4:25 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Packers -5.5, Total: 44.0
Classic rivals renew acquaintances at one of the most historic grounds in the sport, as the San Francisco 49ers desperately search for consistency despite a fresh wave of injuries in this trip to Lambeau Field to battle the Green Bay Packers. For a team that has won ten or more games in four of the last five seasons, this current campaign has been a trying one for the 49ers (5-5, 4th in NFC West), who have yet to find their rhythm in 2024. Indeed, the reigning NFC Champions have yet to operate at full strength at really any point thus far, with injuries depriving them of key performers at a multitude of positions. Once upon a time, San Francisco’s roster was the envy of just about every team in the NFL, what with a wealth of talent and depth in a variety of areas. However, as age and finances inevitably came into play, they gradually became a top-heavier team, which was evident during a three-game losing streak during last year’s 12-5 campaign; All-Pros such as (Tailback) Christian McCaffrey, (Receiver) Deebo Samuel, and (Left Tackle) Trent Williams were all hindered by various injuries during that particular stretch. This season, the biggest absence has been that of McCaffrey (pictured below), who missed the first eight games rehabbing from lingering soreness in his calf and Achilles. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year led the league in rushing yards (1,459) and yards from scrimmage (2,023), along with total touchdowns (21) and overall touches (339), with the void left in his wake proving to be glaringly obvious. Sure, (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan is one of the sharpest offensive minds in the sport, and while he was able to draw up a successful ground game in CMC’s absence, they clearly missed the versatility of one of the greatest chess pieces in the NFL. With that being said, the offense has still been one of the league’s better units, ranking eighth in points scored (25.0) and second in total offense (398.9), with the real problem being defense, which has given up a number of leads late in games. Three of their losses, which have ironically all come against division foes, saw them carry a lead into the fourth quarter. On September 22nd, they led 24-14 against the Rams, only to be outscored 13-0 over the final ten minutes of play. Two weeks later, they held a 23-10 advantage over the Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium only to ship fourteen unanswered points in the final stanza. It was more of the same in last weekend’s 20-17 defeat at home to the Seahawks, a team that they manhandled five weeks prior. In a defensive slugfest that saw both sides relegated below 300 yards of total offense, the 49ers moved ahead midway through the fourth period via a short touchdown toss from (young Quarterback) Brock Purdy to (veteran Wideout) Jauan Jennings. It was a classic Shanahan drive consisting of fourteen plays for seventy yards, chewing up nearly nine minutes of clock along the way, but it would not be enough to kill the game off. After San Francisco turned Seattle away on a fourth down on a fourth-and-one at the hosts 37-yard line, it felt like it was over, but the Niners gave the ball right back with 2:38 left to play, which was enough time to mount the comeback; the birds traveled eighty yards in ten plays, converting a pair of third downs, concluding with a 13-yard scramble into the end zone from Geno Smith, effectively ending the affair with just twelve seconds remaining. When it was all said and done, Shanahan’s troops were held to a season-low 277 total yards, but still outrushed the visitors (131-94) allowing them to possess the ball for 33:35. A bad interception from Purdy by a defensive line deep in his own territory immediately led to a field goal for the opposition, which was otherwise the only real blemish in the 24-year-old’s ledger, completing 21-of-28 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown, along with a rushing score of his own. Nine penalties for a loss of fifty-four yards played a factor in the outcome, while the pass defense struggled against Seattle’s deadly receiving corps, conceding 221 yards, including a combined 180 yards on seventeen receptions from D.K. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As a result, San Fran is looking up at the other three teams in the NFC West for the first time in quite a while, with seven weeks to get right and make a push for the playoffs.