4:25 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Ravens -3.0, Total: 51.5
As the calendar transitions to December and the playoffs races come into clearer focus, a potential Super Bowl preview is on tap today from M&T Bank Stadium, as the surging Philadelphia Eagles take their act to Baltimore where the Ravens are looking to keep pace in the top-heavy AFC. Oh, what a difference a year has made for the Eagles (9-2, 1st in NFC East), who are continuing to flush out the bitter collapse that was last season, as they attack this current campaign with a ferocity comparable to their run to Super Bowl LVII two years ago. Of course, after coming up just short of hoisting the franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy, Philadelphia got off to a blistering 10-1 start last Fall, before proceeding to drop five of their final six contests and getting embarrassed in Tampa on Wild Card Weekend. As a result, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni turned over his coaching staff, particularly his two coordinators, which was a major reason why his birds fell apart down the stretch. Now calling plays in the City of Brotherly Love is the tandem of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio, who have transformed their respective sides of the football for the better. Philly ranks seventh in points scored (26.9) and third in total offense (389.0), due in large part to leaning into what they do best: pounding the rock. No team has rushed the ball more times (37.1) for more yards (193.6) and more touchdowns (22) than this group, who also ranks second in yards per carry (5.2), which is a major reason why they’ve been so effective on third down, converting 43.0% of their opportunities. Behind arguably the most imposing Offensive Line in the league, (veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts remains one of the most dangerous rushing threats at his position, gaining 456 yards and eleven touchdowns with his legs, though the biggest difference from last year has come with the addition of (former Pro-Bowl Tailback) Saquon Barkley. Simply put, poaching this guy from (bitter rival) New York has been a major feather in the cap of (longtime General Manager) Howie Roseman, as Barkley (pictured below alongside Hurts) has become a force of nature within this offense. In just eleven games, he has already rushed for a career-high 1,392 yards, leading the league in that category along with 223 carries and a staggering 6.2 yards per carry. This has become an MVP-caliber campaign for the 27-year-old, particularly after his exploits in last weekend’s dominant performance against the Rams. It wasn’t so much that the Eagles won the game 37-20, but more so how they did it, folks; Philadelphia outgained Los Angeles 481-290 in total yards, thanks in large part to a commanding edge on the ground (314-92), where Barkley racked up a career-best 255 rushing yards. In fact, his 302 yards from scrimmage was the SEVENTH-most ever recorded in a single game in NFL history. Furthermore, his rushing ledger stands as a franchise record and checks in as the league’s ninth-highest total ever. It has been twelve years since a running back has earned MVP honors (Adrian Peterson in 2012), though Barkley’s performance this season is certainly comparable to that of AP back in his day. Hell, even with ten rushing scores, think of how many this guy would have if he didn’t play with Hurts, who is one of the league’s premier red-zone rushing threats? Getting back to Sunday’s affair, credit must also go to the Eagles’ defense, which has really rounded into form under the direction of Fangio, recording five sacks and four fumbles (recovering one), and not allowing a single third down conversion on eight attempts. Roseman has done a tremendous job of making sure that the defensive front is stocked with talent, but the Secondary has seen the biggest boost after falling apart last season. A year after ranking next-to-last in passing yards allowed (252.7) and touchdown passes relinquished (35), this group has permitted just 175.4 yards through the air (3rd Overall) with a more sufferable eleven touchdowns (6th Overall). (Rookie Defensive Backs) Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have breathed new life on the back end, while the return of (versatile Safety) C.J. Gardner-Johnson after a brief stay in Detroit has been a remedy to their ills.