4:25 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Lions -2.0, Total: 54.5
As the playoffs rapidly approach, a Super Bowl LIX preview is on tap this evening from Ford Field, as the Surging Detroit Lions host the Buffalo Bills, who are looking to bounce back after what was just their third defeat of the season. After winning each of the last four division titles, many around the league expected the Bills (10-3, 1st in AFC East) to take a step back as they looked to turn the roster over in several areas, including the receiving corps where a pair of longtime playmakers departed for greener pastures. The biggest loss appeared to be that of (4-time Pro-Bowler) Stefan Diggs, who in his four years in Orchard Park accounted for 365 receptions, 5,372 yards, and thirty-seven touchdowns, only for his relationship with the organization to turn sour towards the end, prompting his trade to the Texans last Spring. The loss of such talent at the skill positions was expected to have an adverse effect on (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen, particularly after a sloppy campaign in which he committed a career-high twenty-two turnovers, including eighteen interceptions. However, it seems as if this was all much ado about nothing as Buffalo has already clinched their fifth consecutive division crown, with Allen (pictured below) continuing to carry the attack with aplomb; if last season could be considered a down year for the 28-year-old, then this current run must be MVP-caliber for one of the most prolific players at his position, completing 64.1% of his throws for an average of 233.3 yards on an improved 7.32 net yards per attempt (which is just 0.01 points off his career-best), with twenty-three touchdowns opposed to just five interceptions, and a league-leading QBR of 76.8. Furthermore, he continues to play a major factor in the ground game, rushing for another 32.0 yards per contest on 5.2 yards per carry and nine touchdowns. Much of this turnaround has been attributed to (Offensive Coordinator) Joe Brady, who took over playcalling duties midway through last season with a more grounded approach, which has seen his quarterback cut down on the reckless throws that led to so many turnovers a year ago. In ten games prior to his promotion in 2023, Allen accounted for twenty-six touchdowns in comparison to fourteen turnovers, but since then has totaled FIFTY-FOUR touchdowns opposed to sixteen turnovers in the twenty-two games that have since passed. If there was ever an advert for his MVP candidacy, it would have to be last weekend’s insane performance, albeit in a 44-42 loss, against the Rams. Bittersweet yet historic, Allen was responsible for all six of his team’s touchdowns, passing and rushing for three scores apiece, becoming the first player in NFL history to accomplish such a feat. All three passing touchdowns traversed over twenty yards, including a 41-yard catch-and-run to (backup Tailback) Ty Johnson and 51-yard dart to (unheralded Wideout) Khalil Shakir late in the third quarter. All in all, the two-time Pro-Bowler accounted for 424 of his team’s 445 total yards, as nothing Los Angeles did could slow him down. Unfortunately, the same could be said of (Head Coach) Sean McDermott’s own defense, which was eviscerated by the hosts, who amassed 457 total yards on twenty-eight first downs, including 320 yards through the air and another 137 yards on the ground, converting 11-of-15 third downs along the way and a pair of attempts on fourth, possessing the football for a commanding 38:30 of game time. Buffalo has often struggled against opponents who are physical in the trenches, for if they are forced to come out of their myriad of zone coverages and provide Safety help against the run, then things become rather perilous for a Secondary that simply isn’t adept to performing in man coverage, particularly against pass-catchers such as the Rams’. Los Angeles’ Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua combined for seventeen catches, 254 yards, and a touchdown apiece in this one, while Matthew Stafford matched Allen throw for throw, with 320 yards and two scores on 23-of-30 passes. The veteran gunslinger wasn’t sacked once, was pressured just five times, and hurried on two occasions. With that in mind, we highly doubt that the situation will be any easier in today’s trip to the Motor City…
From a betting perspective, the Bills may be 10-3 straight-up thus far, but they have also been rather rewarding against the spread (8-5), parlaying to a net profit of 2.27 units, which is a major improvement over their performance in that regard last season when they were one of the most frustrating teams in the NFL to bet on (8-11 ATS). After a fairly mediocre start this Fall in which they failed to cover three of their first five outings, this is a group that has since found their stride with six covers in their last eight opportunities. Under the direction of McDermott, this is a franchise that is a solid 72-59-7 versus the spread since he arrived in Western New York back in 2017, including 35-27 ATS away from Highmark Stadium, a middling 23-23 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 22-18 ATS when coming off a SU defeat, 48-38 ATS versus non-division opponents, 5-6 ATS after scoring 35+ points in the previous game, and 13-8 ATS following a contest in which they shipped that same amount of points. Furthermore, his troops have covered eight of their last ten outings after scoring more than thirty-five points, which is the case this evening. