1:00 PM EST, Netflix – Spread: Chiefs -2.5, Total: 43.0
Merry Christmas and happy holidays from everyone here at Oracle Sports, as we get set to enjoy an afternoon full of quality football, with the (two-time reigning Super Bowl Champion) Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers, who are desperate to bounce back after suffering consecutive defeats. The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same for the Chiefs (14-1, 1st in AFC West), who not long after clinching their NINTH straight division crown stand one win away from locking up home field throughout the AFC playoffs along with the precious bye week that comes with it. Granted, Kansas City didn’t need home field advantage or the bye to win their third Lombardi Trophy in five years, going on the road and grinding out tough wins at Buffalo (27-24) and Baltimore (17-10) last January. Make no mistake about it, folks, that has been the theme for this current campaign, as (Head Coach) Andy Reid & Co have flirted with defeat on plenty of occasions though have rarely accepted it. In comparison to their previous incarnations, this particular group has been nothing short of resilient, outscoring the opposition by a margin of 5.2 points per game, with a whopping TEN of their fourteen victories decided by seven or less points, including six by five or fewer. So, how have they done it, you ask? Well, if you believe the regular discourse in the media, they are either very fortunate or they benefit from the favor of the officials. Let’s dismiss the latter, shall we? If the mark of great teams is finding ways to win games that they should lose, then these Chiefs certainly fit that bill. On opening night, they survived a furious rally from the Ravens in which a potential game-winning touchdown was overturned due to the pass-catcher’s toe landing on the white paint of boundary marking the back of the end zone. A week later, the Bengals were flagged for a crucial defensive pass interference on the final drive, flipping the field and gifting KC the opportunity to kick the game-winner, which they did. Against the Broncos, it was a miracle blocked field goal that saved their bacon in a 16-14 affair, before very nearly succumbing to an upset against the lowly Panthers a few weeks later, needing another walk-off field goal to earn the win. Oh, and then there was back-to-back 19-17 victories over division rivals Las Vegas and Los Angeles, benefitting from three missed field goals and a bizarre fumbled snap in the waning moments of the former. Are they a 14-1 team on paper? Yes. Are they really as good as their record would suggest? That’s up for debate. What can’t be debated is when you have (2-tme MVP) Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, you have a good chance of winning every week, even when he’s playing with a sprained ankle. A week after hobbling off the gridiron, Mahomes (pictured below) looked as strong as ever in last weekend’s 27-19 victory over the Texans. The 29-year-old opened their ledger with a 15-yard scamper into the end zone on the opening drive, eventually completing 28-of-41 passes for 260 yards and an 8-yard touchdown to (Rookie Receiver) Xavier Worthy to put some distance between the two sides late in the third quarter. It was clear that his mobility was not an issue, as Houston only managed to sack him once, which is significant when you consider that the offensive line has been playing musical chairs in recent weeks due to a rash of injuries. As a team, the hosts totaled 375 yards of offense, outrushed their opponent 124-84, and won the takeaway battle 2-0, thanks to interceptions from (Defensive Backs) Isaiah McDuffie and Jaden Hicks. Worthy hauled in seven receptions on eleven targets for sixty-five yards, while also factoring into the ground game with another ten yards on three carries, with (veteran Tailback) Kareem Hunt amassing seventy-nine yards from scrimmage and a rushing score on thirteen touches. No controversial calls from the officials were present in this one, nor were there any inexplicably fortuitous gifts from their opponent, folks. This win was a clean, solid victory over a team that they may be seeing in the playoffs, which should calm their detractors, at least for one week anyway…
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may be a near-perfect 14-1 straight-up, but it has been a very different story against the spread (6-8-1), parlaying to a net loss of 2.55 units thus far. No team has won more games this season without covering the spread (8!), due in large part to being sizable favorites on many occasions; they are 1-6-1 ATS when favored by 5.5 or more points, including 0-5-1 ATS as favorites of seven or more points. Under the leadership of Reid, this is a franchise that is 116-97-4 versus the spread since he was hired back in 2013, including 58-40-1 ATS away from Arrowhead Stadium, 86-82-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 80-70-1 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 46-50 ATS versus opponent residing outside of the AFC West. As for Mahomes, over the course of his career he is 31-23-1 ATS on the road, 55-54-1 ATS as a favorite, 42-28-1 ATS following back-to-back SU wins, and 51-37 ATS versus