
7:30 PM EST, ABC – Spread: Texas -6.0, Total: 48.5
For many schools, this week marks the conclusion of the regular season, which is the case with this renewal of hostilities between bitter rivals as the (No. 3) Texas Longhorns travel to Kyle Field to battle the (No. 20) Texas A&M Aggies with a spot in the SEC Title Game on the line. Once upon a time, these programs met every year on the gridiron in the Lone Star Showdown contested at the conclusion of the schedule, though tonight’s reunion comes as their first since 2011 when they both shared residence in the BIG XII. Make no mistake about it, between these two teams it is Texas (10-1, 6-1 in SEC) who has the most to lose, as the Longhorns are gunning for not only an SEC Championship in their first year within the conference, but a return to the expanded Playoff to boot. Of course, (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian & Co came up just short in the National Semifinal last January, with many playmakers opting to return to Austin in an attempt to resolve unfinished business. Coupled with yet another strong recruiting class, the ‘Horns were one of the favorites to win it all this season. Apart from an ugly 30-15 loss at home against (No. 5) Georgia, this group has been as advertised in 2024, ranking fifteenth in points scored (36.5) and third in points allowed (12.1), while outgaining their opposition by a margin of 201.9 total yards per game with a takeaway margin of +7. Since that fateful tilt with the Dawgs, UT has won four games in a row, though some of them were much harder to come by than the six that preceded it; Sarkisian’s troops barely survived the UGA hangover in their ensuing trip to upstart Vanderbilt (27-24), while eventually pulling away from another classic rival, Arkansas (20-10) in an affair that was a defensive slugfest. The common denominator was both of those contests were on the road, while Texas has looked as strong as ever against Florida (49-17) and most recently Kentucky (31-14), with each victory taking place in Austin. Last weekend’s win over the Wildcats wasn’t quite as close as that final score would suggest, folks, as the hosts were never in jeopardy of falling victim to a rally, leading by ten or more points for well over half of the game. Hell, UK’s only touchdown int he second half came on a fumble return! The Longhorns outgained the visitors 441-232 in total yardage, 29-14 in first downs, and a resounding 250-21 in the run game. (Sophomore Tailback) Tre Wisner rushed for career-high 158 yards and a touchdown on twenty-six carries, while (Junior Tailback) Jaydon Blue added ninety-six yards and a score of his own. (Junior Quarterback) Quinn Ewers completed 20-of-31 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to (Senior Tight End) Gunnar Helm in the first half. Ewers (pictured below), who really struggled in that loss to Georgia in which he was benched briefly in favor of (super recruit) Arch Manning, has gotten back on track with three straight strong performances, tossing nine touchdowns with zero interceptions during that stretch. Defensively, (Sophomore Linebacker) Anthony Hill Jr. continued to dominate, racking up eleven tackles, four for loss, a pair of sacks, and a forced fumble, while (Clemson transfer) Andrew Mukuba picked off his SEC-leading fourth pass of the campaign. Takeaways has been a major ingredient of (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit, who have logged TWENTY-FOUR of them thus far (17 interceptions!), including at least multiple turnovers in all but two games.

