8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Lions -3.5, Total: 51.0
Bitter division rivals renew acquaintances in a primetime affair from the Motor City, as the surging Detroit Lions look to remain on top of the NFC as they play host to the Green Bay Packers, who are in turn gunning for their fourth consecutive victory in an attempt to keep pace in the playoff race. A trendy dark horse pick to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIX, the Packers (9-3, 3rd in NFC North) have rounded into form following their bye week, which must be sending a wave of deja vu across the populace of Eastern Wisconsin. Of course, it was around this point last year that the cheeseheads made their impromptu run to the postseason, winning six of their final eight contests to finish 9-8 and qualify as a wild card, eventually stunning the Cowboys in a 48-32 upset at AT&T Stadium before pushing the (eventual NFC Champion) 49ers to the brink of elimination a week later. Fast forward to the present and Green Bay has already matched their win total from last season, though nonetheless find themselves competing for another wild card. So, what in the name of Vince Lombardi is going on, you ask? Well, unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’d know that the NFC North has been absurdly competitive, with three of their residents owning one of the top four records in the conference. Unfortunately for (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur & Co, they reside at the back end of this pecking order, though there is plenty of time left to vault to the top of the standings; a win tonight in Detroit would draw them a game behind the reigning division champions, while a trip to Minneapolis provides an opportunity to leapfrog their other division rival. During this win streak, the offense has returned to health and kicked into high gear, averaging 29.3 points on 359.7 total yards, including 129.7 yards via the run, thanks in large part to the exploits of (veteran Tailback) Josh Jacobs. Unsurprisingly, the 2022 Rushing Champion has proven to be a major signing by a team that generally isn’t very active in free agency, churning out 987 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry and eight touchdowns, which are all significant improvements over the previous campaign. Jacobs (pictured below) has been on something of a tear for about six weeks now, amassing 118.0 yards from scrimmage with seven touchdowns over the last five games. This renewed rushing threat has in turn opened up the passing game for (young Quarterback) Jordan Love, who appears to have gotten over the early season injury bug that plagued him through the first two months of the campaign. The 26-yaer-old is only attempting 22.7 passes per game during this stretch, but he’s getting chunks of yardage along the way, averaging a whopping 10.14 net yards per attempt, with five touchdowns opposed to one interception. This was the case in last Thursday’s primetime beatdown of the Dolphins, a 30-17 affair that wasn’t nearly as close as that final score would suggests. The Packers did most of their damage in the first half, leading 27-3 until late in the third quarter when the visitors made a bit of a run. Love completed 21-of-28 throws for 274 yards and a pair of touchdowns, both of which were hauled in by (young Wideout) Jayden Reed, parlaying to a healthy 9.78 net yards per pass attempt. Jacobs only rushed for forty-three yards on nineteen carries, but he played a much larger role in the passing game with four receptions for seventy-four yards, while (Sophomore Tight End) Tucker Kraft reeled in six catches for seventy-eight yards. Defensively, Jeff Hafley’s unit continued to impress in his first season as Defensive Coordinator, pouncing on Miami, who once again looked shellshocked in cold weather; the cheeseheads relegated the Fins to thirty-nine rushing yards on fourteen carries and 4-of-14 on third down, forcing and recovering a fumble, while sacking Tua Tagovailoa FIVE times and pressuring him on nine occasions. Takeaways have been a major component to their defensive turnaround in 2024, with twenty-three turnovers forced through twelve games, which ranks fourth overall and is five more than they produced a year ago.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be 9-3 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (6-6), parlaying to a net loss of 0.55 units. This is a team that has strung together back-to-back covers on three occasions this Fall, though have also suffered through a streak of four consecutive non-covers as well. Under the leadership of LaFleur, this is a franchise that is 59-43 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2019, including 27-22 away from Lambeau Field, 24-12 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 5-6 with rest, 22-12 when harboring revenge, 39-29 when coming off a SU victory, and 19-14 against their fellow NFC north residents. Furthermore, his troops have covered eight of their last nine games as an underdog coming off a double-digit SU win and are 10-3 ATS away versus an opponent off consecutive SU victories, with both trends being relevant tonight. Against the rest of their division, Green Bay has covered eleven of their past thirteen such matchups against an opponent who is riding a 2-game win streak, though it should be noted that have failed to cover SEVEN such outings in a row as dogs following a double-digit ATS win. Dating back to 1990, the cheeseheads 3-4 as a road dog on Thursday nights. As for Love, he is 