8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Chargers -2.5, Total: 42.0
Bitter division rivals jockeying for postseason position meet tonight in the City of Angels, as the surging Denver Broncos look to extend their win streak to five games with this trip to SoFi Stadium to battle the Los Angeles Chargers, who are in need of shaking off their ugliest loss of the campaign thus far. After an uneven first season in which he spent much of his time weeding out those who didn’t fit into his vision for the franchise, the fruits of (Head Coach) Sean Payton’s labor have been readily apparent in year two, as the Broncos (9-5, 2nd in AFC West) are on the verge of snapping the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL (8 years). Indeed, there really wasn’t any doubt that the 60-year-old would manage to turn Denver around, particularly given his stellar CV; Payton owns a personal portfolio of 169-109 (.621) over the course of his seventeen seasons with the Saints and the ponies, including nine postseason appearances, seven division titles, and a Lombardi Trophy from Super Bowl XLIV. So, how has he managed to set things right in Mile High, you ask? Well, there have been two very notable changes in direction for the Broncos, with the first being at quarterback. Payton spent much of his first year with the team seemingly at odds with (former QB) Russell Wilson, who apart from performing well below his previous standards, cost the team a wealth of assets and money to acquire, ultimately leading to a parting of ways between the two parties as the franchise took one of the largest cap hits in NFL history to hasten his exit ($87 million!). In turn, Payton opted to find the solution in a draft that was ripe with premium talent at that position, selecting (Oregon product) Bo Nix twelfth overall last Spring. Possessing a wealth of experience as a 5-year starter at two different schools, the 24-year-old has grown into the job over the course of the campaign, completing 63.6% of his throws for an average of 212.3 yards on 5.76 net yards per attempt, with twenty touchdowns in comparison to eleven interceptions, a QBR of 52.2 and three fourth quarter comebacks to boot, while also proving to be a mobile weapon out of the pocket with 327 rushing yards and four more scores. Over the past seven outings, the field has really opened up for Nix (pictured below), who begun to air it out more often with 246.6 yards on an improved 6.65 net yards per pass, fifteen touchdowns and six picks. The other factor in the Broncos’ success has been the rapid growth of a stingy young defense that has yielded the fewest points in the league (17.6). It’s ironic that (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph, who spent two seasons as the team’s head coach from 2017 to 2018, returned to ignite this renaissance in the rocky mountains, but his work in retooling this youthful group has been commendable. Hell, this unit even scores touchdowns, with five on the season, including three in the last two games. (All-Pro Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best in the business with four interceptions, eleven deflected passes, and a score to his name, while (third-year Linebacker) Nik Bonitto has developed into a legitimate playmaker with 11.5 sacks, fourteen tackles for loss, a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception return to the house in last weekend’s 31-13 rally over the Colts. Believe it or not, the Broncos looked like they were on the verge of falling behind big in this one, trailing 13-7 before Indianapolis committed a major gaffe when Jonathan Taylor dropped the football short what should have been a long touchdown run for a touchback. From there, the hosts scored the final twenty-four points of the day, as Bonitto’s pick-six was bookended by touchdown passes courtesy of Nix. When it was all said and done, Denver may have been outgained 310-193 in total yards, but they reaped the benefits of FIVE takeaways, which continuously put them advantageous field position. Granted, they turned it over three times themselves, but when you have a defense that can make these kinds of plays, you’re never truly out of contention. Nix went 20-of-33 for 130 yards with three touchdowns and interceptions apiece, while Surtain and (veteran Safety) Brandon Jones each logged an interception.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos are 9-5 straight-up thus far, but they have been one of the most rewarding teams against the spread (11-3), parlaying to a net profit of 7.0 units, which is the most in the NFL. This is a team that has yet to suffer back-to-back losses versus the spread this season, while riding a streak of FIVE consecutive covers coming into tonight’s contest. Under the leadership of Payton, this is a franchise that is 7-13-1 ATS since he arrived in 2023, including 8-5 ATS away from Mile High, 7-8 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 6-5 ATS when harboring revenge, 10-7 ATS following a SU win, and 6-4 ATS versus their fellow residents in the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops are 2-5 ATS as an underdog versus an opponent coming off a non-division affair, 6-6 ATS as a road dog, and 5-13 ATS in division games following a SU victory, with all three trends proving relevant tonight. Dating back to 1990, the horses are 13-10 ATS on Thursday nights, including 3-4 as a road dog. Looking at this particular matchup, the Broncos own a commanding 73-56-1 lead in the all-time series between these clubs, including six victories in the last ten meetings, three of which coming in the last four (2-2 ATS). However, their most recent encounter, a 23-16 