8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Broncos -5.5, Total: 41.5
A classic rivalry from yesteryear is reignited tonight at Mile High, as the surging Denver Broncos look to continue their playoff push at home against the Cleveland Browns, who are starving for another primetime upset. It was about this time last year that the Browns (3-8, 4th in AFC North) went on a late postseason run despite a revolving door at quarterback, winning four of the final five games to advance to the playoffs for the second time in four years. However, they were starting from a much stronger base then than they are now; Cleveland was 7-5 and very much in thick things before turning the keys over the (veteran Quarterback) Joe Flacco, whereas this season they are a good distance away from even challenging for a wild card. So, where has it all gone wrong for the Dawg Pound, you ask? Well, we may have finally seen the end of the Deshaun Watson era in Northern Ohio, folks, as the maligned and controversial veteran QB suffered a torn Achilles tendon back in late October. Of course, the franchise acquired the former Pro-Bowler while he was embroiled in a litany of legalities, paying a king’s ransom (both in draft capital and salary) for his talents. Unfortunately, he was suspended for his first eleven games back in 2022, was relegated to just six games due to various injuries in 2023 and lasted just seven games before succumbing to injury once more. The bigger problem though, is that the offense functioned much better without him, evidenced by their run with Flacco. (Head Coach) Kevin Stefanski and (General Manager) Andrew Berry were hoping that a similar turnaround would occur with the transition to another veteran passer with a high pedigree, as Jameis Winston has taken over to steer the ship for the past four games. While there isn’t enough space in this column to cover the rollercoaster that has been the former number one overall pick’s career, Winston (pictured below) has managed to lead the Browns to two wins thus far, each of coming in upsets over bitter division rivals. During this stretch, the 30-year-old has completed 63.1% of his throws for an average of 295.8 yards on 7.06 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to four interceptions. It is no coincidence that the only two occasions in which Cleveland has scored 20+ points have come with Winston as QB1, which was the case in last week’s 24-19 victory over the division-leading Steelers. In a frigid affair that featured swirling winds and heavy snowfall during the second half, Stefanski’s troops overcame three turnovers and 1-of-10 on third down to pull the upset, largely due to Winston’s characteristic aggressive approach. The former Heisman completed 18-of-27 passes for 219 yards with a pick and a lost fumble, but he was also responsible for two CRUCIAL completions to (veteran Wideout) Jerry Jeudy on their game-winning drive; the first, a 5-yarder on fourth-and-three through wind and snow kept the drive alive, before a 15-yard dart to Jeudy on third-and-six moved the ball within the red zone, where (veteran Tailback) Nick Chubb barreled into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown. Jeudy caught all six of the passes thrown his way for eighty-five yards, while Chubb scored twice despite logging a modest fifty-nine yards on twenty carries. (Reigning Defensive Player of the Year) Myles Garrett continued his personal blood feud with Pittsburgh, totaling three sacks and a forced fumble, while stopping them on a fourth-and-two in Browns’ territory early in the game. With six games remaining, it is unlikely that this team will make an improbable run to the playoffs, which leaves us to wonder just what the future has in store for these Browns? Will Stefanski and Berry return? Will they take a page out of Denver’s book and eat the rest of Watson’s contract? Rumors out of Northern Ohio suggest that the hierarchy will remain intact, while they are likely to turn to the free agency and the draft to provide more competition for Watson, should the choose to keep him for another season. Keep in mind that this has proven to be a playoff-caliber roster and Stefanski, who is a two-time AP Coach of the Year (2020 and 2023), is certainly one of the most underappreciated coaches in the league. If they can find a QB and enjoy some better health, their fortunes are likely to change….