6-8 ATS as a road starter, 8-7 ATS as a dog, 5-2 ATS with revenge, 8-6 ATS after a SU win, and 3-5 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU victories. Looking at this particular affair, the Packers lead the all-time series 106-77-7 SU, though they have seen a rather dramatic shift in this rivalry, losing five of the last six meetings SU. Interestingly, the road team has won and covered each of the last four encounters, including last month’s 24-14 defeat at Lambeau. In windy and rainy conditions, LaFleur & Co were beaten fairly soundly despite outgaining the visitors 411-261 in total yardage, though the bulk of those yards came in the second half after they fell behind 24-3. This one was competitive up until the point where Love was intercepted by (Lions’ Safety) Kerby Joseph, who returned the ball to the house just before halftime. Love completed 23-of-39 passes for 273 yards and that pick-6, while also fumbling the ball on three separate occasions, though was fortunate not to lose possession. Jacobs rushed for ninety-five yards on just thirteen carries, while Reed hauled in five receptions on six targets for 113 yards. During his brief career, Love is 2-3 against Detroit (1-2 as the starter), completing 62.9% of his throws for an average of 184.2 yards on 7.01 net yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (5), rushing for a score to boot. He is also 2-1 in these midweek contests, one of which was a 29-22 stunner at Ford Field on Thanksgiving of 2023, where he torched the hosts for 268 yards and three touchdowns. The public is currently backing the opposite side in terms of wagers on the spread, with 43% in favor of the Packers, while the money has been more favorable with roughly 64% of all the green backing the cheeseheads. On the injury front, (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander has missed two games due to a lingering knee malady and is thus listed as questionable to participate in this seismic division battle royale, while (young Receiver) Romeo Doubs is in the same boat after missing last week’s win over the Dolphins due to the effects of a concussion. Furthermore, (veteran Linebacker) Isaiah McDuffie is also questionable with a tender ankle. Looking ahead, Green Bay will remain on the road as they travel to the pacific northwest to battle Seattle in a tilt that looks like it will be key for postseason positioning, followed by a return to Lambeau to host New Orleans.
Meanwhile, for those of us that believe in natural progression, we’d like to examine the Lions (11-1, 1st in NFC North), who share the best record in the NFL. Four years ago, this was a franchise undergoing yet another makeover following an ugly 14-31-1 stretch, leading ownership to hire the tandem of (Head Coach) Dan Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes. While they certainly struggled during the early stages of this rebuild, winning just four of their first twenty-four games, the tide turned midway through the 2022 campaign with eight wins in their final ten games, leading to their first division crown since 1993 and their first NFC Title Game appearance since 1991. In fact, Detroit is a commanding 33-9 in their last forty-two contests (including postseason), as Campbell and Holmes have successfully crafted the blueprint for a successful rebuild. So, how in the name of Billy Sims have they turned this perennial doormat around, you ask? Well, this franchise has done a lot of things well over the last four years, including cultivating talent throughout multiple NFL Drafts, hitting on veteran acquisitions via trade and free agency, and developing their coaching staff to the point that every team looking for a head coach wants to interview members of their staff. Let’s start with the draft, shall we? Dating back to 2021, Holmes and Campbell have selected ELEVEN impact starters, including the likes of (Offensive Tackle) Penei Sewell, (Wideouts) Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, (Defensive Lineman) Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeil, (Defensive Backs) Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch, (Tight End) Sam LaPorta, (Linebackers) Jack Campbell and Malcolm Rodriguez, and (Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs. Within three years, five of those players have already been selected to a Pro-Bowl, with more expected to join that number in a month’s time. And then there are the veteran additions. Remember when the Lions packaged (longtime Quarterback) Matthew Stafford in a blockbuster deal for (fellow #1 pick) Jared Goff and a pair of first-round picks? After falling out of favor in Los Angeles, Goff has become a borderline All-Pro in the Motor City, posting eighty-one touchdowns in comparison to twenty-eight interceptions since 2022, while those extra picks left over from the trade have turned into some of the studs we listed earlier. (Former Bears Tailback) David Montgomery has been another key acquisition, teaming alongside Gibbs (pictured together below) to provide Detroit with arguably the most formidable rushing attack in the league. Thunder and lightning, smash and dash, or in their case, Sonic and Nuckles, this dynamic duo spearheaded a ground game that ranked fifth in yards (135.9) and first in touchdowns (27) last year, while sitting fourth (154.4) and third (21) in those respective categories this Fall. Lastly, there is the coaching staff, which has become the envy of the league. It was considered a major coupe that Campbell managed to retain the services