8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: 49ers -3, Total: 48.5
Bitter division rivals cross paths yet again, this time with added postseason implications due to the parity in their division, as the surging Los Angeles Rams make their annual pilgrimage to Santa Clara to battle the decimated San Francisco 49ers, who have been in search for consistency for months. In sports, fortune and momentum can turn at the drop of a dime, as the Rams (7-6, 2nd in NFC West) have found out over the eight weeks, going from a franchise that looked as if they were on the verge of rebuild, to making a serious run at a return to the playoffs. Indeed, Los Angeles endured a brutal 1-4 start to the campaign brought on by a plethora of injuries to key personnel, including much of the offensive line and their dynamic tandem of receivers, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who missed three and four games respectively due to lower-body maladies. There were rumors swirling that the franchise could trade either Kupp or (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford in an effort to shed a wealth of cap space, though (Head Coach) Sean McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead ultimately relented from pushing the reset button and are not reaping the rewards; since their bye week, this is a team that has turned things around with six victories in eight games, five coming by one possession, with a turnover differential of +4. With McVay at the controls and Stafford pulling the trigger (pictured together below), the offense has found its rhythm in averaging 25.5 points per game on 351.1 total yards, including 244.6 yards through the air on a healthy 7.1 net yards per attempt. Stafford has carried the attack during this stretch, completing 66.3% of his throws for 2,065 yards, sixteen touchdowns and just four interceptions, while Kupp has logged forty-five receptions for 510 yards and six scores, with Nacua adding fifty catches for 673 yards and three touchdowns of his own. Add (third-year Tailback) Kyren Williams and his 1,168 yards from scrimmage and fourteen scores to the mix, and you have an offense that rounded back into the form of the threatening unit it was down the stretch of the previous campaign. If you needed a reminder as to what these guys could do, then look no further than their wild 44-42 shootout victory over the Bills last weekend. The hosts handed Buffalo their first loss since early October, amassing 457 total yards on twenty-eight first downs, converting 11-of-15 third downs (1-of-1 on fourth), and possessed the football for a commanding 38:30 of game time. With the offensive line whole again, the ground game provided some sorely missed balance, churning out 137 yards on forty-two carries, their most rushing attempts in a game thus far by a wide margin. Stafford deftly picked apart the visitor’s zone coverage, racking up 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 22-of-30 passing, averaging a whopping 10.7 yards per throw, with Nacua and Kupp accounting for 254 yards of that production and both scores. Williams rushed for two of his own along with eighty-seven yards on an industrious twenty-nine carries. Granted, it was fairly alarming that the defense struggled so much to slow down Josh Allen & Co, but this was simply one of the rare games in which the team that has ball last wins claims victory. When the Bills cut the deficit to three points midway through the fourth quarter, Stafford responded with an 11-play, 71-yard drive that bled nearly seven minutes off the clock, culminating in a 19-yard strike into the end zone to Nacua. Buffalo would strike right back, but were forced to attempt an onside kick, which McVay’s troops recovered, running out the clock. The win drew Los Angeles one game behind the Seahawks for first place in the NFC West, which is notable given that they bested Seattle in a 26-20 overtime affair back in early November. This is precisely the time of year that you want to be playing your best football, and judging from what we’ve seen from these guys, they are doing just that.
