8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Ravens -3, Total: 50.5
Week Twelve comes to a close with a potential postseason preview that also serves as a reunion of brothers, as the Baltimore Ravens look to get back on track in this trip to the City of Angels to battle the surging Los Angeles Chargers in what is the third chapter of the Har-Bowl. Stop the presses, ladies and gentlemen, the Ravens (7-4, 2nd in AFC North) are an offensive team! After decades of being synonymous with stifling defense, this group has since flipped the script and evolved into the most prolific attack in the NFL, sitting above their contemporaries at a robust 430.1 total yards per game. Behind the dual-threat talent of (reigning MVP Quarterback) Lamar Jackson, (ageless Tailback) Derrick Henry, and a host of talented pass-catchers, this unit poses a multitude of problems for opposing defenses. A year after claiming his second MVP award, it can be argued that Jackson has been even better this season, completing 67.0% of his throws for a career-high 261.5 yards per game on a league-best 8.27 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions. Keep in mind that he tossed twenty-four scores in sixteen games last year. While he also isn’t running as much (a career-low 8.6 carries per game), the 27-year-old has still been very effective when doing so, racking up another 53.1 yards on a healthy 6.1 yards per carry and two more touchdowns. In fact, if his current trajectory stands, he will end up leading the league in yards per rush for a fourth time in six years. Add Henry, who is continues to defy father time with NFL-highs in carries (197), rushing yards (1,185), and touchdowns (13) at 30-years-old, and you have a two-headed monster in the backfield that has rarely met its match. In his seventeen years in Baltimore, (Head Coach) John Harbaugh (pictured below) has never really had an offense that has been capable of these fireworks, while relying upon that same unit to outscore opponents in order to win games. There is an argument to be made that the blackbirds have improved so dramatically offensively at the expense of their defense, which has been uncharacteristically inconsistent this season, ranking twenty-fourth in points allowed (24.6) and twenty-sixth in total defense (362.). Under (new Defensive Coordinator) Zach Orr, the run defense has been great, but the pass defense has been the worst in the NFL, shipping 284.5 yards through the air (32nd Overall) on 6.7 net yards per attempt (27th Overall) with twenty-two touchdowns (29th Overall) opposed to seven interceptions (16th Overall). Granted, part of the issue has been volume, as teams have frequently resorted to throwing the ball just to keep with Jackson & Co, while another issue has been health and depth, and inexperience. However, the departure of (former DC) Mike Macdonald has been the most glaring problem in our opinion; the Seahawks’ head coach is excellent at combining and disguising coverages, while crafting exotic blitz packages to disrupt opposing attacks. Thus far, the Ravens have been fairly vanilla in what they’ve been doing on the defensive side of things. Ironically, the team reverted to its classic identity in last weekend’s narrow 18-16 defeat at the Steelers, which was every bit the defensive struggle that the score would suggest. For the first time all season, Harbaugh’s defense didn’t allow a single touchdown, while the offense struggled throughout, posting a season-worst in total offense (329) and turnovers (3). All three turnovers were seismic, sapping any momentum that the visitors could create for themselves. The first was a fumble coming on Henry’s second carry of the opening drive, giving Pittsburgh the ball at the 42-yard line. Then, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, Justin Tucker, proceeded to miss TWO field goals (from 47 and 50 yards respectively), followed by a fumble from (Sophomore Tight End) Isaiah Likely on his own 19-yard line, leading directly to a field goal for the hosts before halftime. Lastly, with the score sitting at 15-10 midway through the fourth quarter, Jackson lobbed the ball up to (young Tailback) Justice Hill deep down the left sideline, only to be entangled with Steelers’ Linebacker, Payton Wilson, who wrestled possession away for an interception, eventually leading to another field goal for the home side. Jackson would lead Baltimore sixty-nine yards downfield to paydirt with a 16-yard strike to (Sophomore Receiver) Zay Flowers, but the ensuing 2-point conversion would be unsuccessful as Flowers lost his footing. When it was all said and done, the blackbirds had nobody but themselves to blame in this one, for not only did they turn the ball over thrice and miss a pair of field goals, but they were also flagged a dozen times for a loss of eighty yards, which has been a worrying trend this year for a team that leads the league in that category by a sizeable margin (92 penalties on the season).
