8:00 PM EST, ABC – Spread: SMU -2.5, Total: 55.5
The pressure-point for the expanded College Football Playoff can be found tonight in Charlotte, where the (No. 8) SMU Mustangs meet the (No. 17) Clemson Tigers in the ACC Championship Game with a ticket to the 12-team tournament to be punched. Of course, Clemson (9-3, 7-1 in ACC) is NO stranger to the Playoff, having participated in the event six years in a row between 2015 and 2020, winning a pair of National Championships along the way (2016 and 2018). Indeed, (longtime Head Coach) Dabo Swinney has done a remarkable job of building this program into a powerhouse. After all, the Tigers have won a whopping 160 games over the past fourteen seasons, including a dozen 10-win campaigns, which is second only to Swinney’s alma mater (Alabama). However, the last few years have proven difficult for the 55-year-old to meet that lofty standard; replacing longtime coordinators, Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, proved to be more difficult than many thought, while Swinney’s dogged resistance to the Transfer Portal ran counter to the rest of the country. Prior to this Fall, this is a team that lost thirteen players to the portal and signed zero, having added just three transfers since 2019. However, Clemson is nonetheless one of the most experienced groups in the FBS, with fourteen returning starters and a total of fifty-seven lettermen. It has been that experience that has seen them reach this point, rallying back after getting thumped in their season opener, 34-3 loss to (No. 5) Georgia. These cats responded with nine wins in their next ten games, before coming up short in their annual rivalry with South Carolina in the finale (17-14). That affair aside, the biggest leap has come on the offensive side of football, where nine returning starters have propelled this unit back to their lofty standing; the Tigers have averaged 35.7 points (15th in FBS) on a robust 465.7 total yards, including 275.1 yards through the air and another 190.6 yards on the ground. Their improvement has paralleled the growth of (Junior Quarterback) Cade Klubnik, who is getting much more for his money in 2024 than he did last Fall. In 2023, Klubnik (pictured below) led the ACC in passes thrown (454) and completed (290), though logged just 6.3 yards per attempt and 9.8 yards per completion, with nineteen touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions. This season, he has seen those two statistics inflate to 7.6 and 11.8 respectively, along with twenty-five touchdowns in comparison to just five interceptions. Furthermore, he’s running the ball far more effectively than he has in the past, churning out another 437 yards on the ground with seven more scores, netting 3.3 more yards per carry than he did a year ago. Coupled with (Senior Tailback) Phil Mafah, who leads the team with 1,078 rushing yards, and this ground game has brought a sense of balance to the offense that was missing in past campaigns. (Offensive Coordinator) Garrett Riley, who is in his second season since arriving via TCU and actually spent two years in this same role at SMU beforehand (2020-2021), builds the passing game off of their success on the ground, which will be something to watch tonight. In the three games in which Clemson was relegated below 150 rushing yards, they averaged 13.6 points and 317.6 total yards, committing four turnovers along the way. They were 1-2 in those contests, by the way. The most recent instance was last weekend’s loss to the Gamecocks, which was only the second in their last ten encounters with their instate rivals, a sloppy affair in which the combatants’ 850 combined yards were wiped away by five turnovers, two of which came courtesy of Swinney’s troops. The Tigers led 14-7 midway through the fourth quarter, though saw SCU finish the game on a 10-0 run, as the defense struggled to corral the ‘Cocks rushing attack, particularly that of (mobile QB) LaNorris Sellers, who gashed them for 166 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner with 1:08 left to play. Klubnik would respond with a frantic drive deep into enemy territory, but before his side could set up a reasonable field goal to potentially send the game into overtime, was picked off on second-and-ten from the host’s 18-yard line. When it was all said and done, Klubnik completed 24-of-36 passes for 280 yards, while rushing for another sixty-two yards and two more scores, including an 18-yard jaunt midway through the third quarter. Mafah had sixty-six yards on twenty carries, though lost the football on a key fumble in opponent’s territory later in the third period.