From a betting perspective, the Rams may be 7-6 straight-up thus far, but they have been slightly less-rewarding against the spread (6-7), parlaying to a net loss of 1.55 units. The campaign started very slowly for Stafford & Co, who in losing four of their first five games outright, also failed to cover all but one of their first six contests, though have since found their footing five SUATS victories in their last seven outings. Under the direction of McVay, this is a franchise that is 71-63-5 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2017, including 40-35 ATS away from the City of Angels, 26-28 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 40-44 ATS following a SU victory, 32-22 ATS against fellow NFC West opposition, 9-5 ATS after scoring 35+ points and 14-11 ATS after shipping that same amount of points in the previous game. Furthermore, his troops have covered EIGHT of their last nine in which they are away from SoFi Stadium after allowing 35+ points, which is the case tonight. Los Angeles is 3-15 ATS off back-to-back SU wins versus a division opponent sporting a win percentage above .333, which is also the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, this is a team that 1-2 ATS as a road underdog on Thursday nights, though a stellar 6-1 ATS overall in their last eight appearances on TNF, including a 30-20 over the Vikings (+3) back on October 24th. It should also be noted that McVay hasn’t necessarily prospered against his former colleague, Kyle Shanahan (more on him later), with just six SU wins in sixteen meetings dating back to 2017, including 5-10- ATS. However, he did take the most recent encounter, a miraculous 27-24 rally in which the Rams scored twenty of the game’s final twenty-three points in the second half to pull the upset. Los Angeles trailed 21-7 in the second half, but capitalized on some opportunities, while the aforementioned Williams scored his second and third touchdowns of the afternoon (both rushing). The young running back amassed 116 yards from scrimmage on twenty-six touches, while Stafford completed 16-of-25 passes for 221 yards and a 15-yard score to Williams. Keep in mind that neither Nacua nor Kupp were available due to injury, while the offensive line was ravaged as well. As for the veteran QB, over the course of his career he is 51-56 ATS away from home, 48-59 ATS as a dog, 16-32 ATS following back-to-back SU victories, and 36-42 ATS versus division foes. In eleven all-time meetings with the Niners, the 2-time Pro-Bowler is just 3-8, completing 64.5% of his throws for an average of 268.9 yards on just 5.95 net yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns in comparison to nine interceptions. The public is backing LA in this one, with roughly 73% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread favoring the visiting side, with a slightly smaller share of the overall money changing hands (62%) following suit. On the injury front, this is a team that is getting healthier by the week, with now just six players sitting on injured reserve, including (veteran Defensive Backs) Derion Kendrick and John Johnson III. (Young Cornerback) Cobie Durant (chest) and (veteran Wideout) Demarcus Robinson (shoulder) have each been held out of practice this week due to various maladies and are thus unlikely to participate in tonight’s trip to Santa Clara. Looking ahead, the Rams will travel to the east coast one more time in a showdown with the struggling Jets next weekend, before returning home to SoCal for a pair of division battles against the Cardinals and Seahawks to close the regular season, which will in all likelihood decide their postseason fate.
Meanwhile, whereas their opponent tonight had spent the first half of the season mired in injuries, the 49ers (6-7, 3rd in NFC West) have really been dealing with it all year long, with a mounting list of absentees that seems to grow with each passing week. Every season there are a handful of teams that are struck hard by the dreaded injury bug, with San Francisco being the most prominent thus far; a slew of significant playmakers on both sides of the football have missed lengthy time due to injury, including the likes of (reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Christian McCaffrey, (emerging Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk, (2022 Defensive Player of the Year) Nick Bosa, (11-time Pro-Bowl Left Tackle) Trent Williams, (hard-hitting Safety) Talanoa Hufanga, and (veteran Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave. These aren’t just starters, folks, for they represent not only the best players on this roster but are also some of the best in the NFL at their respective positions, with no team able to sustain such heavy losses and remain at the level that the Niners had consistently performed at. Perhaps this season is the result of so many lengthy campaigns deep into the playoffs without receiving that emotional waterfall of winning a Lombardi Trophy; San Fran went 54-29 (.650) from 2019 to 2023, including four appearances in the NFC Championship Game, and two narrow defeats in Super Bowls LIV and LVIII. During that stretch, players earn hefty paydays, which inevitably turns the roster top-heavy, without the precious depth that they had during the early days of this run. However, this group has still remained competitive if inconsistent, as (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan’s charges rank fourth and third overall in total offense and defense outgaining their opponents by a healthy 80.0 yards per game, which isn’t that far off from the figure that they posted last season (+94.4). They are however -3 in turnover differential (19th overall) thanks to twenty turnovers (26th Overall), while struggling mightily in the red zone, where they have scored a touchdown on just 52.9% of their attempts (22nd Overall) in comparison to the robust 67.2% of last year, which led the league. Of course, having McCaffrey, who has been relegated to just four games due to ongoing issues with his calf and Achilles, has been a major problem for an attack that has had little trouble moving the football between the 20-yard lines only to stall when defenses have a shorter field to defend. This has placed a much heavier load on the shoulders of (third-year