1:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Vikings -6.0, Total: 45.5
Playoff hopefuls cross paths in Minneapolis, as the surging Minnesota Vikings look to keep pace in the competitive NFC North, playing host to the fading Atlanta Falcons, who are looking to snap an ugly three-game losing streak in this is, a reunion between quarterback and his former employers. What in the name of Deion Sanders has happened to the Falcons (6-6, 1st in NFC South)? After advancing to 6-3 and putting a perceived stranglehold on the division, these dirty birds have gone into an unexpected downward spiral, losing each of their last three games to threaten their chances of getting to the postseason for the first time since 2017. Indeed, this is NOT what (longtime owner) Arthur Blank and (General Manager) Terry Fontenot had in mind when they overhauled the coaching staff and roster during the offseason; Atlanta hired (Head Coach) Raheem Morris after a successful stint coordinating the Rams defense, while making major moves in free agency with the addition of (veteran Quarterback) Kirk Cousins in a bid to end their persistent struggles at that position. Of course, Cousins (pictured below) was coming off a torn Achilles that ended his previous campaign after just eight games, making him quite a gamble at 36-years-old, which led Fontenot and Morris to hedge their bets with the surprising selection of (former Washington Quarterback) Michael Penix Jr. at eighth overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft. The train of thought was that the former would finally unlock an offense littered with talent at the skill positions in the short term, while the latter would take his time getting acclimated to the NFL and eventually lead the team as their franchise passer for years to come. As ambitious as this project is, it hasn’t been without its faults, due in large part to the play of Cousins, which has been erratic at best. On the season, the 4-time Pro-Bowler has completed an efficient 67.4% of his throws for an average of 254.3 yards per game on 6.80 net yards per attempt, but has thrown seventeen touchdowns in comparison to THIRTEEN interceptions, which leads the NFL. Sure, he has authored three fourth-quarter comebacks thus far, while providing some stunning performances like a 509-yard, 4-touchdown showing in an overtime thriller against the Bucs, but his stock of late has plummeted with three consecutive losses in which he has failed to throw a single score, marking the first time in his career that he has failed to do so. During this stretch, Cousins has also committed SEVEN turnovers, including FOUR in last weekend’s narrow 17-13 loss at home to the Chargers. The Falcons had nobody but themselves to blame for this one, folks. After missing a 35-yard field goal attempt following a 13-play opening drive, they would open their ledger with a short rushing touchdown courtesy of (Sophomore Tailback) Bijan Robinson on the next possession. However, while Morris’ defense held Los Angeles to three consecutive field goals before shipping a mere thirty-eight yards in the second half, the self-destructive nature of his own offense prevented them from taking any advantage. Turnovers aren’t created equally, with some being more damning than others, which was the case with the second pick that Cousins threw, which was returned SIXTY-ONE yards to the house, accounting for the only points that the bolts could muster post-intermission. The latter two interceptions came in enemy territory too, including the third which came on a third-and-goal from LA’s 13-yard line. When it was all said and done, the hosts lost despite outgaining the visitors 350-187 in total yards, 116-56 in rushing, 245-150 in passing, 24-10 in first downs, and 35:55 in time of possession, only for those errant throws to waste what was an excellent performance from the defense. Cousins was 24-of-39 passing for 245 yards, while Robinson amassed 135 yards from scrimmage and that rushing score on thirty-two touches. Needless to say, there was a lot of discussion about Cousins’ status as the starter and if Penix was ready to take over, though Morris was quick to quell any speculation over a change at QB. With that being said, we wonder if that will continue to be the case if the birds happen to drop a fourth straight game this afternoon.