From a betting perspective, the Ravens may be 7-4 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (5-5-1), parlaying to a net loss of 0.45 units. Since the opener at Arrowhead, they have been favored in every game, hitting a rough patch of late with only one cover in their last four outings, three of which coming as favorites of six or more points (1-2 ATS). Under the leadership of Harbaugh, this is a franchise that is 151-128-13 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2008, including a stellar 83-56 away from M&T Bank Stadium, 93-92-1 when favored by the oddsmakers, 89-71 against an opponent harboring revenge, 49-43 when coming off a SU loss, and 90-78-1 against non-division opposition. Furthermore, his charges have covered NINE consecutive contests following a SUATS defeat and facing an opponent above .500, EIGHT straight games on the road after a SU loss as favorite, and are 15-2-1 ATS after a division road game and about to battle a non-division foe. Dating back to 1990, Baltimore is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite on Monday Night Football. As for Jackson, he is 29-15 ATS as a road starter and 35-38-1 ATS as a favorite, and 11-9 ATS following a loss. However, keep an eye on that line, folks, for it should be noted that the reigning MVP is a commanding 16-5 SU and 18-2-1 ATS as either a favorite or dog of less than three points, including 12-0-1 ATS over the last thirteen such games. Looking at this particular matchup, the Ravens own a 9-6 SU edge in the all-time series, with four victories in their last five meetings dating back to 2015 (3-2 ATS). When they crossed paths last season, Baltimore utterly bullied Los Angeles on their home field in a 20-10 affair that featured 197 rushing yards from the visiting side with four different players logging thirty or more yards on the ground. Jackson completed 18-of-32 passes for 177 yards and a touchdown, while adding another thirty-nine yards on eleven carries, while Flowers hauled in the lone score in addition to five receptions for twenty-five yards. (Veteran Cornerback) Arthur Maulet highlighted a dominant defensive performance that came up with FOUR takeaways, including three fumbles, and a pair of stops on fourth down, logging three sacks, four hits, seven hurries, and wild fourteen pressures on Justin Herbert. Getting back to Jackson, he is 3-1 all-time versus the Bolts, completing 57.2% of his throws for an average of 185.5 yards on 5.86 net yards per attempt, five touchdowns and three interceptions, while gaining another 45.7 yards with his feet, rushing for no scores, fumbling three times and losing one. On Monday Night Football, he is 6-2 with TWENTY touchdowns and ZERO interceptions. The public seems to remember this one, folks, as approximately 64% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread, while a much larger share of the overall money changing hands has followed suit (78%). On the injury front, the blackbirds have eight players on Injured Reserve, though none are regular starters. (Defensive Backs) Eddie Jackson and the aforementioned Maulet, who picked off Harbaugh in last Fall’s primetime affair, have both been limited throughout the week of practice with various issues, though it should be noted that the former’s absence was not injury related. Looking ahead, it doesn’t get any easier for the Ravens as they return to the east coast to host the surging Eagles in a potential Super Bowl preview, before finally enjoying their bye week.
Meanwhile, one of the hardest things for a head coach to do upon getting hired is changing the culture of the team he is taking over, which brings us to Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers (7-3, 2nd in AFC West). For years, this was a team associated with underachieving, routinely proving to be lesser than the total sum of their parts. Sure, they fielded some truly talented players, but it was for various reasons that lightning bolts habitually failed to meet expectations. In fact, the term chargering was derived from their knack for finding ways to lose games, whether it was gaffes on special teams, questionable coaching decisions and clock management, or the untimeliest of untimely turnovers and penalties. With that in mind, the Spanos family opted for a substantial makeover with the hire of Harbaugh (pictured below), who has earned quite the reputation of turning around dysfunctional teams. Back in 2007 he overtook a dreadful Stanford program that had sunk to all-time lows, only to turn them back into a national power, winning eleven games for the first time in school history in 2010. From there he returned to the NFL to revive the 49ers, which he did immediately, winning eleven or more games in each of his first three years in charge, resulting in back-to-back division titles and an NFC Championship in 2012. Then in 2015, he delved back into the collegiate ranks to rescue his alma mater Michigan from irrelevance, posting an 86-25 record in nine seasons, including three straight BIG 10 titles and their first National Championship since 1997 last January. Needless to say, this guy is a coaching force of nature, which is what Los Angeles is finding out this Fall. Anyone who thought that this would be a rebuilding campaign has been disproved soundly, as the 60-year-old has disassembled and reassembled this roster into a physical, hard-nosed group that has taken on the identity of its skipper. Offensively, this was a pass-heavy team under the previous regime, but that has changed under Harbaugh and (longtime