8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Packers -14.0, Total: 42.5
Week Sixteen comes to a close in frigid Eastern Wisconsin, as the surging Green Bay Packers look to gain some precious ground over their division brethren, while the decimated New Orleans Saints cling to their faint postseason hopes in this primetime affair from the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. While they may still be mathematically alive in the ever-mediocre NFC South, the Saints (5-9, 3rd in NFC South) are barreling towards a long-overdue full-blown rebuild. Over the last four seasons, this franchise has been the definition of mediocre, posting a 30-35 (.461) record with no playoff appearances during a span in which they bid farewell to the two pillars of their previous success, (former QB) Drew Brees and (former Head Coach) Sean Payton. Rather than start fresh in 2022, (longtime General Manager) Mickey Loomis opted for continuity, promoting (longtime Defensive Coordinator) Dennis Allen, who had been with the club since 2015 to the head position. However, the team continued to regress under his watch, even after they acquired the services of (4-time Pro-Bowl QB) Derek Carr, whom Allen drafted back during his time with the Raiders. Following a second 9-8 finish in 3 years, Allen then hired (Offensive Coordinator) Klint Kubiak to ignite a stalling attack that rarely proved to be greater than sum of its parts, and despite some early fireworks, ultimately paid the price for their struggles. The Saints started the campaign 2-0, averaging a prolific 45.5 points on 405.5 total yards, only to proceed to drop each of their next SEVEN contests, with the offense flatlining to 16.5 points per game on 310.3 yards. As such, Allen was relieved of his duties. So, what in the name of Archie Manning happened in the Big Easy, you ask? Well, injuries happened, folks, and they happened in waves. Carr missed three games in a row due to an oblique strain, before eventually suffering a fracture in his non-throwing hand bracing his fall after lunging for a first down midway through a 14-11 victory over the Giants. In addition to their QB, the offensive line has been a revolving door with the quintet that began the season rarely seen together since, while a litany of playmakers such as (Receivers) Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed missing six and eight games apiece, with (veteran Tailback) Alvin Kamara, who was the lone healthy weapon throughout the campaign, leaving last weekend’s 20-19 defeat at home to the Commanders due to a strained groin. It is a difficult spot for (interim HC) Darren Rizzi to be in, though we have to credit the longtime Special Teams Coordinator for at the very least infusing the team with some sorely needed energy. Since his appointment, New Orleans has won three out of five games, all of which have been nothing short of competitive despite all of those absences. This was the case against Washington, as the hosts rallied back to nearly upset the visitors after trailing by seventeen points midway through the third quarter. On a beautifully scripted trick play, (veteran Wideout) Cedrick Wilson caught the ball behind the line of scrimmage and threw a dart to Kamara for a 21-yard touchdown to finally get on the board. After holding their opponent to a field goal on the next drive, Rizzi’s troops ran off twelve unanswered points to cut the deficit to one point at the end of regulation. However, rather than send the affair into overtime, Rizzi (pictured below) opted to go for the win with (Rookie QB) Spencer Rattler under center, which was a decision that blew up in his face as the youngster rolled out to his right searching for a target that never got open, tossing the ball out of bounds. Rattler took over for an injured Jake Haener in the second half, completing 10-of-21 passes for 135 yards and a short touchdown to (veteran Tight End) Foster Moreau, while Kamara racked up seventy yards from scrimmage before leaving due to injury. The defense deserves credit for shutting Washington down in the second half, sacking (Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner) Jayden Daniels EIGHT times with a total of nine pressures. Now with three games to go, it is anyone’s guess if Loomis will be around to decide if Rizzi will earn the full-time job, for this is a franchise that is expected to be between $60-$65 million over the salary cap. Granted, Loomis has proven adept at kicking the proverbial can down the road, but at some point, the bill must come due, which likely spells major turnover in the Big Easy in 2025.
