
8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Bengals -5.5, Total: 49.5
Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL cross paths tonight in Arlington, as the Cincinnati Bengals desperately search for a lifeline to salvage their postseason hopes, while the decimated Dallas Cowboys are simply enjoying what has been a bittersweet win streak, which is remarkably their first of the campaign. One half of this proverbial bowl of disappointment are the Bengals (4-8, 3rd in AFC North), who after coming into this season as a trendy pick to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LIX, have instead fallen FOUR games under .500 and well outside of the playoff picture. So, what in the name of Ken Anderson has happened in Cincinnati, you ask? Well, you can’t blame the offense, which has been one of the most productive in the league thus far; these cats rank fifth in scoring (27.9), ninth in total yards (356.0), fifth in third down percentage (45.5%), and second in red zone touchdown percentage (71.1%). At the heart of this success has been (former Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Joe Burrow, who has been the most prolific passer in the NFL this season. After his previous campaign was cut short due to a broken wrist, Burrow (pictured below) has been on one in 2024, leading the league in passing attempts (446), completions (302), yards (3,337), and touchdowns (30), all the while posting a career-high in QBR (74.1). Alongside his former collegiate teammate, Ja’Marr Chase, who coincidentally sits atop the NFL in both receiving yards (1,142) and scores (13), the 27-year-old has carried the Bengals thus far, though it simply hasn’t been enough due to the complete collapse of their defense, which really has been remarkable. (Head Coach) Zac Taylor is the team’s primary offensive playcaller, while his (Defensive Coordinator) Lou Anarumo has been in charge of that side of the football since 2019, overseeing a unit that ranked sixth in points allowed two years ago. However, it appears that the slide that they experienced last season (21st in points allowed) has continued; Cincinnati ranks next-to-last in points relinquished (28.3) on 369.1 total yards (27th Overall), including 241.0 yards against the pass (27th Overall) with twenty-two touchdowns (29th Overall), while shipping 128.1 yards versus the run (22nd Overall) and sixteen more scores (27th Overall). Furthermore, they’ve struggled situationally on both third down (44.4%) and within the red zone (68.4%), clocking in at twenty-eighth and thirtieth respectively. Injuries and a lack of depth along the defensive front, coupled with a young Secondary that has been forced into action due to absences of their own (which we’ll further detail shortly) has really hurt this defense, which has in turn wasted the exploits of Burrow and Chase. 1-4 over their last five games, Anarumo’s group has been gashed for 37.5 points on 435.2 total yards in those four losses, including an untenable 304.0 yards through the air. The worst was easily the most recent, a 44-38 loss at home to (bitter rival) Pittsburgh, who pulled away in the second half of a track meet. It’s not often that you lose a game in which you score thirty-eight points and post 375 total yards, but that was the reality for the Bengals, who self-destructed after intermission, as Burrow was intercepted and stripped of the football on back-to-back possessions. Eleven penalties for a loss of 101 yards certainly didn’t help either, while the defense was a step slow nearly all day, permitting a season-high 520 yards, 410 of which coming via the pass. Burrow completed 28-of-38 throws for 309 yards, three touchdowns and three turnovers (one interception, two fumbles), while taking four sacks, seven hits, and eighteen pressures. That equates to pressure on 40.9% of his drop-backs, folks, which again, is remarkable. Chase and (fellow Wideout) Tee Higgins each hauled in a score, with the former catching six balls for eighty-six yards and the latter reeling in five receptions for sixty-nine yards. (Sophomore Tailback) Chase Brown totaled 100 yards from scrimmage on fifteen touches. It will be interesting to see what this notoriously frugal franchise does moving forward, given the contract standoffs with both Chase and Higgins, an offensive line that continues to struggle, and a defense that needs to be replenished on all three levels.