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers may be sitting at a middling 5-5 straight-up, but they have been more mediocre against the spread thus far (4-6), parlaying to a net loss of 2.36 units. Consistency has been an elusive commodity for a team that has only won back-to-back games once this season, while failing to cover consecutive contests through the first ten games. In fact, San Francisco is 8-12 ATS over their last twenty games overall dating back to last December, which includes a winless stretch versus the spread during last Winter’s playoffs. Under the leadership of Shanahan, this is a franchise that is 70-65-2 ATS since he was hired back in 2017, including 37-28 ATS away from Santa Clara, 28-20 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 27-25 ATS when coming off a SU loss, and 45-44 ATS against non-division opposition. Furthermore, the Niners are 7-1 ATS following a division affair and facing an opponent with revenge, which is the case this evening. This of course, brings us to this particular matchup with the Packers, whom they have quite a history with. San Fran trails the all-time series 38-34-1 SU, though have taken six of the last ten meetings dating back to 2013, which includes four postseason victories. Last January’s 24-21 divisional round triumph was an entertaining affair to be sure; Shanahan’s troops struggled to slow down Green Bay in the first half while the offense sputtered in 13-7 third quarter deficit. However, the hosts woke up midway through the third period, intercepting Jordan Love twice, before McCaffrey killed off a 12-play, 69-yard drive to take the lead for good with just over a minute left to play. When it was all said and done, the difference in this rain-soaked game was mistakes, as both teams missed field goals, while the home side was flagged six times for a loss eighty-three yards. With that being said, those two picks from (veteran Linebacker) Dre Greenlaw were MASSIVE as each takeaway immediately led to 49ers points. Purdy completed 23-of-39 passes for 252 yards and a touchdown to (veteran Tight End) George Kittle, while McCaffrey amassed 128 yards from scrimmage on twenty-four touches. Getting back to Purdy, he is 0-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, which was coincidentally the last time that San Francisco found themselves receiving points, snapping a streak of THIRTY games as a favorite. The public seems to be well aware of that fact and are all over the visitors getting points in this one, as roughly 82% of all wagers placed upon the spread was wearing red, with a slightly larger share of the overall money changing hands following suit (84%). On the injury front, it has been a taxing campaign for the Niners in this regard, with ten players languishing on Injured Reserve, including starters such as Brandon Aiyuk (knee) Javon Hargrave (triceps), Jon Feliciano (knee), Talanoa Hufanga (wrist), and the aforementioned Greenlaw (Achilles). While Felciano has a shot at coming back soon, there are others who will be donning street clothes for today’s venture to Eastern Wisconsin: (2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa, who left last weekend’s loss to Seattle with a hip pointer, and the aforementioned Purdy, who has been dealing with a nagging right shoulder will be held out of action altogether. With that in mind, (journeyman backup) Brandon Allen will get his first start since 2021. Furthermore, Williams is questionable with a tender ankle, leaving the massive blindside protector questionable, while Kittle will return to the field after missing the affair with the Seahawks. Looking ahead, it doesn’t get any easier for the Niners, who will make the long trek to northeast to face the Bills in what has been a popular Super Bowl pick in recent years, before returning home to host the struggling Bears.
Meanwhile, the Packers (7-3, 3rd in NFC North) have dealt with their share of injuries to key personnel as well, leaving them in a real fight to make up ground within their division. Granted, nobody could have predicted that the NFC North would be as competitive as it has been thus far, putting a team that many felt was a dark horse pick to represent the conference in Super Bowl LIX in a precarious position. So, what in the name of Bart Starr has happened in Green Bay, you ask? Well, let’s start with (fifth-year Quarterback) Jordan Love, whom the franchise invested an NFL record $220 million ($160.3 million guaranteed) over the next four years to lead them forward into a new era. Coming off a 2023 campaign in which he caught fire down the stretch and vaulted the cheeseheads into the playoffs, this season has seen the 26-year-old regress. Keep in mind that he did suffer a strained MCL in the season opener, before tweaking his hamstring three weeks after coming back, which has certainly compromised his mobility, but some of the flaws going back to his collegiate days have bubbled to the surface. In eight games, Love (pictured below) has thrown sixteen touchdowns, but he has also tossed a league-worst ELEVEN interceptions, matching his total from the previous season. While he has been the victim of more drops than he has in the past with twenty-one thus far in comparison twenty-nine last year, his decision-making has left a lot to be desired, choosing to push the proverbial envelope with throws downfield instead of simply taking what the defense is giving him. Playing clean football hasn’t necessarily been the Packers’ MO in 2024, with (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur’s troops committing at least one turnover in all but one of their games, totaling fourteen altogether (22nd Overall), which was fine when their own defense was taking the ball away wholesale. This brings us to the other issue for Green Bay: the takeaway well is running dry. After ranking twenty-third overall in that particular statistic (18 takeaways), LaFleur