
8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Boise State -4.0, Total: 58.5
Let’s run it back as conference rivals meet in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game for a second year in a row, as the (No. 11) Boise State Broncos can punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff with a victory tonight over the (No. 20) UNLV Rebels, who are in turn gunning for a rare league title. Even though the playoff is well beyond their grasp, UNLV (10-2, 6-1 in MWC) has plenty to play for tonight in Boise, as a second-ever conference championship (their first since joining the MWC in 1996) would be a major feather in the cap of (Head Coach) Barry Odom, who continues to rewrite the narrative in Sin City. Indeed, Las Vegas is a city of second chances, with the 48-year-old making the most of his as a head coach. After a mediocre run at Missouri (2016-2019), Odom is taking the Rebels to heights not seen since the mid-1980s; Nevada-Las Vegas is 19-7 under his watch, signaling a major shift for a program that had managed to post a winning record just twice since the turn of the century. Indeed, a win tonight or in the following bowl game would give the school eleven victories, matching the record set back in 1984 when they were headlined by some guy named Randall Cunningham. However, their success this season hasn’t been without adversity. UNLV lost its starting quarterback after just three games when Matthew Sluka opted to hit the transfer portal once again due to alleged disagreements in compensation following his transfer from Holy Cross. For most teams, losing their starter would be a major setback, but that hadn’t been the case for the Rebels, who have turned that controversy into motivation, winning seven of their last nine contests, including each of the last four. (Fellow transfer) Hajj-Malik Williams been a consistent playmaker within (Offensive Coordinator) Brennan Marion’s system, racking up 2,503 total yards and twenty-six touchdowns, including 768 yards and nine scores on the ground. (Michigan State transfer) Ricky White hasn’t been bothered by the QB change either, following up his MWC-best 1,483 receiving yards with 1,020 yards and elven touchdowns on seventy-five receptions. White (pictured below alongside Williams) has also been a special teams demon, not necessarily as a return man, but as blocker of kicks, deflecting THREE punts/field goals this Fall. Another factor in UNLV’s success has been their knack for getting their hands on the football, defensively that is. (Defensive Coordinator) Mike Scherer, who played for Odom at Mizzou and coached under him at Arkansas, has overseen a unit littered with ballhawks, forcing TWENTY-TWO turnovers this season, including SEVENTEEN interceptions. (Senior Safety) Jalen Catalon and (Sophomore Linebacker) Jackson Woodard have combined for a dozen takeaways, with the former logging a conference-high five interceptions, including a pick-6, while the latter has totaled six turnovers, two of which are recovered fumbles. Anytime a team enjoys a turnover differential of +14, they’re sure to win plenty of games, which has been the case for Odom’s charges, who are a perfect 7-0 when forcing multiple turnovers and win the takeaway battle. This was the case in last weekend’s 38-14 finale against instate rival, Nevada, whom they outgained 519-359 in total yardage. This one was never close, folks, as the hosts never trailed, leading by as many as thirty-one points before the Wolfpack added a consolation touchdown inside of the two-minute warning. Williams threw for 168 yards and ran for another 104, scoring three times in total, while (Sophomore Tailback) Jai’Den Thomas totaled 135 rushing yards for a second straight game, with White hauling in five catches for fifty-five yards and a 17-yard touchdown early int he fourth period. Defensively, the Rebels relegated the visitors to sixty-seven rushing yards on twenty-eight attempts (2.4 y/c), forcing a pair of turnovers, one of which was a 13-yard fumble return to the house from Woodard. Six different players logged a sack, with ten total tackles for loss, as Scherer’s group brought the heat throughout the affair.

From a betting perspective, UNLV may be 10-2 straight-up this season, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of just 1.36 units. This was a team that started the campaign like a house on fire, winning and covering their first four games, only to go through a barren stretch of only one cover in sox contests. With that being said, they have appeared to have rounded back into form, closing out the regular season with back-to-back covers for the first time since late September. Under the leadership of Odom, this is a program that is a stellar 17-6 versus the spread since he arrived last season, including 10-2 away from Sin City and a perfect 5-0 when receiving points from the oddsmakers in those contests. Furthermore, his troops are 7-3 ATS as underdogs, 6-2 ATS when harboring revenge, 13-5 ATS, when coming off a SU victory, and 9-7 against MWC opposition. The Rebels are also 12-1 ATS following a double-digit cover, which is the case tonight. looking at this particular matchup, Nevada-Las Vegas has NEVER beaten Boise State in seven meetings on the gridiron, including last December’s Mountain West Title Game, a 44-20 blowout at Allegiant Stadium. The hosts were manhandled in this one, folks, as they were outgained 527-298 in total yards, including 301-81 in rushing yards. Odon’s charges also committed three turnovers, two of which were interceptions thrown by (former Quarterback) Jordan Maiava, who has since transferred to USC. When they crossed paths back in late October, it was a much closer contest despite the outcome remaining the same, as UNLV once again fell at home (29-24). The Rebels led 10-3 after one quarter only to concede seventeen unanswered points in the second period, taking the back the lead briefly int he fourth frame, only to give it right back. Statistically, this one was much closer than its predecessor (394-367 in total yards), particularly on the ground (188-185), but the difference proved to be turnovers, as Williams’ interception late in the second quarter allowed the Broncos to add another touchdown just before halftime to stretch the deficit to ten points. Apart from that lone mistake, Williams was impressive with 179 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 12-of-21 throws, while rushing for another 105 yards and one more score on fifteen carries. The public appears to be keenly aware of the recent history between these schools, as roughly 26% of all wagers placed upon the spread are taking the points, while an even smaller share of the total volume of money is following suit (22%). On the injury front, UNLV is largely healthy with no major absences to report. Looking ahead, the Rebels are bowl eligible for the second time in as many years under Odom, marking the first time in the history of their program that they can say that, with their postseason destination to be determined after the weekend.
