12:00 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Penn State -9, Total: 53.5
The first round of the College Football Playoff marches on, as the high-powered (No. 10) SMU Mustangs travel to Happy Valley to battle the (No. 4) Penn State Nittany Lions in a battle of two teams keen to bounce back after coming up short in their respective conference title games. It may have been their first year in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but you wouldn’t have known that judging by how SMU (11-2, 8-0 in ACC) performed this Fall, entering last weekend’s title game unbeaten in league play. Indeed, the Mustangs had the opportunity to achieve rare back-to-back conference titles in two different conferences, though were ultimately undone by their own mistakes in last weekend’s entertaining 34-31 loss to (No. 13) Clemson. In his third year in Dallas, (Head Coach) Rhett Lashlee has done a tremendous job of preparing the ponies for this leap in competition. In truth, their growth began last Fall, in which the roster improved dramatically on the defensive side of the football; in 2022, this unit shipped 33.8 points per game (119th in FBS) on an average of 431.0 total yards, only to turn around and relegate opponents to 17.8 points (11th in FBS) on 304.1 total yards, flipping the turnover differential from -2 to +3 along the way. Lashlee was advised prior to transitioning to the ACC that he get bigger and more athletic in the trenches, which is precisely what he and his coaching staff have done; this Fall, Southern Methodist allowed 20.8 points (28th in FBS) on 326.1 total yards, while logging nearly a hundred tackles for loss (98), forty sacks, and twenty-one takeaways, which is more than enough help for an offense that was one of the most prolific in the country. A longtime disciple of Gus Malzahn, Lashlee is all about high-volume offense, with SMU capable of overwhelming opponents when they settle into their hurry-up attack. However, this unit struggled to find its rhythm early in the season, as Lashlee made the difficult decision to move on from the highly-touted (Junior Quarterback) Preston Stone, who transferred from Oklahoma a few years back, only to see each of his first two campaigns end prematurely due to injury. It was clear through the first three games that Stone simply wasn’t right, which led Lashlee to pass the proverbial baton to (Redshirt Sophomore) Kevin Jennings, who took the job and hasn’t looked back. After replacing his teammate midway through their lone defeat of the regular season (18-15 vs BYU), Jennings (pictured below) completed an efficient 68.4% of his throws for 267.1 yards on a healthy 9.8 yads per attempt, with eighteen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while rushing for another 27.5 yards and three more scores during a 9-game win streak. During this stretch, the overall attack flourished, posting 40.7 points per contest on 448.6 total yards, logging 250+ passing yards in all but one outing. However, if there is one criticism of this group, it is that they can sometimes play a little too fast and too loose for their own good, evidenced by their twenty-one turnovers on the season, equating to an even differential. Even during that aforementioned win streak this was an issue, as Lashlee’s troops turned the ball over fourteen times, including NINE in a two-game run against Stanford (40-10) and Duke (28-27). This proved to be their Achilles heel in last weekend’s loss to Clemson, in which they found themselves trailing 21-7 after the first quarter due to self-inflicted wounds. Frist, Jennings was sacked and lost possession of the pigskin on the opening drive of the night, before his next drive concluded with a three-and-out. Then, following a 10-play, 75-yard drive culminating in a 24-yard touchdown run from the QB, he gets picked off on the following possession. Granted, the Tigers would go on to miss the ensuing field goal attempt, but so would the Mustangs when they got the ball back. The ponies trailed 31-14 before they got it going in the final stanza, scoring seventeen unanswered points to tie the affair at 31-31 with just sixteen seconds to play. Unfortunately, that was enough time for Clemson, who returned the kickoff SIXTY-ONE yards, eventually placing themselves in field goal range, drilling the walk-off 56-yarder to punch their ticket to the Playoff. Stunned, SMU met defeat despite outgaining their opponent in total yardage (458-326), rushing yards (154-64), and first downs (28-20), but simply had too many possessions end without points. Jennings accounted for 339 total yards and four touchdowns, while (Senior Tailback) Brashard Smith rushed for 113 yards on twenty-four carries, with (Senior Receiver) Roderick Daniels Jr. hauling in eight catches for ninety-seven yards and the 4-yard touchdown to draw level.
From a betting perspective, SMU may have finished the season 11-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (8-5), parlaying to modest net profit of 2.27 units. This is a team that hasn’t failed to cover consecutive contests in twenty-one games, making plenty of headway with a 4-game win streak versus the spread between September and October. Under the leadership of Lashlee, this is a program that is 21-19 ATS since he arrived back in 2022, including 9-10 ATS away from Dallas, 8-3 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 2-5 ATS as a road underdog, 1-2 with rest, 2-5 ATS when coming off a SU loss, and 4-8 ATS versus non-conference opposition. Furthermore, the Mustangs have covered just once in seven opportunities following a SUATS defeat under his watch. With that being said, the ponies have covered seven straight tilts after failing to do so and are 5-1 ATS in their past six outings after posting over 450 total yards of offense. Looking at this particular matchup, this is only the third all-time meeting between these programs, with Southern Methodist winless against Penn State (0-1-1 SU). This is also the first time that they have crossed paths since 1978, a 26-21 defeat at Happy Valley. Over the past ten years, SMU has faced just TWO BIG 10 opponents, losing both (Michigan and Maryland), with the most recent be a 34-27 loss at the Terps in Lashlee’s first year on the job. On the injury front, the Receiving Corps has been thinned for the Mustangs, who are without the services of (Senior Wideout) Jake Bailey and (Junior Tight End) R.J Maryland, who are both out for the rest of the season for knee maladies, while (Sophomore Cornerback) A.J. Davis has missed the last two contests due to the effects of a concussion and is listed as questionable to participate in this afternoon’s affair. Looking ahead, if SMU prove victorious tonight, then they will be galloping off to Glendale to face (No. 9) Boise State in the CFP Quarterfinals, marking the first meeting between programs since 2004 and their third all-time encounter.
