8:00 PM EST, ABC/ESPN – Spread: Notre Dame -7.5, Total: 50.5
It’s Bloomington versus South Bend in a juicy renewal of acquaintances between state rivals, as the (No. 8) Indiana Hoosiers look to keep their magical campaign alive at (No. 5) Notre Dame, with the Irish keen on taking care of business in this first round affair of the College Football Playoff. If you’re searching for a favorite to win Coach of the Year honors, then look no further than Curt Cignetti at Indiana (11-1, 8-1 in BIG 10), where the 63-year-old has ignited a football renaissance at a program that has rarely experienced such a thing. Seriously, folks, the Hoosiers have been playing football since 1899, never reaching double-digits in victories until the arrival of Cignetti (pictured below), with this Fall marking only the fourth winning season that the school has had on the gridiron in THIRTY years. Something of a late bloomer, Cignetti had to wait until he was 58 years old before he got a shot as a head coach, taking over James Madison in 2019, though it was well worth the wait, as he led the Dukes to a 52-10 record over his six seasons in Harrisonburg. In his first year, he improved them by seven games and took them all the way to the FCS Championship Game, followed by a share of the Sun Belt Title after the program made the leap to the FBS in 2022 and an outright league championship a year later. Clearly, this guy knows how to coach, which is something that the faithful in Bloomington have found out firsthand; under his predecessor, IU ranked 105th in the FBS in scoring (22.2) on 332.8 total yards with a turnover differential of -5, while shipping 29.9 points per game (101st in FBS) on 394.2 total yards, equating to a net loss of 0.8 yards per play. Twelve months later, Indiana has fielded the second-highest scoring attack in the country (43.3) on 438.8 total yards with a transformative turnover differential of +15, while relinquishing just 14.7 points (6th in FBS) on 244.8 total yards, equating to a +2.6-yard advantage per play. So, how has Cignetti pulled off this turnaround, you ask? Well, he essentially brought his entire coaching staff with him over from JMU, while making good use of the transfer portal with a wealth of imported talent, including a number of his former players to boot, such as (Tailbacks) Ty Son Lawton and Kaelon Black, (Tight End) Zach Horton, (Receiver) Elijah Sarratt, (Linebackers) Aidan Fisher and Jailin Fisher, (Cornerback) D’Angelo Ponds, and (Edge-Rusher) Mikail Kamara, who have all been key contributors to their success. Coupled with a firm base of returning starters (21 in total, including 42 lettermen) along with a very reasonable schedule, certainly by BIG 10 standards, and the ingredients for success were there. Some may be critical of said schedule, with their only ranked opponent being (No. 6) Ohio State, which ended in a 38-15 defeat, but the CFP Committee clearly thought enough of Cignetti & Co to include them in the 12-team field. When we last saw Indiana, they completely annihilated another instate rival, Purdue, in a 66-0 shutout that immediately led to the Boilermakers firing their head coach. Statistical dominance is the only way to describe this one, folks, as the Hoosiers outgained the visitors 582-67 in total yards, 233-13 on the ground, and 349-54 through the air, racking up thirty first downs to their opponent’s five, while their defense logged FIVE takeaways. (Senior Quarterback) Kurtis Rourke has been excellent since transferring from Ohio, completing 23-of-31 passes in this finale for 349 yards and a career-high SIX touchdowns, while (Senior Tailbacks) Justice Ellison and the aforementioned Lawton combined for 110 rushing yards with a score apiece, with Sarratt hauling in eight receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns.
From a betting perspective, Indiana finished the regular season 11-1 straight-up, but were also one of the most rewarding schools in the country against the spread (9-3), parlaying to a healthy net profit of 5.18 units. They won and covered EIGHT games in a row at one point, before failing to cover back-to-back contests against BIG 10 bluebloods Michigan (-14.5) and Ohio State (+10.5), though had little trouble beating the spread in last weekend’s evisceration of Purdue (-29.5). In fact, the Hoosiers were favored in all but one of their games this Fall (11 times!), which supports the bias regarding the ease of their schedule, marking the first time in decades that that has been the case. As an FBS head coach, Cignetti is a stellar 24-11 versus the spread, though is 2-2 when receiving points away from home, and 13-6 against non-conference opposition. IU has covered seven outings in a row after rushing for 200+ yards, which is the case tonight, while posting a 7-3 record ATS in their last ten trips away from Bloomington. Furthermore, they have covered NINE of their last ten games following a SU conference home victory, along six out of seven as road underdogs of four or more points after a cover, which is also the case tonight. However, Cignetti’s troops are 1-7 ATS with rest versus a foe coming off a SU win. It should also be noted that Indiana has lost THIRTEEN consecutive encounters against ranked opponents. Looking at this particular matchup, these two schools may be located close to each other geographically, but it has been very rare for them to cross paths on the gridiron, with only twenty-five all-time meetings, including only one taking place over the last SIXTY-FIVE years. Tonight’s playoff is the first time that Indiana has met Notre Dame since 1991, with the Hoosiers’ last victory coming back in 1950! In fact, IU has beaten ND just three times, never in South Bend, while getting outscored by 141 points over their last six affairs. With that being said, the public don’t appear to be swayed by the one-sided history between these programs, as approximately 71% of all wagers placed upon the spread are backing Indiana, while a smaller percentage of the overall money being wagered (65%) has followed suit. On the injury front, Cignetti will be without (Sophomore Guard) Drew Evans for the rest of the season due to an undisclosed malady. Looking ahead, a victory tonight will send Indiana to Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium where (No. 2) Georgia awaits in the Sugar Bowl, marking the first-ever meeting between the two programs.