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be 9-2 straight-up thus far, but they have been almost as rewarding against the spread (7-4) as well, parlaying to a net profit of 2.36 units. After covering just two of their first five games, these birds have made a lot of money for bettors, going on a run of five covers in six contests. Under the leadership of Sirianni, this is a team that is 31-33-3 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2021, including 12-12 away from Lincoln Financial Field, 6-8 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 18-14 when coming off a SU victory, and 17-16 versus non-division opposition. Furthermore, Philadelphia has covered each of their last four road ventures, along with their past four as a road dog of 0.5-3.0 points, which is the case this evening. However, there are a few trends working against these birds too. First, Philly is a 6-game losing skid ATS in the month of December, while posting a 1-5 ledger ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. As for Hurts, over the course of his career he is 15-19 ATS away from home, 8-11 ATS as a dog, 16-13 ATS following consecutive victories, and 22-23 ATS against all opponents outside of the NFC East. Looking at this particular matchup, these franchises have crossed paths just six times despite their close proximity to each other, with the Eagles trailing 2-3-1 in the all-time series. Interestingly, the dog has covered all but one of these meetings, including their most recent, a 30-28 defeat at home back in 2020. The hosts trailed 30-14 late in the fourth quarter, though managed to come within an opportunity to push the affair to overtime, only to be stonewalled on a two-point conversion just inside the two-minute warning. With that being said, we doubt that there is much to garner from this one, folks, for a lot has changed for Philadelphia in the last four years; most of their offensive playmakers weren’t even on the team, while Hurts, in his first season with the franchise after being selected in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, was utilized mostly on gadget plays, rushing for twenty-three yards on a pair of carries and even hauling in a reception for three yards. The betting public appears to be drinking the green kool-aid, as roughly 71% of all wagers placed upon the spread are flying with the visiting side, with an even greater share of the total volume of money being wagered (78%) following suit. On the injury front, Sirianni has five players on injured reserve, including (Defensive Linemen) Brandon Graham and Bryce Huff along with (veteran Cornerback) James Bradberry. (Fellow Cornerback) Darius Slay has yet to practice week dealing with the effects of a concussion suffered in last weekend’s romp over the Rams, while (veteran Wideout) DeVonta Smith is on the verge of missing his second consecutive contest due to a tender hamstring. Looking ahead, the schedule is certainly in Philly’s favor with only one of their final five games away from home, as the Panthers and Steelers come calling in the next two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Ravens (8-4, 2nd in AFC North) are following a similar blueprint to success this season, particularly in terms of acquiring the services of a veteran tailback who has flourished with a change of scenery. After undergoing an offensive revolution under the guidance of (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken, Baltimore has kicked things into an even higher gear with the addition of (2-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry. Believe it or not, the market for the 4-time Pro-Bowler was a lukewarm one, in part due to his age (30) and the hefty workload that he had accrued over his stellar career, leading the league in carries in four of the previous five seasons. However, (Head Coach) John Harbaugh and (General Manager) Eric DeCosta brought him in despite all of the rushing success that they had without a marquee RB, with the results, well, proving to be substantial. Henry (pictured below) narrowly trails his counterpart tonight in rushing attempts (221) and yards (1,325), while sitting atop the NFL in touchdown runs (13) and logging a career-high 6.0 yards per carry! He must have been inspired by Barkley’s performance in Los Angeles on Sunday, because he took SoFi Stadium’s other residents to task a day later, rushing for 140 yards on twenty-four carries in a 30-23 victory over the Chargers. The blackbirds actually trailed early in this one, folks, spotting the lightning bolts a 10-0 lead before grinding their way back into things, taking a 14-13 advantage into halftime on the strength of the exploits of (2-time MVP Quarterback) Lamar Jackson. First, Jackson (pictured below alongside Henry) got them on the board with a 10-yard rushing touchdown, before eventually stunning the crowd with a 40-yard DIME to (veteran Wideout) Rashod Bateman to take the lead. After intermission, the 27-year-old hit (veteran Tight-End) Mark Andrews for a short score to stretch the lead to 23-16, only for (backup Running Back) Justice Hill to rip off a 51-yarder to the house effectively ending the affair altogether. Harbaugh’s troops outgained the hosts 389-285 in total yards, including 212-83 