From a betting perspective, Texas may be 10-1 straight-up thus far, but it has been a very different story against the spread (6-5), where they have posted a net profit of just 0.45 units. Indeed, this is a team that suffers from powerhouse syndrome when it comes to the spreads that they face week in and out, with eight games featuring a line of 17+ points, owning a record of 5-3 in such contests. With that being said, they face no such dauting spread tonight, for this is just the third time that they have been favored by fewer than seven points (1-1 ATS). Under the direction of Sarkisian, this is a program that is 26-24 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2021, including 24-19 as a favorite (7-7 when favored away from Austin), 8-10 on the road, 17-15 when coming off a SU victory, and 16-18 against conference opposition. The Longhorns have covered just one of their last five outings overall and are 4-6 ATS in their last ten trips away from Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium. Furthermore, they are a dreadful 2-12 ATS in their last fourteen SEC games when favored by fewer than twenty-one points, including 1-5 already this season. Looking at this particular matchup, UT owns a commanding 69-36-4 SU edge in the all-time series between these bitter rivals, though tonight’s trip to College Station will be their first encounter in thirteen years. The most recent matchup came on Thanksgiving Day back in 2011, a lively 27-25 affair that saw Texas leave Kyle Field victorious thanks to a walk-off 40-yard field goal courtesy of Justin Tucker (which should give you an idea as to how long ago that was). The two sides combined for SIX turnovers and TWENTY penalties for 187 yards lost, though the visitors played the cleaner game (2 turnovers, 10 penalties for -70 yards). (Defensive Backs) Quandre Diggs and Kenny Vaccaro each logged an interception, while Carrington Byndom returned a pick of his own fifty-eight yards to the house to turn the tide early in the second half. The public appears to be torn in this one, folks, with roughly 50% of all wagers placed upon the spread thus far riding with the ‘Horns, while the money is telling a different story with just 36% of all the green changing hands following suit with the team in burned orange. On the injury front, (Sophomore Safety) Derek Williams Jr. is lost for the season due to an undisclosed malady, while Ewers has been nursing a tender ankle, leaving him listed as questionable for this finale. Looking ahead, a win tonight will punch Texas’ ticket to next weekend’s SEC Title Game, while a loss could be particularly disastrous; the Longhorns don’t own the tiebreaker with Georgia or A&M if they lost tonight, which would drop them to no better than third in the conference standings, though it is debatable if such a scenario would leave them out of the expanded playoff.
Meanwhile, prior to their loss at Auburn last weekend, (Head Coach) Mike Elko was staunch in his stance that Texas A&M (8-3, 5-2 in SEC) was not overlooking their opponent in lieu of tonight’s long-awaited reunion with Texas. Of course, these are young adults that we are talking about, so you have to think that they were looking ahead to a rivalry that hasn’t been contested since 2011. That was when the Aggies decided to break free from the BIG XII, a conference that they called home since 1996, though their blood feud with the Longhorns dates back to their days as members of the old Southwest Conference. These bitter rivals haven’t crossed paths since that breaking point, though as fate would have it, they renew acquaintances as members of the SEC. Thirteen years into their tenure within the Southeast Conference, it is debatable as to whether or not A&M are any better off than they were before. Revenue sharing aside, this is a program that has routinely come up short despite their lofty ambition; this is a program that hasn’t won a National Championship since 1939, while going twenty-five years without a league title. Since joining the SEC, they have gone 105-57 (.648) overall and 57-47 in conference play (.548), reaching double-digits in wins once (2012), while cracking the top five in the rankings on three occasions despite a litany of bountiful recruiting class. This Fall, it seems to be more of the same, as Elko’s troops had the inside track to booking a spot in the SEC Title Game, only to drop each of their last two league games, an ugly 44-20 thrashing at South Carolina and last weekend’s thrilling 43-31 loss on the plains that required four overtimes to crown a victor. In each contest, they fell behind early and were taken out of their element, while being forced to throw the football far more often than they would prefer to get back into things. Needless to say, quarterback has been a position of concern for a few seasons now in College Station. Texas A&M started four different QBs last season, while (Redshirt Freshman) Marcel Reed and (third-year Sophomore) Connor Weigman have gone back and forth this Fall. Weigman was supposed to be the starter this year, but injuries have prevented that, leaving Reed (pictured below) to learn on the job. It really has been no contest as