Quarterback) Brock Purdy, who hasn’t been quite as productive as he was during his first two seasons with the franchise. Purdy (pictured below alongside Shanahan) has completed a career-low 66.8% of his throws for an average of 252.7 yards on 7.85 net yards per attempt, with nineteen total touchdowns opposed to eleven turnovers, which is a direct reflection of the loss of talent around him. As the 262nd overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, this guy was always going to be branded as a system QB, benefitting from an elite playcaller and premium talent, and what we’re seeing now is what happens when the latter part of the equation is taken away. Purdy’s drop percentage has increased from 2.1% to 4.1% with five more drops in four fewer games, while his pressure percentage (19.7%) has been roughly equivalent to its predecessor (20.1%). The difference though, is he has been far more apt to leave the pocket than before, scrambling a career-high forty times already in comparison to sixteen a year ago. Fortunately, he and his teammates were gifted with a chance to play against a team dealing with more internal madness than anyone, the Bears, whom the hammered in a 38-13 affair last weekend. This one was never in question, folks, as the 49ers led by as many twenty-eight points in the fourth quarter before taking their foot off the gas. The hosts outgained Chicago 452-162 in total yards, 131-68 on the ground, 321-94 through the air, and 22-14 in first downs. After missing the previous game with a shoulder ailment, Purdy returned healthy with 325 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20-of-25 passing, while (third-string Tailback) Isaac Guerendo made the most of his starting opportunity with 128 yards from scrimmage and two rushing scores. (Veteran Wideout) Jauan Jennings hauled in both passing touchdowns along with ninety yards on seven catches, while (veteran Tight End) George Kittle added 151 yards on six receptions.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers have underperformed this season at 6-7 straight-up, but they have been even less-rewarding against the spread (5-8), equating to a net loss of 3.45 units. This is a team that hasn’t covered back-to-back games in over a calendar year, though that victory over the Bears last weekend snapped a skid of four consecutive non-covers. Under the leadership of Shanahan, this is a franchise that is 71-67-1 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2017, including a mediocre 33-34 ATS at Levi’s Stadium, 43-46 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 36-32 ATS with revenge, 40-35 ATS when coming off a SU victory, 25-22 ATS versus their neighbors in the NFC West, and 6-5 ATS after scoring 35+ points in the previous contest. Furthermore, his troops are 20-15 ATS against opponents coming off a cover, which is the case tonight. San Francisco has also covered ELEVEN of their last fifteen division affairs in the month of December, along with twelve out of fourteen games after a non-conference home tilt. However, they have failed to cover SEVEN straight following a cover, five in a row after relinquishing fewer than ninety rushing yards in the previous outing, and five consecutive contests after scoring thirty or more points. Dating back to 1990, the Niners are 8-10 ATS on Thursday nights, including 2-2 ATS as a home favorite, 1-6 ATS when coming off a SU win, which is the case tonight. It should be noted that they have covered four straight appearances on TNF overall, including their previous showing this season, a 36-24 romp over the Seahawks (-3.5). Looking at this particular matchup, San Fran owns a 78-70-3 lead in the all-time series between these longtime rivals, covering the spread in seven of their last ten meetings despite failing to do so in each of the last two, including that aforementioned 27-24 defeat back in September. The 49ers dominated this throughout the first three quarters of play, establishing a 21-7 lead midway through the period, only to miraculously collapse over the final eighteen minutes of play. After shipping a touchdown to cut their lead to seven points, the visitors were forced to settle for a short field goal following a lengthy 13-play drive, only for the Rams to respond with one of their own. From there, (Sophomore Kicker) Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal attempt, leading directly to a Los Angeles touchdown three plays later to draw level a 24-24. Unable to lead San Francisco past midfield, they would punt the ball away, only for it to be returned thirty-eight yards, followed by a 25-yard defensive pass interference penalty, setting up the game-winning kick which split the uprights. Shanahan’s charges outgained LA 425-296 in total yards, including 137-98 on the ground, but lost the turnover battle (1-0) and drew the ire of the officials seven times for a whopping 111 yards lost, which leveled the playing the field. Purdy completed an efficient 22-of-30 throws for 292 yards and three touchdowns, all of which coming courtesy of Jennings, who hauled in eleven of his twelve targets for 175 yards. Getting back to young QB, he is 12-10 ATS all-time at home, 20-18 ATS as a favorite, 2-5 ATS with revenge, 12-14 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 7-6 versus division opposition. Purdy is also 1-1 SU in two all-time meetings with the Rams, completing 70.9% of his passes for 249.0 yards on 8.98 net yards per attempt, with four total touchdowns and a lost fumble. On the injury front, it has been a tough year for the Niners with THIRTEEN different players occupying a place on injured reserve, including the likes of Aiyuk, McCaffrey, and Hargrave. Given the short week, Williams will miss a fourth straight game due to a lingering ankle sprain, while Bosa is listed as questionable to return from his own absence brought on by a hip malady. Depth in the backfield could also be thin, for without McCaffrey and Mason, Guerendo has been limited throughout practice with a tender foot. Looking ahead, it’s not going to get much easier for the 49ers moving forward, as they travel cross country to meet the Dolphins in Miami, before returning to Santa Clara for an NFC Title Game rematch versus the mighty Lions, followed by the season finale at the Cardinals.