4:00 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Texas -11.0, Total: 51.5
The 2024 College Football Playoff marches on with this first round matchup featuring a pair of teams separated by different shades of orange, as the (No. 16) Clemson Tigers look to make the most of their late qualification to the big dance, while the (No. 3) Texas Longhorns look to simply take care of business at Darrell K Royal Stadium. It hasn’t been very often that (Head Coach) Dabo Swinney has been able to sell his troops that it is us against the world and that everyone is counting us out, but that has been the case for Clemson (10-3, 7-1 in ACC) this Fall, as they miraculously return to the Playoff after a three-year hiatus. While the rest of the country has been infatuated with the Transfer Portal over the last few years, Swinney has gone about building his program that old-fashioned way, recruiting and developing talent, which have always been his strongest suits. Indeed, the 55-year-old has signed a grand total of THREE players form the portal since its inception in 2019, preferring instead to count upon those who have grown within the program, with fourteen returning starters from last season and a whopping FIFTY-SEVEN lettermen, led by (Junior Quarterback) Cade Klubnik. When Klubnik (pictured below alongside Swinney) arrived from the Lone Star State back in 2022, he eventually deposed one of the most highly touted recruits in the country (D.J. Uiagalelei), before entering the following campaign as the undisputed starter. While he experienced his ups and down in 2023, this Fall has been another story entirely as the 21-year-old has emerged as a playmaker at QB that the team hasn’t had since the days of Trevor Lawrence; Klubnik has been far more aggressive throwing downfield, netting 7.5 yards per attempt and 11.7 yards per completion (a year after posting 6.3 and 9.8 in this categories), with a TD/INT ratio of 33/5, all the while making more use of his athleticism with 458 rushing yards and seven more scores. After losing to (bitter instate rival) South Carolina for the second time in three years (17-14), he and his teammates needed a little help to get into last weekend’s ACC Title Game, though with Miami’s stunning upset at Syracuse, punched their ticket to Charlotte. Needless to say, the Tigers were ready to make the most of their opportunity, pouncing all over (No. 10) SMU with TWENTY-ONE points in the first quarter, all via the arm of Klubnik. The Autin native was in his bag, folks, hitting (Freshman Wideout) Bryant Wesco for two scores, the first a 35-yard strike after the defensive back whiffed on the tackle, before connecting on a 43-yarder later in the period to take a 21-7 lead. Granted, the Mustangs would battle back as Swinney’s troops lost their rhythm, eventually losing the lead altogether as their opponent drew level with just sixteen seconds left in regulation. While the whole of Bank of America Stadium thought overtime was a foregone conclusion, Clemson had other plans, as (Junior Receiver) Adam Randall returned the ensuing kickoff FORTY-ONE yards into enemy territory, eventually setting up (Freshman Kicker) Nolan Hauser, who missed an attempt from forty-four yards, for an opportunity for redemption with a 56-yarder that split the uprights. In the end, MASSIVE takeaways from (Sophomores) Khalil Barnes and T.J. Parker helped fuel the early onslaught, while Klubnik carried the attack with 262 passing yards and four touchdowns on 24-of-41 attempts, along with another twenty-one yards on the ground to make up for the struggles of (Senior Tailback) Phil Mafah, who could muster just 2.2 yards per carry. Westco erupted for eight catches, 143 yards, and those two scores, while (Senior Tight End) Jake Briningstool was responsible for the other two touchdowns and a total of four receptions for twenty-three yards.