of both his coordinators, with (OC) Ben Johnson and (DC) Aaron Glenn in serious demand during last January’s hiring cycle. Both assistants have done a tremendous job on their respective sides of the football and will thus in all likelihood be leading their own teams come the end of February if not sooner. When we last saw the Lions, they marched on to their tenth consecutive victory, dispatching the Bears in a 23-20 affair on Thanksgiving Day which remarkably snapped an 8-game losing streak on that particular holiday. The hosts dominated this contest for the first three quarters of action, leading 23-7 until the visitors cut the deficit to ten points early in the final stanza. Chicago added another touchdown late in the period and were threatening to draw level in the game’s waning moments, though fumbled all that away thanks to some truly bizarre clock management, running out of time before being able to set up a long field goal attempt. The final score won’t reveal how lopsided this one really was, folks, as the home side held significant advantages in several categories, including total yards (405-301), first downs (25-17), rushing yards (194-78), and time of possession (35:14). However, finishing drives became an issue in this one, as Campbell’s troops settled for three field goals despite driving deep into Bears’ territory, while a missed 45-yarder from (young Kicker) Jake Bates and a lost fumble from Gibbs at Chicago’s 19-yard line breathed life into the visiting side. Goff completed 21-of-34 passes for 221 yards and two touchdowns, both of which went to LaPorta, while Gibbs and Montgomery each surpassed 80+ rushing yards. Glenn’s defense made life miserable for (2024 number one overall pick) Caleb Williams, sacking him five times, hitting him on four occasions, and totaling nine pressures along the way.
From a betting perspective, the Lions are 11-1 straight-up thus far, but are also 9-3 against the spread, making them the most profitable team in the 5.18 units. At one point, this is a team that won and covered SIX consecutive contests, though are 2-2 ATS over their last four games. Under the direction of Campbell, this is a franchise that is a stellar 46-19-1 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2022, including 23-9 at Ford Field, 22-10 when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-1 when enjoying rest, 7-7 when harboring revenge, 24-11 following a SU win, and 15-6 against the rest of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered EIGHT straight games versus division opponents above .500. As for their ledger against the North, Detroit is 11-3 ATS when such opposition is coming off a home game, along with 12-2 versus division opponents coming off a non-division matchup. In fact, these felines have feasted on their northern neighbors of late, owning an 18-6 record ATS in these affairs over their last twenty-four such games, including 9-3 at home. Believe it or not, the Lions have NEVER been a home favorite on Thursday Night Football (their annual Thanksgiving games are typically during the day). As for Goff, the veteran signal-caller is 38-27 ATS at home, 51-34 ATS as a favorite, 22-23 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU wins, and 29-17 ATS versus division opposition. He is 6-2 SU in his career against Green Bay, completing 66.2% of his throws for an average 228.4 yards on 6.83 net yards per attempt, thirteen touchdowns and three interceptions, leading his team to victory in three of the last four encounters. Interestingly, each of those successes have come in Lambeau Field, including that aforementioned 24-14 triumph from early November. Given his reputation for struggling outdoors in inclement weather, Goff was set up to fail in this one, though nonetheless flipped the script with a convincing performance. After the hosts got on the board first with a field goal, the Lions ran off TWENTY-FOUR unanswered points between the second and third quarters, following their usual blueprint to victory; Campbell’s charges muscled their way to 124 rushing yards on thirty-two carries, while Goff calmly completed 18-of-22 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown, which went to St. Brown. Despite converting just 4-of-12 third downs, the visitors did succeed on both of their two attempts on fourth down, while playing largely clean football, with zero turnovers and one sack conceded. As we touched upon earlier, Joseph turned this one into a rout with a 27-yard interception return of Love just before halftime, extending the lead to fourteen points heading into intermission. The betting public appears to be remembering this matchup, folks, as approximately 57% of all wagers upon the spread are siding with Detroit, with a slightly smaller share of the money following suit (53%). On the injury front, the bodies are mounting higher for these cats, particularly on the defensive side of the ball; as if losing Hutchinson wasn’t problematic enough, Campbell now has TWELVE defenders on injured reserve, including (Linebackers) Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez, along with a total of EIGHT defensive linemen. Furthermore, (veteran Cornerback) Carlton Davis is out of action with a bulky knee, while (veteran Left Tackle) Taylor Decker will miss his second straight game with a knee malady of his own. Looking ahead, the schedule doesn’t let up as the surging Bills will pay a visit to Ford Field next weekend, before Detroit makes their annual pilgrimage to Soldier Field a week later to ace the Bears.