From a betting perspective, the Saints have been subpar straight-up (5-9) and against the spread (6-8), parlaying to a net loss of 2.55 units. After winning and covering their first two games in comfortable fashion, this is a team that went on to cover just three of their next eleven outings before rallying back to nearly upset the Commanders in last weekend’s loss (+7.5). Since Rizzi has taken over, the club has been more competitive, posting a 3-2 record versus the spread, including 3-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 0-1 ATS away from Caesars Superdome, 0-1 ATS following a SU defeat, and 2-2 ATS versus opposition residing outside of the NFC South. New Orleans is 10-3 ATS in their last thirteen road ventures in the month of December, though have failed to cover four consecutive contests away from home overall. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 18-28 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 2-6 ATS as a road underdog, while covering just one of their last eight appearances (1-6-1). Looking at this particular matchup, the Saints trail the all-time series 18-10, though have taken three of the last five encounters. Interestingly, the dog has covered TEN straight meetings, with tonight’s spread being by far and away the largest in recent memory. The last time that these teams crossed paths was fifteen months ago in a narrow 18-17 affair at Lambeau Field. The defenses reigned supreme in this one, folks, as neither side managed to make much of an impact on the ground, combining for 172 rushing yards on forty-eight carries (3.5 yards per carry). However, of the two, it was clear that the Saints were worse off, mustering just 252 total yards, fifteen first downs, converting 4-of-14 on third down, and drawing the ire of the officials on seven occasions for a loss of 102 yards. The visitors led 17-0 at halftime, though would punt on five straight possessions in the second half, before missing a potential game-winning 46-yard field goal with just a minute left to play in regulation. Carr completed 13-of-18 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown before being forced out of the tilt due to injury, with (veteran journeyman) Jameis Winston relieving him of his duties. Even getting FOURTEEN points from the oddsmakers, the public doesn’t appear to be willing to pull the trigger on Rizzi’s troops, as approximately 23% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the visitors, while an even smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered (21%) has followed suit. On the injury front, it’s been a tough season for New Orleans, as we detailed earlier with nine different players occupying a spot on injured reserve. However, despite not technically on IR, Carr (hand) is in all likelihood done for the campaign, while the same could be true for Kamara (groin) as neither have practiced this week. (Veteran Wideout) Marquez Valdes-Scantling and (veteran Edge-Rusher) Chase Young haven’t practiced either, the former due to a bruised chest and the latter due to illness, leaving their availability for tonight’s affair in question. Looking ahead, a loss tonight will eliminate the Saints from playoff contention, with a visit from the struggling Raiders followed by their annual pilgrimage to Tampa to battle the Buccaneers in the finale closing out the regular season.
Meanwhile, just as they did a year ago, the Packers (10-4, 3rd in NFC North) are finding their stride at the right time, winning four out of five contests since their bye week. After an uneven start to the campaign in which (young Quarterback) Jordan Love missed some time due to a strained MCL, Green Bay is showing signs of being the Super Bowl contender that many predicted that they would become. However, the issue is that as good as they have been, (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur’s troops continue to trail the Lions and Vikings within their own division, who both sit at 12-2 jockeying for home field in the playoffs. With that being said, these cheeseheads proved that they could win on the road last January, embarrassing the Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend before giving the 49ers everything they could handle a week later in Santa Clara. So, what in the name of Bart Starr has gotten in the Packers, you ask? Well, the offense is balanced and multifaceted, while the defense is vastly improved under the direction of (new Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley. Let’s start with the former Boston College skipper, shall we? LaFleur was unhappy with his team’s lack of takeaways a year ago (18), so he tabbed Hafley from the collegiate ranks to spur a turnaround in this regard, which has reaped plenty of rewards with TWENTY-SIX turnovers forced thus far (4th Overall), including at least three in five of their first six games. As for the attack, Love has gotten healthy and has thus been terrifying for opposing defenses, completing an efficient 68.7% of his throws for 226.6 yards on a healthy 9.72 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to just one interception. (Veteran Tailback) Josh Jacobs has also played a heavy role in their success on this side of the football, amassing 111.8 yards from scrimmage and nine scores during this