collaborator) Greg Roman; the Chargers tenth in rushing attempts (29.1) and twelfth in rushing yards (121.6), which has minimized their mistakes, having committed the second-fewest turnovers in the league thus far (5). (Former Ravens Tailback) J.K. Dobbins has found new life in the City of Angels, rushing for 726 yards and eight touchdowns, while the prolific (veteran Quarterback) Justin Herbert, has taken to this new approach, averaging a career-high 6.84 net yards per attempt, with thirteen scores and only one interception. Defensively, Harbaugh brought his defensive coordinator from Ann Arbor, Jessie Minter, along for this transition to SoCal, evolving this unit into one of the best in the NFL. A year ago, Los Angeles ranked in the bottom third in a wealth of defensive categories, only to turn around and relinquish the fewest points in the league thus far (14.5). In fact, they are the second team in history to hold their first NINE opponents to twenty or fewer points, a streak that was eventually snapped in last weekend’s epic 34-27 shootout with the Bengals. This one looked like it was over early as Harbaugh’s troops dominated the first half of the game, leading 27-6 shortly after intermission. However, Cincinnati caught fire as the hosts went cold, scoring TWENTY-ONE unanswered points to draw level early int he fourth quarter. Truth be told, this one could have ended very differently had the visitors not missed a pair of field goals in the final stanza, setting up Herbert to lead the bolts on a game-winning 84-yard drive culminating in a 29-yard touchdown run from Dobbins to seal the deal. When it was all said and done, the offense proved it could overcome a rare off-day from their defense, which shipped season-highs in points (27), total yards (452), first downs (24), and passing yards (342). Herbert completed 17-of-36 passes, but racked up 297 yards along the way, with a pair of touchdowns, while making use of his underrated mobility, with sixty-five rushing yards on five carries. Dobbins totaled fifty-six rushing yards and a pair of scores on eleven carries, while (Rookie Wideout) Ladd McConkey erupted for 123 receiving yards on six catches.
From a betting perspective, the Chargers are 7-3 straight-up and have been slightly more rewarding against the spread (7-2-1), parlaying to a net profit of 4.36 units, making them one of the most bankable teams to bet on this season. After a disappointing stretch in which they managed to cover just once in four games (1-2-1 ATS), they are currently riding a streak of four straight covers, which would be their best run of form since the latter stages of the 2022 campaign. Over the course of his coaching career in the NFL, Harbaugh is a staggering 49-29-4 versus the spread, including 36-15 ATS against non-division opponents (8-3 as an underdog). As a team, Los Angeles has failed to cover four consecutive contests as a dog of 0.5-3.0 points, including just two of their last outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers (2-7-1 ATS). Furthermore, these lightning bolts are 12-1-1 ATS as dogs of less than five points against a team coming off a SU favorite defeat, which is precisely the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 5-2 ATS a home dog on Monday Night Football, with an overall 7-2 ledger ATS as a dog versus a non-division foe. As for Herbert, he is 17-17-1 ATS at home throughout his career, 24-21 as a favorite, 20-14-1 ATS when harboring revenge, and 8-7 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU wins. The former Pro-Bowler has never beaten the Ravens in two meetings, completing 61.4% of his throws for an average of 206.0 yards on just 4.51 net yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (2), losing a fumble along the way. It was a rough day at the office for Herbert in that aforementioned 20-10 affair from last season, in which he and the offense were relegated to 279 total yards on sixteen first downs, while committing four turnovers and possessing the football for a brief 26:37 of game time. The 26-year-old was good for 217 yards, a touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble on 29-of-44 passing, while suffering three sacks, four hits, and a whopping fourteen pressures. The bigger issue though, was their utter failure in matching Baltimore’s physicality in the trenches, as they were outrushed by well over 100 hundred yards, which was a persistent issue under the previous regime. As far as MNF goes, he is 4-3 in seven career appearances, completing 64.3% of his passes for 238.7 yards on 5.82 net yards per attempt, nine scores and four turnovers. Getting back to Harbaugh, he has faced off against his brother on two occasions, losing both SU and ATS, the first being a 16-6 affair back in 2011, while the second was the most notable, a wild 34-31 extravaganza in Super Bowl XLVII a year later. On the injury front, the Chargers have nine players sitting on Injured Reserve, though there are several individuals to keep an eye on in this one, folks, including (veteran Safety) Derwin James (groin), (veteran Edge-Rusher) Joey Bosa (hip), (fellow Edge-Rusher) Kahlil Mack (groin), (Rookie Cornerback) Cam Hart (Concussion), (veteran Linebacker) Denzel Perryman (groin), and the aforementioned McConkey (shoulder), who were all limited throughout the practice week with various maladies. Looking ahead, the bolts are locked within their toughest stretch of the season, as they hit the road for the next two weeks to face the Falcons and Chiefs, before returning home for a visit from the Buccaneers.