From a betting perspective, Clemson may come into this Playoff at 10-3 straight-up, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (6-7), parlaying to a net loss of 1.55 units. After covering four of their first six games of the season, this is a team whose payouts have been few and far between, with just two covers in their final seven outings, including last weekend’s ACC championship triumph over SMU (+2.5). Under the leadership of Swinney, this is a program that is a stellar 122-101-3 versus the spread since his promotion back in 2008, including 43-39 ATS away from home (9-7 ATS as a road dog), 21-15 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 86-72 when coming off a SU victory, and 33-36 ATS against non-conference opposition. Furthermore, the Tigers are 13-3 ATS in their last sixteen outings as a dog for more than four points, though have failed to cover five consecutive contests following a SU win, with both trends relevant this evening. Looking at this particular matchup, this is the first time that these schools will meet on the gridiron. Clemson is 124-173-13 all-time versus SEC opponents, including 2-3 in the Playoff, though it should be noted that two of those defeats came in the National Championship Game. Swinney 14-9 SU and 10-13 ATS against SEC adversaries dating back to 2014, including 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in such matchups over the last four seasons. The last time that his Tigers crossed paths in the postseason versus an SEC opponent was last year’s Gator Bowl, where they outlasted Kentucky in an entertaining 38-35 affair. Trailing for much of the tilt, this one was all about the defense, as (Defensive Coordinator) Wes Goodwin’s troops turned the Wildcats over on not one, not two, not three, but FOUR occasions (2 interceptions, 2 fumbles), making up for a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 60-yard score to concede the lead in the fourth quarter. Speaking of the final stanza, the two sides combined for FORTY-THREE points within fifteen minutes, as Mafah’s fourth rushing touchdown of the day, followed by a second two-point conversion from Klubnik with seventeens seconds left ultimately iced the game. The young QB completed 31-of-40 passes for 264 yards and an interception, while Mafah rushed for seventy-one yards on just eleven carries. (Senior Linebacker) Barrett Carter and (Sophomore Cornerback) Shelton Lewis each came up with a pick, with the former also recovering a fumble. Despite that, the public doesn’t appear to be very confident in Swinney & Co, as approximately 45% of all wagers placed upon the spread are riding with the cats, while a much smaller share of the total money being wagered (24%) has followed suit. On the injury front, depth in the backfield and along the offensive line has been an issue for the Tigers in recent weeks and will likely be once again in this one, as (Linemen) Dietrick Pennington, Collin Sadler, and Elyjah Thurmon are all out of commission with various maladies, while (Redshirt Freshman Tailback) Jay Haynes is sidelined with an ailing leg. Looking ahead, if Clemson pulls the upset this evening, then they will be headed to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to battle (No. 12) Arizona State in the Peach Bowl.
Meanwhile, their opponent may have the luxury of not carrying the weight of expectations coming into this tourney, but that is NOT the case for Texas (11-2, 7-1 in SEC), who have been one of the favorites to win the National Championship throughout the campaign. And honestly, why wouldn’t they? (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian and his coaching staff have recruited their asses off to rebuild this program into a powerhouse, transitioning from a BIG XII Championship and an appearance in last year’s Playoff to a near-perfect run through the mighty Southeast Conference, where they came up just short in last weekend’s title game. However, when looking at their CV from this Fall, it can be broken down into two distinct halves: their ledger versus (No. 2) Georgia and their performance against everyone else. In their eleven games against everyone else, the Longhorns met little resistance in averaging 36.6 points on 467.4 total yards, enjoying a turnover differential of +8 along the way, but in their two tilts with the Bulldogs they were relegated to a mere 17.0 points on 324.0 total yards with a takeaway margin of -2. The first meeting, an ugly 30-15 affair in Austin that mired by an embarrassing scene in which the student section tossed a plethora of bottles onto the field in protest to a non-call from the officials, saw the Horns held to a season-low 259 yards (3.4 yards per play!) with a season-high four turnovers. Last Saturday’s 22-19 showdown in the SEC Championship Game was a much closer encounter, though Sarkisian & Co still fell in overtime. It was a better offensive performance from Texas, though it still suffered from the same issues that befell its predecessor. After being limited to twenty-nine rushing yards in mid-October, the ground game could muster just thirty yards this time around, matching their dismal yads per carry output (1.1 yards per carry!). To put that into perspective, this is a unit that rushed for 167.4 yards in their other eleven games this season, being held below 4.0 yards per rush just twice. Simply put, if you can’t run the ball well enough against the Dawgs to at least keep them honest, then it’s going to be a very long day at the office, which was the case for (Junior Quarterback) Quinn Ewers, who struggled greatly in these contests. On both occasions, Ewers (pictured below alongside Sarkisian) attempted over forty-five passes and as a result threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns (3). Hell, he was even benched for a few possessions in the first meeting, as (highly rated QB) Arch Manning took over to breathe some life into the offense. While he was suffering from the effects of bruised ribs sustained earlier in the campaign, these two games served as reveal the flaws in his game. Make no mistake, there is no player under more scrutiny to perform well in this Playoff, as the rumors that despite his wishes to return to Austin for his senior year, many in the program are pushing for him to transfer somewhere else so that the Manning era can officially begin. Now we’re not saying that the redshirt freshman would have played any better against Georgia, but the fact that they were forced to settle for so many field goals was very telling. Texas outgained their opponent 389-277 in total yards, including 358-136 through the air, though nonetheless four field goals despite marching deep into Bulldog territory, including the 32-yarder on their lone possession in overtime. The second of Ewers’ two interceptions came at his opponent’s 18-yard line, while a pair of missed field goals from (Senior Kicker) Bert Auburn loomed large in an affair in which he saw plenty of work with four other attempts made.
From a betting perspective, Texas has sported a similar profile to that of their opponent this evening, posting an 11-2 ledger straight-up juxtaposed by a 7-6 record against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 0.36 units. This is a team that started strong in that latter regard, covering four of their first five outings, though has managed to do so just twice in the last seven games, failing to cover against Georgia for the second time this season in last weekend’s SEC Title Game (-3). Under the direction of Sarkisian, this is a program that is 27-25 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2021, including 16-9 ATS in Austin, 25-20 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers (14-10 as a home favorite), 6-7 ATS when coming off a SU loss, and 10-5 ATS versus non-conference opponents, which includes four straight covers against such competition. Furthermore, the Longhorns are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after accumulating 280 or passing yards, which is the case this evening. As we covered earlier, these Texas and Clemson have never met on the gridiron, but we should note that the former is 11-5 SU all-time against adversaries hailing from the Atlantic Coast Conference. However, it’s been quite a while since they have faced such opposition, with their last ACC matchup taking place TWENTY-TWO years ago against North Carolina. It has been far more recently that the Horns have participated in the Playoff, narrowly meeting defeat at the hands of Washington in last year’s National Semifinal. Sarkisian & Co trailed throughout this tilt, drawing level on a few occasions but never managing to take the lead. 498 total yards wasn’t enough to get the job done, as (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit was torched for 532 total yards, including 430 versus the pass. Self-inflicted wounds also hurt the reigning BIG XII champs, as a pair of lost fumbles and ten penalties for a loss of sixty-six yards proved to be just fatal enough to keep Ewers and the attack from doing more damage. Speaking of the veteran QB, he completed 24-of-43 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another fifty-four yards on eight carries, while the tandem of (Sophomore Tailback) C.J. Baxter and (Junior RB) Jaydon Blue combined for 123 rushing yards with a touchdown apiece. The public is favoring Texas in tonight’s return to the tournament, with roughly 54% of all wagers placed upon the spread donning burnt orange, while a much larger of the total sum of money changing hands (75%) has followed suit. On the injury front, backfield depth has been an issue for the Longhorns too, as Baxter has missed the entire season rehabbing from a torn LCL and PCL in his right knee, while (fellow Tailbacks) Chrisitan Clark (Achilles) and most recently Velton Gardner are out of commission too. However, the biggest potential absence comes from one of the biggest players on the team, as (Junior Left Tackle) Kelvin Banks, the latest recipient of the Outland and Lombardi Awards, has been slowed by a sprained ankle and listed as questionable for this first round affair. Looking ahead, if Sarkisian & Co take care of their business at home this evening, then they will be off to Atlanta where the upstart Sun Devils await in the Quarterfinals of this Playoff.