1:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Eagles -3.5, Total: 45.5
Bitter division rivals cross paths yet again this afternoon in Landover, as the surging Philadelphia Eagles are in hot pursuit of the number one overall seed in the NFC with a potential ELEVENTH straight win, while the Washington Commanders are looking for payback after getting bullied in their previous encounter. My, oh my what a difference a year has made for the Eagles (12-2, 1st in NFC East), who with each passing week look like the most complete team in the National Football League. By now, we all know the story with these birds: after narrowly falling short in Super Bowl LVII, they began the ensuing campaign on a 10-1 tear, only to collapse in sensational fashion, losing five of their final six games in lieu of getting embarrassed on Wild Card Weekend. For a second straight offseason, (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni turned over his coaching staff, while (longtime General Manager) Howie Roseman crushed it in both free agency and the draft, bolstering both sides of the football with a plethora of playmakers. Simply put, Philadelphia has reaped the rewards of these new faces, with (Offensive and Defensive Coordinators) Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio revamping their respective sides of the football, while the additions of (Rookie Defensive Backs) Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been standouts in coverage. However, the biggest import has been (veteran Tailback) Saquon Barkley, who signed in the Spring after spending the first six years of his career with the Giants. Needless to say, Barkley has exceeded expectations performing behind Philly’s dominant offensive line, leading the NFL in carries (285), rushing yards (1,688), touches (316), and yards from scrimmage (1,964), needing 418 yards over these final three games to break Eric Dickerson’s longstanding single-season record for rushing yards (2,105 set in 1984). Unfortunately, all anyone could talk about in the weeks leading up to last Sunday’s potential Super Bowl preview against the Steelers was the fractured relationship between quarterback and wide receiver, Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown. Despite the team’s overall success, there was growing criticism of the passing game, which has clearly taken a backseat to the exploits of Barkley and the rushing attack. Brown had frequently lamented these issues in interviews, with teammates even going so far as to shed light on the rift between he and Hurts (pictured together below) through the media. Now, we’ve seen how damaging a feud between stars at these respective positions can be, particularly in Philadelphia, but thankfully for all parties involved, they took out their frustrations on Pittsburgh in a dominant 27-13 victory. This one was a very one-sided affair, folks, as Sirianni’s charges outgained their neighbors to the west 401-163 in total yards, 131-56 on the ground, and 26-10 in first downs. The passing attack took precedence here, as Hurts shredded the visitors for 290 yards on an efficient 25-of-32 passing, finding Brown eight times on eleven targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, which was the most yards that the latter had totaled since mid-October. (Fellow Wideout) DeVonta Smith also made an impact with 109 yards and a score of his own on eleven receptions, while his QB rushed for forty-five yards and another touchdown on fifteen carries. As for Barkley, he posted a subdued sixty-five yards on nineteen attempts, proving that this team is more than capable of handling their business even when the MVP candidate isn’t at his best.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles may be a sterling 12-2 straight-up thus far, but they have also been a rewarding side against the spread (9-5), parlaying to a net profit of 3.18 units, which is in stark contrast to their finish from last season (0-7 ATS). This is a team that carried some of that malaise on over into the current campaign, covering two of their first five contests, only to have rounded into form with SEVEN covers over their last nine outings. Under the leadership of Sirianni, this is a franchise that is 33-34-3 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2021, including 13-12 ATS away from Lincoln Financial Field, 20-16 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 20-15 ATS wen coming off a SU victory, and 8-7 ATS versus their fellow neighbors within the NFC East. Furthermore, his troops are a worrying 9-20 ATS against an opponent harboring revenge, including 2-11 ATS in such games contested in the months December and January. Philadelphia has covered a commanding TEN of twelve tilts when favored against opponents with a win percentage above .600 over the past three seasons, while