8:00 PM EST, ABC/ESPN – Spread: Ohio State -7.5, Total: 47.5
The final first round affair in this year’s College Football Playoff is perhaps the juiciest, as the (No. 6) Ohio State Buckeyes look to put yet another defeat to their bitter rivals in the rearview mirror, as they turn their attention to this postseason affair with the (No. 7) Tennessee Volunteers, who are in turn making their first-ever appearance in this tournament. Arguably the most rewarding thing about this expanded playoff is that strong teams from loaded conferences that wouldn’t otherwise get the opportunity to participate in the event due to said strength of their native leagues, are now granted the chance to create chaos, which brings us to Tennessee (10-2, 6-2 in SEC). Since hiring (Head Coach) Josh Heupel, this is a program that is 37-14 overall (.725), including 20-12 in SEC play (.625), with a pair of 10-win campaigns featuring in the top ten of the AP and CFP rankings on numerous occasions. However, their inability to get past the titans within their own conference has ultimately kept them from participating in this tourney, though that is no longer the case. As we’ve come to expect from Heupel’s teams, the Vols possess a prolific, up-tempo attack scoring 37.2 points per game (8th in FBS) on a balanced 462.9 total yards, including 232.0 rushing yards and another 230.9 yards through the air, equating to a net 6.3 yards per play. (Redshirt Freshman Quarterback) Nico Iamaleava has flourished in his first season as the starter, picking up where he left off from last year’s bowl (more on that in a bit), completing 65.7% of his throws for 2,512 yards on 8.3 yards per attempt, nineteen touchdowns and five interceptions. While his mobility his certainly a weapon, Heupel (pictured below with Iamaleava) hasn’t needed to tap into it too much, given the presence of (Junior Tailback) Dylan Sampson, who led the SEC in carries (256), rushing yards (1,485), and rushing scores (22). However, the passing game is very much predicated off of the success of the ground game, which has been reflected in their record; in their ten victories, Tennessee has logged a robust 246.4 rushing yards in comparison to 160.0 yards in their two losses, a 19-14 affair at Arkansas and a 31-17 tilt at Georgia. Conversely, Iamaleava struggled mightily without the benefit of balance, completing 37-of-62 passes (59.6%) for 162.5 yards on just 5.2 yards per attempt, with zero touchdowns, while failing to make much of an impact with his legs (35 yards on 1.5 yards per carry). With that being said, they had little trouble doing anything and everything they wanted to do in their annual battle with (instate rival) Vanderbilt, whom they downed in a 36-23 affair in the season finale. The Commodores, who have logged some serious upsets this Fall, raced out to a 14-0 lead, only for the Volunteers to turn the tables and finish the game on a 36-9 run. Iamaleava tossed FOUR touchdown passes, including a pair to (Senior Wideout) Dont’e Thornton of twenty-eight and eighty-six yards. In the end, Heupel’s troops outgained the hosts 538-212 in total yards, 281-108 in rushing yards, 2257-104 in passing yards, and 8-15 in first downs, despite losing the turnover battle (2-1) and being flagged a dozen times for a loss of 102 yards. Sampson ran wild for 178 yards on twenty-five carries, while Thornton needed just three receptions to register 118 yards receiving. Credit to (Defensive Coordinator) Tim Banks, whose unit has been strong throughout the season, relegated Vandy to a season-low in yards. Over the course of the campaign, Banks’ defense has shipped just 13.9 points (5th in FBS) on 278.3 total yards, including 178.7 yards versus the pass and a mere 99.6 yards against the run, marking by far and away their strongest performance on this side of the football in years. (Defensive Backs) Jermod McCoy and Will Brooks have been bonafide ballhawks with seven combined interceptions and fourteen deflected passes, while (Junior Defensive End) James Pearce leads the way with 7.5 sacks and eleven tackles for loss with a forced fumble.