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bills have owned a 7-4-1 SU advantage in the all-time series despite crossing paths roughly once every four years, winning six out of nine meetings dating back to 1991, including each of last four. That includes the most recent which was also the last time that they traveled to Ford Field, where they narrowly came away with a 28-25 victory on Thanksgiving Day. Buffalo moved the ball at will against the hosts, amassing 401 total yards of offense on twenty-eight first downs, rushing for 164 yards on twenty-nine carries, and converting a healthy 7-of-12 third downs. However, they struggled to put away Detroit, until the ball was placed within the hands of Allen with very little time to make something happen. With the score level with 0:23 left in regulation, the veteran QB struck quickly with a 36-yard completion to the aforementioned Diggs to progress to the Lions’ 39-yard line, calling a timeout immediately afterward. From there, it was all about getting into (veteran Kicker) Tyler Bass’ range, as Allen rushed for six yards on two carries, teeing up his teammate for the 45-yard game-winner which split the uprights. No. 17 turned in another fantasy-worthy performance with 253 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns on 24-of-42 passing, while rushing for another seventy-eight yards and one more score on ten carries. Over the course of his career, his is 29-21 ATS on the road, 17-14 ATS as an underdog, 17-13 ATS coming off a SU loss, and 41-32 ATS against all foes residing outside of the AFC East. He has only met the Lions twice in his career, winning both encounters, completing 54.4% of his throws for an average of 228.5 yards on 6.35 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for an additional 47.0 yards and two more scores. On the injury front, this is becoming one of the healthier teams in the league with just four players residing on injured reserve, none of which are starters. However, the Secondary is something to keep an eye, as McDermott could be without the services of (Defensive Backs) Rasul Douglas (knee), Damar Hamlin (back, and Taylor Rapp (neck), who were all limited throughout the practice week due to various maladies. Looking ahead, the Bills will finish the campaign with three favorable matchups against division adversaries, including two meetings with the Patriots bookending a visit from the spiraling Jets.
Meanwhile, a season in the National Football League oftentimes comes down to being a war of attrition, with the quality of a team’s depth proving to be the decisive factor whether or not they can ultimately weather the storm of injuries that comes with the physical nature of this sport. Some teams collapse under the weight of heavy losses, while others remarkably persevere, which brings us to the Lions (12-1, 1st in NFC North), who continue to sit atop the NFC despite a troubling mountain of injuries. So, let’s get into the list of absentees, shall we? Detroit has lost SIX starters on the defensive side of the football, including (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Aidan Hutchinson, who was leading the league in sacks (7.5) and pressures (27) after five games before suffering a broken tibia at the end of a 47-9 rout of the Cowboys back in early October. (Fellow Pass-Rushers) Marcus Davenport (elbow) and Derrick Barnes (knee), (Defensive Tackle) Kyle Peko (pectoral), (Linebackers) Alex Anzalone (forearm) and Malcolm Rodriguez (knee), and (Rookie Cornerback) Ennis Rakestraw (hamstring) are all likely out for the rest of the season and possibly the playoffs too, which has put (Head Coach) Dan Campbell and (Defensive Coordinator) Aaron Glenn in a real bind. With that being said, this unit has performed much better than expected, shipping the second-fewest points in the NFL (18.0) on 318.6 total yards (10th Overall), including a mere 93.9 yards against the run (5th Overall), while ranking first on third down (31.3%) and fourth in the red zone (47.2%). You can see why Glenn is coveted by so many teams to fill their head coaching vacancies, with that same notion applying to (Offensive Coordinator) Ben Johnson, who continues to push all the right buttons for these felines. It was considered a surprise that Johnson opted to remain in Detroit after being arguably the hottest commodity in hiring circles, but the Lions are all the better for it; his unit ranks first in points scored (32.1), second in total offense (394.8), fourth in both passing yards (243.7) and rushing yards (151.0), fourth on third down (45.8%), and sixth in the red zone (67.3%). This really is one of the most complete attacks that we have seen in quite a while, able to shred opposing defenses in a variety of ways. Behind an elite offensive line, the tandem of (Tailbacks) Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are just as likely to pummel you between the tackles as they are to turn the corner and rip off a 40-yard run downfield, combining for TWENTY-TWO rushing touchdowns. And if bullying opponents on the ground isn’t enough, they can air it out too, with no shortage of targets at the disposal of (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff, who has been quite the story since arriving in Detroit. After infamously being discarded by the Rams in a blockbuster trade that included a pair of first round picks to the Motor City, the 2016 number one overall pick was at a low point in his career, only to find redemption and resurrection with a franchise that was in dire need of those same things. Four years later and he has emerged as an MVP candidate of his own, propelling the Lions to their first division title and NFC Championship Game appearance in forty years; Goff (pictured below) has completed a career-high 72.4% of his throws for 3,265 yards on 7.65 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to ten interceptions, posting