From a betting perspective, the Browns are 3-8 straight-up thus far, but they have marginally more rewarding against the spread (4-7), parlaying to a net loss of 3.36 units. This is a team that has yet to string together back-to-back wins either SU or ATS, but it should be noted that all of their covers have come as an underdog, which is once again the case tonight (4-3 ATS). Under the leadership of Stefanski, this is a franchise that is 38-41-2 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2020, including 18-21 away from Northern Ohio, 21-17 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 23-21 when harboring revenge, 17-23 following a SU victory, and 27-25 versus non-division opposition. Furthermore, his troops have covered just two of their last thirteen games coming off a SUATS win before facing an adversary above .500. Cleveland is also 1-12 ATS as road dogs of less than six points versus an opponent off back-to-back SU wins, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, the Dawg Pound is 1-2 as a road dog on Monday Night Football, though it should be noted that the SU winner in any of these games has gone on to cover the spread as well (12-0 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, the Browns trail the all-time series with the Broncos 7-25 SU, winning just two of the last ten meetings. From a historical perspective, two of their most significant losses in franchise history came against Denver; the two sides met in the 1987 and 1988 AFC Championship Games, losing both in heartbreaking fashion thanks in large part to the exploits of (Hall of Fame QB) John Elway, who victimized the city of Cleveland with The Drive (more on that in a bit). As for Winston, the loquacious gunslinger is 2-1 all-time on Monday nights, completing 64.0% of his throws for an average of 246.7 yards on 7.01 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions, which is a line that runs counter to the rest of his career. He is also 1-1 in two career meetings with the horses, rushing for a score but throwing a pair of interceptions. Interestingly, he will be competing against his former head coach, Sean Payton, who brought him to New Orleans back in 2020 as both an insurance plan for the aging Drew Brees and as a reclamation project. Even after last week’s snowy success against the Steelers, the public is backing Jameis in this one, folks, as approximately 32% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread walking with the dawgs, while a much smaller share of the money being wagered has followed suit (11%). On the injury front, this has been one the hardest hit teams in that regard, with fourteen players on injured reserve, including the aforementioned Watson along with starters such as (Linebacker) Jeremaiah Owusu-Koramoah and (Offensive Tackle) Dawand Jones. Unfortunately, there is more to deal with than that, as (Left Tackle) Jedrick Wills will miss his second consecutive game with an ailing knee, while Garrett has been limited throughout the week of practice due to lingering hip soreness. Looking ahead, it won’t get any easier for the Browns moving forward, as they travel to Pittsburgh for a rematch with the Steelers next weekend, before returning to FirstEnergy Stadium to play host to the AFC-leading Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Sean Payton era may have gotten off to a rocky start for the Broncos (7-5, 3rd in AFC West), but the fruits of their labor has become readily apparent in his season at the helm. Indeed, Payton was one of the most sought-after head coaches back in 2023, as the 60-year-old took a year off following sixteen successful years with the Saints, whom he led to six division titles, nine postseason appearances, and a Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XLIV. While his hardline approach didn’t mesh well with the roster that he inherited, he has since ironed out the wrinkles and disposed of anyone not on board with his vision and has Denver on the cusp of snapping an 8-yaer playoff drought as a result. So, what has changed in Mile High, you ask? Well, the defense under (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph has evolved into one of the best in the NFL, while (Rookie Quarterback) Bo Nix has gotten better with each passing week. Starting with the defense, Joseph’s unit ranks second in points allowed (16.8), third in total defense (295.9, eighth against the pass (199.8), second in net yads per attempt (5.2), sixth versus the run (96.1), fourth in yards per rush (3.8), and first in red zone touchdown percentage (39.4%). Now in his fourth season, (All-Pro Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best at his position, leading the unit with three interceptions and eight deflected passes, logging a pick-6 along the way. However, the rest of this young Secondary has flourished as well, including (Cornerbacks) Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian along with (Safety) Brandon Jones, who are all under the age of twenty-seven. As for Nix (pictured below) the Oregon product was the sixth quarterback selected in last Spring’s NFL Draft, though he is currently outperforming his draft classmates. On the season, the 24-year-old has completed 64.9% of his throws for an average of 212.3 yards on 5.72 