From a betting perspective, the Bengals may be one of the more disappointing teams in the NFL at 4-8 straight-up, but they have been more rewarding against the spread (6-6), parlaying to a net loss of 0.55 units. This has been a maddeningly inconsistent team to either bet on or against this Fall, particularly when you consider that they have strung together back-to-back covers on two occasions, though are currently riding a streak of two spread losses. Under the leadership of Taylor, this is a franchise that is 54-40-5 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2019, including a stellar 33-17 away from Paycor Stadium, 31-20 when favored by the oddsmakers, 25-21 when coming off a SU loss, 9-3 when shipping 35+ points in the previous week, and 6-4 after scoring 35+ points themselves. Furthermore, Cincinnati is 26-11 SU and 28-9-2 ATS in their past thirty-seven games versus all opponents residing outside of the AFC North. That run also includes a 16-2 ATS mark versus non-division opponents off back-to-back SU wins, which is the case tonight. Taylor & Co have also covered six of their last seven games following consecutive SU defeats after allowing thirty-five or more points, which is once again the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, Cincy is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite, with a 2-8 ledger ATS against non-division opposition away from Southern Ohio. As for Burrow, the veteran is a stellar 26-12 ATS on the road, 22-17 ATS as a favorite, 6-2 when coming off consecutive SU losses, and 31-15 ATS opposite of non-division opponents. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bengals trail the all-time series 10-4 SU, losing each of the last five meetings dating back to 2008 (1-4 ATS). In fact, they’ve haven’t beaten the Cowboys outright since 2004 (26-3). When they last crossed paths in 2022, it was under similar circumstances; Taylor’s troops limped into AT&T Stadium with their tails between their legs desperately in need of win against an injury-ravaged opponent, only to play down to the level of their competition, losing an ugly 20-17 affair. Burrow & Co trailed 17-3 at halftime, due in large part to their inability to protect him within the pocket against Dallas’ ferocious pass-rush, conceding SIX sacks and THIRTEEN pressures. At the end of the afternoon, he completed 24-of-36 throws for 199 yards and a short touchdown to Higgins, who reeled in six receptions on ten targets for seventy-one yards. As for Chase, he totaled five catches on nine targets for fifty-four yards. Burrow is 1-2 all-time on Monday nights, averaging 271.7 yards per game with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The public doesn’t appear to mind that recent history against the pokes, as approximately 72% of all wagers placed upon the spread tonight are sporting tiger stripes, while an even larger share of the money (85%) has followed suit. On the injury front, Taylor has twelve different players occupying a place on injured reserve, including starters such as (Defensive Backs) Daxton Hill and D.J. Turner, (Linebacker) Logan Wilson, (Offensive Guard) Jaxson Kirkland, and most recently (young Kicker) Evan McPherson. Furthermore, (veteran Left Tackle) Orlando Brown Jr. finally returned last weekend after missing four consecutive games with a broken bone in his fibula, though has been ruled out due to soreness in that same area. Looking ahead, the Bengals will travel to Nashville to face the lowly Titans next weekend, before returning home for their annual visit from their northern instate rivals, the Browns.
Meanwhile, if the Bengals think they have had it rough, we’d like to introduce you to their opponent tonight, the Cowboys (5-7, 3rd in NFC East), who recent win streak aside, have been embroiled in arguably their most disappointing campaign in recent memory. After three consecutive 12-5 finishes, expectations were once again sky-high in Dallas, where the mandate continues to be finding a way to end the franchise’s 28-year Lombardi drought, particularly after their ignominious postseason exit last January. To ensure that his team remains in contention, (longtime owner) Jerry Jones opted to retain the services of (Head Coach) Mike McCarthy, while handing out lucrative extensions to (Pro-Bowl Quarterback) Dak Prescott and (All-Pro Wideout) CeeDee Lamb. However, instead of seeing their window of opportunity extended, the pokes have instead seen it close shut for the time being, losing seven of their first ten contests due in large part to offseason defections and a rash of injuries on both sides of the ball. Indeed, given the plethora of quality coaching candidates available, we seriously wonder if Jones wouldn’t have decided to part ways with McCarthy, who now enters the final year of his contract without an extension in hand. It certainly doesn’t help the 61-year-old’s case that he no can longer rely upon (former Defensive Coordinator) Dan Quinn, who after three stellar seasons in Arlington is now spearheading the resurgence for (bitter rival) Washington. The man he chose to replace him, Mike Zimmer hasn’t made a positive impact in this, his second stint with the franchise, as the defense has been almost as bad as Cincinnati’s; the Cowboys have shipped 28.3 points per game (29th Overall) on 359.6 total yards (26th Overall), including an abysmal 147.5 yards versus the run (31st Overall) and the most rushing scores in the league (21). Furthermore, no team has