non-division opposition, though it should be noted that his worst role has come as a road favorite (21-22-1 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs trail the all-time series between these two franchises (23-14 SU), though they have won each of the last three meetings dating back to 2018, which is when Mahomes took over as the starting QB. These sides last crossed paths in the 2022 wild card round of the playoffs, a 42-21 drubbing at Arrowhead in which the hosts were favored by 12.5 points. After a slow start in which they conceded a touchdown via a 26-yard fumble return, Kansas City put their foot on the proverbial gas pedal and ran off THIRTY-FIVE unanswered points, all of which were touchdown passes from Mahomes, to put the affair well out of reach for the visitors. Reid’s troops outgained Pittsburgh 478-257 in total yards, 406-215 through the air, 106-56 on the ground, 26-19 in first downs, and converted a healthy 8-of-12 third downs. Again, Mahomes was nothing short of sublime with 404 passing yards and FIVE touchdowns on 30-of-39 attempts, connecting with (longtime Tight End) Travis Kelce for five catches, 108 yards, and one of those scores. In three career meetings with the Steel Curtain, Mahomes is unbeaten in completing a surgical 78.3% of his throws for an average of 329.3 yards with FOURTEEN touchdowns in comparison to ZERO interceptions. With that in mind, the public is back the two-time MVP with approximately 55% of all wagers placed upon this afternoon’s spread picking the Chiefs. On the injury front, Reid has eight players occupying a spot on injured reserve, though did see the long-awaited return of (veteran Wideout) Marquise Brown, whom the team acquired in the offseason only to lose him to a broken collarbone during training camp. The 27-year-old caught five passes last weekend for forty-five in his debut with the club. As for the rest of the injury report, (Sophomore Cornerback) Chamarri Conner (concussion) and (veteran Tackle) D.J. Humphries (hamstring) are both out of action with various maladies, while (Pro-Bowl Defensive Tackle) Chris Jones was a late scratch due to a tender calf muscle. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will end the regular season with their annual pilgrimage to Mile High to battle the Broncos, whom they needed a blocked field goal at the death to defeat back in early November (16-14).
Meanwhile, things have gotten very interesting for the Steelers (10-5, 1st in AFC North), who despite clinching a return to the playoffs following their absence last January, need to get back on track lest they find themselves on the road for the duration of their postseason run. Indeed, after winning six out of seven games with the return of (veteran Quarterback) Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh has since dropped back-to-back games to the Eagles (27-13) and Ravens (34-17), placing them level with the latter within the division, with only their superior win percentage against the rest of the conference serving as the tiebreaker. Winning the AFC North will in all likelihood earn them the third seed, which would in turn spell a matchup with either the Chargers or Broncos, both of who they defeated earlier this season prior to Wilson taking over. However, if they happen to slip up in these next two games, then they it will be a wild card for (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin’s men, which means that they will be headed to either Buffalo, Baltimore, or Houston in the first round. Needless to say, their destiny lies in their own hands. This is why they made the move to Wilson (pictured below alongside Tomlin) back in October despite sitting at 4-2 under his predecessor, Justin Fields. After being unceremoniously released from Denver in the largest salary cap dump in NFL history, the 9-time Pro-Bowler’s search for redemption brought him to Western Pennsylvania, though a deep calf injury suffered in training camp sidelined him for months. However, despite their success on the field, the offense continued to stumble under Fields, prompting Tomlin to roll the dice on the former Super Bowl champion, which has been a gamble that has paid handsomely. Never mind prolonging his NFL record EIGHTEEN straight non-losing campaigns to begin a coaching career, the longtime taskmaster knew that the only way his troops could succeed in the playoffs was by making this switch; since a late October thumping of the Jets, the offense has responded with the 36-year-old at the helm, averaging 28.4 points per game during that 6-1 stretch on 372.2 total yards, including an improved 239.6 through the air with Wilson tossing a dozen touchdowns in comparison to three interceptions. However, as injuries have become to take their toll and the competition has increased, these last two performances have left a lot to be desired. In those aforementioned defeats to the Eagles and Ravens, the attack has plummeted back to 15.0 points per game on a meager 239.0 total yards, including just 152.5 through the air with three total turnovers. After getting bludgeoned at Philly, last weekend’s return leg at M&T Bank Stadium proved troublesome on many fronts, as Tomlin’s defense struggled to contain the