Meanwhile, with the college football playoff expanding to twelve teams, the potential for teams residing outside of the power-four conferences has increased exponentially, as Boise State (11-1, 7-0 in MWC) stands one away from crashing the party. With that being said, this is a team that wasn’t expected to be in this position this season; keep in mind that (Head Coach) Spencer Danielson was only handed the head job after taking over with four games left last Fall, while (USC transfer) Malachi Nelson has only featured in three games thus far. So, what has been the recipe for success in Boise, you ask? Well, potatoes aside, there have been two factors to their success. First, Danielson has all eleven starters back on the defensive side of the football, leading to an experienced unit that has held nine of their twelve opponents below 375 total yards, including (No. 1) Oregon, whom they pushed to the limit in a thrilling 37-34 affair back in early September. They may not take away the ball as often as the Rebels do, but they sure have wreaked havoc in opposing backfields, totaling ninety-eight tackles for loss, forty-five sacks, and a dozen forced fumbles. Four different players have posted 5.5+ sacks, including (Edge-Rushers) Jayden Virgin and Ahmed Hassanein, who have combined for 17.5 sacks and twenty-seven tackles for loss. With all due respect to Danielson’s defense, the bigger factor in their success thus far has been the exploits of (Junior Tailback) Ashton Jeanty, who could very well become the first player at his position to take home the Heisman Memorial Trophy since 2015 (Derrick Henry). The reigning MWC Offensive Player of the Year has added volume to his production, with a whopping 2,288 rushing yards and TWENTY-EIGHT touchdowns on an industrious 312 carries, with all three of those categories leading the FBS. It’s clear that carrying the ball ninety-two more times hasn’t worn out the Jacksonville native, who has gone from netting 6.1 yards per carry a year ago to a more robust 7.3 yards per attempt this Fall. Consistency has been Jeanty’s (pictured below) calling card, as he has rushed for no fewer than 127 yards in any game this season, including an eye-opening 192 yards and three touchdowns in that near upset of the Ducks, who have held ten other teams below that total. Basically, everyone knows that this guy is going to get the football, though nobody has been able to slow him down. This continued to be the case in Boise State’s 34-18 finale against Oregon State last weekend, a contest in which they never trailed, leading by as many as seventeen points. (Sophomore Quarterback) Maddux Madsen, who surprisingly beat out the heralded Nelson for the starting job, was throwing darts early, finding (Junior Receiver) Austin Bolt for the opening touchdown, before hitting (Junior Wideout) Lattrell Caples for another score just before halftime. He would also put the finishing touches on this one with a short rush into the end zone late in the fourth quarter, running his tab to 195 passing yards on 17-of-33 attempts and thirty-seven rushing yards on eight carries. As for Jeanty, he toted the rock a career-high thirty-seven times for 226 yards and a touchdown, accounting for nearly half of the Broncos’ total offense (48.6%).

From a betting perspective, Boise State finished the regular season at 11-1 straight-up, but they have been eve less-rewarding against the spread (6-5-1), parlaying to a scant net profit of 0.45 units. This is a team that went five consecutive contests unbeaten ATS (4-0-1), though has cooled off considerably of late, with just one cover in their final four outings. Granted, this came after the oddsmakers wised up to their success, with all four of those tilts featuring spreads of fourteen or more points, with the only one covered come at that low-water mark. Under the direction of Danielson, this is a program that is 9-6-1 versus the spread since he took over towards the end of last season, including 4-3 at Albertsons Stadium, 8-5-1 when favored by the oddsmakers, 7-2-1 against MWC opposition, and 9-4-1 when coming off a SU victory. Furthermore, the Broncos have covered five straight outings as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and four in a row versus opponents above .500, though it should be noted that they are 1-6 ATS in their past seven contests played in the month of December, with all three of those trends being relevant tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, we already covered BSU’s dominance over UNLV in the all-time series, though they have performed well against the spread in these affairs as well, covering four of the last five encounters, including each of the two that we referenced earlier. Last year’s Mountain West Title Game saw Danielson’s troops cover easily as 2-point favorites, never trailing in that aforementioned 44-20 triumph. That 29-24 conflict from October 25th was much closer, but still saw the horses pay off narrowly as favorites of four points. Jeanty & Co got off to a slow start, but eventually found their rhythm in the second quarter, (Junior Kicker) Jonah Dalmas drilled his second field goal of the night, followed by a 7-yard dash into the end zone courtesy of Madsen, who struck once again following a crucial interception before halftime, hitting (Junior Tight End) Matt Lauter for a short touchdown toss. Despite briefly relinquishing the lead by the end of the third quarter, Jeanty put his team on his back and grinded his way to 128 rushing yards and the go-ahead touchdown on the ensuing possession. When it was all said and done, (Junior Linebacker) Andrew Simpson’s pick of Williams was a momentum-swinger if there ever was one, allowing the Broncos to extend their lead to ten points at intermission. In two career meetings with the Rebels, Jeanty has feasted with 281 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 5.2 carries, including 153 yards (7.1 y/c) in last year’s conference championship game. On the injury front, (Senior Safety) Alexander Teubner is listed as questionable after missing the last three games with an undisclosed malady. The sixth-year senior has posted forty-nine tackles, including four for loss and a sack, along with one interception and a pair of forced fumbles this season. Looking ahead, a victory tonight will send Boise State to the expanded playoff, which will mark their first participation in the tournament since its inception in 2014 and only the second team from the Group of Five conferences to do so.