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while also making plenty plays with his feet, rushing for another 300 yards and four more scores. There was a train of thought that he initially slipped to twelfth overall due to his age, but that wealth of experience has proven to be an asset as he has quickly absorbed Payton’s playbook, which is definitely one of the denser texts in the league. Over the last three weeks we have seen a considerable leap by the Oregon product, who has averaged 265.0 yards on an efficient 71.4% passing, with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions, while stretching the field more on 7.03 net yards per attempt. This was the case in last weekend’s 29-19 victory in Las Vegas, which was their second over their bitter division rivals this year. After a slow start in which they settled for three field goals, the Broncos turned the tables in the second half with an interception of Gardener Minshew, leading to an 18-yard strike from Nix to (veteran Wideout) Courtland Sutton two plays later to take their first lead of the day. The duo would hook up once more in the fourth quarter to take a 26-16 lead, which would be enough to see off the Raiders. When it was all said and done, the difference in the affair was the two takeaways that Denver came up with, the first being that aforementioned interception of Minshew courtesy of Jones and the second a strip sack from (young Edge-Rusher) Nik Bonitto, recovered by Malcolm Roach which set up a 33-yard field goal from (veteran Kicker) Will Lutz. That’s ten points off turnovers, folks, which is typically enough to swing momentum in the NFL. Nix completed 25-of-42 passes for 273 yards and a pair of scores, while Sutton hauled in eight of ten targets for ninety-seven yards and those two touchdowns, with (Rookie Receiver) Devaughn Vele adding eighty yards of his own on six catches. The defense registered five sacks and sixteen pressures, knocking Minshew out of the game altogether with a broken collarbone.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos may be 7-5 straight-up thus far, but they have been far more rewarding against the spread (9-3), returning a net profit of 5.18 units. This is a team that is riding their second streak of three straight covers after putting together such success only one last season. For those wondering, they haven’t covered four in a row since the beginning of 2016 when they were coming off their last Super Bowl triumph. Under the direction of Payton, this is a franchise that is 15-13-1 versus the spread since he arrived in Mile High last year, including 7-7 at Empower Field, 8-5 when favored by the oddsmakers, 4-6 versus an opponent harboring revenge, 7-7 following a SU victory, and 9-9 against non-division opposition. Furthermore, his troops are 4-4 when favored versus an adversary not affiliated with the AFC West. Denver has covered six consecutive contests as a favorite, while posting an 11-1-mark ATS as favorites of more than four points against an opponent coming off a SU victory as an underdog, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, the ponies 9-16 ATS as home favorites on Monday Night Football. Diving back into this particular matchup, the Broncos own a commanding 25-7 all-time edge against the Browns, winning eight of the last ten meetings, including last year’s 29-12 affair in Mile High. The hosts were scoring touchdowns while the visitors were kicking field goals, though Joseph’s defense deserves credit for taking advantage of an opponent dealing with a QB crisis, limiting Cleveland to 269 total yards, shipping just two third down conversions, forcing three turnovers, and logging three sacks. Bonitto had 1.5 sacks and three hits of the quarterback, while the aforementioned Sutton reeled in three receptions for sixty-one yards. We hinted at the history between these franchises, born from successive wars in the AFC Championship Game; Trailing 20-13 back in 1987, John Elway orchestrated The Drive, a classic 15-play possession that began at his own 2-yard line, culminating in a touchdown pass with thirty-seven seconds left in regulation, eventually resulting in a 23-20 victory in overtime. A year later, Elway would strike once again on that same stage, leading his side to a second straight Super Bowl appearance on the strength of that 38-33 victory. Over the course of his career, Payton is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS versus the Browns, who were ironically the first team that he faced as a head coach back in 2006, guiding his Saints to a 19-14 victory in Northern Ohio. The public is all over the Broncos in this primetime affair, with roughly 68% of all wagers placed upon the spread siding with the hosts, while a larger majority of all the money being wagered has followed suit (89%). on the injury front, Denver has been fortunate to avoid any major maladies thus far, with only three players sitting on injured reserve, none of which being starters. With that being said, keep an eye on Nix, who has been dealing with some back soreness in recent weeks, though doesn’t hold any injury designation coming into tonight. Looking ahead, this is one of the last teams to enjoy their bye week, with a visit from the Colts on tap afterward, followed by a rematch with the Chargers in Los Angeles.