From a betting perspective, Tennessee may have finished up the regular season with a 10-2 record straight-up, but they were a fairly rewarding side against the spread too (7-5), parlaying to a net profit of 1.36 units. This is a team that started strong with four SU/ATS victories, only to drop FIVE of their next versus the spread, though do enter this tournament on a run of back-to-back covers, including that finale at upstart Vanderbilt (-10). Under the direction of Heupel, this is a program that is 30-21 ATS since his arrival back in 2021, including 9-9 ATS away from Neyland Stadium, 4-9 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers (1-5 as a road underdog), 5-3 ATS with rest, 16-16 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 13-3 ATS versus non-conference opposition. Furthermore, his troops are 10-4 ATS against foes that are fresh off an outright loss, which is the case tonight. The Volunteers have covered TEN consecutive contests versus opponents residing outside of the SEC over the past three seasons and 10-2 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, though have failed to cover NINE straight outings as dogs of fewer than nine points after scoring thirty-five or more points in the previous tilt, with all three trends relevant tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, these programs have only ever met on the gridiron once, a 20-14 Vols victory in the 1996 Citrus Bowl. To give you an idea as to how long ago that was, a young Peyton Manning led Tennessee to a W. The Volunteers are 13-4 all-time against BIG 10 adversaries, which have become frequent opponents in the postseason; four of the last five teams that they’ve faced in bowls have hailed from that conference, including their most recent, a 35-0 shutout of (No. 20) Iowa in last year’s Citrus Bowl. Favored by five points, Heupel’s charges put the Hawkeyes to the sword, outgaining them 383-173 in total yards, 25-11 in first downs, and 232-113 on the ground. Iamaleava rushed for three rushing touchdowns while completing 12-of-19 passes for 151 yards and another score, while the aforementioned Pearce returned an interception fifty-two yards to the house. Tonight’s playoff affair marks the first time that the Vols have participated in the tournament, and the first time that they have found themselves competing for a national title since securing the 1998 BCS National Championship. The public seems to be backing the SEC in this one, as roughly 62% of all wagers placed upon the spread are wearing orange, while a smaller share of the total money wagered thus far (55%) has followed suit. On the injury front, keep an eye on the receiving corps where the team’s top three leading pass-catchers are all listed as questionable for tonight’s affair, including Thornton Jr. (upper body), Bru McCoy (lower body), and Squirrel White (arm). The triumvirate have combined for ninety-one receptions, 1,443 yards, and ten touchdowns this season, with Thornton serving as the team’s resident big-play threat, leading the SEC with a whopping 25.9 yards per catch. Looking ahead, with a win tonight, Tennessee will be heading to Pasadena for a date with (No. 1) Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Meanwhile, the faithful in Columbus may not want to hear it, but this expanded playoff has offered Ohio State (10-2, 7-2 in BIG 10) the opportunity for redemption, which is something that they haven’t necessarily received in the past three times that they have been bested by their bitter rivals to the north. That’s right, folks, for a fourth consecutive season, the Buckeyes have fallen to Michigan, with this latest defeat easily the most disappointing. Indeed, after watching their foes win the national championship last January, everything aligned for the axis in this rivalry to be turned on its head. First, the Wolverines bid farewell to their head coach (Jim Harbaugh) and a slew of starters, including nine on the offensive side of the ball alone, and as a result stumbled through an uneven campaign with a 6-5 ledger coming into the matchup. Second, OSU appeared to have stocked up with this game in mind; (Head Coach) Ryan Day tapped into the Transfer Portal in a major way, spending nearly $20 million in NIL funds on the likes of (Quarterback) Will Howard, (Tailback) Quinshon Judkins, (Center) Seth McLaughlin, and (Safety) Caleb Downs, bolstering a roster featuring a bevy of SIXTEEN returning starters who were all hungry for some payback. Furthermore, their only defeat of the season at that point came at (No. 1) Oregon, an entertaining 32-31 affair in Eugene in which Howard’s confounding clock management ended any opportunity to earn the victory. So, with the table set, how did the Scarlet & Gray fare in the game, you ask? They were bullied in a 13-10 defensive struggle, that’s what. The hosts were relegated to a season-low 252 yards, including a scant seventy-seven yards on the ground, which revealed the true contrast between these teams. Michigan