From a betting perspective, Clemson may be 9-3 straight-up this season, but they have lost bettors plenty of money against the spread (5-7), parlaying to a net deficit of 2.45 units. This is a team that started strong enough, covering four of their first six games of the schedule, though have been stuck in a malaise ever since, recording only a single cover in their final six contests. Under the leadership of Swinney, this is a program that is 121-101-3 versus the spread since he was promoted seventeen years ago, including 20-15 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 20-16-1 when coming off a SU loss, and a commanding 81-60 against their fellow ACC residents. In fact, this is only the EIGHTH time since 2017 that his troops have been underdogs, and the fifth such instance to occur BEFORE the playoff. Looking at this particular matchup, this the first time that these schools will meet on the gridiron. This is however, the NINTH ACC Championship Game that the Tigers have participated in under his watch, winning every single one of them. For those wondering, they have covered all but one of those affairs as well. The last time that Clemson reached this stage, they hammered North Carolina in a 39-10 drubbing that saw the world properly introduced to the aforementioned Klubnik. Remember, there was a time when the junior was patiently waiting for his opportunity behind the hyped D.J. Uiagalelei, though this tilt served as his coming-out party; the Texas native completed 20-of-24 throws for 279 yards and a short touchdown, while also leading the team with thirty rushing yards and another score on seven carries. The Tigers were actually outgained in terms of total yards (386-385), though turned the tables on the Tar Heels with three takeaways, including a 98-yard interception return to the house midway through the third quarter. Mafah, who was a sophomore that season, rushed for a touchdown of his own late in the first period. Even with their pedigree, the public doesn’t seem to be convinced in these cats tonight, with approximately 42% of all wagers placed upon the spread taking the points, with a slightly larger share of all money changing hands following suit (43%). On the injury front, Swinney’s troops are largely healthy with no major absences to be expected. Looking ahead, a win tonight will send Clemson to their seventh appearance in the playoff dating back to 2015 and their first since 2020, while a loss will see them competing in a bowl game that has yet to be revealed.
Meanwhile, with all due respect to Florida State’s plummet into oblivion, the biggest surprise in the Atlantic Coast Conference this Fall has been SMU (11-1, 8-0 in ACC), who in their first season following a transition from the American Athletic Conference have an opportunity to claim a second straight league title. Indeed, the ponies haven’t lost any pace under the leadership of (Head Coach) Rhett Lashlee, who has won TWENTY-NINE games since he arrived back in 2022, including back-to-back 11-win campaigns. In fact, the Mustangs haven’t lost a conference game since November 17th, 2022, riding a streak of seventeen consecutive wins between two different leagues. While this is a program that has long been associated with having a high-powered offense, it has been Lashlee’s investment on the defensive side of the football that has led to this resurgence in Dallas. In his first year on the job, the defense was a sieve, shipping 33.8 points (119th in FBS) on 431.2 total yards with a turnover differential of -2. Last Fall, this group showed tremendous growth under (Defensive Coordinator) Scott Symons, relegating opponents a vastly improved 17.8 points (11th in FBS) on 304.1 total yards, posting a takeaway +/- of +3. It has been more of the same in year three, as Southern Methodist has relinquished 19.8 points (19th in FBS) on 326.1 yards with a differential of +2 in the turnover column. Furthermore, three different players have logged at least three interceptions, while the unit as a whole has scored four touchdowns to boot. With that being said, these ponies remain potent in attack too, scoring 39.2 points per game (4th in FBS) on 441.8 total yards, including 263.9 yards through the air and another 177.9 yards on the ground, parlaying to a healthy 6.5 yards per play. This group is built in similar fashion to that of tonight’s opponent, gashing opponents on the ground, leading to opportunities downfield. The biggest story here has been the emergence of (Redshirt Sophomore Quarterback) Kevin Jennings, who has earned the full-time starting gig due in large to his arm talent. Of course, Jennings (pictured below) has seen plenty of action over the last two seasons