Meanwhile, for the first time since its inception in 2014, Penn State (11-2, 8-1 in BIG 10) finally find themselves participating in the Playoff. Never mind that it took massive reformation to the format of the tournament for the Nittany Lions to get into this particular dance, for it must be vindicating for (Head Coach) James Franklin to reach this point given that his tenure in Happy Valley has long been marred by his inability to take down the elite teams placed in front him. That has been quite a problem in a conference such as the BIG 10, which in addition to traditional powerhouses such as Michigan and Ohio State, now count the nation’s top-ranked team, Oregon, among its residents. During his eleven years with the program, Franklin is a stellar 99-41 (.707) against all opponents, including six seasons of 10+ wins, reaching the top-8 of the rankings in nine successive campaigns, though nonetheless had come just short of advancing to the Playoff until this year. Again, it boils down to the inability to beat the best; Franklin is 14-27 (.341) versus ranked opponents since 2014, including 3-20 (.130) against top-10 foes, with a 4-17 (.190) ledger against the Wolverines and Buckeyes (only one of those wins came against a top-10 adversary). Unfortunately, it has been more of the same this Fall, with the Lions’ lone two losses coming opposite of Ohio State (20-13) and most recently Oregon (45-37) in last weekend’s conference championship game, with those schools coincidentally ranked fourth and first overall. So, what gives, you ask? Well, despite struggling offensively at home against the Buckeyes (270 total yards), they gashed the Ducks for 518 yards last Saturday, which leads us to believe that has more to do with their defense, which has oftentimes failed to thwart elite opposition. In the former matchup, they managed to keep things close thanks to a pair of takeaways, though OSU still hung 358 yards on (first-year Defensive Coordinators) Tom Allen’s troops, including 176 of the rushing variety. Against UO, they gave up a season-high 466 yards of offense, including 288 through the air and failed to log a takeaway. Keep in mind that this unit allowed just 16.4 points (8th in FBS) on a mere 282.1 total yards, equating to 4.7 yards per play during season as a whole. There is also the issue that their own offense hasn’t been able to threaten their opponents so much through the air due to a decimated crop of receivers (more on that in a bit), with Franklin and (new Offensive Coordinator) Andy Kotelnicki resorting to the ground game to overpower other teams. Penn State churned out 202.2 yards per game in 2024, with four different players logging over 240 rushing yards, including (Redshirt Sophomore Quarterback) Drew Allar with 279 yards and six scores. Granted, the concern coming into this season was the development of Allar (pictured below) and if he would be able to threaten opposing defenses downfield with his big arm. Well, even with limited options in the passing game, he responded in kind, raising his yards per attempt from a mediocre 6.8 last year to a far more palatable 8.9 this Fall. Furthermore, he’s completing nearly 10.0% more of his passes, despite attempting fewer per game. At 6’5″ 241 pounds, this kid has loads of potential, which was apparent in that aforementioned showing against Oregon; sure, he tossed a pair of interceptions, but Allar continued to rally his side back from a large deficit, completing 20-of-39 passes for 226 yards and three touchdowns, racking up 11.3 yards per completion, while rushing for another fifty-four yards and one more score on five carries. Kotelnicki is known for being a creative playcaller and his use of his QB in the run game is growing, which in turn has begun to open things up downfield. The Nittany Lions pummeled the Ducks in the trenches with 292 rushing yards on thirty-five carries, with (Junior Tailbacks) Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combining for 229 yards themselves, each logging 100+ yards against a run defense that shipped 126.1 yards per game this year.
From a betting perspective, Penn State concluded the season 11-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been as close to rewarding against the spread (6-7), parlaying to a net loss of 1.55 units. This is a team that has covered back-to-back games just once this calendar year, though they had gone 4-2 versus the spread in their final six outings prior to last weekend’s defeat against Oregon (+3). Under the direction of Franklin, this is a program that is 76-61-3 ATS since his arrival back in 2014, including 39-32 ATS at Beaver Stadium, 61-41 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 35-24-3 ATS as a home favorite, 12-10 ATS with rest, 11023 ATS when coming off a SU defeat, and 23-14 ATS versus non-conference opposition. The Nittany Lions are unbeaten ATS in their last seven games (6-0-1) after shipping more than forty points, though have covered just one of their last seven tilts against non-conference foes after a game in which they allowed 35+ points, with both trends relevant this afternoon. As we touched upon earlier, today’s first-round affair with SMU marks only the third all-time meetings between these schools on the gridiron and their first in over four decades. PSU has never lost to the ponies. On the injury front, Franklin has had a lot of injuries in the Receiving Corps that has really decimated his depth in that area all season, while (Redshirt Freshman Tackle) Anthony Donkoh, who started the first eleven games on the right flank, is likely to miss the rest of the campaign with an undisclosed malady suffered in a narrow win over Minnesota three weeks ago. The defense could be without a pair of starters as well, as (Senior Defensive Tackle) Alonzo Ford and (Sophomore Cornerback) Elliott Washington II are at risk, with the former missing the last two games due to an unknown lower-body issue, while the latter left the loss against the Ducks with an undisclosed ailment of his own. Looking ahead, a victory tonight for Penn State will see them headed to State Farm Stadium to battle Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, marking the first-ever meeting between programs.