for now. Day tapped into the Transfer Portal harder than ever before, landing arguably the top class in the country, including the likes of (Quarterback) Will Howard, (Tailback) Quinshon Judkins, (Center) Seth McLaughlin, and (Safety) Caleb Downs from Kansas State, Ole miss, and Alabama respectively. Furthermore, he convinced a number of seniors that would likely have been selected in the NFL Draft to return to Columbus in an attempt to complete unfinished business, such as (Wideout) Emeka Egbuka, (Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson, (Linebacker) Cody Simon, and (Defensive Linemen) J.T. Tuimoloeau and Jack Sawyer, along with (Defensive Backs) Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. Oh, and if that wasn’t enough, Day also managed to convince Chip Kelly to leave his perch as head coach of UCLA to come be his offensive coordinator, reuniting them from their time together at New Hampshire in which Day played for Kelly. So, with all that in mind, what do we make of Ohio State with two games left to go, you ask? Well, they’ve been formidable on both sides of the football, averaging 37.8 points (12th in FBS) and shipping a mere 10.3 points per game, the fewest in the country, while outgaining the opposition by a sizable 200.6 total yards. Howard (pictured below) has been solid after making the transition from Manhattan, completing a career-high 72.9% of his throws for 2,484 yards on a healthy 9.7 yards per attempt, with a BIG 10-best twenty-four touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. While he may not have run as much as he did at K-State, he hasn’t had too, with Judkins and Henderson each topping 600 rushing yards and five scores, while the pass-catching triumvirate of (Sophomore) Carnell Tate, (Freshman) Jeremiah Smith and Egbuka have combined for 129 receptions, 1,934 yards, and twenty-one touchdowns. In last weekend’s venture to Wrigley Field to face Northwestern, the offense found their rhythm following a slow start; the Buckeyes recovered a fumble on the hosts’ opening drive, though punted it away on the ensuing possession, only to score on each of their next five possessions, including four consecutive touchdown drives. Judkins capped off successive possessions in the second quarter with short jaunts into the end zone, while Tate added a 25-yard score just before intermission. Howard would find the underclassman once more in the opening salvo of the second half, an 8-yarder to take a commanding 28-7 advantage. When it was all said and done, the visitors outgained the Wildcats 420-251 in total yardage, 173-50 in rushing yards, and won the takeaway battle 1-0, thanks to the efforts of the aforementioned Sawyer. Howard completed 15-of-24 passes for 247 yards and those two touchdowns to Tate, who hauled in four catches in total for fifty-two yards. Judkins and Henderson rushed for seventy-six and seventy-four yards, while Smith reeled in four receptions for 100 yards.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may be a stellar 9-1 straight-up thus far, but it has been a very different story against the spread for Brutus & Co (5-5 ATS), parlaying to a net loss of 0.45 units. Then again, such is life for powerhouses such as these, who have been favored by 23.5 or more points in all but three games this Fall. Interestingly, they are 2-1 thus far when the spread has been established below that threshold. Under the direction of Day, this is a program that is 38-33-3 versus the spread, including 24-15 when favored at Ohio Stadium, 29-19-1 against their fellow BIG 10 residents, and 34-23 when coming off a SU victory. The Buckeyes have covered six of their last ten outings in Columbus, while splitting their past ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. As we covered earlier, OSU has utterly owned this rivalry, winning TWENTY-NINE consecutive meetings between these schools, including last year’s season opener, that aforementioned 23-3 win in Bloomington. Perhaps it was a case of early season jitters or the fact that Day had lost so much talent to the NFL Draft, but his troops looked like they were simply going through the motions on the offensive side of the football, compiling 380 total yards on twenty-two first downs, though found themselves settling for field goals on three different occasions despite driving deep into Hoosiers’ territory. The aforementioned Henderson rushed for just forty-seven yards on twelve carries, while the tandem of Egbuka and Tate combined for four catches and a meager thirty-one yards. Thankfully, (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles’ troops were in midseason form, relegating the hosts to a scant 153 total yards. It should be noted that six of the past seven encounters between these programs have gone over the projected total. Their mastery over Indiana aside, the public doesn’t have a lot of confidence in the Buckeyes covering the spread, with roughly 25% of all bets placed upon the spread siding with the Scarlet and Grey, while 30% of the overall money wagered thus far has followed suit. On the injury front, there are a few questionable to be found on offense, including (Sophomore Tight End) Will Kacmarek, (Junior Wideout) Reis Stocksdale, and (Sophomore Tackle) Zen Michalski due to undisclosed maladies. That last one is something to keep an eye on, folks, since OSU is thin on that flank with (Junior Left Tackle) Josh Simmons and the aforementioned McLaughlin (Achilles) are both out for the rest of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Looking ahead, their annual renewal of acquaintances with Michigan may not carry the championship weight that it has in recent years, but it is always a significant matchup, particularly if Ohio State knocks off Indiana this afternoon, seeing as how it would book their place in the BIG 10 Title Game.