defeat at Empower Field, undoubtedly left a sour taste in their mouths. Nix & Co fell behind 23-0 thanks to anemic start; the hosts amassed just sixty-three yards of offense through the first three quarters of action, as the QB was intercepted on his opening drive of the afternoon, while (veteran Tailback) Javonte Williams lost a fumble at midfield shortly before halftime, with each turnover leading directly to Chargers points. With that being said, Denver found their rhythm in the fourth period, running off sixteen unanswered points, as Nix found (Rookie Wideout) Troy Franklin and (veteran Receiver) Courtland Sutton for touchdowns on back-to-back possessions, before a 40-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Will Lutz cut the deficit to six points. Unfortunately, the home side couldn’t recover the ensuing onside kick, effectively ending the game. 253 of their 316 total yards came on those final three drives, with Nix completing 19-of-33 passes for 216 yards, those two scores and the pick, while making good use of his legs with another sixty-one rushing yards on six carries. Winners of six out of eight contests since that tilt, the public is backing the ponies big time in this one, folks, with approximately 76% of all wagers upon tonight’s spread wearing orange, while a slightly smaller share of all the money being wagered (72%) has followed suit. On the injury front, all eyes are currently on that stellar Secondary in Denver, with potentially two starters in question to participate in this key division clash. The first is none other than Surtain, who left last weekend’s win over the Colts what is being described as a minor ankle sprain, while (fellow Cornerback) Riley Moss, who has been sidelined for three weeks with sprained MCL is also listed as questionable to make his return to the field. Looking ahead, it won’t get any easier for the Broncos in the final two weeks of the regular season, as they travel to Southern Ohio to battle the high-flying Bengals before returning to Mile High for a visit from the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs.
Meanwhile, as their division rivals have been building momentum, the Chargers (8-6, 3rd in AFC West) have been heading in the opposite direction, suffering three losses in their last four games. Now, Los Angeles doesn’t appear to be in danger of losing their grip on a wild card, but it has been readily apparent to everyone that they aren’t playing their best football at a time when it would behoove them to do so. So, what in the name of Dan Fouts’ beard has happened to the lightning bolts, you ask? Well, this is a franchise that is undergoing a MAJOR culture reset at the hands of (Head Coach) Jim Harbaugh, who makes his grand return to the NFL after spending the last decade enjoying a wealth of collegiate success at his alma mater, leading Michigan to a national championship last January. It really has been a remarkable metamorphosis for a team that has routinely proven to be lesser than the total sum of their parts, oftentimes finding ways to lose in the most miraculous fashion. It’s almost as if Harbaugh has stripped them down to their barebones and rebuilt them from the trenches outward, with a focus on bolstering the offensive and defensive lines. After all, we all know what the 60-year-old wants to do: run the ball and stop the other team from doing so, while limiting your mistakes in the process. With that in mind, the Chargers sit tied with the Broncos for the fewest points relinquished thus far (17.6), while committing the second-fewest turnovers thus far (8), parlaying to a healthy differential of +11 (4th Overall). While initially thought to be an odd approach for an offense led by (prolific young Quarterback) Justin Herbert, the former Pro-Bowler has gradually assimilated into the system; after entering the campaign with the most passing yards ever by a QB in his first four seasons (17,223), it turns out that less has been more for Herbert (pictured below alongside Harbaugh), who has completed 63.9% of his throws for an average of 211.4 yards per game on 6.28 net yards per attempt, with sixteen touchdowns opposed to just two interceptions. However, a promising 7-3 start built off the broken bodies of some of the worst teams in the league has turned against them of late, as tougher competition as begun to expose the flaws in the team. Case in point: of those seven victories, only one came against an opponent currently north of .500, with the defense shipping a scant 13.0 points per game in those affairs. Over their last three losses, which have come against the likes of Baltimore, Kansas City, and most recently Tampa Bay, they have been torched for 29.7 points per contest, including a whopping FORTY in last weekend’s drubbing at the hands of the Bucs. Simply put, this one was about as one-sided as they get, folks; the visitors embarrassed the bolts in a slew of categories, including total yards (506-206), rushing yards (223-32), passing yards (288-199), first downs (24-14), and time of possession (36:52), while Herbert & Co failed to convert a single third down on the day. After scoring seventeen points on their first three drives, Los Angeles could muster just ninety-one yards the rest of the way, with an interception, back-to-back turnovers on downs, and a fumble ending their final four possessions. Conversely, the visitors scored on NINE of their twelve drives of the afternoon, while Herbert was eventually forced to leave after tweaking his ankle. The 26-year-old connected on 21-of-33 attempts for just 195 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, his first thrown since the second game of the season.