From a betting perspective, the Falcons may be 6-6 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (5-7) parlaying to a net loss of 2.45 units. These birds managed to hover above ground with five covers in their first nine contests but have since seen their wings clipped with three consecutive spread defeats. Under the direction of Morris, this is a franchise that is 11-12 versus the spread between his stint as an interim coach with the club back in 2020 and the current campaign, while posting a 5-16 record ATS versus opponents that are above .500, which dates even further back to his thee-year term with the Buccaneers. As a franchise, Atlanta has covered ELEVEN of their last thirteen away games in the month of December against non-division opponents, along with five covers in their last six outings immediately preceding an appearance on Monday Night Football. However, being an underdog hasn’t been a comfortable role for the dirty birds, who are 3-7 ATS in their last ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is the case this afternoon. As for Cousins, over the course of his career he is 41-33 ATS away from home, a middling 37-36 ATS as a dog, 17-9 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU losses, and 49-52 ATS versus opposition outside his division. Looking at this particular matchup, the Falcons trail the all-time series between these franchises 21-12 SU, with the road side (and coincidentally the dog) winning four of the last five meetings outright, though it should be noted that the birds can only account for one of those victories. When they crossed paths last Fall, it was an entertaining 31-28 affair at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with only seven total yards separating the two teams, who each committed a pair of turnovers. Atlanta led 21-13 late in the third quarter before shipping ten unanswered points to Minnesota, only for the home side to rally back to take a 28-24 advantage via a short touchdown run courtesy of (veteran Tailback) Tyler Allgeier. Unfortunately, 2:08 proved to be enough time left for the Northmen to drive seventy-five yards downfield and breach the end zone one final time to end the game. Robinson and Allgeier rushed for fifty-one and thirty-nine yards respectively on a combined twenty-three carries, though the former lost a crucial fumble in the third period, leading directly to that aforementioned 10-0 run. The public doesn’t appear to remember that game, as roughly 55% of all wagers placed upon the spread are doing the dirty bird, with a slightly smaller share of the money (51%) following suit. Getting back to Cousins, he was out of commission as a member of the Vikings in this one, recovering from that ruptured Achilles. The well-traveled QB has faced his former teams on just two occasions, beating Washington twice with a completion percentage of 68.1% for 275.0 yards per game on a healthy 7.89 net yards per attempt, with a pair of touchdowns in comparison to one interception. On the injury front, Morris has seven players currently occupying a place on injured reserve, though there aren’t any significant absences to be found coming into this contest. Looking ahead, the Falcons will travel to Sin City to battle the fading Raiders on Monday Night Football, before returning home to the ATL to host the struggling Giants.
Meanwhile, raise your hands if you thought that the Vikings (10-2, 2nd in NFC North) would be in the thick of the playoff race this Fall, let alone vying for the best record in the NFL? We’ll wait… For all intents and purposes, this was supposed to be something of a rebuilding season for Minnesota, who parted ways with Cousins in free agency and selected his replacement, (Michigan Quarterback) J.J. McCarthy with the tenth overall pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft. Unfortunately, the reigning national champion tore his meniscus in the second preseason affair back in August, throwing the plans of (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell and (General Manager) Kewsi Adofo-Mensah into a spiral. Needless to say, this was NOT what the faithful in Minneapolis wanted to hear after a campaign in which FOUR different quarterbacks started multiple games for the Northmen, who finished 7-10 as a result. However, the brain trust made one of the shrewdest moves of the offseason in signing (veteran QB) Sam Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract. Initially expected to simply serve as a bridge to McCarthy, Darnold (pictured below) has instead become a godsend for the Vikings, turning around his career in stunning fashion. It has been an interesting career thus far for the vet who is remarkably still just 27-years-old, or in other words, three years older than the aforementioned Penix. Selected with the third overall pick by the Jets in the 2018 Draft, Darnold struggled mightily during his three years with Gang Green, posting a 13-25 record as the starter with a 45/39 TD/INT ratio. Granted, New York was (and continues to be) a mess, though it was fairly damning that his next stop with the Panthers came and went so quickly; he would start seventeen games in two years in Carolina (8-9), with his issues with turnovers (16 interceptions) continuing to plague him. Again, the Panthers had plenty of problems outside of QB to deal with, so from there Darnold took his toolbox to San Francisco, where he would begin to rehab his image and iron out the many wrinkles in his game under the direction of Kyle Shanahan. Despite being active for ten games, he would only start one, though