in place of the talented Preston Stone, who was highly recruited transfer from Oklahoma that Lashlee convinced to come to SMU instead of Texas. Unfortunately, Stone saw both the 2022 and 2023 campaigns end prematurely to injury, and following a slow start to this season handed the baton to his teammate, who quite frankly hasn’t looked back. During this 9-game winning streak, he has completed an efficient 68.7% of his throws for 2,404 yards on a healthy 9.8 yards per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while making plays with his legs as well, rushing for 248 yards and three more scores. While they have a habit of playing a little too loose with the football (committing 19 turnovers thus far), he and his teammates punched their ticket to tonight’s conference championship by putting together their most complete performance of the season, last weekend’s 38-6 demolition of California. The Mustangs started and finished strong in this one, folks, opening the affair twenty-one unanswered points, before closing it out with seventeen straight points in the fourth quarter. The hosts dominated this one, outgaining the Bears 415-254 in total yardage, including 300-159 through the air, while going without committing a turnover for only the third time this season. Granted, Lashlee will lament their seventeen penalties for a loss of 137 yards, but the outcome was never in question; this has been an ongoing issue for the ponies, who have been flagged 10+ times in four different games thus far. Jennings completed 20-of-30 passes for 225 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including a 23-yarder in the final frame to (Senior Tailback) Brashard Smith, who also rushed for a score along with sixty-eight yards on sixteen carries. Defensively, (sixth-year Senior Safety) Jonathan McGill came up with the game’s lone turnover, an interception, while (Senior Linebacker) Kobe Wilson logged a pair of sacks on Senior Day.
From a betting perspective, SMU have in turn been one of the more rewarding teams in the country this season, finishing the campaign with an 11-1 record straight-up and an 8-4 ledger against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 3.27 units, which is tied for second-most in the ACC. This is a team that has yet to suffer consecutive losses SU or ATS, with seven covers in their last nine outings, including last weekend’s finale against Cal, whom they were favored by 12.5 points against. Under the direction of Lashlee, this is a program 21-18 versus the spread, including 16-11 when favored by the oddsmakers, 16-11 following a SU victory, and 16-9 against conference opponents (between the ACC and AAC). Furthermore, the Mustangs have covered four of their last five contests after shipping 100+ rushing yards, which is the case tonight. With all that being said, there are two relevant trends working against them tonight: they haven’t covered four consecutive neutral site games overall, along with an 0-4 record in such contests when favored. Interestingly, Southern Methodist is attempting to achieve a rare double in winning back-to-back conference titles in two different leagues (ironically, so is Texas). The ponies captured their eleventh all-time conference championship last December when they toppled Tulane in the AAC Title Game, winning outright despite being 3.0-point dogs. This one could have been an absolute blowout had Lashlee’s troops not settled four a quartet of field goals in the second half, but all the credit should go to (Defensive Coordinator) Scott Symons, whose unit relegated the Green Wave to a mere 269 total yards on twelve first downs, thirty-one rushing yards on twenty-six carries (1.2 y/c!!!), with SEVEN sacks, and an interception courtesy of (Junior Safety) Isaiah Nwokobia. As we touched upon earlier, the betting public is drinking the kool-aid that they’re serving in Dallas, with roughly 53% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread riding with the Pony Express, while a slightly smaller share of the money has followed suit (52%). On the injury front, Lashlee lost (Senior Wideout) Jake Bailey for the rest of the season due to an undisclosed malady back in late October, with (Junior Tight End) R.J. Maryland suffering a similar fate a week earlier. The only other Mustang whose availability is hanging in the balance is that of (Sophomore Cornerback) A.J. Davis, who missed last weekend’s finale against the Bears due to the effects of a concussion. Looking ahead, a win tonight sends SMU to their first playoff appearance in the history of the program, while a loss will likely see them omitted from the field of twelve altogether, with an unidentified bowl being their destination.