stretch, looking reborn after a down season with Las Vegas last year. The 2022 rushing champion has been a huge addition in free agency, rushing for 1,147 yards on 4.3 yards per carry and a dozen touchdowns thus far, while serving as a factor in the passing game to boot, hauling in thirty-one receptions for another 302 yards and one more score. It was clear that LaFleur wanted to get him going in last weekend’s 30-13 drubbing of the Seahawks, as the 2-time Pro-Bowler dominated with 136 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown on an industrious thirty touches. Hell, Jacobs (pictured below) touched the ball on nine of the visitor’s first ten plays on the opening drive, totaling forty-four yards along the way with a short jaunt into the end zone putting an exclamation point on the possession. This one was one-sided, folks, as the Packers scored twenty points on their first four drives, before losing a bit of steam in the second half. However, they would get right after an interception courtesy of (Rookie Linebacker) Edgerrin Cooper, immediately leading to 22-yard dart from Love to (young receiver) Romeo Doubs to put the game well out of reach. In the end, Green Bay outgained Seattle 369-208 in total yards, including 140-80 on the ground, while Hafley’s defense logged a pair of interceptions and SEVEN sacks. Love completed an efficient 20-of-27 passes for 229 yards and a pair of touchdowns, with Doubs accounting for both scores along with forty yards on three receptions. Cooper continued to impress with seven tackles, two for loss, a sack, and that pick, while (Sophomore Cornerback) Carrington Valentine was responsible for the other interception, with (emerging Edge-Rusher) Kingsley Enagbare racked up two sacks and five tackles.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be 10-4 straight-up thus far, but they have been far less-rewarding against the spread this season (7-6-1), parlaying to a scant net profit of 0.36 units. This is a team that has managed to win three games without the covering the spread, while pushing another for good measure, with those four contests decided by a combined nine points. Under the leadership of LaFleur, this is a franchise that is 60-43-1 versus the spread since he arrived back 2019, including 32-19 ATS at Lambeau Field, 36-31 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 38-29-1 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 41-29 ATS against all opponents outside of the NFC North. Green Bay has covered four consecutive contests as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points, though have failed to cover six straight games as favorites of more than fourteen points, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, the cheeseheads are an even 30-30 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 10-11 ATS as a home favorite. Looking at this particular matchup, the Packers own a 18-10 edge in the all-time series, though as we detailed earlier, the recent history between these teams has been all about the underdogs, who have covered ten straight meetings. This was the case in that aforementioned affair from last season, in which the tundra up there at Lambeau Field was far from frozen quite yet. This one was notable for the fact that it was Love’s first home victory as the starting QB, though it certainly didn’t seem like it would end that way early on. The host’s first seven possessions of the afternoon resulted in just eighty-two yards, though they finally found their rhythm midway through the third quarter, driving eighty-two yards downfield on a 12-play drive that was ultimately stopped on a fourth-and-two from New Orleans’ 13-yard line. From there, the home side ran off eighteen unanswered points, as Love ran for a score, then converted the two-point attempt, and then found Doubs for an 8-yard touchdown to take their first lead of the day with just under three minutes remaining. When it was all said and done, LaFleur’s troops amassed 345 total yards on twenty-one first downs, converting 8-of-18 third downs, while getting flagged eleven times for a loss of ninety yards. Love completed 22-of-44 throws for 259 yards, that touchdown and an early interception, while rushing for another thirty-nine yards on nine carries. Doubs was targeted a dozen times, but logged five receptions for seventy-three yards and the game-winning score. (Veteran Defensive End) Rashan Gary was a menace throughout the afternoon, accounting for three of his team’s four sacks, along with five pressures and a hurry. Getting back to Love, he is 7-6 ATS as a starter at home, 6-7 ATS as a favorite, 8-8 ATS following a SU win, and 11-9 ATS against non-division opposition. On the injury front, Green Bay is getting healthy at the right time, particularly in the Secondary where (2-time Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander is set to make his return after missing the last four games with an ailing knee. One of the best cover corners in the NFL, the 27-year-old has been limited to just fourteen games over the past two seasons. Looking ahead, the Packers will be headed to Minneapolis for a seismic showdown with the Vikings, who lead them by two games in the division, before returning home to host the struggling Bears in the finale from Lambeau.