appeared to have corrected many of his flaws, which is why the Vikings took a chance on him this Fall. It has certainly helped that O’Connell runs a similar system to Shanahan, while serving as an excellent mentor to the position himself. As a result, Darnold has finally looked like the prospect he was coming out of USC all those years ago, posting career-highs in completion percentage (67.6%), yards per game (246.0), yards per attempt (8.2), touchdown percentage (6.4%), passer rating (102.5) and QBR (55.5). In fact, this guy ranks second in the NFL behind (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson with NINE games with multiple touchdown throws. Talk about a late bloomer… The veteran journeyman played a sizable role in last weekend’s 23-22 rally over the Cardinals, coming back from a 19-6 deficit with seventeen points scored on their final three drives. Trailing 22-16 with 3:20 left to play in regulation, the hosts marched seventy yards downfield in eight plays, as Darnold found (Sophomore Wideout) Jordan Addison for a key 26-yard strike to move into Arizona territory, eventually driving all the way to the 5-yard line, where he found (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones for the go-ahead score. When it was all said and done, O’Connell’s troops managed to win this one despite trailing in multiple categories, including total yards (406-273), rushing yards (154-68), first downs (25-19), and time of possession (24:11). Furthermore, the Northmen converted just one of their eight third downs, while Darnold sustained five sacks and eight pressures. However, (Defensive Coordinator) Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense forced a pair of turnovers in the second half, while some big throws downfield from Darnold made up the difference. The quarterback completed 21-of-31 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns, while (All-Pro Receiver) Justin Jefferson hauled in seven catches for ninety-nine yards, with Addison totaling fifty-four yards on five receptions. (Veteran Cornerbacks) Byron Murphy and Shaquill Griffin each picked off a pass, while (young Edge-Rusher) Jonathan Greenard logged their lone sack and forced a fumble to boot.
From a betting perspective, the Vikings continue to impress at 10-2 straight-up, even though they too haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (7-4-1), parlaying to a net profit of 2.36 units. This team began the campaign in white-hot form, winning and covering each of their first five games, but have since cooled off considerably, with just two covers in their last seven contests (2-4-1). Under the direction of O’Connell, this is a franchise that is a middling 22-21-4 versus the spread, including 9-14 at U.S. Bank Stadium, 13-14-1 when favored by the oddsmakers, 14-12-1 following a SU victory, and 17-12 against non-division opponents. With that being said, they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four encounters with NFC competition and have covered just once in twelve opportunities in the month of December facing an opponent fresh off a non-division clash. Minnesota has covered six straight outings prior to making an appearance on Monday Night Football, though have failed to cover five consecutive games as home favorites of four or more points following back-to-back SU wins, which is the case this afternoon. A we covered earlier, the Northmen have gotten the better of the dirty birds more often than not (though a 30-27 overtime loss in the 1998 NFC Championship definitely carries some weight), posting a 21-12 record in the all-time series between these franchises. The Vikings have won five of the past six meetings dating back to 2014, covering each of the games that they won outright, including two in Minneapolis. Their most recent encounter, that aforementioned 31-28 tilt from November of 2023, saw O’Connell’s troops trail throughout the contest until making the Falcons pay for their mistakes. After forcing and recovering a fumble late in the third quarter, the visitors drew level via an 18-yard rushing touchdown from (journeyman QB) Joshua Dobbs, before getting the ball right back thanks to an interception from Murphy, leading to the go-ahead field goal on the ensuing possession. Atlanta would retake the lead late in the final stanza, but left too much time on the clock, as Dobbs engineered an 11-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a short touchdown toss to (well-traveled Wideout) Josh Powell, effectively ending the affair. Dobbs, who was making his first start after arriving via midseason trade from Arizona, made quite an impact with 224 total yards and three touchdowns. As for their current quarterback, Darnold has faced the Falcons just once and that was back during his brief stint as the Panthers’ starter, completing 13-of-24 passes for just 129 yards and a fumble in a 19-13 victory. On the injury front, O’Connell has ten different players currently occupying a spot on injured reserve, including (Left Tackle) Christian Darrisaw (ACL, MCL) and (promising young Linebacker) Ivan Pace (hamstring). As for the rest of the team, (veteran Cornerback) Stephon Gilmore is out of action with a tender hamstring, while (Defensive Tackle) Harrison Phillips (back), (Linebacker) Andrew Van Ginkel (thigh), and (veteran Guard) Dalton Risner (back) are all listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Vikings will remain in Minneapolis for a third straight week as they welcome the Bears for a key division brawl, followed by a trip to the pacific northwest to face the Seahawks.