been more generous in the red zone (76.9%), while their steep decline in takeaways (14), has parlayed to a -7 differential on that front (27th Overall). Keep in mind that no team forced more turnovers over the previous three seasons than Dallas (93!), which can be attributed to Quinn’s influence. On the opposite side of the football, the attack has been very one-dimensional, as that was before Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring tear back in early November. With the offensive line being reconstructed and without a bell cow in the backfield, McCarthy’s offense lacks balance in the worst way, rushing for just 85.8 yards on 3.7 yards per carry, both of which rank next-to-last in the NFL. Basically, this unit consisted of Prescott playing pitch-and-catch with Lamb (pictured below) for eight games, only to now have one half of that connection healthy and active. Ironically, the Cowboys have strung together better results of late, particularly against their division, besting Quinn’s Commanders (34-26) and the lowly Giants (27-20) in consecutive weeks. The latter victory was their first of the season at AT&T Stadium, on Thanksgiving Day no less, which featured a resurgent ground game (122 yards) and their second straight tilt winning the turnover battle (+2). Granted, it was against New York’s feeble offense, but let’s give Zimmer’s defense some credit for holding the visitors to 247 total yards and 3-of-12 on third down, while logging SIX sacks, seven hits, and thirteen pressures. (Edge-Rushers) Micah Parsons and Carl Lawson combined for 2.5 sacks and four pressures apiece, while (Rookie Linebacker) DeMarvion Overshown totaled nine tackles and an interception. (Longtime Backup QB) Cooper Rush completed 21-of-36 passes for 195 yards and a short touchdown toss to (veteran Receiver) Brandin Cooks, while (veteran Tailback) Rico Dowdle erupted for 112 yards and a touchdown on twenty-two carries. As is the case with their opponent tonight, uncertainty awaits Dallas, who must decide whether or not they will re-sign McCarthy and who may arrive to replace him, along with coming to a long-term agreement with Parsons, which could dramatically affect their ability to bolster the offensive and defensive fronts come Spring.

From a betting perspective, the Cowboys may have improved to 5-7 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (4-8), parlaying to a net loss of 4.36 units. Prior to this string of back-to-back SU/ATS victories, this is a team that had covered just three of their previous fourteen games dating back to last season, snapping a streak of five straight spread defeats. Under the direction of McCarthy, this is a franchise that is 43-40 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2020, including a middling 21-20 at AT&T Stadium, 13-17 when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 24-23 following a SU victory, and 26-29 versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover all but two of their last ten games following a double-digit SU home win in the month of December, which is the case tonight. It should also be noted that they have covered SEVEN straight tilts immediately following an encounter with the Giants, which is also the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, Big D has hosted Monday Night Football thirty-one times (13-18 ATS), though have been much more successful as an underdog in these affairs (5-1 ATS). They are also 12-2 ATS as dogs versus an opponent harboring revenge, which if you’ve been paying attention, is once again the case in this matchup. Looking at this particular contest, the Cowboys lead the all-time series 10-4 SU, with eight victories in their last ten meetings, including six covers along the way. As we detailed earlier, there is an eerie sense of deja vu for both teams heading into this one, for when they met in that aforementioned 20-17 affair from two years ago, Prescott was also out of action, that time due to a broken bone in his right thumb. This game served as our introduction to Rush, who made only the second start of his career and for all intents and purposes handled himself well, completing 19-of-31 passes for 235 yards and a 9-yard touchdown to open the scoring, while refraining from making any critical mistakes. Despite possessing the football for just 26:12 of game time and losing the turnover battle (-1), the hosts outgained Cincinnati 337-254 in total yardage, thanks in large part to the pressure that their defense managed to apply to Burrow. Dallas pressured him on 28.9% of his drop-backs, hitting him four times, hurrying him on three occasions, and forcing a quartet of bad throws. Parsons was a wrecking ball in this one, folks, totaling a pair of sacks, five pressures, and three knockdowns on the day. On the injury front, McCarthy has eleven different players languishing on injured reserve, including Prescott along with (defensive Linemen) DeMarcus Lawrence and Sam Williams. (Veteran Guard) Zack Martin was the latest to join the group, with the 7-time All-Pro likely shutting it down for the rest of the campaign due to a broken ankle that rumors suggest may be career-ending. Furthermore, (Rookie Offensive Tackle) Tyler Guyton is questionable with an ailing ankle of his own, while Lamb was limited throughout the extended week of practice with a sore shoulder. Looking ahead, the Cowboys will travel to Charlotte to face the Panthers next weekend, before returning to Arlington to host the Buccaneers.