covering FIVE consecutive road games. With that being said, it should be noted that these birds have failed to cover NINE straight outings (0-8-1 ATS) immediately preceding a date with the Cowboys, including their previous instance from back in early November, a 28-23 win over the lowly Jaguars whom they were favored against by 7.5 points. Looking at this particular matchup, the Eagles trail the all-time series between these franchises (89-86-1), though have won four of the last five meetings SU. Interestingly, the birds have failed to cover SEVEN consecutive contests against the Commanders, though that is due in large part to the spreads being sizable, with only one of those games featuring a line fewer than six points. That was the case when they crossed paths on a Thursday night back in mid-November, a 26-18 victory that wasn’t quite as close as that final score would suggest. Philly outgained the visitors 434-264 in total yards, including 228-93 in rushing, which saw the home side convert a healthy 9-of-16 third downs, while relegating Washington to 3-of-12 on that same front. Hurts completed 18-of-28 passes for 221 yards, while rushing for another thirty-nine yards and a score, though the undisputed star of the night was Barkley, who churned out 198 yards from scrimmage and a pair of rushing touchdowns on twenty-eight touches. In ten all-time meetings, the former Giant has logged 104.3 total yards with ten scores against this particular opponent. As for Hurts, he has enjoyed great success versus the Commanders, completing 65.6% of his throws for an average of 244.5 yards on 8.0 net yards per attempt with a dozen touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, rushing for another 243 yards and six scores to boot. In terms of his career ATS, he is 16-19 on the road, 24-25 as a favorite, 7-22 against revenge, 18-14 when coming off back-to-back SU victories, and 9-12 against the NFC East. On the injury front, Sirianni has seven players occupying injured reserve, including (veteran Defensive End) Brandon Graham, (veteran Cornerback) James Bradberry, and (Tight End0 Dallas Goedert. The rest of the squad is largely healthy though, with (Pro-Bowl Guard) Landon Dickerson (knee) and the aforementioned Brown (rest) each listed as questionable after being limited throughout the week of practice with various maladies. Looking ahead, the Eagles will return to the City of Brotherly Love for the foreseeable future, finishing the regular season against a pair of division rivals, the Cowboys and Giants.
Meanwhile, arguably the most warming storyline of this season has been the renaissance in Landover, where the Commanders (9-5, 2nd in NFC East) look reborn after a complete makeover. Indeed, few franchises were in need of one more than Washington, who have advanced to the playoffs just five times since the turn of the century, having gone seven consecutive campaigns without a so much as a winning record. However, the new ownership group led by Josh Harris hit a series of home runs in the offseason, hiring (General Manager) Adam Peters from the 49ers, (Head Coach) Dan Quinn from the Cowboys, (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury from USC, and most notably, selecting (Rookie Quarterback) Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick in last Spring’s NFL Draft. As a result, this is a club that has a great chance of winning ten games for the first time since 2012, due in large part to the dramatic culture shift instituted by Quinn. While many remember him for presiding over the worst collapse in Super Bowl history, the 54-year-old rebuilt his image as Dallas’ defensive coordinator from 2021-2023, turning that unit into a turnover machine and developing several talents into Pro-Bowl performers. His energy and attitude have been infectious in Washington, which has been evident in their play on both sides of the football, particularly on offense, where his appointment of Kingsbury to run the show has been an inspired choice. The former Cardinals’ head coach in rehabbing his image around the league too, directing an attack that ranks sixth in points (28.3), fifth in total offense (373.9), third in rushing (155.5), sixth on third down (44.9%), and eighth in the red zone (60.3%), all the while taking excellent care of the football with just nine turnovers (3rd Overall) despite deploying a rookie QB. Speaking of Daniels (pictured below), the 2023 Heisman-winner is the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors for those same reasons, performing well beyond his years in completing 70.5% of his throws for 3,045 yards on 6.65 net yards per attempt, seventeen touchdowns and six interceptions, posting a QBR of 67.9 along the way. The 24-year-old is also a serious threat on the ground, rushing for 656 yards and six more scores on a healthy 5.5 yards