on the ground, converting 8-of-15 third downs and each of their three attempts on fourth down. Jackson completed 16-of-22 throws for 177 yards and those two scores, despite being relatively contained on the ground (15 yards on 8 carries), that aforementioned touchdown notwithstanding. While this performance was more reminiscent of their offensive success from years past, it shouldn’t be understated how prolific this unit has been in 2024; Monken’s group rank in the top 3 in points scored (30.3), total yards (434.7), first downs (274), passing yards (254.5), passing touchdowns (27), net yards per pass (8.2), rushing yards (180.2), yards per carry (5.8), third down percentage (47.0%), and red zone touchdown percentage (78.7%). To put that into perspective, the last team to rank that high in all of those categories was the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who are commonly referred to as The Greatest Show on Turf. Jackson may have taken home his second MVP trophy last year, but he has been even better this season, posting career-bests in completion percentage (67.3%), yards per game (254.4), yards per attempt (8.9), net yards per attempt (8.24), passer rating (117.9), and QBR (75.9), while registering an interception percentage of 0.9%. Interestingly, he continues to be a lethal weapon on the run, rushing for 49.9 yards per game on 5.8 yards per attempt, though those have largely come via designed runs, with his scrambles diminishing greatly. Jackson has totaled thirty scrambles in twelve games, which is less than half of the career-high sixty-five scrambles he logged in sixteen games last season.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens may be 8-4 straight-up thus far, but it has been a different story against the spread (6-5-1), parlaying to a net profit just over the water line (0.45 units). After an early season surge in which they went unbeaten ATS for over a month (4-0-1), these birds have covered just two of their last five outings, including last weekend’s trip to the City of Angels in which they were favored by three points. Under the direction of Harbaugh, this is a team that is a stellar 152-128-13 versus the spread over the course of his seventeen years on the job, including 66-70-1 at M&T Bank Stadium, 94-92-1 when favored by the oddsmakers, 90-79-1 when coming off a SU victory, and 102-78-1 against opponents residing outside of the AFC North. Furthermore, Baltimore has covered EIGHT of their last nine contest following an appearance on Monday Night Football, though they have also failed to cover seven of their last eight outings when coming off a double-digit victory over a non-division opponent and tasked with facing an adversary fresh off a SU win of 10+ points. As for Jackson, the reigning MVP is 19-26-1 ATS over the course of his career at home, 36-38-1 ATS as a favorite, 35-30-1 ATS following a SU win, and 38-27-1 ATS against non-division opposition. It should be noted that by far and away his worst role is as a home favorite, where he is 17-26-1 ATS. However, keep an eye on the spread, folks, for it dips below three points then one of the strongest locks in the NFL comes into play; Jackson is 16-5 SU and 18-2-1 ATS as either a favorite or dog of less than three points, including 12-0-1 ATS in his last thirteen games. As we touched upon earlier, the Ravens own a slight edge in the all-time series (3-2-1 SU), winning and covering each of the last two encounters, including that aforementioned 30-28 affair from four years ago. While the final score would suggest that this one was a tightly-contested tilt, the numbers would inform otherwise as the blackbirds dominated on many fronts; the visitors possessed the ball for a commanding 36:30 of game time thanks in large part to 182 rushing yards on thirty-seven carries, though routinely drew the ire of the officials with TWELVE penalties for a loss of 132 yards. This is relevant because Baltimore has been flagged more than any other team in the NFL this season, with 101 penalties for a loss of 865 yards, which equates to an average of 72.0 yards per game. Jackson performed well in that game, completing 16-of-27 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another 108 yards and a 37-yard score on nine carries. On the injury front, Harbaugh has seven players sitting on injured reserve, though the players to keep an eye on today are (2-time All-Pro Linebacker) Roquan Smith and (veteran Edge-Rusher) Kyle Van Noy, who have both been limited throughout the week of practice due to respective hamstring soreness. Smith missed last weekend’s trip west, while Van Noy departed that game in its latter stages. Looking ahead, the Ravens are one of the last teams in the league to enjoy their bye which arrives next week, before taking a trip to the Meadowlands to battle the lowly Giants.