From a betting perspective, the Chargers are also 8-5 straight-up thus far and have been a rewarding play against the spread to boot (9-4-1), parlaying to net profit of 4.18 units, making tonight’s matchup a clash between two of the most bankable teams in the league. This is a team that has really hit its stride in that regard over the last few months, covering seven of their last ten outings, while avoiding back-to-back losses versus the spread all season, though it should be noted that they are in danger of doing just that after last weekend’s ugly loss at home to the Buccaneers. Under Harbaugh’s guidance, Los Angeles is 4-2-1 ATS at SoFi Stadium, a commanding 8-2 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-1-1 ATS when coming off a SU defeat, and 3-0-1 ATS versus their neighbors in the AFC West. Furthermore, the lightning bolts have covered one of their last nine outings as home favorites after shipping 35+ points in the previous game are 1-4-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back home contests. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 10-6 all-time on Thursday nights, including 3-1 as a home favorite, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, we already covered the Chargers deficit in the all-time series, which also reaches to their recent form against the Broncos, as that aforementioned 23-16 victory in Mile High snapped a three-game losing streak against their longtime division rivals. At this point, Los Angeles was humming like a machine under Harbaugh, dominating the first three quarters of that affair with a 23-0 lead and a 321-63 advantage in total yards. However, just twenty-six yards over their final three possessions as the hosts rallied back with sixteen unanswered points before the visiting side managed to recover an onside kick end the affair altogether. This win had all the hallmarks of a Harbaugh triumph, with 128 rushing yards on thirty-eight carries allowing them to control time of possession (37:23), while minimizing mistakes and taking advantage of those made by the opponent, as (young Cornerback) Elijah Molden snared an interception on the opening drive, while (veteran Defensive Tackle) Teair Tart recovered a fumble forced by (8-time Pro-Bowler) Khalil Mack. Herbert spread the wealth to nine different targets, completing 21-of-34 passes for 237 yards and a 38-yard catch and run to (Rookie Tailback) Kimani Videl, while (veteran Tailback) J.K. Dobbins rushed for ninety-six yards and a score of his own on twenty-five attempts. Getting back to Herbert, the veteran QB is 18-9-1 ATS as a starter at home, 25-22 ATS as a favorite (14-13 ATS as a home favorite), 11-4 ATS following back-to-back SU losses, and 14-9-1 ATS against division opponents. Over the course of his career, he is 4-4 in eight career meetings with Denver, completing 64.8% of his throws for an average of 239.4 yards per on 6.07 net yards per attempt, with eleven touchdowns opposed to six interceptions. On the injury front, Harbaugh has twelve different languishing on injured reserve, including Dobbins (knee) and (young Defensive Back) Asante Samuel Jr. (shoulder). As for those whose status is hanging in the balance in this short week, Herbert (ankle), Molden (knee), (veteran Linebacker) Denzel Perryman (groin), (Sophomore Receiver) Quentin Johnston (ankle), and (Rookie Cornerback) Cam Hart (concussion) are listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Chargers will finish the rest of their schedule on the road against less than stellar competition, traveling to Foxborough next weekend to battle the Patriots before making their annual pilgrimage to Sin City to face the Raiders in the finale.