a QBR of 63.7 along the way. When we last saw these Lions, they swept the season series with their bitter rival, the Packers in last Thursday’s 34-31 victory, which saw Campbell roll the dice over and over again, converting on all but one of his FIVE attempts on fourth down. After Green Bay drew level at 31-31 with 3:38 left to play, the hosts quickly moved into enemy territory as Goff completed six consecutive passes to get to 21-yard line, where they were met with a fourth-and-one with forty-three seconds remaining. Rather than kick a contentious field goal and leave any time for a potential comeback, Campbell opted to put his adversaries to the sword, as Montgomery, who was stopped for no gain on the previous play, rushed off right tackle for seven yards to run the clock down to its end, before (young Kicker) Jake Bates drilled the 35-yarder to end the affair altogether. When it was all said and done, the Lions statistically dominated this one, folks, outgaining the visitors 391-298 in total yards, 27-17 in first downs, and 283-206 through the air, while possessing the ball for a commanding 36:06 of game time. However, the Packers may have converted only one third down, but they had only five to convert, which given their total of points should inform you that they had little trouble moving downfield and breaching the end zone. Given all of those injuries on defense, this may be the approach that Campbell will have to utilize moving forward, as his punishing ground game shortened the contest and kept the opposing offense off the field. Goff completed 32-of-41 passes for 283 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, while Montgomery and Gibbs amassed eighty-four and seventy-three yards from scrimmage respectively, with each scoring a touchdown of their own. The victory marked Detroit’s seventh by seven points or less, including their fourth by four or fewer points, and second such outcome in a row.
From a betting perspective, the Lions may be a sterling 12-1 straight-up this season, but they have also been one of the most rewarding sides in the NFL against the spread (9-3-1), parlaying to a net profit of 5.18 units, which is good business. This is a team that hasn’t suffered back-to-back non-covers since early in the 2022 campaign, covering nine of their first eleven games thus far, before going 0-1-1 over the last two weeks. Under the leadership of Campbell, this is a franchise that has been nothing short of stellar versus the spread (46-19-2) since he arrived in the Motor City back in 2021, which equates to a win percentage of .686! The big fella is 23-9-1 ATS at Ford Field, 22-10-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 24-10-1 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 31-13 ATS versus non-division opponents. Furthermore, his troops are 25-11-1 ATS against foes above .500, while covering eleven of their last thirteen games versus teams with a win percentage above .666. Looking at this particular matchup, these franchises have both been around for quite some time, though have only met on the gridiron on twelve occasions, with Detroit trailing the all-time series 7-4-1 SU. Despite winning just one of the last six meetings dating back to 1997, the cats have covered each of the last two, including that aforementioned 28-25 Thanksgiving affair from two years ago. In a back-and-forth tilt in which Campbell & Co trailed for most of the afternoon, the hosts were largely done in by self-inflicted wounds, including a lost fumble on their third possession, followed by a safety later in the third quarter, and a missed 29-yard field goal attempt on the ensuing drive. With all that said, the game still stood tied at 25-25 with twenty-three seconds remaining, but Buffalo nonetheless managed to swiftly navigate their way into field goal range for the winning kick. Goff put in a strong showing with 240 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 23-of-37 passing, hooking up frequently with (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown for nine receptions, 122 yards, and one of those scores. Speaking of Goff, he is 38-27-1 ATS at home, 51-34-1 ATS as a favorite, 22-23-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SU victories, 52-37 ATS versus non-division opposition. However, he has crossed paths with the Bills on just two occasions, losing both, though it was hardly his fault in completing 66.7% of his throws for an average of 280.5 yards on 7.84 net yards per attempt, with five total touchdowns and one lone interception. The public appears to remember that previous matchup with Buffalo, as only 25% of all wagers placed upon today’s spread are favoring the felines, while a larger minority share (40%) of the total sum of money changing hands has followed suit. On the injury front, the growing residency on injured reserve has become alarming for Campbell and his staff, as EIGHTEEN players are currently occupying a spot on that dreaded list, including many of the starters that we named earlier. Furthermore, that decimated defensive front must be handled with care, as (Defensive Tackle) D.J. Reeder (shoulder) and (Defensive End) Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring) were both limited throughout the week of practice with respective maladies and have thus been listed as questionable to participate in this potential Super Bowl preview. Looking ahead, the Lions will be made to work for the number one overall seed in the NFC, as they make their annual pilgrimage to Soldier Field to face the struggling Bears next weekend, followed by an NFC Championship Game rematch with the fading 49ers, before meeting the Vikings in what should be a finale ripe with postseason implications.