Meanwhile, if you are going to suffer a defeat, even one to an unranked MAC opponent, it is far more advantageous to do so in the early stages of the campaign, which has been to the benefit of Notre Dame (11-1, Ind). The Fighting Irish return to the Playoff after a 3-year drought, slowly building a head of steam for themselves after working their way through a slow start. The golden-domers gutted their way through a tough 23-13 affair at (No. 20) Texas A&M in the opener, only to get embarrassed at home a week later against Northern Illinois in a stunning 16-14 upset. However, since that low point, ND has figured things out, scoring no fewer than thirty-one points in all but one of their final ten contests, averaging 44.1 points on a healthy 441.3 total yards with a turnover differential of +16. Indeed, (Head Coach) Marcus Freeman has found a formula for success in this, his third season as the Irish’s leading man: dip into the portal to find an experienced quarterback, while building up the offensive and defensive lines. A year after importing one ACC QB, Riley Leonard arrived from Duke, along with (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Denbrock (via LSU) to revamp the attack. Leonard (pictured below alongside Freeman) started twenty games for the Blue Devils between 2021 and 2023, winning thirteen of them along the way, while Denbrock oversaw the nation’s top-ranked attack in terms of yards per play last Fall in Baton Rouge. Again, it wasn’t instant success for this tandem, but it has been a successful marriage on the whole of the campaign; Notre Dame rank third in the country in points scored (39.8) on a robust 421.3 total yards, including 224.8 yards on the ground, where Leonard has contributed with a career-high 721 rushing yards and fourteen scores, both of which rank second on the team. He’s also been as advertised as a passer, completing an efficient 66.2% of his throws with sixteen touchdowns opposed to five interceptions. Injuries may have slowed him early this Fall (he didn’t throw a TD in his first 3 games), but he eventually found a solid balance between running and throwing the ball; since that loss to NIU, the senior has completed 67.5% of his throws for 177.1 yards on 7.6 yards per attempt, with sixteen scores and three picks, while becoming much more of a factor on the ground in rushing for another 64.2 yards and thirteen more touchdowns. Furthermore, (Sophomore Tailbacks) Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been effective when carrying the rock too, with the former leading the team in yards (949) and scores (15), while the latter has added 651 yards, seven touchdowns, and a stellar 7.3 yards per carry to boot. Coupled with a veteran defense that returned nine starters en route to shipping just 13.6 points (3rd in FBS) on 296.8 total yards, and you have a team that is fully capable of bullying their way to the next round of this playoff. The Irish toppled four different ranked opponents this season, though two of which were service academies. When we last saw them, Freeman’s troops defeated (longtime rival) USC for the fifth time in six years, leaving the Coliseum with a 49-35 victory. This one was actually a lot closer than that final score would lead you to believe, folks, as the Trojans outgained the Irish 557-436 in total yardage, rushed for 197 yards, and forced a pair of turnovers on the night. However, the visitors logged a pair of takeaways of their own, and they made theirs count. Leading 35-28 with 3:56 left to play and Southern Cal threatening in the red zone, (Sophomore Cornerback) Christian Gray returned an interception NINETY-NINE yards to the house to stretch the lead to fourteen points. Just over two minutes later, (Senior Safety) Xavier Watts did his teammate one better with a 100-yard pick-6 to put the game on ice. This is a defense that has found their opponent’s end zone on SIX occasions thus far, with Watts getting his hand on FIVE interceptions this year. Getting back to Saturday’s tilt, the Irish rushed for 258 yards on thirty-eight attempts, with all that yardage coming from the triumvirate of Leonard, Love, and Price, all three of which scoring a touchdown. Leonard also racked up 155 yards, two touchdowns and a pick on 17-of-22 passing, with (Senior Tight End) Mitchell Evans hauling in one of the scores along with five catches for fifty-nine yards.
From a betting perspective, Notre Dame finished the regular season at 11-1 straight-up, but were almost as rewarding against the spread (10-2), parlaying to a nice payout of 7.09 units. After splitting their first four games of the campaign versus the spread, this is the hottest team entering the Playoff in that regard, covering each of their last EIGHT contests. Under the direction of Freeman, this is a program that is 26-12-1 ATS since his promotion in 2022, including 10-7 ATS at home in South Bend, 9-7 ATS as a home favorite, 22-10 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 6-0 ATS with rest, and 18-8 ATS following a SU victory. It is also worth noting that the Irish are 62-1 SU over the last seven seasons when outgaining their opponent in total yards. Furthermore, ND have covered SIX straight outings against BIG 10 foes, including Purdue earlier this season (66-7), though it should also be noted that the Boilermakers were absolutely dreadful, winning just one game all year. They have also covered EIGHT tilts in a row against opponents coming off a bye, which is obviously the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, Notre Dame have dominated this rivalry with Indiana (22-3 SU), even if they’ve met only once since 1959. The Irish have also NEVER lost to the Hoosiers at home in thirteen meetings, and are 7-1 SU when they are ranked, while IU has NEVER been ranked on their end in this series. As impressive as that all sounds, the public appears to believe that Freeman & Co are laying too many points in this one, as roughly 29% of all wagers placed up the spread are backing the golden-domers, though a larger share of the money (35%) is telling a different story. On the injury front, the aforementioned Love left last weekend’s game with a limp and is thus listed as questionable for tonight’s first-round matchup. (Senior Defensive Tackle) Howard Cross III has missed the last three games with a sprained ankle and is also listed as questionable to participate in this instate clash. Looking ahead, if Notre Dame is victorious tonight, then they will be headed to the Sugar Bowl to meet Georgia, whom they have NEVER beaten in three all-time encounters dating back to 1980, in which they were bested in that same postseason spectacle, 17-10, which saw the Bulldogs secure the program’s first-ever national championship.