host’s high-powered attack (418 total yards), while Wilson committed a pair of crucial turnovers that ultimately decided the game. First, Wilson lost control of the football scrambling nineteen yards towards the end zone with the score level at 7-7, eventually leading to a Ravens touchdown. Second, and this was the most impactful, he was intercepted just two plays after (veteran Safety) Minkah Fitzpatrick intercepted Lamar Jackson deep in Steelers territory, with Marlon Humphrey returning the latter of the two picks to the house to extend their lead to 30-17. When it was all said and done, Wilson completed 22-of-33 passes for 217 yards and a pair of touchdowns along with those two costly giveaways, with (young Tailback) Jaylen Warren amassing ninety-two yards from scrimmage on seventeen touches, while (Sophomore Wideout) Calvin Austin hauled in four receptions for sixty-five yards. Not to be overlooked, the defense has been pummeled against two very strong offenses, relinquishing 400+ yards in each of the last two contests. Philadelphia and Baltimore churned out 351 rushing yards, including a season-high 220 in the latter, potentially exposing some flaws in a unit that has suffered their share of losses due to injury.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Steelers, who are 10-5 both straight-up and against the spread thus far, parlaying to a net profit of 4.09 units. This is a team that has only failed to cover back-to-back games twice this season, stringing together SIX SUATS wins out of seven contests following the switch to Wilson at QB, though it should be noted that they have dropped each of their last two outings in each regard. Under the direction of Tomlin, this is a franchise that is 157-140-11 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2007, including 82-65 ATS at Acrisure Stadium, 60-36 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 58-44 when coming off a SU defeat, and 96-95 ATS versus all opponent residing outside of the AFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered six consecutive contests after shipping 150+ rushing yards in the previous game, while riding a streak of four straight covers at home. As for Wilson, the veteran QB is 55-46 ATS in his career at home, 43-25 ATS as an underdog, 16-5 ATS following back-to-back SU losses, and 70-62 ATS versus division opposition. Looking at this particular matchup, Pittsburgh may own a 23-14 edge in the all-time series, but hasn’t beaten Kansas City since 2017, dropping each of the last three encounters with Mahomes. As we detailed earlier, their most recent crossing of paths, that aforementioned 42-21 thumping at Arrowhead Stadium in the 2022 playoffs, was about as one-sided as it gets. In what was (longtime QB) Ben Roethlisberger’s final game with the franchise, the Steel Curtain was torn to shreds, shipping 478 total yards, including 406 through the air. The visitors punted on all seven possessions in the first half, five of which were three-and-outs, with their only points coming off a 26-yard fumble return courtesy of Watt. Big Ben went out throwing, with 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 29-of-44 passes, while (veteran Tailback) Najee Harris could muster just twenty-nine rushing yards on twelve carries, losing a fumble during the host’s blitzkrieg. The attack finally managed to find some rhythm with back-to-back touchdown drives between the third and fourth quarters, but at that point it was far too little, too late for Tomlin & Co. Over the course of his career, Wilson is 2-4 in six meetings with the Chiefs, completing 63.6% of his throws for an average of 187.8 yards on 5.56 net yards per attempt, with thirteen touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while rushing for another 273 yards and two more scores. He did lead his former employers to a 24-9 upset of Kansas City last Fall, tossing three scores in the victory. Perhaps the public remembers that performance, for while the majority of wagers placed upon the spread is favoring the defending champs, a commanding 73% of all money being wagered thus far is siding with Pittsburgh. On the injury front, Tomlin has eleven players laid out on injured reserve, including (Offensive Linemen) Nate Herbig, Troy Fautanu, and James Daniels. The defense could be shorthanded with the likes of (Safety) DeShon Elliott (hamstring), (Defensive Tackle) Larry Ogunjobi (groin), and (Cornerback) Donte Jackson (back) all limited throughout the abridged practice week and are this listed as questionable to participate in this afternoon’s affair. However, the team did receive an early holiday gift with the announcement that (young Receiver) George Pickens will finally return after missing the last two games with a strained hamstring. The Georgia product is the team’s most dangerous weapon in the passing game, hauling in fifty-five catches for 850 yards and three scores thus far, which is why Tomlin has gone out of his way to keep him out of his action until he is completely healthy. Looking ahead, the Steelers will conclude the regular season next weekend at home against the Bengals, which suddenly looks like a decisive game for both teams with plenty of postseason implications to boot.