hired (former Boston College HC) Jeff Hafley to coordinate the defense, which was a move that paid immediate dividends. Hafley’s unit forced a staggering SEVENTEEN turnovers in the first six games, leading to a differential of +9 during that span, logging three of them in five of those contests. Unfortunately, those game-changing plays have become harder to come by, with just two takeaways in the last four outings, leading to a margin of -4. Three of those games have come and gone without a takeaway, which when compared to their aforementioned careless nature with the football, has played a large factor in the sudden disparity between winning games outright and covering the spread (more on that in a bit). The trend continued in last weekend’s narrow 20-19 loss at the Bears, which by and large should have been a loss for the Packers. You wouldn’t know that Green Bay was coming off their bye, as the defense relinquished their second-most yards of the season (391) to a sputtering attack that had just fired their offensive coordinator. The visitors were gashed for 179 rushing yards and a pair of scores on thirty-four attempts, leaving them at a disadvantage in terms of time of possession (23:59). However, Love & Co didn’t have much trouble moving the football, encountering just five third downs on the afternoon. With that said, they couldn’t finish drives, converting only one of those third downs, were turned away on their lone attempt on fourth down, and saw a lengthy 10-play/61-yard drive spoiled by a poor throw from Love at Chicago’s 15-yard line, that was intercepted and returned twenty-three yards. With all that being said, Love exhibited his toughness by carrying his team seventy-eight yards downfield in just four plays, hitting (young Wideout) Christian Watkins for a 60-yard catch, before scrambling thirteen yards down the sideline just short of the end zone, sneaking in for the go-ahead score on the next play. The ensuing 2-point conversion would fail though, providing the hosts with a lifeline with just under three minutes left to play. The Bears moved down to the Packers’ 28-yard line, settling for a 46-yard field goal to win the game, though the kick was batted down by (Sophomore Defensive Lineman) Karl Brooks, ending the affair in stunning fashion.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be 7-3 straight-up thus far, been far less-rewarding against the spread (4-6), parlaying to a net loss of 2.36 units. When you have such a disparity between a team’s SU and ATS success, it is a sign that they are winning a lot of close games; each of these cheeseheads last three wins have failed to see them cover the respective spreads, with a cumulative margin of victory of SIX points. Under the direction of LaFleur, this is a franchise that 57-43 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2019, including 30-19 at Lambeau Field, 33-31 when favored by the oddsmakers, and 36-29 when coming off a SU victory. Furthermore, his troops have covered eight of their last nine games following a division affair when they harbor revenge against a non-division opponent, while also covering ten of their past ten outings at home when coming off a SU division win, with both trends being relevant this evening. Interestingly, Green Bay is 0-4 in their last four games after shipping 350+ total yards, which is also the case with this matchup. Looking deeper into this tilt with the 49ers, the Packers hold a narrow 38-34-1 edge in the all-time series, though have covered just three of their last ten encounters. In fact, the road team has covered each of the past four meetings, including that aforementioned 24-21 loss in last January’s divisional round of the playoffs. Riding high after their upset of the Cowboys, LaFleur’s charges controlled the bulk of this affair, leading 21-14 with five minutes left in the third period. However, after forcing a quick three-and-out, Love would be intercepted, immediately leading to a Niners’ field goal. It wouldn’t be long before Green Bay drove down into the hosts’ territory once again, though (Rookie Kicker) Anders Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal, setting up San Francisco for another score, this time a go-ahead touchdown. Now trailing with just over a minute left in regulation, Love was intercepted for a second time on an attempt down the dep middle of the gridiron, effectively ending the game altogether. It was a mixed bag for Love, who also tossed a pair of touchdowns, completing 21-of-34 passes for 194 yards, while (young Receiver) Romeo Doubs led the receiving corps with four receptions for eighty-three yards. (Former Packers Tailback) Aaron Jones was also stellar in his final run with the franchise, rushing for 108 yards on eighteen carries. On the injury front, (2-time Pro Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander appears to be trending towards missing a third consecutive game after not practicing throughout the week due to a bulky knee, though the rest of the roster looks to be relatively healthy. Looking ahead, the Packers will play host to the Dolphins on Thanksgiving night, before hitting the road for a rematch with the Lions, who handled them convincingly three weeks ago.