per carry despite his relatively slight frame. While some bruised ribs may have slowed him down a bit during the middle of the season, he emerged fresh from a late bye week to lead the Commanders to a narrow 20-19 victory over the Saints last Sunday. In what was a collegiate homecoming for the former Tiger, Daniels propelled the visitors to an early 17-0 lead, finding (veteran Wideout) Terry McLaurin for a pair of touchdowns in a 10-minute span between the first and second quarters. Washington led 20-7 early in the fourth period, though capitulated thereafter as New Orleans scored twelve unanswered points to draw within a single point with triple zeros on the clock. Rather than kick to extra point and go to overtime, the hosts opted to go for the win with a two-point conversion, though Quinn’s defense stood their ground and thwarted the potential game-winner that fell harmlessly to the turf. The visitors held significant advantages in total yards (326-245), first downs (23-17), rushing yards (137-69), and time of possession (40:50), though struggled to finish drives after those first two touchdowns, settling for a pair of field goals before a missed attempt from fifty-four yards opened the door for their opponent. Daniels completed 25-of-31 throws for 226 yards and those two scores, rushing for another sixty-six yards on eleven carries, though was subject to consistent pressure throughout the affair, suffering EIGHT sacks and nine pressures, equating to pressure on 20.5% of his drop-backs. if there is one criticism to be found of the young signal-caller, he can hold onto the ball a little too long at times, taking thirty-seven sacks thus far with a pressure percentage of 18.2%.
From a betting perspective, what you see is basically what you get with these Commanders, who are 9-5 straight-up and 8-5-1 against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 2.27 units. This is a team burst on the scene like gangbusters with SEVEN covers in their first nine games (7-1-1), though have cooled off considerably in failing to cover all but one of their last five games, including last weekend’s narrow win at New Orleans (-7.5). Over the course of his coaching career, Quinn is a stellar 15-4-1 versus the spread as an underdog following a SU victory, which is once again the case this afternoon. Washington is 0-5-1 in their past five home games when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 10-2 ATS following back-to-back SU wins and facing a division opponent who happen to be above .500, and 3-11 ATS at home versus their fellow NFC East neighbors also coming off a home tilt. Furthermore, they have covered six consecutive contests as a home dog of less than five points against an opponent with a percentage above .600, which is also the case this today. Looking at this particular matchup, the Commanders own a narrow edge in the all-time series between these classic franchises (89-86-1), though they have been near lock in terms of covering the spread in these affairs; Washington is 9-1 ATS in their last ten encounters with the birds, with the dog covering every single game during that stretch. This was the case when they crossed paths last month, that aforementioned 26-18 defeat at Lincoln Financial Field. As we detailed earlier, this one wasn’t nearly as close as you would think given that score, but the Commanders struggled mightily throughout the night before a late 5-yard touchdown toss form Daniels to (former Eagles Tight End) Zach Ertz followed by a two-point conversion courtesy of that same connection cutting the deficit to eight points. It was a tough day at the office for the rookie QB, who completed 22-of-32 passes for just 191 yards, that score and an interception, while being largely contained in the pocket with a mere eighteen rushing yards on seven carries. In fact, Daniels completed just four passes to wide receivers in this one, with not one of those pass-catchers reeling in more than a single pass, as they struggled to gain separation opposite of the Eagles’ staunch Secondary. The public seems to be keenly aware of that contest, as approximately 24% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the Burgundy & Gold, while an even smaller share of the total sum of money wagered thus far (13%) has followed suit. On the injury front, Quinn has six players languishing on injured reserve, with (veteran Defensive Tackle) Jonathan Allen (pectoral) being the most prominent. As for the rest of the team, Ertz is listed as questionable due to concussion-like symptoms, along with (veteran Safety) Jeremy Chinn who is also dealing with a concussion. Looking ahead, the Commanders will host the Falcons next Sunday night in a primetime affair ripe with postseason implications, before making their annual pilgrimage to Arlington to battle the Cowboys in the finale.