to who has been the better of the two, with Reed completing a higher percentage of his throws (60.0%) for more yards (158.4), with twelve touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while proving to be a much more dynamic playmaker on the ground with 411 rushing yards and six more scores. While he has certainly had his ups and downs in SEC play, the bigger issue for the Aggies has been the defense, which despite returning nine starters, many of whom were top-tier recruits, has failed to live up their billing. In SEC play, they’ve shipped 25.8 points on 389.8 total yards, with twelve takeaways helping compensate for all those yards. However, in those losses to the Gamecocks and Tigers, they’ve been gashed for 43.5 points on 499.5 total yards, forcing just two turnovers along the way. A&M trailed 21-0 early last weekend at Jordan-Hare, though marched back with twenty-one unanswered points between the second and third quarters, as Reed found (Junior Wideout) Noah Thomas for back-to-back touchdowns, the latter of which was a 73-yard bomb. The visitors would eventually take aa 31-28 lead in the final stanza, but Auburn sent the affair to OT with a 29-yard field goal. From there, the two sides traded touchdowns, then exchanged field goals, before the home side punched in a two-point conversion to earn the upset. When it was all said and done, the combatants were separated by just five total yards, one rushing yards, and four passing yards, with each side turning the ball over once. Reed was stellar in completing 22-of-35 passes for 297 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another sixty-six yards on twenty-one carries. He was sacked four times and pressured on countless other plays, but it didn’t stop him from finding Thomas, who hauled in five receptions for 124 yards and those two scores. (Junior Tailback) Amari Daniels rushed for ninety yards and a touchdown in place of the injured Le’Veon Moss, who we’ll discuss in more detail shortly.

From a betting perspective, Texas A&M has seen an even bigger disparity between their two ledgers, posting an 8-3 mark straight-up in comparison to a miserable 3-8 against the spread, parlaying to a net loss of 5.27 units. In fact, they are tied with LSU as the least-profitable team in the SEC. This is a team that has yet to cover back-to-back games this Fall, with four losses versus the spread in their past five contests. During his coaching career, Elko is 19-17 ATS dating back to his tenure at Duke, including 3-1 ATS as a home underdog, 13-10 ATS against conference opposition, and 6-5 ATS when coming off a SU defeat. The Aggies have covered three of their last ten outings in College Station, while dropping four consecutive contests in this regard when receiving points form the oddsmakers. With that being said, A&M is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games against an opponent above .500, though it should be noted that they are mired within a 5-game losing streak ATS in the month of November. Furthermore, they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine tilts after shipping 35+ points, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, Elko & Co trail the all-time series by a significant margin, losing all but one of their last four meetings with the Longhorns, though as we covered earlier, it has been over a decade since they’ve last crossed paths on the gridiron. Back in 2011, they came up short in the most recent encounter between these bitter rivals; Texas A&M had nobody to blame but themselves in that aforementioned 27-25 loss at Kyle Field, committing FOUR turnovers and drawing the ire of the referees ten times for a loss of 117 yards. The hosts actually outgained Texas 328-237 in total yards and 22-12 in first downs, only to shoot themselves in the proverbial foot again and again. Ryan Tannehill was the starting quarterback in this one, folks, which tells you how long ago it was, with the eventual first-round pick completing 20-of-49 passes for 224 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions, one of which returned for a touchdown. As we mentioned earlier, the volume of public wagers upon the spread in tonight’s showdown in College Station is deadlocked at 50/50, but the overall money being wagered has firmly backed A&M (64%). On the injury front, (Junior Tailback) Le’Veon Moss, who leads the team with 765 rushing yards and ten touchdowns is out for the rest of the season with a knee malady, while the offensive line continues to be a work in progress as Elko shuffles the deck; (Sophomore Center) Mark Nabou has been out since early September with a lower body injury, while (Starting Guards) Armaj Reed-Adams and Chase Bisontis are each listed as questionable with respective ailments. Looking ahead, a win tonight wouldn’t automatically vault the Aggies into next weekend’s SEC Title Game, as Georgia and Tennessee currently own tiebreakers with A&M, meaning it will depend on the outcome between the Vols and Commodores earlier in the afternoon. However, all is not lost for even if a conference championship remains outside their reach, a win over the ‘Horns could put them on the fringes of the expanded playoff.