pounded their way to 172 rushing yards on forty-two carries, mostly between the tackles, which is something that Ohio State struggled like hell to do. Under (Offensive Coordinator) Chip Kelly, who fled UCLA to call plays for his former assistant, this has been a ground game that thrived in running outside of the tackles, with Judkins (805 yards, 8 TD) and (Senior Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson (751 yards, 6 TD) each logging over 5.0 yards per carry this year for a ground attack that churned out 169.2 yards per game on 5.2 yards per attempt. Given the injury woes along the offensive line (which we’ll get into in more detail later), it was rather perplexing that Day and Kelly opted to keep pounding the rock with little success against the Wolverines’ stellar defensive front, which is something that the skipper lamented in the post-game press conference. Without that precious balance, Howard (pictured below alongside Day) struggled to find holes in the Secondary, completing just 19-of-33 passes for 175 yards (5.3 yards per attempt), with one touchdown and a pair of interceptions, both of which came deep in enemy territory. And then there was the ugly scrum after the final whistle, as the visitors attempted to plant their school’s flag at midfield, only for the Buckeyes to take major offense leading to a prolonged skirmish that turned into a black eye for both teams. Now, Ohio State and Day in particular, are facing an uncertain future; with calls for a coaching change in Columbus, he and the Buckeyes face arguably the toughest path towards winning the national championship.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may have finished the regular season with an identical record to their opponent tonight (10-2), but they haven’t been rewarding at all against the spread (6-6), parlaying to a net loss of 0.55 units. Consistency on this front was hard to come by for a team that could manage consecutive covers just twice with no more than two in a row at any given point, though that is to be expected when you are frequent heavy favorites. They were favored by 20+ points on SEVEN occasions, by double-digits in all but two contests, and never once found themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers. Under the leadership of Day, this is a program that is 39-34-3 versus the spread since his promotion back in 2019, including 23-14 ATS in Columbus, 35-29 ATS as a favorite (25-15 ATS as a home favorite), 8-7 ATS with the luxury of rest, 1-4 ATS off a SU defeat, and 8-12 ATS versus non-conference opposition. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have covered just one of their last seven outings when favored between 3.5-10.0 points, with only a single cover in their last eight non-conference tilts when favored by twenty-eight or fewer points, with both trends relevant tonight. However, it should be noted that Day has been close to perfect against foes who aren’t unbeaten; the embattled skipper is 45-2 SU versus teams with a percentage of .900 or worse, though he did suffer his second loss under those circumstances in that upset at the hands of the Wolverines. As we touched upon earlier, OSU has met Tennessee on the gridiron only once in the long proud history of these two schools, nearly thirty years ago in the 1996 Citrus Bowl. Again, this was so long ago that Buckeyes’ legendary tailback, Eddie George was fresh off winning the Heisman Memorial Trophy. Ohio State has historically struggled against SEC foes, posting a dismal 5-14-1 record in such contests, including 0-3 over their last four trips to the postseason. Since the advent of the Playoff, the Buckeyes are 1-2 in the tourney against team hailing from the mighty Southeast Conference, with the most notable being the 2020 National Title Game where they were annihilated by Alabama in a 52-24 rout. Last December, they crossed paths with (No. 9) Missouri is the Cotton Bowl, where they were handed a 14-3 defeat due in large part to a number of players opting out of the postseason affair. Day’s troops could muster only a single field goal in a listless performance, in which the two quarterbacks, Lincoln Kienholz and Devin Brown (who has since transferred) completed just 10-of-23 passes for 106 yards. On the other hand, (Senior Defensive End) Jack Sawyer led a strong defensive performance accounting for three of his team’s six sacks. On the injury front, all the attention is being paid to the offensive line, were a pair of starters, (Junior Left Tackle) Josh Simmons (knee) and the aforementioned McLaughlin (Achilles) are both out for the season with various maladies. (Sophomore Tackle) Zen Michalski, who was initially intended to slot into Simmons’ spot on the blindside, is also listed as questionable after missing the last three outings with a lower body issue of his own. Looking ahead, if Ohio State take care of business at the Horseshoe tonight, then they will be off to the Rose Bowl for a rematch with the top-ranked Ducks.